Dear Professor Gerrard,
I guess you probably won’t read this, so I will copy this email to a lot of people and perhaps it will resonate with someone. I am writing to you because I am told you are the NZ Prime Minister’s Science Advisor. The truth I have found from my research over 15 years is as contained above in the two word documents. I will be happy to provide you with whatever further details you require. I am only an informed private citizen and only represent my own interests.
I am not a scientist but I had a long career as a consultant and turnaround specialist to and for distressed organisations and that led me into being asked to sort out various frauds and scams over a long international career as a top consultant and forensic accountant. I find there are many similarities between those frauds and the biggest ever – the “Great Anthropogenic Global Warming fraud” that you have unwittingly become peripheral player in.
Now retired from my profession, my method was always to look closely at the actions of people who are running organisations and almost inevitably, to be drawn into dispute between those governing an organisation’s actions and the reality of their circumstances. It is common to see people trying to fix the effects of a problem because they cannot get their heads around causation. Human frailty and greed is often present in their actions.
In the case of James Shaw and Jacinda Ardern, they were warned of their complicity to fraud in 2018 and have confessed to me they are – for whatever reason - accepting someone else’s dogma (the UN IPCC, no less). That is contrary to their fiduciary duty to the public of New Zealand, yet it is their excuse, and yet regardless of any excuse, a fraud is just a fraud.
Every day we see virtue signalling by people who know absolutely nothing about the scientific basis of the biggest madness of modern times. Today it just happens to be the turn of Lawyers...telling the NZ Herald how committed they are to what they do not realise is populist stupidity.
The inability to deal with causation always happens on an enterprise scale as well as on either a city scale or a country scale. Folk like Jacinda and James are easily persuaded to deal with the minutiae of effects because it is those effects that most sway the voters. This is also reflected in the actions of Simon Bridges and his team as well, and I mean no disrespect by the comment. But if/when I start firing off writs, all that will change.
I am involved, solely because I am a long term investor in international energy projects, mostly involving renewable and cutting edge technologies, so I unwittingly benefit from the incentives provided pursuant to the fraud. So with my fraud investigation experience and incentive to find out who is correct between the AGW alarmists and global warming sceptics, I have delved into the bowels of the science and find myself supporting an unpopular but empirically supported rejection of the UN IPCC line of lies and misdeeds. You and I find ourselves on different sides and yet I believe you and your career are the ones in the greatest danger.
If necessary I will begin litigation in 2020 to sort this out. But in 2019 I had two humanitarian projects that spun from the fraud which took up my time and suing a Government whose regulations I have a hand in administering for the last 23 years did not seem a sensible course of action. I have now been granted leave to retire as a Justice of the Peace for New Zealand effective 5 November 2019. I sought leave to retire despite enjoying my duties, so I can clear the decks for action. And one way or another, action is what we will see in 2020.
Even so, I am not sure whether I will need to go to the bother of litigation as I expect unforeseen and terribly unfortunate climate change effects may intervene to lay the fraud bare for all to see. Perhaps in New Zealand it is hard to imagine these occurring, because most of us never saw the warming that I witnessed the Northern hemisphere countries experiencing when I was commuting there in the 1980’s and 90’s. I then supported the UN IPCC position because I too was ignorant of causation and because it was not my problem to solve, so I never checked the facts. Similarly the recent temperature crash and shorter growing seasons that have been witnessed in North America, Asia and Europe over the last three years are not yet visible here. Even so, recent events have forced me into a study of the difference between weather and climate and the causation of both warming from 1975-1998, and the current prognosis for cooling.
New Zealand’s situation is pretty much an “outlier” on the world stage, as we enjoy a benign maritime climate. So while rapid heating was obvious in the UK there was little change in NZ – certainly not for an Auckland resident. I conclude that while Grand Solar Minimums affect the entire planet, the countries of the Southern hemisphere are less effected due to the fact that the sea takes many years to adjust to climate change. The huge land masses of the Northern hemisphere heated faster and will likely cool faster, yet inevitably we will catch up.
