RaceCafe Tips Thread Updated Daily

[Basil brush 234]

The O'Sullivan team going well lately and worth following.

[arjay 465]

16 minutes ago, scooby3051 said:

Cant agree with Opie, he just won a Group 1 in Oz and from what I saw yesterday he rode some pearlers...JMO...agree with McNab too.

Opie is great as always, others can have the wrong horse under them from time to time. Scooby 2 months ago you thought Colgan was yesterdays man, but he has roared back. riders cannot carry them.

[scooby3051 11,748]

1 hour ago, arjay said:

Opie is great as always, others can have the wrong horse under them from time to time. Scooby 2 months ago you thought Colgan was yesterdays man, but he has roared back. riders cannot carry them.

Agree, I may have spoke a little too soon on Vinnie, but I still stick by my opinion...some riders I just cant have he is amongst them but thats my own opinion.

[Idolmite 2,816]

11 minutes ago, scooby3051 said:

Agree, I may have spoke a little too soon on Vinnie, but I still stick by my opinion...some riders I just cant have he is amongst them but thats my own opinion.

Every dog has their day, apparently 

Although I imagine there are a few greyhounds that never win a race 

[Bimbo 752]

On 2/22/2024 at 8:47 PM, Houlahan's Dream said:

Or is Orchestral over the line already......

NZ TAB currently $1.35.  Ladbrokes and Neds $1.50. 

 

[Pak Star 870]

2 hours ago, Bimbo said:

NZ TAB currently $1.35.  Ladbrokes and Neds $1.50. 

 

There are some real discrepancies in the Derby market between TAB ad Neds.

Just As Sharp $12 Neds and $18 TAB

Solidify $31 Neds and $18 TAB

Mosinvader $18 Neds and $31 TAB

 

[Bimbo 752]

Yeah it's interesting how there can be such discrepancies from basically the same provider.  Both markets at 127% at present. 

[scooby3051 11,748]

I know Masa has had his knockers on here but he is riding as good as anyone in the country right now...I have always liked him and a bloody good hard working person to boot.

[Gruff 2,888]

7 hours ago, scooby3051 said:

I know Masa has had his knockers on here but he is riding as good as anyone in the country right now...I have always liked him and a bloody good hard working person to boot.

He rode one against it's regular pattern last week but otherwise very good Boss

[Memphis3 1,364]

Can someone explain race 7 at Tauherenikau today. #2 is carded to carry 58.5 kgs. First starter. Other horses have numerous placings but carrying less. Have I missed something? 

[nomates 4,244]

3 minutes ago, Memphis3 said:

Can someone explain race 7 at Tauherenikau today. #2 is carded to carry 58.5 kgs. First starter. Other horses have numerous placings but carrying less. Have I missed something? 

Set weights M , Timmy is the only gelding in the field .

[Pak Star 870]

34 minutes ago, Memphis3 said:

Have I missed something? 

Its penis would be my guess?  Kingston Heath is also a gelding but I suspect it got a weight allowance for being a 3yo

edit: oops missed nomates reply... and to keep on topic, I did like Justify That in the race.  Drawn 1 and likes to go forward.  If Lisa gets some nice sectionals out in front she could be hard to roll.  

[Memphis3 1,364]

I like race 2 #3. Been keeping up with Town Cryer in her work and she was huge yesterday. 

[Houlahan's Dream 562]

Auckland Cup looks a reasonable puzzle on the new track. 

 

Quite partial to Mark Twain, finishing off hard over middle distance races lately, Asterix they seem to have worked him out a bit more, got to be a shot, Dionysus last summer went well in Wgtn Cup, then tanked in Akl Cup, this summer more relaxed programme - he is a danger. 

And Waisake - yes, old bones. But 2 m proven for sure, been ticking along, Sharrock knows his stuff. 

I hope it rains a bit more. I worry about the older horses on the firm surface. 

[Pete Lane 893]

9 hours ago, Houlahan's Dream said:

Auckland Cup looks a reasonable puzzle on the new track. 

