SORRY FOR THE OUTAGE WE TRANSFERRED TO A NEW SERVER...HOPE ALL GOOD NOW.
John Clydesdale

Capital Value Disappearing

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The times, they are a changing. Besides showing my age with that opening, I am really disappointed to see that the investment value of the industry is rapidly disappearing in broodmares. Times we live in require delivery in an instant. If you do not have a black type delivery broodmare, then you are going to be under the pump. She has to be a stakes horse herself for a potential ROI on her first three foals, if she is a half to a stakes winner, then you are struggling to warrant the investment of a suitable stallion mating. Anything else as a base criteria means your broodmare has tangible emotional meaning to you, and you have some other means to make it sustainable, or you live in hope that what you have in the paddock is superior to anything else she has produced. The proposition is still the same as years gone by, is what we put in over capitalising the mare?.....................(This is in no way a shot at the real capital investors, the stallion owners, who know the odds before they start the purchase process)  cheers to all............ John 

 

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Generally I always ask would you buy what you breed.  If your answer is 'No' then best to get out (unless you have tested with a few on the ground and they have proven your eye is rubbish).  If it is 'Yes' then keep going and see if you are right.  Breeding is the easy part (not financially of course) but I have found people have rose coloured glasses when it comes to the actual reality of what their 'champions' can do.  Culling is the hardest part, and even harder when its your own.  Good Luck

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Agree with the comment that “would you buy (or race) what you are breeding”. Breed what you cant afford to buy (or would pay overs for) otherwise why are you doing it (from a commercial aspect) as you would be better off buying a horse when you want one. Spec days are largely over!

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11 hours ago, Dopey said:

Agree with the comment that “would you buy (or race) what you are breeding”. Breed what you cant afford to buy (or would pay overs for) otherwise why are you doing it (from a commercial aspect) as you would be better off buying a horse when you want one. Spec days are largely over!

..unless of course you are bored at home on a Monday night and fancy a gavelhouse flutter.

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Gavelhouse Is going to have a lot on their books now.  With the cancellation of the weanling sale and South Island sale.  What will the studs do with all of them or will it just be a big cull?  It looks like they are going to cut stakes as well so a rethink of who is worth sending back to the trainer is something I am going to have to consider!  Also I doubt my mares are going to any stallions this year.  Its getting really quite difficult.

 

 

Edited by Tropical
bad grammar

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Slightly off topic but whats the view on stallion service fees this year.

I suspect that other than the big studs and "commercial breeder" most might give the season a miss and leave mares empty.

Impact on foal crop could be huge.

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56 minutes ago, Tropical said:

Gavelhouse Is going to have a lot on their books now.  With the cancellation of the weanling sale and South Island sale.  What will the studs do with all of them or will it just be a big cull?  It looks like they are going to cut stakes as well so a rethink of who is worth sending back to the trainer is something I am going to have to consider!  Also I doubt my mares are going to any stallions this year.  Its getting really quite difficult.

 

 

it's going to take some innovation by a stud or NZTBA(not going to happen)  to get mare numbers at a decent level. The most important thing going forward is going to be participation levels, both racing and breeding to find a way to resurrect the industry. Unfortunately I think the smaller breeder is going to be fair kicked in the guts as the next step will surely be the Messara Report on Steroids. 

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On 3/30/2020 at 11:37 AM, Dopey said:

Agree with the comment that “would you buy (or race) what you are breeding”. Breed what you cant afford to buy (or would pay overs for) otherwise why are you doing it (from a commercial aspect) as you would be better off buying a horse when you want one. Spec days are largely over!

I don't get this "breed what you can't afford to buy" in most cases you'd probably be better off not paying the stud fee and waiting to pick up a similar horse for 20% of stud fee with 18 months worth of costs already paid. I'm looking at a 5k stud fee this year, no way I'll pay that in this environment but what I can breed I can probably buy for $1k on GH in 18 months not much different  if I go to a $10k stallion either. 

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6 hours ago, Kingshill said:

Lot 56 - Flying Spur mare.

