Dopey

First Season Sire Predictions

41 posts in this topic

I have cut and paste the Arion contenders for first season sire honours - being number of winners based. 

I'll stick my neck out to start and say:

1. Shamexpress (many went to auzzie and lower numbers - (lots of Grosvenor in him imo but he did sprint!

2. Jakkalberry (I think will have speed early enough) and they have class

there may be others not on the list ?

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Great post, Dopey !  There may be a few entires yet to be notified as possibles for the Breeding barn.

Moving forward....Can you Imagine the 13 new Sires notified for this season 2017 evr becoming a dominant Sire ?

If the NZ based mares available are  (say )  just  6,000,  what chance are any of The  them in 2020

of out performing the Current  established Sires ??

If we go back to the Taxation credit days of the 1980's  etc, I can not remember so many first season Resident Sires ever to stand at stud in NZ .

John Richardson, Steve Lindsay, John Thompson and Russell Warwick  and others will probably probably correct me.

 

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1 hour ago, Black Kirrama said:

Great post, Dopey !  There may be a few entires yet to be notified as possibles for the Breeding barn.

Moving forward....Can you Imagine the 13 new Sires notified for this season 2017 evr becoming a dominant Sire ?

If the NZ based mares available are  (say )  just  6,000,  what chance are any of The  them in 2020

of out performing the Current  established Sires ??

If we go back to the Taxation credit days of the 1980's  etc, I can not remember so many first season Resident Sires ever to stand at stud in NZ .

John Richardson, Steve Lindsay, John Thompson and Russell Warwick  and others will probably probably correct me.

 

Turn Me Loose
Turn_Me_Loose_Bosson%20Caulfield.jpg
 

 

TURN ME LOOSE (Iffraaj-Indomitable by Danehill)

 

  • Juvenile winner at 2
  • Classic winner at 3
  • Gr.1 WFA winner at 4
  • Winner of over $1.7 million - 7 wins 1200m-1600m
  • Best performed son of leading international sire Iffraaj

:)

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4 hours ago, Black Kirrama said:

Great post, Dopey !  There may be a few entires yet to be notified as possibles for the Breeding barn.

Moving forward....Can you Imagine the 13 new Sires notified for this season 2017 evr becoming a dominant Sire ?

If the NZ based mares available are  (say )  just  6,000,  what chance are any of The  them in 2020

of out performing the Current  established Sires ??

If we go back to the Taxation credit days of the 1980's  etc, I can not remember so many first season Resident Sires ever to stand at stud in NZ .

John Richardson, Steve Lindsay, John Thompson and Russell Warwick  and others will probably probably correct me.

 

Yes here is this years new season sires

 

IMG_5152.PNG

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Looks like it was a very quiet year for freshman sires standing in 2014.

Only 2 commercial sires on the list, One had major issues with fertility in his first season and the other was a true stayer and best at 2400m and further. Both ended up with reasonably small numbers of foals on the ground.

Would have to say Shamexpress hot favourite.

I would suggest the winner by first season individual winners this season would only need 2 individual winners to get the title and will most likely be crowned champion first season sire by earnings also.

On a side note it looks like Windsor have rectified Shamexpress' fertility levels some what, still not great but much improved from his first season which is great news

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On 8/3/2017 at 1:16 PM, BruceL said:

Looks like it was a very quiet year for freshman sires standing in 2014.

Only 2 commercial sires on the list, One had major issues with fertility in his first season and the other was a true stayer and best at 2400m and further. Both ended up with reasonably small numbers of foals on the ground.

Would have to say Shamexpress hot favourite.

I would suggest the winner by first season individual winners this season would only need 2 individual winners to get the title and will most likely be crowned champion first season sire by earnings also.

On a side note it looks like Windsor have rectified Shamexpress' fertility levels some what, still not great but much improved from his first season which is great news

Both Shamexpress and Jakkalberry sold well at the sales in their first year.

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1 hour ago, Dopey said:

Both Shamexpress and Jakkalberry sold well at the sales in their first year.

They did. 

Cant imagine Jakkalberry will be much of a first season sire and that's what this thread is about isn't it?

Shamexpress a big stallion and from smallish numbers on the ground may get a few winners in NZ this season , wasn't much of a 2yo himself and family not overly precocious.

Would expect these stallions progeny to be best at 3 and beyond.

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3 hours ago, BruceL said:

They did. 

Cant imagine Jakkalberry will be much of a first season sire and that's what this thread is about isn't it?

Shamexpress a big stallion and from smallish numbers on the ground may get a few winners in NZ this season , wasn't much of a 2yo himself and family not overly precocious.

Would expect these stallions progeny to be best at 3 and beyond.

