Ponderosa8

J Mac for Verry Elleegant in the Cup.???

Recommended Posts

Chris Waller last season thought V.E was a year away from a Melbourne Cup, he said to look out next year.

I  don't think there's a better year to win it,  with the unorthodox leadup which goes against it's natural racing pattern it's been puzzling they went towards a cox plate, hopefully she has fitness and a will to win in the greatest race in the world, The Melbourne Cup.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3200m no problem. If you look at last year's race she was coming around field before the turn but on the turn she got a significant check or at least put off her run , so lost a length or so. But she got going again and was not that far behind the winner. Without the interruption, she may not have won, but would have easily been in the first 3, if not out right second.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Breeder said:

3200m no problem. If you look at last year's race she was coming around field before the turn but on the turn she got a significant check or at least put off her run , so lost a length or so. But she got going again and was not that far behind the winner. Without the interruption, she may not have won, but would have easily been in the first 3, if not out right second.

I think you are right. Just watched it again. Last year only really focused on Pof Aran as I backed it...as we know he charged into 3rd but VE was miles off them on the corner, and going at least as well as PoA at the post....Without the check who knows. 

Is she better this year? Is the field perhaps a touch weaker? Maybe Incentivise is that good....VE with Jmac has to be a top three chance though. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some very interesting betting options on the TAB this year…..

The Chosen One ran a great race last year and seems to going as well if not better this time…excusing that last run in the wet.

Incentivise and The Chosen One both to run Top 4 is  $11

Incentivise to Win and The Chosen One Top 4 a very enticing $19. ( Very Ellegant $8.50 )

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@Nerulaasked me on another thread about the two European raiders.

TWILIGHT PAYMENT is a known quantity having won last year. He's paid for that - last year he carried 8-10, this year he's on 9-2. He ran 3:17.34 when making every yard last year. Whether he can repeat the dose from stall 2 is debatable but he comes into the race in good form following a fine second in the Irish Leger and I know they seriously considered SONNYBOYLISTON for this race as well.

He's rated 117 in the UK, the same as SPANISH MISSION but the latter gets 2 lbs so you'd expect him to finish just in front. I like the barrier draw of 14 but does he have a turn of foot off a typical Aussie slow pace? That's my worry but his form stands up - third in the Ascot Gold Cup and a close second to STRADIVARIUS in the Lonsdale. As an aside, I'd have loved to have seen STRADIVARIUS take this race on - I think he'd have been tailor made for it and could have won it the last three years.

Of the ex-European gallopers, SIR LUCAN is rated 110 but was well held in the English Leger and to me he has a bit to find but as with Rewilding and Cross Counter, he has no weight but the 18 draw worries me. If he wins, this will be a poor race as he's nowhere near the same quality of horse either Rewilding or Cross Counter was.

PONDUS ran off 109 in the UK but is well exposed and again for all he ran okay in the Moonee Valley Cup, this is a different proposition.

I like Saturday's winner GREAT HOUSE as a 20/1 each way proposition and he's another with no weight and a decent draw.

He has a 4 lb pull for the five and a half lengths by which he was beaten by INCENTIVISE in the Caulfield Cup and in truth this race is all about INCENTIVISE. He's won the Makybe Diva and the Turnbull so he's clearly very good and the further he goes the better he gets. He's 6/4 over here which seems very short in a race where there is often traffic trouble but his form is head and shoulders above the other locals and the only question is whether he can beat SPANISH MISSION on levels. 

If this were a British run race, I'd suspect his stamina would be tested but in Australia, it's more like French racing - slow, quick, slow, slow, quick and as they stack up on the home turn at Flemington you want to be on one who you know will have the tactical speed to get track position. 

It seems INCENTIVISE has that speed in a way I'm not sure SPANISH MISSION does.

It will no doubt be, as always, a great race.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Presume that is Rekindling you are meaning…?

Wide open race if you want to oppose the $2.70 favourite Stodge.

Maher and Eustace have been the No 1 trainers of stayers from Europe and still might play a part if the fave doesn’t get the trip with 57kg, something only Makybe Diva has done in the past 40 years.

Grand Promenade ($14) has been in great form here, as has Floating Artist ($15) though you might not think them up to the higher weighted visitors.

Explosive Jack ($26) has been taken along very quietly this year after winning all the major Derbies as a three year old. Wouldn’t write him off completely with John Allen riding. Great Derby win with Hitotsu at the weekend.

Then we have Delphi, very impressive winning the Herbert Power on his ear, and dropping 3.5kg for this. Ollie sticking with him is a plus.

Waller has Verry Ellegant ($14) and Sydney Cup winner Selino ($41) - he will win this race sooner or later and both will run the trip.

The Chosen One is our best hope for mine and $26 is very tempting. Ran a great race last year in a much tougher field and going just as well. Damian Lane riding and they are taking the blinkers off which contributed to him pulling too hard at Caulfield. Better track will suit.

Whatever you stick your hard earned on, all the best……👍

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tough race this year...Incentivise looks tough to beat but breeding says he shouldn't stay however may just be a freak of a horse.

I like Spanish Mission although the hiccup is a concern, Twilight Mission will run well too...think Floating Artist and Delphi will be there when the whips are cracking.But a very open affair.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, scooby3051 said:

Tough race this year...Incentivise looks tough to beat but breeding says he shouldn't stay however may just be a freak of a horse.

