Owners to vote on Brightside rider

[Leggy 4,096]

And Pogo, I didn't say that barrier draws don't affect chance. I said that they do not do so significantly. By that, I mean not enough that I consider them when making my betting selections. I was originally questioning Peter RS's claim that they made a huge difference for which he now says he has no data. For those interested, there is some good Australian data, covering over 120,000 starters, in an article here: https://www.betfair.com.au/hub/education/racing-strategy/barrier-positions

That concludes:

1. The strike rate for inside barriers is better than outside barriers. However consider that on average, the benefit of drawing 1 to 3 compared to 12+ is only an extra 2 winners in every 100 races. That’s hardly so significant that it should dominate your thinking about a race.
2. The most important aspect from a betting perspective though isn’t strike rate, it’s how the market allows for that factor in its price for each horse and whether there is any advantage in the average betting returns. You can see from the above table that the profit on turnover percentage from inside barriers is virtually the same as middle barriers and that outside drawn barriers are much better. In fact, if you had backed every horse in a metro race up to $10 from barrier 12+ since 2011, you would have made a small profit, without doing any other analysis whatsoever.

The truth is that wide drawn horses are on average much better value in the market compared those drawn inside. Each track, race and horse is a case by case basis, but having a default bias against wide drawn horses is detrimental to the goal of making profitable betting decisions.

 

[Pam Robson 1,551]

I have to wade into this discussion,  but NOT from a betting perspective. 

Barriers definitely make a difference from the horse's point of view. 

Some horses dislike being in tight quarters, and for them, an inside draw is a disadvantage.  

Others can't manage to sit wide and do extra work, so outside draws don't suit at all.

Just depends. 

[TurnyTom 1,542]

11 hours ago, MissJools said:

Sorry, I can't help you.  I'm not a teacher.

But with your role at the TAB thought you would have some inside running

[nomates 3,609]

8 hours ago, Pure Steel said:

Oh dear.     this Leggy bloke has rattled Liz the Insider and she is annoyed he is Not Comp fodder old mate.

I've drawn Liz this week,  so feel like that is like that is same as drawing Barrier 22 this week after seeing this thread ,  and i'm gunna get caught 16 wide. 

those INSIDE insider draws bit of my league.   maybe Pogo n0  at the other end of the ladder can slip me a tip ? 

From that draw if you do decide to go forward , against recent pattern , then for gods sake get your breathing sorted out or there will be hell to pay afterwards on here .

[nomates 3,609]

6 hours ago, Leggy said:

And Pogo, I didn't say that barrier draws don't affect chance. I said that they do not do so significantly. By that, I mean not enough that I consider them when making my betting selections. I was originally questioning Peter RS's claim that they made a huge difference for which he now says he has no data. For those interested, there is some good Australian data, covering over 120,000 starters, in an article here: https://www.betfair.com.au/hub/education/racing-strategy/barrier-positions

That concludes:

1. The strike rate for inside barriers is better than outside barriers. However consider that on average, the benefit of drawing 1 to 3 compared to 12+ is only an extra 2 winners in every 100 races. That’s hardly so significant that it should dominate your thinking about a race.
2. The most important aspect from a betting perspective though isn’t strike rate, it’s how the market allows for that factor in its price for each horse and whether there is any advantage in the average betting returns. You can see from the above table that the profit on turnover percentage from inside barriers is virtually the same as middle barriers and that outside drawn barriers are much better. In fact, if you had backed every horse in a metro race up to $10 from barrier 12+ since 2011, you would have made a small profit, without doing any other analysis whatsoever.

The truth is that wide drawn horses are on average much better value in the market compared those drawn inside. Each track, race and horse is a case by case basis, but having a default bias against wide drawn horses is detrimental to the goal of making profitable betting decisions.

 

Don't suppose that you have a stat that would inform us of how many times you post quoting stats as against posting without a stats based reply .

Just curious . Get it ?

[pogo(aus) 887]

6 hours ago, Leggy said:

And Pogo, I didn't say that barrier draws don't affect chance. I said that they do not do so significantly. By that, I mean not enough that I consider them when making my betting selections. I was originally questioning Peter RS's claim that they made a huge difference for which he now says he has no data. For those interested, there is some good Australian data, covering over 120,000 starters, in an article here: https://www.betfair.com.au/hub/education/racing-strategy/barrier-positions

That concludes:

1. The strike rate for inside barriers is better than outside barriers. However consider that on average, the benefit of drawing 1 to 3 compared to 12+ is only an extra 2 winners in every 100 races. That’s hardly so significant that it should dominate your thinking about a race.
2. The most important aspect from a betting perspective though isn’t strike rate, it’s how the market allows for that factor in its price for each horse and whether there is any advantage in the average betting returns. You can see from the above table that the profit on turnover percentage from inside barriers is virtually the same as middle barriers and that outside drawn barriers are much better. In fact, if you had backed every horse in a metro race up to $10 from barrier 12+ since 2011, you would have made a small profit, without doing any other analysis whatsoever.

