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chiknsmack last won the day on December 18 2018

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About chiknsmack

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    R91 - not quite Grp level

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    Palmerston North

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  1. Rubbish again. Might be worth doing your own form, checking if I'm on something you like, and only backing the ones I'm not on. 28u out, 13u in, 15u loss (54%).
  2. 6 9 Bigtime Fred 1u/3u $11/$3 7 1 Bigtime Sam 2u $6.50 8 5 Millie Prince 3u $6 8 2 Manimal 3u $9.50 9 2 Bigtime Maci 3u $3.30 9 7 Sedgebrook Comet 1u $4.50 10 3 Go Blue 7u $2.30 11 5 Grunty Mama 2u $4.20 12 6 Idol Meghan 3u $2.80 Bigtime Fred is down in trip but can go with these over the 305m. Bigtime Sam is on the downgrade and is second-up since lockdown, so will be better for the first-up run. Millie Prince and Manimal are both overs on the downgrade. Manimal is fresh up, which may help him jump (and if he jumps he’ll take some catching). Taking on the $2.10 fave Idol Ziggy; he’s obviously a strong chance and I tossed up between 3u on each of two or 2u on each of three for a bit of insurance. Bigtime Maci is down in trip which is a query (I have no idea why she isn’t going 520m again and I’d much prefer her over further) but has a good chance. Saving on Sedgebrook Comet who has talent but doesn’t always show it. Homebush Jennia has done nothing in three starts since lockdown but also has some ability. Go Blue has been flying since lockdown and probably leads. Dino the Fox on the downgrade is the obvious danger but there’s not much to be made in backing them both. Grunty Mama hasn’t been seen for three weeks which is a query, but is up to these. Not sure what to make of the favourite. Idol Meghan wins if she leads in the last, but she’s missed away the past two. It’s quite a nice field; Free Thinker and Cockney Rip Off are going well, Justa Gift seems to be rounding into some form after plummeting from open class all the way to c1, Viking Ash is always a chance and the ace draw helps, even Zara Daiken at $26 has some chance.
  3. Rubbish. 37u out, 23.15 in, 13.85u loss (37.4%). Below-average luck; maybe we'll do better at Palmy on Tuesday.
  4. 1 8 Allegro Lanie 3u $1.65 2 1 Bigtime Brody 3u $5 2 6 Big Time Seth 2u $2.60 4 8 So Severe 1u $12 4 8 So Severe (Place) 1u $3.20 5 7 Big Time Eden 2u $2.80 6 8 Big Time Baby 3u $2.80 7 2 Big Time Fairy 2u $4 8 3 Trojan Hoarse 4u $1.45 9 6 Idol Meghan 5u $3 9 7 Allegro Fern 3u $2.70 10 1 Softy Burgess 2u $1.60 12 1 Big Time Angel 6u $2.60 Trojan Hoarse and Softy Burgess are getting a bit short for me, though they should both win. The TAB are offering $2.60 for the double (fair price right now is $2.32) which is worth a punt. Instead of 6u across the pair of them maybe 5u on that double is the bet. That option is here: I can’t catch Allegro Lanie; I decided I’d finally had enough of her lto so of course she won. I do think the outside draw will help. Bigtime Brody may be a touch weak late, so might be worth backing each way 1x2 (I’ve decided to save on Seth instead). So Severe is big overs and may well lead even from the wide draw. Eden, Baby, and Fairy are each dogs I have on top at fine prices. Idol Meghan is better than Allegro Fern but is less reliable from the boxes. Either Meghan jumps and wins, or she doesn’t jump and gives Allegro Fern basically a vacant box to her inside. 8U on the pair, though I could even go a touch bigger (or just add 1u on Fern so I make more of a profit on her instead of just breaking even at the 5u/3u split). Big Time Angel is the bet of the night, though she’s high-risk from the lids. If she jumps whe wins like a $1.40 shot, if not then literally anything could win.
  5. Had $2 on it. Looked good in the yard, blinkers on first time (though it had actually worn blinkers here). Wasn't my main bet in the race, but was my best result. Longest priced winner at HV in the "professional era", however long that goes back. There was one longer at Sha Tin in recent times though.
  6. Here's the link which is being updated each day with that day's form guide.
  7. How good are these new formguides? Forget about form comments from some random stranger, now we have a guide that tells us how fast a dog jumped, whether it ran in or out, whether it got checked, and more. The five fastest recent runs at the course and distance are highlighted, races not at the course and distance are greyed out so you can focus on the most relevant races, the box record of each dog for the box they're jumping from today is highlighted (particularly handy for dogs in off the ballot). Sure, you can't just read that somebody thinks the 4 will win and back it because they say so (though the commentator's top 4 picks in each race are given, if you're into just blindly following someone). But punting is supposed to be a puzzle and a mental exercise where, if you do well, you can make money. Well done to the TAB/GRNZ/whoever else was involved in making these new, better formguides happen. Giving punters more info to help them solve the puzzle is FAR more important than giving them comments from someone who may or may not know what they're on about.
  8. For those who don't know, clicking "Futures & Challenges" at the top of the page take you to markets for future races, and for other unorthodox bet types ("Challenges": which Jockey/Driver/Rug will score the most points based on a 3/2/1 points for 1st/2nd/3rd system, as well as other bets like doubles that pay out more than a multi would (eg. two $1.50 shots to win offered at odds of $2.60 instead of the fair price of 1.5x1.5=$2.25) and markets on how many races a certain jockey/trainer will win at a meeting. The rugs challenge is available on every meeting and is a favourite of the guys at FormPro because it's an easy way to have an interest in a whole meeting, the market can offer some initial value that individual markets don't, and the market will change throughout the day (after each race) based on earlier results. There can be a situation where you think a certain rug will do well in the first few races, while another rug will do poorly early but has some good chances later on. In this case you can back the rug you think will do well early before the first, then wait a few races for the other one to drift before backing it and getting good value on both rugs. The "generous doubles" aren't available on every meeting, but are worth looking out for. The bookies try to find two shorties who they think have question marks over them, but that little extra bit of juice the bookies add to the odds can make it worthwhile for punters.
  9. Just bumping this thread up because this is good stuff and, with us being locked down and having no domestic product to bet on, there's a chance to make some money with these form guides.
  10. This is really good stuff. Well done and thanks for sharing.
  11. It's standard worldwide for returns from bonus bets to not include the stake. It's a "free bet" in that you put $30 on the Blues and none of your own money on Kolding but still had bets on both the Blues and Kolding. You got a bet on the Blues to make $X profit and, when that lost, the TAB let you have a bet on Kolding to win $Y profit at no further cost ("for free"). Now, if you win a free bet from a TAB promotion like the current Match Three, THAT bet will return the stakes as well as the profit. So you can put your $5 free bet on something at $1.02 and turn it into $5.10 cash you can withdraw. It's been like that for years with those bets and, intentional or not, it's generosity from the TAB that you'll struggle to find from any of the corps.
  12. chiknsmack

