Rich Hill Mile

[Grant R 348]

This will be a great race on the 1st some up and coming stars doing battle Hasslehoff, Rasa Lila , Victor Hugo, Tavy, Consensus . However i may get shot down here but i'm leaning towards Victor Hugo to come out on top and my reason is the combination of Baker/Foresman and Bosson will just be  to strong. And to be honest I think Victor Hugo is just been set perfectly for this race with a huge run from second to last on the turn into the straight at Te Rapa and Opie has said will improve from the run. I would love to be proven wrong by all the Hasslehoff fans though.

[GONSTA 1,148]

Where is the pace going to come from for all the back markers? This race looks set up for Hasselhoof to push forward from the decent draw and get a nice position on speed and let's see how good he is.

Rasa Lila looks a decent lay to me at the weights / draw / lack of tempo, even with all the recent form around Stolen Dance.

[rdytdy 5,345]

Fast Dragon will go forward and lead with Thee Auld Floozie in the trail.

[Ohokaman 5,884]

If Fast Learner goes away decently he will give them all something to think about.....

[Ohokaman 5,884]

True Hesi, Heart in mouth stuff every start....but he has some ability that one....

[Lloyd Vivian 742]

I think Hasselhoof will win. He's got that 'elastic' stretch to his action and when he accelerates it's electric. He looks to me, to be pretty much untapped at this point. Without wishing in any way to 'diss' the opposition, I think he's already shown he's a superior animal.

[Midget 4,489]

I'm not so sure about the "hoof".

He had a soft run in a canter & sprint affair last start, and he won easily but he looked very raw and green doing it.

Three horses that you'd reasonably describe as just average ran better last 600s than him in that race, and the next five home after him have all run since without troubling the judge.

I think he's a lay myself, he just seems to need more ground to me, and he certainly won't be winning a Rich Hill if what we saw last start is the best sectional he can run.

Rasa Lila will give him a cold as it flashes by the last 200m I suspect.

Speaking of sectionals, now the data is up how bad was Xtravagant and why on earth are they still pumping him up ?

His last 200 was woeful, slowest on the day by about a second I think,  and unless he was 20+kg over weight ( that's quite possible I suppose ), or had something major wrong with him that we don't know about or haven't been told, he was hugely disappointing and he's not racing like the potential superstar we saw at CHCH.

I'm starting to question whether he's even genuine after that shocker.

[Huey 2,037]

11 hours ago, Midget said:

I'm not so sure about the "hoof".

He had a soft run in a canter & sprint affair last start, and he won easily but he looked very raw and green doing it.

Three horses that you'd reasonably describe as just average ran better last 600s than him in that race, and the next five home after him have all run since without troubling the judge.

I think he's a lay myself, he just seems to need more ground to me, and he certainly won't be winning a Rich Hill if what we saw last start is the best sectional he can run.

Rasa Lila will give him a cold as it flashes by the last 200m I suspect.

Speaking of sectionals, now the data is up how bad was Xtravagant and why on earth are they still pumping him up ?

His last 200 was woeful, slowest on the day by about a second I think,  and unless he was 20+kg over weight ( that's quite possible I suppose ), or had something major wrong with him that we don't know about or haven't been told, he was hugely disappointing and he's not racing like the potential superstar we saw at CHCH.

I'm starting to question whether he's even genuine after that shocker.

I'll take Tavy in the Ritual mile ;0

 

Surely you're spruiking a price on Xtravagant for Wellington Midget?

[Midget 4,489]

 

 

So there's the data from Boxing Day.

I can't see how anyone can interpret that as anything other than clearly inferior, and about 'maiden' standard, and that's validated by the fact a maidener took 6-8 lengths out of him in the last 400m.

I'd love to hear Neil Davis express his honest opinion about that data.

The excuses could be;

he was fat, and that's highly likely but he had a stern and quick exhibition gallop the week before

he's not a right hander, but he seemed fine in his exhibition gallop at Tauranga

his attitude is dodgy, and that's what I'd be worried about because he looks as though he knows he's a colt, and what those dangly bits are good for.

He should win at Wellington, left handed, trip away from home so he'll be a bit lighter, and I can't think of another one who might clean him up anyway, presuming of course we see the same Xtravagant we saw at CHCH.

After CHCH I thought we had another superstar but now I'm not so sure.

