Karaka 2023

[scooby3051 10,977]

The Ladd is Allovertheform elsewhere....he hates TA for some reason he has a share in one with Jen Campin with Andrew Forsman...you have a good one at present how is your experience there???

[Idolmite 2,567]

2 hours ago, scooby3051 said:

Thats all fine but Ladd has a axe to grind seemingly with TA...nobody is forced to go into their horses but there is no need to purposely go out and post stuff with only one motive...JMO.

 

Any list should at least show some balance. That is merely a hit list. 

[Breeder 609]

4 hours ago, scooby3051 said:

Geez book 2 is a bloodbath

When you posted this scooby I was thinking the same but the figures for the end of Day 1 are slightly better than last year.

https://www.nzb.co.nz/news/international-buyers-lead-book-2-opening-session?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=International Buyers Lead Book 2 Opening Session&utm_content=International Buyers Lead Book 2 Opening Session+CID_449de4af5f6410a41cd3a01f77562762&utm_source=Email marketing software&utm_term=International Buyers Lead Book 2 Opening Session

[Idolmite 2,567]

3 hours ago, Kloppite said:

Where have I seen this list before?  Oh that's right - posted on RP to help fuel the Ferryman's anti-TA narrative.

Who would have thought - Thelad is the Ferryman's new bestie on RP.  Quite ironic

 

 

So it''s not even Laddy's own work? Not really a surprise though, I guess......

[scooby3051 10,977]

26 minutes ago, Idolmite said:

 

So it''s not even Laddy's own work? Not really a surprise though, I guess......

No its his work ..he posted it elsewhere before.

[Shad 1,559]

Everyone know the success of the leading stable, they are very good at what they do, so I think its interesting to see the other side of the coin, so one then can make an informed decision.

[Insider 3,973]

It’s easy to play with figures!

Do you want to own a part of next years winner of the Karaka Million? 

Yes.

Well, would you accept a one in twenty eight chance?

Sounds bloody good doesn’t it? A million times better chance than of winning Lotto!

Well I can promise you a 1 in  28 chance (almost) of winning the dash for cash.

Why? Because Te Akau have  won it for the last 8 or  9 years from the 20 to 30 yearlings that they have bought each year and with a purchase total of 28 (this year) why wouldn’t they do it again?

GO ON, INVEST IN A TE AKAU horse and give yourself a 1 in 28 chance of drinking the Champagne in a years time.

Invest in two, (even a minuscule share) and the odds reduce to 1 in 14. 

Do better, invest in three and you are almost guaranteed a place in the top 4, even if you don’t win and get to drink the Champaign but a cold beer on a hot night is still ok  

Disclosure: I gave absolutely nothing to do TA other than being an acquaintance years ago when I was slightly important

Playing with figures is fun though.

 

[Alf Riston 1,555]

I would suggest that a vast majority of TA syndicate members are in for the thrill rather than the money, although there is always a chance that there's a payday as an added bonus.

This is probably true as well for most owners in the game as if it was up to financials to be the leading factor, there wouldn't be very many horses going around at all. 

TA can rock up with decent amounts of cash and roll the dice on yearlings they think will deliver to their owners, which as Liz points out, happens on a regular basis.

Mark Purdon has done the same for years in Harness with huge success and without doubt is a wonderful judge of yearlings.

More power to them for their input of quality to local racing. 

 

 

 

 

[JJ Flash 2,137]

On 1/29/2023 at 11:36 AM, JJ Flash said:

Im picking there will be a lot of disappointed vendors vis a vis recent Magic Millions. Steve Davis will be outstanding as usual and the clearance rate will be average at best

Clearance rate a disappointing 79%. Top lots by Ozzie stallions with best NZ stallion 6th. Average of 152K vrs MM of 292K  in Oz currency. Likewise median at K1 was 130K versus 210 at MM.

Id rate the sale a C+ at best but im sure others will see it differently.

Congrats to S Davis for a marvellous performance on the rostrum and Trelawney Stud for selling 100% of their entries

[scooby3051 10,977]

33 minutes ago, JJ Flash said:

Clearance rate a disappointing 79%. Top lots by Ozzie stallions with best NZ stallion 6th. Average of 152K vrs MM of 292K  in Oz currency. Likewise median at K1 was 130K versus 210 at MM.

Id rate the sale a C+ at best but im sure others will see it differently.

Congrats to S Davis for a marvellous performance on the rostrum and Trelawney Stud for selling 100% of their entries

With the greatest respect you can not compare NZ sales with the MM sale we simply dont have the stallions to pull from or a decent pool of mares here anymore...our stallions are in a rebuilding phase and luckily we have the likes of Proisir, Satono Aladdin, Turn Me Loose, and a few others, but sadly our broodmare band has become quite sub standard so therefore the prices must fall with it. JMO. And its hard for NZ trainers to stick their hands up when there is no certainty as to what levels prize money we will be at next season..a sad sad state of affairs.

[JJ Flash 2,137]

4 minutes ago, scooby3051 said:

With the greatest respect you can not compare NZ sales with the MM sale we simply dont have the stallions to pull from or a decent pool of mares here anymore...our stallions are in a rebuilding phase and luckily we have the likes of Proisir, Satono Aladdin, Turn Me Loose, and a few others, but sadly our broodmare band has become quite sub standard so therefore the prices must fall with it. JMO. And its hard for NZ trainers to stick their hands up when there is no certainty as to what levels prize money we will be at next season..a sad sad state of affairs.

