RaceCafe Tips Thread Updated Daily

[Ohokaman 6,489]

28 minutes ago, Idolmite said:

Fair call. I just remember the "windburn" comment, and while l didn't see the race l was hoping he was carrying a good winter coat as it'd probably have got pretty blustery as all of the Kiwis swept past HIM [assuming he got near the front at some stage?] 

Was it just a hit & run mission?

Plan was to stay on for the Auckland Cup in March. Haven’t heard if that has changed.

[Idolmite 3,525]

6 minutes ago, Ohokaman said:

Plan was to stay on for the Auckland Cup in March. Haven’t heard if that has changed.

Great stuff. 

[Houlahan's Dream 686]

Only race I am interested in is the Railway on Saturday and I think Babylon Berlin is overs at $8. 

Great course record, 1200 may be right at the limit but I think the new Ellerslie suits the speed more, and Colgan can pinch it.

 

[stodge 2,557]

Ascot this afternoon and don’t we just love it - the clothes, the pomp, the royal procession before the first, the colour and the glamour?

What do you mean - not THAT Ascot? Ascot Park, not Ascot Heath……

A 5/1 winner pays out whatever Ascot you’re betting on.

Probably not the strongest card you’ll see - I thought the opening maiden came dangerously close to the bottom of the barrel but someone has to win.

A few observations or more likely losers from me - not sure what the ground will be, currently a Soft 5 but there is rain so it’ll probably end up a Good 2.

12.25: SHORT

1.04:  LEAVE IT TO ME

1.37:  BELARDO ACE

2.14:  MAMAEA

2.47:  INDIE ARDIE

3.57:  BURNVUE

 

[Charlie E 794]

Orchestral , Belclare and Alabama Lass , they wouldn't get my money at those odds . Each one is a huge risk to me 

[Maximus 818]

1 hour ago, stodge said:

Ascot this afternoon and don’t we just love it - the clothes, the pomp, the royal procession before the first, the colour and the glamour?

What do you mean - not THAT Ascot? Ascot Park, not Ascot Heath……

A 5/1 winner pays out whatever Ascot you’re betting on.

Probably not the strongest card you’ll see - I thought the opening maiden came dangerously close to the bottom of the barrel but someone has to win.

A few observations or more likely losers from me - not sure what the ground will be, currently a Soft 5 but there is rain so it’ll probably end up a Good 2.

12.25: SHORT

1.04:  LEAVE IT TO ME

1.37:  BELARDO ACE

2.14:  MAMAEA

2.47:  INDIE ARDIE

3.57:  BURNVUE

 

for a moment i thought you were referring to West Australia's Ascot but that was yesterday and yesterday's gone.
Cue Chad n Jeremy ... sing along with Maxi now, stodge ...

 

[Ohokaman 6,489]

Not much to get enthused about at Invercargill, but found a couple.

R6 Strong - ran 3rd to Titicaca a couple back at Riccarton. Kylie should suit $5.50.

R7 Caledonie - ran against better opposition in the North. Best would win this.. $7.50

[Houlahan's Dream 686]

4 hours ago, Charlie E said:

Orchestral , Belclare and Alabama Lass , they wouldn't get my money at those odds . Each one is a huge risk to me 

Amen. 

If they had a 'lay' multi I would be into it. 

Belclare possibly could win....

[racingoutsider 392]

20 minutes ago, Houlahan's Dream said:

Amen. 

If they had a 'lay' multi I would be into it. 

Belclare possibly could win....

Why not just lay on BF and go all up if you want?

[Idolmite 3,525]

4 hours ago, Charlie E said:

Orchestral , Belclare and Alabama Lass , they wouldn't get my money at those odds . Each one is a huge risk to me 

According to Entain Belclare is an "import". Since when did a Kiwi horse returning from Australia become an import?

