Nasrullah

Thanks. Couple of comments. How the thoroughbred started off 350 years ago and what is has now evolved into I suspect is quite different. I think Berri is pointing out that Galileo works well with fast Danzig blood rather saying inbreeding is the answer. Sadlers Wells and Danzig while both being sons of Danehill were very different in type. Further you might want to look at the Truenicks site. Eg- Galileo with Danehill mares is A+ meaning much higher percentage of SW than the sireline ( Galileo ) with other mares ( non Danehill), and higher than the broodmare sireline ( Danehill ) with other sirelines (non Galileo sires). As a comparison Galileo and his sons mated with mares by Sadlers Wells and his sons and grandsons is Rated an F.

Perception and reality can be very different and best to analyse a large data set than base a conclusion on a winners of a few big races! Recent US story on outcrossing- If the definition of an inbred horse is one that has at least one duplicated ancestor between the parents within four generations, then an outcrossed one has no closely duplicated ancestors at all. The majority of the breed is outcrossed, which should relieve the fear that the Thoroughbred is overrun with irresponsible and debilitating inbreeding. It is not. The limited study in last month’s review of inbreeding used winners of the Triple Crown races and 3-year-old male division champions since 2000. Of that very small group of 39 individuals, 15 were inbred (38.5%) and 24 were outcrossed (61.5%). Among the great sires in Kentucky, outcrosses also dominate. In 2014, 16 stallions stood for a fee of $50,000 or more—our proven, elite sires. Of those, 13, or 81.3%, were the result of outcross matings, a serious majority. Studies suggest this is a rough reflection of the population, in that anywhere from 60% to 75% of modern Thoroughbreds, are outcrossed. Is this simply a matter of random population genetics, or is there an advantage to outcrossing? In a mating each parent contributes half of the genetic code, with a wide range of results. In some cases both parents pass on similar genetics, creating a horse that is pure dominant or pure recessive for those traits. This is what’s supposed to happen in an inbreeding program, striving to intensify the genetics so they will be passed on with great predictability. In other cases genes from one parent will outrightly dominate the other parent’s. This is what has happened when we say a horse is prepotent or “stamps his get.” In a third scenario the parents’ genetics will blend to create something in between. This is what most breeders hope will happen, but rarely does, getting the perfect balance. Depending on the differences between the parents, it can be a real crap shoot. In a fourth scenario there is so much favorable genetic diversity coming from either side that the offspring is superior than both parents. This is heterosis, or hybrid vigor, resulting from a high number of heterozygous gene pairings instead of the homozygous pairings often found in inbred stock. It is the Holy Grail of horse breeding because, although racing ability is highly heritable, actual genetic improvement is hard to achieve. Consider that even the greatest stallions sire only 5% to 15% stakes winners and few throw a runner better than themselves. This is also the possibility that comes from outcrossing. Inbreeding concentrates an ancestor’s genes, but every generation forward, that influence is diminished by roughly half. Inbreeding 4x4 to Northern Dancer is only maintaining the influence he had in the third generation of each parent. Unless the inbreeding is very close, say 2x2 or 3x3, it isn’t really effective in intensifying that great ancestor’s influence. The 4x4 standard many of us use to define it is probably not very significant in actual practice, and 3x3 might be a better the standard. Now, take an inbred horse, and cross it with an unrelated one, and the possibility of creating that super-vigorous mix of genes increases dramatically. Inbreeding can create better breeding stock, which is ideal for this very purpose, but outcrossing is more effective in creating a better athlete. Alternating these strategies every generation or two is a highly desirable formula. Look at the pedigrees of some of the greatest racehorses of modern times:Secretariat, Nijinsky II, Seattle Slew, Spectacular Bid, Affirmed,Cigar,Curlin,Zenyatta, Brigadier Gerard, Frankel, and Sea The Star, for instance. The majority of these are outcrosses. Of this small group, only Seattle Slew (4x4 Nasrullah), Spectacular Bid (3x3 To Market), and Frankel (3x4 Northern Dancer) are inbred using the 4x4 definition. This tendency for great runners to be outcrossed might also explain why many of these superstars are tagged as disappointments as stallions or broodmares. Everyone hopes they will breed true, but their extreme genetic engineering makes it hard for them to pass on their qualities with consistency. Few of them take a leading sire title, like Seattle Slew, who was actually one of the rare ones inbred by the 4x4 definition, although many of them still make a serious mark. If you need convincing, consider a breeder whose program focuses on favorable outcrossing. Adena Springs, or the farm’s owner Frank Stronach, has won the Eclipse Award for leading breeder eight times.