    What a dag

    Seven or eight years back I was recording race replays from Manawatu off Freeview Trackside onto a thumb drive, editing them down into individual races, then manually adding the race results and videos to GData. I spoke to GData (Gunnar or Tony, can't remember) about getting results and GData ratings added automatically like they are for the UK & Ireland, and they said they needed a way to access the results data, ideally in a particular format, which required the help of the governing body. I put this to GRNZ (along with one of my many whinges about why they couldn't add race videos to the GRNZ site; my pet peeve at the time) and it was apparently getting passed along up the chain, but nothing ever came of it. There may be a small question around intellectual property rights; would GRNZ give rights to publish historical data to GData for free when RITA/NZRB are looking to charge overseas betting providers for the right to publish racefields? But I see them as different things; GData won't be making direct profit from publishing past results whereas bookies make direct profit from publishing future fields and taking bets on them. The difference between publishing past results and publishing future fields is a major one IMO (basically one has quite a bit of value we should be capturing and one doesn't), but it's not *quite* as simple as saying "This might boost overseas interest in domestic racing, which might boost turnover, which would help with stakes and the overall health of the industry, so we should just do it.". So it might take a couple of phone calls and a couple of weeks of thinking, but hopefully it happens sooner than later. I know that's not the point you were making, just thought I'd share my thoughts.
  13. Hero - out of Domino - is the first horse that comes to mind when I think of frontrunners from when I was a kid.