Smart buying Kingshill. She was cheap even considering the market.

In regard to service fees it depends on their real value for money rather than hyped up perception. Some will have to adjust down but it won't be dramatic unless the sires was already on the way down. 

A few stallions are young with oldest being 2yos and 3yos and appear to have upside based on track results.  My guess is that if the service fees don't increase that the leading first season and second season sires will do quite well on numbers served.

Don't forget what it costs to leave a mare empty. There is a lost opportunity in commercial value for the mare and other progeny on the ground if the mares is not served.

Once lockdown in Australia is over and normality resumes they should quickly return to great prize money right on our doorstep and the demand for the right horses.

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4 minutes ago, Nasrullah said:

 

Once lockdown in Australia is over and normality resumes they should quickly return to great prize money right on our doorstep and the demand for the right horses.

Those type of mares aren't really being left empty though are they, its the making up of the numbers that is the concern i.e. smaller breeder , without them numbers will be very low.

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13 hours ago, Huey said:

I don't get this "breed what you can't afford to buy" in most cases you'd probably be better off not paying the stud fee and waiting to pick up a similar horse for 20% of stud fee with 18 months worth of costs already paid. I'm looking at a 5k stud fee this year, no way I'll pay that in this environment but what I can breed I can probably buy for $1k on GH in 18 months not much different  if I go to a $10k stallion either. 

I understand  with what you are saying but I guess what I’m saying is... if the mix of caliber of mare and stallion you bred to is worth more than what it costs you - then you have paid unders. So if you breed a good mare and have a nice product then it would  cost you more if you went to buy it at a sale... so worth doing.

We are not talking about non-stakes performed mares or I agree with your logic. 

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On ‎4‎/‎2‎/‎2020 at 10:04 AM, Patiti said:

I think you will see a dramatic tumble in service fees right across the board.

Super Seth at $35,000  !!:rcfe-surprise: Seems pretty high for these times!

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I am thinking of leaving my 'barely mediocre' mares empty this year and just to clear what I have on the ground first.  Its just getting too expensive, float, vets etc...and then I will reassess next year.  And if stakes drop I shall be retiring my 2 x 3yr olds to the show scene and the other one can go to Oz.  The two year old boy can go in to a trainer (possible sales project) and my yearling boy can get broken in and be out to perform this time next year.  Hopefully I can get a result (sale) and then the mares might get another go.  Interest is waning though.

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22 hours ago, Tropical said:

I am thinking of leaving my 'barely mediocre' mares empty this year and just to clear what I have on the ground first.  Its just getting too expensive, float, vets etc...and then I will reassess next year.  And if stakes drop I shall be retiring my 2 x 3yr olds to the show scene and the other one can go to Oz.  The two year old boy can go in to a trainer (possible sales project) and my yearling boy can get broken in and be out to perform this time next year.  Hopefully I can get a result (sale) and then the mares might get another go.  Interest is waning though.

Feel for you , made same decisions beginning of last year , nothing left now . Bloody tough looking out at my paddocks and seeing nothing in them . Cut hay before xmas and now got a couple of neighbours cattle grazing till winter . Looking at present situation i am glad i did . Still get twitchy fingers watching gavelhouse auctions tho . Could have bought my 3 weanling picks for 5k . But have no faith things will improve so definitly made correct decision .

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On 4/27/2020 at 5:49 PM, Tropical said:

Yeah I'm going alright though.  Its a side hobby and I do love the 'Jennifer Eccles' story of course.  But you got to look at the bottom dollar in the end 'I never really have till now' and you start to realise, it ain't as much fun anymore!!

It’s not fun loosing money 

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On 4/26/2020 at 5:44 PM, Redoute's Choice said:

How many mares will Super Seth likely cover that are WS and shareholder mares? 

I think a better question would be; How many mares will Super Seth serve other than WS or shareholders?

At $35,000 + gst, my guess is almost nil.

I am not knocking the horse, simply the fee that they are asking the smaller breeder to pay in this climate. 

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