Fair enough but you still have the same pool of Trainer/Buyers so MM comparison is somewhere to start off the discussion. For example no China horse club,Snowdens,Ryan or Herons turned up here.

PS I should have added that Prosir had a100% clearance rate in Book 1 in my Congrats lists. 

[scooby3051 10,977]

1 hour ago, JJ Flash said:

Fair enough but you still have the same pool of Trainer/Buyers so MM comparison is somewhere to start off the discussion. For example no China horse club,Snowdens,Ryan or Herons turned up here.

PS I should have added that Prosir had a100% clearance rate in Book 1 in my Congrats lists. 

Many dont come here and many have never come here either. The Magic Millions in my humble opinion is the best sale in Australasia with the carnival tied in with it its a one of a kind that cant be replicated.

[Breeder 609]

I agree with scooby. You cannot compare Karaka and MM and never have been able , at least in recent years. If you look at the MM sale most of the yearlings are early ( August & September ) foals by sires that have early maturing stock. All the major Aussie studs carefully select the yearlings to go to that sale where most NZ vendors, with the exception of a few of the bigger studs, only have Karaka and Gavelhouse to choose from.  As you said sometime earlier JJ Flash the MM company do a fantastic job promoting the whole week, not just the sale, so it will attract plenty of people during what is holiday time.

I think it is more appropriate to compare the Melbourne sale to Karaka, if you are going to bother comparing sales.

[Breeder 609]

" The Magic Millions in my humble opinion is the best sale in Australasia "

I agree from a vendor's point of view but not from a buyer's view point. I think the horses are over priced, in general, and you can get better value at the Easter sale now (assuming you have deep pockets)

[nomates 3,609]

The big thing the MM has going for it is that there is not just a 2yo and 3yo race , they allow a horse bought at that sale to return year after year if good enough to compete for a million bucks , just running 3rd every year covers you horses costs for the season , a big plus in my book .

Also looking at what some paid for some average types and pedigrees i think everyone has to smoke a joint before entering the sales auditorium and bidding for a horse .

[JJ Flash 2,137]

1 hour ago, Breeder said:

where most NZ vendors, with the exception of a few of the bigger studs, only have Karaka and Gavelhouse to choose from.

Well they can get off their backsides and enter them at the Ozzie sales if they have the product. I know some loyal to NZB but if you want to run a commercial operation then you should act commercially IMO Just saying

[Theladdownsouth 328]

2 hours ago, JJ Flash said:

Well they can get off their backsides and enter them at the Ozzie sales if they have the product. I know some loyal to NZB but if you want to run a commercial operation then you should act commercially IMO Just saying

You look cambridge stud were selling under there own banner at the MM. 

[scooby3051 10,977]

The biggest problem is getting them prepared in our climate...our winters drag on...if it was me I would send them over to do their preps in Oz..like Waikato does with a few...but it all adds extra costs and risks...the main reason is the prize money here is so bad if the Aussies dont come there is very little domestic market buying bench...so a lot of breeders get burnt.

[JJ Flash 2,137]

16 hours ago, Theladdownsouth said:

You look cambridge stud were selling under there own banner at the MM. 

Yes i know that as do Westbury but then its owner also owns MM. No doubt some will appear at Inglis easter yearling sale as it suits slower maturing horses and attracts a massive bidding audience

As i said if you want to be commercially successful then you need to run your business in such a way as to reduce risk and increase income. The exchange rate gives NZ studs an advantage straight away

[scooby3051 10,977]

29 minutes ago, JJ Flash said:

Yes i know that as do Westbury but then its owner also owns MM. No doubt some will appear at Inglis easter yearling sale as it suits slower maturing horses and attracts a massive bidding audience

As i said if you want to be commercially successful then you need to run your business in such a way as to reduce risk and increase income. The exchange rate gives NZ studs an advantage straight away

The problem looks to me like the big breeders are still getting the cash...the small ones are getting spat out the back.

[JJ Flash 2,137]

1 hour ago, scooby3051 said:

The problem looks to me like the big breeders are still getting the cash...the small ones are getting spat out the back.

That's the way its gone in Standardbred industry so your probably right. Plus a lot of owners who race fillies dont want to be breeders hence all the deals being done with studs on foal share o r 50/50 sale deals

[Alf Riston 1,555]

Here's a thought.

This goes against the grain of my 'quality is best for the game' sentiments, but ..... 

How about a Sales Fails Series.

Purchasers can pay a x% insurance levy on their yearling and there can be a series of races that allows for purchases from the sale that have not earned a cheque in 3 starts to race for 'say' a $50,000 purse every 3 months (Summer, Autumn, Winter & Spring)

It's a back up plan to get a photo on the wall and win a decent race with a less than average horse 

 

 

 

[Blaird 131]

An interesting stat I read from the sales. Aussie buyers spent $13 million more this year than last year, Kiwi buyers spent $10 million less this year than last year.

[ADM 225]

With the abandonments, reduced money for next season is anyone really surprised local trainers are spending less, owners are not bottemless pits

[JJ Flash 2,137]

I see there is still 35% of the Million dollar horse available. One wonders how much the vendor stayed in for and was it Tom and Co?