The truth is that wide drawn horses are on average much better value in the market compared those drawn inside. Each track, race and horse is a case by case basis, but having a default bias against wide drawn horses is detrimental to the goal of making profitable betting decisions.

 

without a shadow of a doubt barriers are one of  THE most important factors in assessing potential outcomes,  every race is different so looking at whether inside or outside barriers throw up more or less winners is totally irrelevant.

they make a HUGE difference to the potential outcome of races.

 

 

[Nerula 1,403]

The bottom line it was an ill judged ride. CW would have been aware of the fact Jenni always "jumps and runs." What was he thinking that she would stop so he could catch her. He could take note of J Mc on a good horse;       Get it out - Settle one out 4-6 back - Peel out top of the straight - Pick them up - Win!!!!!!!

[nomates 3,609]

17 minutes ago, Nerula said:

The bottom line it was an ill judged ride. CW would have been aware of the fact Jenni always "jumps and runs." What was he thinking that she would stop so he could catch her. He could take note of J Mc on a good horse;       Get it out - Settle one out 4-6 back - Peel out top of the straight - Pick them up - Win!!!!!!!

Easy peasy eh !

[Ponderosa8 1,365]

From RaceNet:

J-Mac wants inside draw for Switzerland in Golden Slipper

Just saying...

[scooby3051 10,976]

12 hours ago, Peter R S said:

NO, purely anecdotal, but I’m sticking with my observation.
Defies logic that the barrier has no effect.

Geez Pete you better be careful disagreeing with the self professed oracle who knows everything about everything and has superior knowledge to everyone on every subject...shame on you 

[scooby3051 10,976]

1 hour ago, pogo(aus) said:

without a shadow of a doubt barriers are one of  THE most important factors in assessing potential outcomes,  every race is different so looking at whether inside or outside barriers throw up more or less winners is totally irrelevant.

they make a HUGE difference to the potential outcome of races.

 

 

The most correct post you ever made here Pogo...Leggy if you think barriers are irrelevant you are kidding yourself...just saying.

[Ohokaman 5,850]

Some interesting comments here…..

 

Mr Brightside ran to 103.8 in finishing second to Pride Of Jenni, just below his 104.9 best from The Cox Plate last year and equal to the 103.8 he ran to win the 2023 All-Star Mile. There has been a lot of discussion about where he settled in the run, the connections pre-race desire for him to go forward in the early stages and whether that made a difference to the outcome of the race. My analysis says that Mr Brightside didn't win the race because he wasn't as fast as Pride Of Jenni over the 1600m trip, not because of the tactical choices made by Craig Williams. At their previous peak ratings, there was nothing between them. Pride Of Jenni went to a new level on Saturday (107.2) that Mr Brightside has never reached in his career.

In a speed rating sense, Mr Brightside travelled faster than ever in his career to the 600m mark. He wasn't poorly "paced" by Craig Williams—quite the opposite. He was well positioned relative to such a brutal early speed, especially given his previous speed profile.  Due to the frantic early speed, his sectional speed ratings (against standards) were progressively slowing from the 800m mark, as were all horses. Most importantly, his last 800m, 600m, 400m, and 200m weren't the fastest in the race. That belonged to Cascadian, who was 2-3L behind Mr Brightside at different points in the race. That tells me that Mr Brightside had the chance to run home faster if he could do it on the day. It wasn't physically impossible. Had he run home slightly faster than Cascadian over the final 800m and been the race fastest, he would have won the race in a photo. He couldn't run home as fast or faster than Cascadian because the impact of being 2-3L closer than that horse reduced his available energy.

It makes no sense for anyone to claim that settling 3,4,5 lengths closer in the run and using even more energy in the early stages would have somehow seen him run the 1600m over 2L faster than he did to beat Pride Of Jenni. That's not to say if he settled closer, he would have produced a lower rating performance; he may have gone fractionally better; we don't know. However, it defies logic developed by analysing hundreds of thousands of past horse performances in the context of early speed, late speed and position in the running to suggest that if he settled closer to that brutal speed, he would have run two lengths faster overall.

While Pride Of Jenni won their battle on Saturday, that's not to say Mr Brightside can't turn the tables in the future. By definition, the spike that Pride Of Jenni produced on Saturday is a level of performance that is likely not to be matched every run in her career. Mr Brightside is an incredibly consistent talent. He puts up a level that takes some beating every start. It just happened on this day that Pride Of Jenni beat his mark, by clearly exceeding her previous best. That doesn't mean she'll be able to do it next time. She has the talent edge on this peak rating now, but on their general level of form, they are very evenly matched.

[MissJools 508]

3 hours ago, TurnyTom said:

But with your role at the TAB thought you would have some inside running

I do wish that you arseholes would get through your extremely thick head, that I DON'T WORK AT THE TAB, AND I NEVER WILL!!!!