I like Spanish Mission although the hiccup is a concern, Twilight Mission will run well too...think Floating Artist and Delphi will be there when the whips are cracking.But a very open affair.

Agree with those. Think Chosen One maps ok here, and the Lucan horse....could still miss the winner but fave looks unstoppable unless he has severe traffic issues. Persan perhaps fills a place. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm going to forgive The Chosen One his poor effort last start, but think the fav is a very good horse, just so easy in the Caulfield cup, Thought at the time he went early, but clearly superior. Delphi was a shocker last time along with The Chosen One, could they both turn it around? Tralee Rose 15 starts, 12 times in the $, a light weight. Good luck to all having a bet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Over here, INCENTIVISE has drifted to nearly 2/1 from 6/4 which in all fairness was very short.

The UK money has been for FLOATING ARTIST (9s from 14s) who was tipped up in the main racing newspaper this morning. Both DELPHI and PONDUS have bene cut from 25s to 14s and a little money for SIR LICAN.

I'm on GREAT HOUSE each way at SP so currently 22s with my bookie (20s and 25s in a place).

4am is a little on the nose for me so I'll try and catch a recording after breakfast and before work.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, stodge said:

Over here, INCENTIVISE has drifted to nearly 2/1 from 6/4 which in all fairness was very short.

The UK money has been for FLOATING ARTIST (9s from 14s) who was tipped up in the main racing newspaper this morning. Both DELPHI and PONDUS have bene cut from 25s to 14s and a little money for SIR LICAN.

I'm on GREAT HOUSE each way at SP so currently 22s with my bookie (20s and 25s in a place).

4am is a little on the nose for me so I'll try and catch a recording after breakfast and before work.

Delphi having vet inspection this morning after presenting with lameness in left foreleg.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

if incentivise had cover i reckon he would have gone within an inch of very elleegant not taking anything away though a super performance by both. i won the most ive ever had on the melb cup thanks to putting a huge bet on incentivise to place on the tote so very very happy had a few ew on veery ellegant to and spanish mission. i knew the horses at the bottom of the weights were no were near as good as last year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, mike28 said:

if incentivise had cover i reckon he would have gone within an inch of very elleegant not taking anything away though a super performance by both. i won the most ive ever had on the melb cup thanks to putting a huge bet on incentivise to place on the tote so very very happy had a few ew on veery ellegant to and spanish mission. i knew the horses at the bottom of the weights were no were near as good as last year.

Certainly paid the price for going forward from the wide draw, similar to floating artist both worked hard early, the artist had a better run with cover,  no excuses hard to see how anything would have beaten her, great for zed who's remarkable story of being on a hack station down south, along side St Reims who is buried there, zed still standing for a modest fee of 6k.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think James McDonald might possibly be our best ever rider.  His performance on Verry Ellegant was superb.

That, on top of four wins on the greatest day in horse racing, in the southern hemisphere.

I knew James McDonald was good, but I did not know he is THAT GOOD, until today.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've just seen the race.

The first thing that struck me is how the first four finished miles ahead of the rest - I've got a six length gap between the fourth and fifth according to the Racing Post and it may well be there wasn't a lot of strength in depth in the field and perhaps, dare I say it, missing five or six European challengers meant the field filled with inferior quality horses who in recent years wouldn't have got a run.

TWILIGHT PAYMENT was done at the start - missed it badly and was never in contention.

SPANISH MISSION ran a huge race in third - as I suspected, when push came to shove, he didn't have the turn of foot needed to win the Cup but acquitted himself very well. He finished half a length behind INCENTIVISE on levels so that makes the latter a very good horse and suggests the Australian and European stayers to be closely matched on quick ground. Our best currently, TRUESHAN, saves his running for much softer turf. 

The truth is SPANISH MISSION won over £300,000 for his connections by finishing third - that's nearly £100k than the value of winning the Ascot Gold Cup. Will he be back for another try next year? Not sure but once again others will look to his performance and the prize money and may decide to give it a go.

VERRY ELLEEGANT put up a dominant display and was an emphatic winner. I struggle to reconcile this with her third in the Cox Plate the other day - all I can think is she relished the quicker ground. If you think of her as a stayer, she'd be the best in the world on quick turf. Yet, at the same time, this is the same horse who just failed against ADDEYBB in the Queen Elizabeth II. 

ADDEYBB is a very good horse up here - rated 122. He disappointed in the Champion Stakes the other day but on his Eclipse run behind ST MARK's BASILICA and in front of MISHRIFF - you'd rate VERRY ELLEGGANT a solid 121 on that and she would, on that evidence, be an ideal candidate for a race like the Prince of Wales at Ascot or the Eclipse at Sandown.

FLOATING ARTIST was well tipped up before the race and ran a huge race for all he was getting lumps of weight from the first three and that's the thing I take from this - three quality horses, one able to bridge the gap thanks to the handicapper and the rest, frankly, dead wood barely deserving a place in the field. 

If that's the race you want, that's the race you're going to get - I do think the race quality is immeasurably strengthened by the European runners. Now, I'm NOT saying VERRY ELLEEGANT wouldn't have won even if more Europeans had been in the field - she was that good - but you wouldn't have had the yawning chasm between the cream and the milk. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.