[Maximus 818]

20 minutes ago, Idolmite said:

According to Entain Belclare is an "import". Since when did a Kiwi horse returning from Australia become an import?

on the very day that Jacinda Ardern declared her Gummit to be the single source of truth (15 May 2020).

[racingoutsider 392]

20 minutes ago, Idolmite said:

According to Entain Belclare is an "import". Since when did a Kiwi horse returning from Australia become an import?

Entain are correct. Officially imported.

The following horses must also complete an Import Application, however, there is no fee charged in these circumstances.

• Foals arriving at foot with their dam
• A visiting racehorse, where the period of stay is less than 3 months.

[Charlie E 794]

2 hours ago, Houlahan's Dream said:

Amen. 

If they had a 'lay' multi I would be into it. 

Belclare possibly could win....

Probably the best chance of the 3 for sure . Hmmm the other two bit different meeting other horses in good form . I like Luberon with Blakie on . Got plenty off it at Rotorua that day 

[stodge 2,557]

Just looking back at yesterday’s Ascot card and a Heavy 8 card in the middle of summer probably not what many would have been expecting.

One or two looked all at the sea including INDIE ARDIE but such slow ground often accentuates the superiority of winners especially over longer distances.

The first two winners over the longer distances won by wide margins. SHORT had run well at Gore just before Christmas but had done nothing over 1600m last time. Back up to 2200m on his favoured slow ground he powered home and should follow up perhaps later in the year on slow turf.

The second race winner, STOLEN MAGIC, bolted up by six and a half lengths. He had won at Wingatui on Boxing Day but perhaps fetching up to Riverton five days later wasn’t a good move. Three weeks on and the benefit of the break was obvious. Whether he can follow up in a 75 rating race I don’t know but a step up to 2100m should benefit.

MAMAEA is an improving filly and took the 1400m race well. However, she’s had three runs in a month and I’d be wary of following her if she turns out very quickly. That said, given her clear comfort on slow turf, she could be a winter type.

[Houlahan's Dream 686]

KM possibles...

Pericles is overs I think.

Skew Wiff about right.

Dealt With very good horse in making. 

BBerlin might pinch it. 

All will get the standard 3/7 ew all day Houlahan treatment. See how we pitch up this evening.

[nomates 5,591]

Really like Malt Time tonight , she deserves a big one .

[stodge 2,557]

Spent the morning chewing over the form for today’s three meeting bonanza. Most attention on this evening’s nonsense at Ellerslie but a winner’s a winner wherever you can find it so I’ve had a trawl through the dark recesses of both Riccarton and Wanganui which provide the afternoon entertainment.

My ones to lay down and avoid at all costs:

Ellerslie:

4.38: SHE’S UNTOUCHABLE (each way)

5.13: BOURBON EMPRESS

6.23: LA DORADA 

7.43: ALABAMA LASS

Riccarton:

11.55: PURPLE PROSE

12.30: FANTAIL

1.02:  BEST ROSE

2.53:  QUINTABELLE

Wanganui:

12.14: WE FOUND LOVE

12.46: SPRING MOON

1.18:  BOW STREET

1.52:  AMEND

2.26:  THE BIG PICTURE

3.00:  KHAFRE

This will be considered heresy I suspect but from a punting point of view I like the Wanganui card best of the three on offer.

Riccarton beckons….

[Ohokaman 6,489]

9 minutes ago, stodge said:

Spent the morning chewing over the form for today’s three meeting bonanza. Most attention on this evening’s nonsense at Ellerslie but a winner’s a winner wherever you can find it so I’ve had a trawl through the dark recesses of both Riccarton and Wanganui which provide the afternoon entertainment.

My ones to lay down and avoid at all costs:

Ellerslie:

4.38: SHE’S UNTOUCHABLE (each way)

5.13: BOURBON EMPRESS

6.23: LA DORADA 

7.43: ALABAMA LASS

Riccarton:

11.55: PURPLE PROSE

12.30: FANTAIL

1.02:  BEST ROSE

2.53:  QUINTABELLE

Wanganui:

12.14: WE FOUND LOVE

12.46: SPRING MOON

1.18:  BOW STREET

1.52:  AMEND

2.26:  THE BIG PICTURE

3.00:  KHAFRE

This will be considered heresy I suspect but from a punting point of view I like the Wanganui card best of the three on offer.