 

[Leggy 4,096]

Unfortunately Ohokaman, that article was written by the same bloke - Daniel O'Sullivan - as the article on barrier draws that I posted above so I doubt it will hold much sway with many on here.

[Pure Steel 1,303]

Mr Brightside was well and truly turned over (along with the gutsy Alligator Blood) when those 2 were favoured to beat Jenni in the Big Nov Group 1 mile at Flemington.

Jenni burned them off with a solid front running display in the CANTALA then , Up the long Flemington Straight. and she held them easy . Just like ASM . 

She is amazing racing like that really .Barrier irrelevant in her case....... great to see a good old fashioned front runner at that level again. . 

[scooby3051 10,976]

16 minutes ago, Leggy said:

Unfortunately Ohokaman, that article was written by the same bloke - Daniel O'Sullivan - as the article on barrier draws that I posted above so I doubt it will hold much sway with many on here.

Most it will just not the curious oh great one leggy.

[nomates 3,609]

59 minutes ago, MissJools said:

I do wish that you arseholes would get through your extremely thick head, that I DON'T WORK AT THE TAB, AND I NEVER WILL!!!!

 

Please can you sort out your singulars and plurals , is it one thick head with a number of arseholes or a number of arseholes all connected to one thick head , much appreciated .

[Ponderosa8 1,365]

3 hours ago, pogo(aus) said:

without a shadow of a doubt barriers are one of  THE most important factors in assessing potential outcomes,  every race is different so looking at whether inside or outside barriers throw up more or less winners is totally irrelevant.

they make a HUGE difference to the potential outcome of races.

 

 

Agree that every race is different, and for me the barrier draw is just one factor in the equation, it also depends on the horse and its normal racing pattern, the course, the horse's form going left-handed vs right-handed and the track conditions on the day.

e.g., connections would "normally" hate drawing 18 at Rosehill in the Golden Slipper, but would the same connections hate drawing 18 in the 3yo Coolmore down the straight-six at Flemington... 

So the barrier draw... it all depends.

 

 

[Ponderosa8 1,365]

BREAKING NEWS:

Craig Wiliams confirmed as the rider of Mr Brightside in the Australian Cup.

Also, didnt realise that "he had ridden Mr Brightside in 28 of his 32 starts, posting 14 wins, including five at Group 1 level and three in Group 2 company"

[Memphis3 1,267]

2 hours ago, nomates said:

Easy peasy eh !

And JMac was very sympathetic of the ride. Along with D Oliver and Zahra. They would have some sort of idea n0

[Ohokaman 5,850]

2 hours ago, Leggy said:

Unfortunately Ohokaman, that article was written by the same bloke - Daniel O'Sullivan - as the article on barrier draws that I posted above so I doubt it will hold much sway with many on here.

Probably. The simple fact is Jenni ran to a rating Brightside never has, that’s why she won.

The Australian Cup over further might be a different story. 

Ladbrokes Pre nom betting….

 

Australian Cup 2000m (Pre-Noms)

March 30, 2024

Mr Brightside

$3.30 $1.58

Pride Of Jenni

$6.00 $2.25

Gold Trip

$7.00 $2.50

Atishu

$9.00 $3.00

Riff Rocket

$9.00 $3.00

Legarto

$9.00 $3.00

Cascadian

$9.00 $3.00

Young Werther

$13 $4.00

Campionessa

$15 $4.50

Buckaroo

$15 $4.50

Vow And Declare

$15 $4.50

Ashrun

$21 $6.00

Foxy Cleopatra

$21 $6.00

Yonce

$26 $7.25

Valiant King

$26 $7.25

Victoria Road

$26 $7.25

Unspoken

$26 $7.25

Detonator Jack

$26 $7.25

Pericles

$26 $7.25

Apulia

$26 $7.25

Sheraz

$31 $8.50

Makram

$31 $8.50

Carini

$51 $14

Hoo Ya Mal

$51 $14

Huetor

$51 $14

Future History

$51 $14

Mostly Cloudy

$51 $14

Nonconformist

$51 $14

Selino

$51 $14

[MissJools 508]

[Bimbo 734]

3 hours ago, nomates said:

He could take note of J Mc on a good horse;       Get it out - Settle one out 4-6 back - Peel out top of the straight - Pick them up - Win!!!!!!!

Fangirl

[Pete Lane 639]

2 hours ago, MissJools said:

I do wish that you arseholes would get through your extremely thick head, that I DON'T WORK AT THE TAB, AND I NEVER WILL!!!!

 

Is that you Aidan?

[Pete Lane 639]

Can any barrier draw afficionados explain to me why four horses have won the Slipper from barrier 14 and only 2 from barrier 2.

And why five winners have come from barrier 10?

I'll be interested in the explanations.

Update: these figures are only up to 2013.