In the absence of any other top liner I'll back him at Wellington, but I doubt I'll be lining up when he goes to Ozz.

 

 

 

 

#	Class/Dist.	Winner	L800	L600	L400	L200
1	85 2100	SACRED MASTER	11.76	11.40	11.30	11.78
2	2YO 1100	GASOLINE	11.22	11.86	11.28	11.36
3	85 1400	MABEEL	11.46	11.46	11.40	11.72
4	3YO 1400	XTRAVAGANT	11.68	11.52	11.80	12.92
5	75 1200	FULLY FUNDED	10.82	11.32	11.24	11.76
6	65 1600	RYKER	11.88	12.00	11.32	11.86
7	3YOF 1600	CAPELLA	11.30	11.18	11.40	11.60
8	Open 1200	RED STRIKER	11.02	10.86	10.92	11.32
9	WFA 2000	KAWI	12.16	11.32	10.76	11.14
10	75 1400	SEVENTH UP	11.94	11.72	11.30	10.92

 

 

 

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[N1MUE 1,877]

How did his first 400m compare to the other races?  Perhaps he used a bit early when that other horse (Ben Again) took him on?  

[Midget 4,489]

Possible, but then you've got to factor in the horse that fell, it split the field open and every horse except the leading two appeared to be inconvenienced so that gave the advantage back to Xtravagant big time.

I guess I'd like to have heard the connections show some common sense and talk realistically about that performance, but no it was just hype, hype, hype, when any fool could see that run was ordinary.

Roll on Wellington, he'll probably put 10 on them again and I can eat some leftover humble pie. 

[GONSTA 1,148]

11 minutes ago, N1MUE said:

How did his first 400m compare to the other races?  Perhaps he used a bit early when that other horse (Ben Again) took him on?  

 

From Neil Davis (formpro.co.nz)

 

"Good tempo suited off pace runners with first 200m sectionals averaging 11.60 from the stand. 

 

Xtavagant 36.22 Solid tempo so it was no wonder he was looking flat out 200m to go and just finished off the race on class alone. He definitely looked in need of the run. He jumped clearly ahead of the field which is going to win him races. Co trainer Jamie Richards said, “ … he was very good today but personally I feel he is better left handed. Just didn’t change legs and do what he has been doing at home… he was just a class above the others. “

He is on track for Trentham and looks much more comfortable left handed."

[berzerk 107]

Personally, while it is a race chocked full of "potential", the reality of an open Group 2 race with top rated/weighted horse is just 96 is pretty disappointing. It will great to see these up and comers going head to head....but where are the great milers of year gone by?

Or is it just a changing of the guard, and an outlier of a year? I hope, for the sake of NZ racing, we can look back in retrospect and say what a good field it was

[GONSTA 1,148]

17 hours ago, Midget said:

I'm not so sure about the "hoof".

He had a soft run in a canter & sprint affair last start, and he won easily but he looked very raw and green doing it.

Three horses that you'd reasonably describe as just average ran better last 600s than him in that race, and the next five home after him have all run since without troubling the judge.

I think he's a lay myself, he just seems to need more ground to me, and he certainly won't be winning a Rich Hill if what we saw last start is the best sectional he can run.

Rasa Lila will give him a cold as it flashes by the last 200m I suspect.

 

Hoof $1.75 Rasa Lila $9.

You must be getting pretty involved in that market then. 

[Midget 4,489]

I prefer not to engage with you given your history, but to justify my earlier comments I'll just say this.

The "hoof" is on the up, he's clearly a serious racehorse, he's obviously looking for a bit of a trip, but you cannot escape the fact he hasn't run sectionals remotely close to Rasa Lila.

She on the other hand has had a few runs this campaign and she looks to be losing her speed ( we know she's a stayer from her last campaign so it's no surprise she's losing that brilliance ) and she too is looking for more ground.

The question that you need to answer before you back either is what will the tempo of this race be ?

I've had a very close look because we have a runner and that'll determine our tactics.

In my ideal world this is how it'll evolve, the Wallace/Peard horse, Fast Dragon, will lead them up, Sweet Peas mare, TOF, will sit second, but that doesn't guarantee a good tempo so the key to the race lies wth Irion, the other Vela runner.

