WELL DONE LJ SHANNON ON WINNING THE FIRST ROUND OF THE TWO WEEK COMP.
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M Cup, what do ya reckon

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On 10/29/2020 at 10:18 AM, Pottsie said:

Do any of the experts on this site think that Verry Elleegant will get the distance ? Finishes the races of very fast, but the 2 miles could test the mare.

Any comments would be appreciated.

I'm no expert but I think VE is a big chance Tuesday. Classy multiple Grp 1 winner,, well weighted, in-form, handles all tracks (rain no problem) and has the 'will to win' written all over her, if you watch the Caulfield Cup replay the last 50m she had every right to cough it up but dug deep. Could she possibly be another Maybe Diva  in the making? Capable of winning over 1600m-2000m at wfa early in a prep and just gets better and better.. The thing I like most aout her is the ability to put in a very fast 200m sectional -that destructive 'turn of foot' that we saw in the CC. If she can 'go to sleep'/ switch off in the first 2400m of the Melbourne Cup ,she could brain 'em! If she pulls her head off, forget about it!

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16 hours ago, We're Doomed said:

Finche for me. Hasn't had much luck during his time in Oz.

finche has been unlucky agree with that. but look at last years melb cup had a good run pretty much on pace about 6th one out one back on a slow pace  and done not much .good place bet will pay about 4.50 on the day wouldnt back it to win though

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13 hours ago, weasel57 said:

I'm no expert but I think VE is a big chance Tuesday. Classy multiple Grp 1 winner,, well weighted, in-form, handles all tracks (rain no problem) and has the 'will to win' written all over her, if you watch the Caulfield Cup replay the last 50m she had every right to cough it up but dug deep. Could she possibly be another Maybe Diva  in the making? Capable of winning over 1600m-2000m at wfa early in a prep and just gets better and better.. The thing I like most aout her is the ability to put in a very fast 200m sectional -that destructive 'turn of foot' that we saw in the CC. If she can 'go to sleep'/ switch off in the first 2400m of the Melbourne Cup ,she could brain 'em! If she pulls her head off, forget about it!

It must be added that VE is the best at WFA in OZ but has been aimed at the big cups ( the cox plate on that wet track would have been at her mercy) now who would second guess Waller .VE  is the best local by a margin but some of the imports are carrying no weight ,but not that much less ( as NH3yos versus VE at WFA) than they will versus VE in the cup so she is fairly weighted against AVD at the top and others at the bottom but will need to be on top of her game.Last year vow and declare was rated 114 or 115 but carried up to 2kg less than other similarly rated horses so the locals can win with the right weight,  VE can win but a little rain would be a boost to her chances and they will all need a large slice of luck

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26 minutes ago, Nukkledragga said:

It must be added that VE is the best at WFA in OZ but has been aimed at the big cups ( the cox plate on that wet track would have been at her mercy) now who would second guess Waller .VE  is the best local by a margin but some of the imports are carrying no weight ,but not that much less ( as NH3yos versus VE at WFA) than they will versus VE in the cup so she is fairly weighted against AVD at the top and others at the bottom but will need to be on top of her game.Last year vow and declare was rated 114 or 115 but carried up to 2kg less than other similarly rated horses so the locals can win with the right weight,  VE can win but a little rain would be a boost to her chances and they will all need a large slice of luck

Have just done a quick tally of weights versus points( ignoring sex and age) compared to AVD at the top ,and sir dragonet comes out way above the rest followed by russian camelot, warning and tiger moth ,and then AVD and VE are level pegging BUT VE is a mare and the russian and tiger NH3yos and would normally get allowances, so will have to be very good indeed on cup day.So sir dragonet ,warning,AVD are top 3 all things being equal, if only it was that simple.

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Sticking with Surprise Baby , C Williams up and draws 7 , drew 20 last year and ridden like he had 2 Phar Laps inside him , track will be good , and has been set for this since last years cup . Only 2 runs since that cup , both crackers . I expect he will be ridden a lot closer than last year . All over him like a bad rash .

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We're a bit snobbish in the Northern Hemisphere about the Melbourne Cup though the prize money is nothing to sniff at in NH terms.

We compare it to 3200m handicaps like the Northumberland Plate but it's far more than that - it's basically your version of the Arc. The best horses from 1600m upwards all turn up in the great race and the winner is almost always a class act.

 This year's renewal is another quality offering so who wins?