 

Quite partial to Mark Twain, finishing off hard over middle distance races lately, Asterix they seem to have worked him out a bit more, got to be a shot, Dionysus last summer went well in Wgtn Cup, then tanked in Akl Cup, this summer more relaxed programme - he is a danger. 

And Waisake - yes, old bones. But 2 m proven for sure, been ticking along, Sharrock knows his stuff. 

I hope it rains a bit more. I worry about the older horses on the firm surface. 

I've always liked Whangaehu as a horse.

Took a little bit of $21 on futures. He's a live chance but probably more a likely placegetter.

[scooby3051 11,748]

1 hour ago, Pete Lane said:

I've always liked Whangaehu as a horse.

Took a little bit of $21 on futures. He's a live chance but probably more a likely placegetter.

Place is safer I don't think Lisa has ridden a winner at Ellerslie ever has she??/

[Pete Lane 893]

4 minutes ago, scooby3051 said:

Place is safer I don't think Lisa has ridden a winner at Ellerslie ever has she??/

Yeah you're probably right. 

Saturday could be the day. The horse is no slug. He went to Chris Waller for a while and won over there.

[Right first time 1,960]

On 3/7/2024 at 7:20 AM, Houlahan's Dream said:

Auckland Cup looks a reasonable puzzle on the new track. 

And Waisake - yes, old bones. But 2 m proven for sure, been ticking along, Sharrock knows his stuff. 

 

Famous last words ! 

In my opinion, Waisake's time has been . . . and gone.
Was top drawer at one time, but for the past many months has battled away ok without ever looking to have the fire of old.
Usually finds a few better.
7 lengths from My Maebelline Girl last time out isn't a great recommendation, even though obviously over a shorter distance.
9 y-o and unlikely to be on the improve.
Just my opinion, and boy have I been wrong before ! 

[Memphis3 1,364]

But not often  rft

[Zakhu 529]

19 hours ago, scooby3051 said:

Place is safer I don't think Lisa has ridden a winner at Ellerslie ever has she??/

That's quite harsh - she has ridden 16 winners at Ellerslie from 521 rides. Ok strike rate is poor but not shockingly poor.

[Basil brush 234]

On 3/3/2024 at 12:22 PM, Pak Star said:

Its penis would be my guess?  Kingston Heath is also a gelding but I suspect it got a weight allowance for being a 3yo

edit: oops missed nomates reply... and to keep on topic, I did like Justify That in the race.  Drawn 1 and likes to go forward.  If Lisa gets some nice sectionals out in front she could be hard to roll.  

Dodgy bloody Vet if the horse is missing it's penis

[Alf Riston 1,806]

34 minutes ago, Basil brush said:

Dodgy bloody Vet if the horse is missing it's penis

It's probably a load of balls.....that's missing

[Memphis3 1,364]

2 hours ago, Zak Hussai said:

That's quite harsh - she has ridden 16 winners at Ellerslie from 521 rides. Ok strike rate is poor but not shockingly poor.

Yes a bit harsh. Unlike nearly every jockey in NZ she has also won a race in Saudi Arabia. Love to see her take the cup back to Whangaehu. The party would be long 

[Houlahan's Dream 562]

9 hours ago, Right first time said:

Famous last words ! 

In my opinion, Waisake's time has been . . . and gone.
Was top drawer at one time, but for the past many months has battled away ok without ever looking to have the fire of old.
Usually finds a few better.
7 lengths from My Maebelline Girl last time out isn't a great recommendation, even though obviously over a shorter distance.
9 y-o and unlikely to be on the improve.
Just my opinion, and boy have I been wrong before ! 

Fair enough. El Soldado@ 130/1, Roger That @ 40/1, even last year, Plat Invader @22/1 suggests in recent years it has not exactly been a favourites paradise. Lack of true staying contests means that for 70% of the field this is their first time over 3200. Always finds a few well favoured runners wanting in last 6/700 m. 

[Ponderosa8 1,436]

Early pick for a roughie tomorrow.... Endean Affair in the last race at Ellerslie. Currently paying $21 on the FF Win market.