If Irion goes forward and forces the pace either Rasa Lila or Tavy wins ( but I suspect the fast run mile might find Tavy out ) & if Irion doesn't go forward and the Hoof sits third or fourth in a slowly run affair he wins.

It's that simple, now all you need to do is decide what they're going to do with Irion, then bet accordingly.

 

[Ohokaman 5,884]

4 hours ago, Midget said:

I prefer not to engage with you given your history, but to justify my earlier comments I'll just say this.

The "hoof" is on the up, he's clearly a serious racehorse, he's obviously looking for a bit of a trip, but you cannot escape the fact he hasn't run sectionals remotely close to Rasa Lila.

She on the other hand has had a few runs this campaign and she looks to be losing her speed ( we know she's a stayer from her last campaign so it's no surprise she's losing that brilliance ) and she too is looking for more ground.

The question that you need to answer before you back either is what will the tempo of this race be ?

I've had a very close look because we have a runner and that'll determine our tactics.

In my ideal world this is how it'll evolve, the Wallace/Peard horse, Fast Dragon, will lead them up, Sweet Peas mare, TOF, will sit second, but that doesn't guarantee a good tempo so the key to the race lies wth Irion, the other Vela runner.

If Irion goes forward and forces the pace either Rasa Lila or Tavy wins ( but I suspect the fast run mile might find Tavy out ) & if Irion doesn't go forward and the Hoof sits third or fourth in a slowly run affair he wins.

It's that simple, now all you need to do is decide what they're going to do with Irion, then bet accordingly.

 

35-1 on FO eh Midge...those sharp Bookies say no hope.......

[Midget 4,489]

I'll be on the horse that handles a wet track the best ( if the Metservice is correct ).

I note the "hoof" won a trial on a wet track.

[bloke 1,239]

The weather forecast is not good. Looks like the Jaffas are going to be dumped on. They just will not be able to pose under the  sun umbrellas with their pinots.

[chelseacol 2,488]

Ok - if the forecast is right and it pours down - El Pescado for me at the odds. Been close to the Hoof, will handle the wet better than most, draw,won on track etc etc.

[Peter Harrop 226]

On Monday, December 28, 2015 10:43:30, Midget said:

 

Speaking of sectionals, now the data is up how bad was Xtravagant and why on earth are they still pumping him up ?

His last 200 was woeful, slowest on the day by about a second I think,  and unless he was 20+kg over weight ( that's quite possible I suppose ), or had something major wrong with him that we don't know about or haven't been told, he was hugely disappointing and he's not racing like the potential superstar we saw at CHCH.

I'm starting to question whether he's even genuine after that shocker.

Why are the last 200m sectionals more important than the first 200m? If a horse can get a lead at the top of the straight due to running fast early, then he doesn't need to run as fast at the end. The race is run over the full distance, not just the last 200 metres. That's how I'd be analyzing it. Sectionals are far less important to me than the full distance time.

[We're Doomed 4,928]

I think the Hoof is obviously a decent type and will probably go on to become a handy stayer, but at this time it might pay to remember he has  never started in an open class race, he has never really beaten much, he has only raced away from Ruakaka the once, and the only time he has raced in a decent sized field  was in his maiden win.

Having said that, the race is hardly strong and hasn't really been won by a top liner for the last ten years or so. There are certainly no high class top weights about these days.

Interestingly, the race was run for $100,000 ten years or so ago, increased for a while then dropped back to $100,000 again. So perhaps no surprise it is more of an up and comers race really, and probably lucky to be group 11.

[scooby3051 11,024]

Nice win by a top class racehorse... he is a rising star for sure...congrats to all the connections.

[WhoKnows 791]

It's great to get a horse like this creating a bit of a buzz remaining unbeaten and looking like he has plenty left, where are the knockers of the horse now?

[Traka 115]

Yes, certainly did it well, but I bet his sectionals were crap

[Black Kirrama 1,520]

Hasselhoof proved today what an amazing Thoroughbred he is.

Sure, he's been a very hyped horse.

But Today he beat a very good Group two, field, ( for a pathetic $100k stake ) with ease.

Donna did our industry a huge favour, by "reorganising" the ownership.

Matt rode him supremely.

Cheer him on  where ever he goes. We need him and horses like Him.

Samantha Logan   ( Iwannadancelikehim} and Craig Thornton (Manalo B etc)  have they also got

Group Winners ?  I think so.

Happy New Years .

Rev