say no more

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say no more last won the day on October 23

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  1. Yeah I agree. I had three of my four best bets at Trentham and I figure, as Littletramp said, that's just the rub of the green.
  2. Matamata Race 1: 10 Matamata Race 2: 1 Matamata Race 3: 8 Matamata Race 4: 7 Matamata Race 5: 3 Matamata Race 6: 9 Matamata Race 7: 15 Matamata Race 8: 9 BB Matamata Race 9: 5 Trentham Race 1: 14 Trentham Race 2: 6 Trentham Race 3: 1 Trentham Race 4: 7 BB Trentham Race 5: 1 Trentham Race 6: 3 Trentham Race 7: 16 Trentham Race 8: 1 BB Trentham Race 9: 3 BB Thanks Scooby and Paul
  3. I enjoy these lay types of competition - a great risk reward comp to mess with your mind. Here's a slightly interesting but mostly useless piece of expected return analysis that guides my thinking. If you work on the assumption that the tote market is a perfect guide to each horse's probability of winning, and you assume that the tote takeout is 15% then you can work out the probability that a horse paying a certain dividend will win (and therefore the probability that it will lose). eg. a horse paying $2 to win has a 42.5% chance of winning and a 57.5% chance of losing. Multiplying
  4. Ever think the problem might have been the 4kg claimer and the ability to judge pace and know when to put a horse into a race? I tend to not back them as a rule and particularly in the summer-time. 4kgs is nice but it's there for a reason and often it comes at a higher cost. Yep of course they'll win races from time to time (eg. the last race today) but the strike rate in this case is not great.
  5. Brilliant work once again Paul - thank you - I did my best not to trouble you too much by picking too many winners throughout the comp and thanks Scooby for sponsoring the comp and the generous prizes. Great to see such a high turnout for the entire course of the competition.
  6. Te Rapa Race 5: 9/12 Riccarton Race 6: 3/7 Riccarton Race 8: 3/6 Riccarton Race 10: 4/7 BB Rosehill Race 8: 7/8 Flemington Race 2: 2/4 Flemington Race 4: 13/17 BB Flemington Race 5: 12/14 Flemington Race 6: 2/9 Flemington Race 7: 3/7 Flemington Race 8: 7/9 Thanks Paul & Scooby
  7. Flemington Race 3: 5/11 Flemington Race 5: 14/15 Flemington Race 6: 14/15 BB Flemington Race 8: 3/7 Flemington Race 9: 8/9 BB Thanks Paul & Scooby
  8. Yep that is exactly what they do. It's not a win multi plus a place multi.
  9. Outstanding as always Paul - thank you! Glad to see team Phar Lap climb two places out of the cellar (no thanks to me). One more to get out of the relegation zone
  10. Looks ok to me. Quinella plus win & place dividends was worth $141.60 and your score went up by this amount.
  11. Four horse multi each way gives you 16 bets. If your horses finish 1st, 3rd, 1st and 2nd then only four of those 16 multis would come in.
  12. Te Rapa Race 6: 4/8 Flemington Race 1: 3/7 Flemington Race 4: 6/7 Flemington Race 7: 5/21 BB Flemington Race 8: 2/5 Flemington Race 9: 7/8 Flemington Race 10: 4/15 BB Thanks Paul & Scooby
  13. Not sure. Noticed it close to start time and wasn't near a TAB to put a bet on. Hopefully they weren't accepting bets after the field went down to four runners and then paying them out as refunds.