2019 New Season stallions Roaring Lion by Kitten's Joy Timeform Rated 130. Service Fee $35,000 +GST US Navy Flag by War Front Timeform Rated 124. Service fee $20,000 +GST Staphanos by Deep Impact Timeform Rated 123. Service fee $7,000+GST Summer Passage by Snitzel Timeform Rated 117. Service Fee $8,000+GST Jon Snow by Ifraaj Timeform Rated 117. Service fee $6,000+GST Embellish by Savabeel Timeform Rated 107. Service fee $5,000+GST Howard Be Thy Name by Redoute's Choice Timeform 106. Service fee $5,000+GST Ardrossan by Redoute's Choice Timeform Rated 99. Service fee $8,000+GST

Interesting horse. Did have his last three starts in Australia and did nothing but may have had some issues.

Zacinto Timeform 126. Will look up Per Incanto but my understanding was he was a freak in Italy but the form there is hard to grade. Then he went to England after Shadwell paid huge money for him and got sick. Agree with you that Deep Impact's are not Aussie 2yo types. They a 3yo 1400+ types.

Byron , can you also confirm the tail line of Galopin is still 3i have these changes been updated on data sets world wide?

While I agree with Huey a stallion can come out of anywhere I see a high Timeform as an insurance policy on a few fronts and agree with Baz on value.. 1. A 120+ Timeform is a serious racehorse and you hope they pass on that ability. An example of the leading top 20 sires on the current Australian sires list. My quick calculation is that 19 of the top 20 were Timeform 120+ as racehorses. Possibly only I Am Invincible under Timeform 120. 2. If you are breeding to sell then the ability of that stallion as a racehorse will be a factor in which level sale the progeny are accepted in. Plus market perception and demand will only grow with the Deep Impact's Saxon Warrior to Coolmore Australia and Real Steel, Mikki Isle to Messara at Arrowfield. In Japan Deep Impact had 47 individual 2yo winners last season alone. That is alot of 2yo winners. I see Deep Impact has sired the quinella in the Derby and Oaks this year so you know he is a classic sire.

thanks Byron. Have always enjoyed reading your blogs. While I really enjoyed your blog on mega nicks, could I ask you to do one that is from recent times.( Say last 10 years) This will mean a smaller data set. Could you go down to a data set of 10 foals of racing age.

Fillies can be hard. Some stallions do have a chance where you will see their service fee rise quickly and nice to be aboard just before they explode!. There is value in the $5,000 to $8,000 range and I don't think they are over priced.

I would be breeding to her for sure. That is pretty impressive. Do you sell them as weanlings or yearlings?

2019 New Season stallions Roaring Lion by Kitten's Joy Timeform Rated 130. Service Fee $35,000 +GST Staphanos by Deep Impact Timeform Rated 123. Service fee $7,000+GST Summer Passage by Snitzel Timeform Rated 117. Service Fee $8,000+GST Jon Snow by Ifraaj Timeform Rated 117. Service fee $6,000+GST Embellish by Savabeel Timeform Rated 107. Service fee $5,000+GST Howard Be Thy Name by Redoute's Choice Timeform 106. Service fee $5,000+GST Ardrossan by Redoute's Choice Timeform Rated 99. Service fee $8,000+GST

2019 New Season stallions Roaring Lion by Kitten's Joy Timeform Rated 130. Service Fee $35,000 +GST Staphanos by Deep Impact Timeform Rated 123. Service fee $7,000+GST Summer Passage by Snitzel Timeform Rated 117. Service Fee $8,000+GST Embellish by Savabeel Timeform Rated 107. Service fee $5,000+GST Howard Be Thy Name by Redoute's Choice Timeform 106. Service fee $5,000+GST Ardrossan by Redoute's Choice Timeform Rated 99. Service fee $8,000+GST Quote Edit

2019 New Season stallions Roaring Lion by Kitten's Joy Timeform Rated 130. Service Fee $35,000 +GST Staphanos by Deep Impact Timeform Rated 123. Service fee $7,000+GST Summer Passage by Snitzel Timeform Rated 117. Service Fee $8,000+GST Embellish by Savabeel Timeform Rated 107. Service fee $5,000+GST Howard Be Thy Name by Redoute's Choice Timeform 106. Service fee $5,000+GST Ardrossan by Redoute's Choice Timeform Rated 99. Service fee $8,000+GST

2019 New Season stallions Roaring Lion by Kitten's Joy Timeform Rated 130. Service Fee $35,000 +GST Staphanos by Deep Impact Timeform Rated 123. Service fee $7,000+GST Summer Passage by Snitzel Timeform Rated 117. Service Fee $8,000+GST Embellish by Savabeel Timeform Rated 107. Service fee $5,000+GST Ardrossan by Redoute's Choice Timeform Rated 99. Service fee $8,000+GST

Totally agree. It was done with Frankel in depth with the racetrack ratings of each mare and it has now showed he has not done as well as his initial start.