I've gone through the eight European-trained challengers elsewhere and while I think two or three of them will go very close, I suspect this year the prize will stay in the southern hemisphere.

The two I like among the locals are SURPRISE BABY and FINCHE but I'm swayed toward the former.

MY three against the field (in your boxed exacta or whatever you lot call it):

SURPRISE BABY   ANTHONY VAN DYCK    TWILIGHT PAYMENT 

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44 minutes ago, stodge said:

We're a bit snobbish in the Northern Hemisphere about the Melbourne Cup though the prize money is nothing to sniff at in NH terms.

We compare it to 3200m handicaps like the Northumberland Plate but it's far more than that - it's basically your version of the Arc. The best horses from 1600m upwards all turn up in the great race and the winner is almost always a class act.

 This year's renewal is another quality offering so who wins?

I've gone through the eight European-trained challengers elsewhere and while I think two or three of them will go very close, I suspect this year the prize will stay in the southern hemisphere.

The two I like among the locals are SURPRISE BABY and FINCHE but I'm swayed toward the former.

MY three against the field (in your boxed exacta or whatever you lot call it):

SURPRISE BABY   ANTHONY VAN DYCK    TWILIGHT PAYMENT 

Finche is a handy “gunna” and one of whom I backed in last years Cup. Have you ever seen his front leg action from a head-on video? He throws his left leg way out to the left as though trying to “leg trip” his opponents. Very unusual. For that reason, I don’t think he’s good enough to beat a number of others. 

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23 minutes ago, Memphis2 said:

Poor ride on Prince of Arren. Had vested interest and couch jockey. 

Should  get lessons from Michelle 

Was with TCO at turn , then had 3 to 4 lengths to make up  on him at 200 and mowed him down ,  I had him as one of mine so bit gutted . Very sad to see AVD break down . Ballydoyle luck right out . At least Joseph won .

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8 hours ago, Trump said:

Finche is a handy “gunna” and one of whom I backed in last years Cup. Have you ever seen his front leg action from a head-on video? He throws his left leg way out to the left as though trying to “leg trip” his opponents. Very unusual. For that reason, I don’t think he’s good enough to beat a number of others. 

Plenty of leg throws racing around everywhere 

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Feel sad about AVD and to read articles post race it feels like the ones in power have been turning the page on facing serious issues. Not good enough.

https://amp.theage.com.au/sport/racing/horses-breaking-down-at-werribee-no-coincidence-says-leading-vet-20201028-p569hu.html?__twitter_impression=true

More has to be done, if we love our great game.

 

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could they move this race to ascot, newmarket or catterick., york or even newton abbott.... 

and concentrate on the really great races such as the golden slipper, the everest, golden eagle and kosciuskzo .

the melbourne cup belongs in europe now.

the crowds voted with their feet today , did you notice how sparse the crowd was compared to other years ?

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Red Rum said:

Was with TCO at turn , then had 3 to 4 lengths to make up  on him at 200 and mowed him down ,  I had him as one of mine so bit gutted . Very sad to see AVD break down . Ballydoyle luck right out . At least Joseph won .

Yes a tough watch. Perfect draw waited too long expecting leader to stop. Good lesson for her. Been riding well 

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Good to see Verry Ellegant run a good 3200m. A lot of people thought that she might struggle to get the distance. I agree that 2000-2400m is probably best for her. She ran in a very settled manner but quite a way back in the field most of the way. She got a decent check turning for home but still got out and ran on well. Would not have beaten the winner without the check but may have got a place.

I read where one of the owners has suggested going over to the Arc next year. That would be exciting for NZ/Aust racing.

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Just now, Breeder said:

Good to see Verry Ellegant run a good 3200m. A lot of people thought that she might struggle to get the distance. I agree that 2000-2400m is probably best for her. She ran in a very settled manner but quite a way back in the field most of the way. She got a decent check turning for home but still got out and ran on well. Would not have beaten the winner without the check but may have got a place.

I read where one of the owners has suggested going over to the Arc next year. That would be exciting for NZ/Aust racing.

Very interesting prospect if it happened.

She would be a 6-y-o mare if she came to Europe but both MAGICAL and ENABLE were still winning Group 1 races at that age. We know she goes on soft Australian turf but how would be go on Parisian Heavy? If it came up decent, she could run really well - on a line through ADDEYBB and MAGICAL she would have every right to be a big player at 2000-2400m races.

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