Riccarton beckons….

Airpark Hustler a gift at Riccarton…..

R1 

[stodge 2,557]

Just now, Ohokaman said:

Airpark Hustler a gift at Riccarton…..

R1 

So everyone was saying yet went off at $5.20 I think. The horse has plenty to learn but got there in the end. PURPLE PROSE wasn’t unlucky despite what the Trackside analysts say and wouldn’t have won with a clear run.

[Ohokaman 6,489]

Hopefully a good day at Ellerslie later on..

R1 Poetic Champion - Cheaha

R2 Orchestral - anywhere near her best just wins

R3 Faraglioni and Konasana

R4 La Dorada ( my horse in the KM comp  ) - be wary of Hello Romeo from the Hayes camp.

R5 Good race this. Prosegur - Dealt With - Kiwi Skyhawk for blowout

R6 Crocetti - Waitak - Alabama Lass

[Ohokaman 6,489]

Had a quick look at Tauranga on Monday, nice card there.

R1 Shockabella - extra distance should suit

R2 Zormella - very impressive at trials. My Sharona hard if starts here.

R7 Irish Legacy v Puketiro should be a good battle

R9 Carisbrooke Castle - impressive first up

[Blaird 603]

2 minutes ago, Ohokaman said:

Had a quick look at Tauranga on Monday, nice card there

Tauranga has had lots of rain over night and this morning. Looks like the sun is coming out now so hope the track is not too bad come Monday.

[stodge 2,557]

Monday morning and the circus rolls on to Tauranga where it’s officially a Soft 7 but it’s fine here in Hawke’s Bay and I’m hoping we’ll get an upgrade in the ground before racing.

A nice card for the holiday makers - a bit like a summer card at Yarmouth in the UK. A good variety of races.

A few thoughts from me:

12.50: ZORMELLA

2.31:  PLENTY O’STYLE

3.05:  BALANCE OF POWER

3.42:  IRISH LEGACY

4.17:  SALTNESSE

4.52:  CARISBROOKE CASTLE

 

[Pete Lane 1,384]

4 minutes ago, stodge said:

Monday morning and the circus rolls on to Tauranga where it’s officially a Soft 7 but it’s fine here in Hawke’s Bay and I’m hoping we’ll get an upgrade in the ground before racing.

A nice card for the holiday makers - a bit like a summer card at Yarmouth in the UK. A good variety of races.

A few thoughts from me:

12.50: ZORMELLA

2.31:  PLENTY O’STYLE

3.05:  BALANCE OF POWER

3.42:  IRISH LEGACY

4.17:  SALTNESSE

4.52:  CARISBROOKE CASTLE

 

Track is well know for drying quickly. With a high of 26 and strong southwesterlies you'd think it would come back to a Soft 5 or maybe even a Good 4.

[stodge 2,557]

Another poor afternoon of tipping - the ground didn’t seem to dry out that much.

If you took the short odds on IRISH LEGACY, a couple of moments of concern but he was far too good. CARISBROOKE CASTLE was disappointing but I think he needs quicker ground. I would give ZORMELLA another chance with the benefit of experience.

Performance of the card for me was AFTERMATH. He’s in the Auckland Cup - not sure about that but he looks one to progress over further.

Another for the notebook might be EVE’S SONG who didn’t get any run but it’s not the first time and I just wonder if she’s one of those who makes her own bad luck.

On to Waverley tomorrow - FLYING ANGEL has already caught my eye as a debutante in the second but the market doesn’t want to know with DRAMATIC MISS short overnight and to be fair she kept some decent company in spring maidens.