Totally agree, sham looks to have a lot of Grosvenor about him and jakk is classic class from a top family.

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7 hours ago, rdytdy said:

Had a look at Vadamos yesterday. Nice type.  

Yes, just arrived from a northern hemisphere service effort? still looking very much the race horse. 

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Shamexpress for mine for leading first season sire. But biased because I have a small share in one. Ferlax could be the surprise packet. Not overly impressed by his yearlings at Karaka but a couple looked like they may make 2yos. Liable to have more runners than the other first season sires. This alone will make him prominent on the ladder.

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48 minutes ago, gubellini said:

Shamexpress for mine for leading first season sire. But biased because I have a small share in one. Ferlax could be the surprise packet. Not overly impressed by his yearlings at Karaka but a couple looked like they may make 2yos. Liable to have more runners than the other first season sires. This alone will make him prominent on the ladder.

Yes thanks gube, ferlax not in the list above due to being ..well... dead. I think he's a chance too.

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Ferlax only ended up with 51 live foals so similar to Shamexpress and obviously a few have went overseas.

These first season stallions working off small books. Then again Power was first season champion sire in NZ by individual winners and prize money last season and he only had 52 live foals.

 

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Kirrama wrote about 17 new sires for 2017.  Go back thirty years there were 41 new sires in the 1987 breeding season.  Some of the luminaries (sarc) were  Half Century, Happy Melody, High Ice, Jigg's Alarm, Keitel, Lucky Ring, Minstrel Blues, Northerly Native, Pin Puller, Royal Loch, Shannon, Shifnal Prince, Silver Prospector, Space Appeal, Trubisc, Voyager, Wham, Young Runaway, Archimedes, Blazing Keel, Blue Razor, Concert Dancer, Conquistarose, Defecting Dancer,  Destroyer and  Exattic.

If you can recall all of them then your time is misspent.

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Hi Dopey-my thoughts on Belardo were that he throws strongly to the Danehill physic. Smaller, compact and well balanced. He shows a lovely length of rein and overall is nicely in proportion. He tracks up well and extends into his walk, broad in the chest with plenty of room for heart and lungs. He seemed to have a very relaxed temperament, nothing seemed to phase him. Good comments from everyone around us who saw him. We have a very large mare and deliberately look for a type which will compliment her so for us he is one of our top picks this year. 

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53 minutes ago, ADM said:

Hi Dopey-my thoughts on Belardo were that he throws strongly to the Danehill physic. Smaller, compact and well balanced. He shows a lovely length of rein and overall is nicely in proportion. He tracks up well and extends into his walk, broad in the chest with plenty of room for heart and lungs. He seemed to have a very relaxed temperament, nothing seemed to phase him. Good comments from everyone around us who saw him. We have a very large mare and deliberately look for a type which will compliment her so for us he is one of our top picks this year. 

Well considered - thanks 

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5 hours ago, Baz (NZ) said:

Shamexpress future stallion star!

Hope they can get his fertility levels improved , may have a decent sized book so will be under more pressure.

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On 8/24/2017 at 11:12 AM, Tauhei Notts said:

Kirrama wrote about 17 new sires for 2017.  Go back thirty years there were 41 new sires in the 1987 breeding season

Some of the luminaries (sarc) were  Half Century, Happy Melody, High Ice, Jigg's Alarm, Keitel, Lucky Ring, Minstrel Blues, Northerly Native, Pin Puller, Royal Loch, Shannon, Shifnal Prince, Silver Prospector, Space Appeal, Trubisc, Voyager, Wham, Young Runaway, Archimedes, Blazing Keel, Blue Razor, Concert Dancer, Conquistarose, Defecting Dancer,  Destroyer and  Exattic.

If you can recall all of them then your time is misspent.

What an amazing post by you Steve !! I only read this tonight.Thank you.

Would be great to see The Studs' promotional material for those stallions.

41 new (first season )sires in 1987   What were the broodmare numbers that year  according to The Stud Book.?

Probably near double what we will have this 2018 season ?

Cheers

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Some of the Luminaries (sarc) were  Half Century, Happy Melody, High Ice, Jigg's Alarm, Keitel, Lucky Ring, Minstrel Blues, Northerly Native, Pin Puller, Royal Loch, Shannon, Shifnal Prince, Silver Prospector, Space Appeal, Trubisc, Voyager, Wham, Young Runaway, Archimedes, Blazing Keel, Blue Razor, Concert Dancer, Conquistarose, Defecting Dancer,  Destroyer and  Exattic.

Interesting that few if any of those names are in any way memorable, at best 1 or 2 may have been handy sires, the rest less so. You would have to look hard to find many of them in a pedigree today.

Food for thought when comparing to some at stud today.

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