We are all familiar with the impacts of the GFC of 2008/9 but we are less familiar with the Arab Spring of the same era. The Arab Spring involved a shortage of various food staples and at the time, the common reaction in an attempt to achieve resolution to hunger and want, was the population rising up and over-throwing tyrants. Of course this was exacerbated in countries like Yemen, Egypt and Syria which had transitioned from being oil exporters to importers and necessarily residents’ fuel subsidies were being cut, impacting energy costs These, like our present government fuel taxes affect the lower paid productive sectors the most.
The Chinese have long experience with food shortages arising from the effects of natural climate change too. Their history of 2,000 years plus is well chronicled and well understood by members of the present central committee of the CCP. They know that famines occurred during particularly deep solar minimums that we refer to as Grand Solar Minimums, and that every time one of these occurred (every 170-200 years in regular cycles) the ruling dynasty would collapse. They are now affected by the same poor harvests as the USA, but cold climate crop losses for them have been exacerbated in 2019 by the predations of the Army Worm and the African Swine Haemorrhagic Fever. So they are today buying what protein they can, where they can, in the realisation that severe looming food shortages on a regional, if not global scale, have for them now arrived. The Russian Government’s preparations are also well under way and quite transparent.
I have no doubt that the Global Warming fraud will be destroyed when people realise what is really happening. The George Soros funded media and “Extinction Rebellion” campaigns (ably assisted by the other globalist billionaires) that have led to our news media reporting overseas heat waves and not reporting the cold events, has led to all time record cold in Moscow being ignored at the same time that the short Paris heat wave was being trumpeted in the media some months ago as evidence of global warming. But of greater concern has been the exclusion from the mainstream news media of the facts of 100 year cold and rain records being broken for the lower 48 states of the USA over the winter of 2018-9. Because their spring came 1-2 months late in 2019 and autumn then came under the guise of winter a month earlier than normal, the US crops have been extremely hard hit. The demonstrably shorter growing seasons for 2019 are simply a continuation of a shortening trend which began in 2017 , then 2018 (when it snowed in the Sahara and Quiet Quarter of Saudi Arabia in the winter....Yet not reported here). And like all climate related effects, the shortened growing periods are already duplicated in other countries/regions even if their agriculture stats are harder for us to come by... given the success of the Soros media campaigns.
If you want I can show you video footage of combine harvesters desperately working on the prairies during blizzards four weeks ago in the hope of saving a proportion of immature corn crops. In isolation, that is just anomalous weather, even if 2020’s global food security of supply was being lost in the process. But this video clip below should suffice because it shows the fact that successive winters during the unfolding Grand Solar Minimum will not likely be much better and more likely will be much worse.
This year even suppliers of seed will be unable to meet their contracts, which means serious carryover problems into 2020 for cropping farmers. Herds are being culled and yet beef prices are higher during the time of a massive cull, due to the desperate Chinese buying....
In 2008 the earth was entering the regular 11 year solar minimum between solar cycles numbered sc23 and sc24, which also caused cold climate crop losses. The eleven year cycles almost always deliver problems at the two years of minimum solar activity, but what is now happening is extraordinary. The data supporting NASA and NOAA’s change of heart can easily be found on their own web sites, or if you take the time to look at the main public web site that watches the causative climate factors arriving via the longer range solar cycles... www.spaceweather.com . (For this site to be of much use you will need to monitor it for a year or two to see how the data is trending.)
2019 is at the same point of the following 11 year solar minimum as in 2008, just that will likely be a deeper minimum than that of 2008 (again, as already forecast by NOAA and NASA). We are in descent into what is already being called by some, the “Eddy Minimum” ( after the name of the eminent astronomer John Eddy). We are today plumb between numbered cycles sc24 and sc25 and descending into a sort of hell as sc26 is expected to be the worst solar cycle of the unfolding series (or so the experts expect – while some others expect much longer and deeper cooling). The fact that the Orwellian news media doesn’t tell us what is happening is neither here nor there. We fraud investigators know where to look and how to discriminate between the pattern and the noise of chaos. Between informal news stories from the public and the official lies supported by supposedly “orthodox crooks” (conspiring to launder an image they both profit from and favour), the actual stats don’t lie, even if they are promptly hidden.
Empirically, a Grand Solar Minimum is past due from analysis of the timing of past cycles and arriving NOW...(you can follow this by regularly watching the stats unfold on spaceweather.com) The sunspot numbers are less – which means less electromagnetic solar activity Less electromagnetic solar activity – which means less Total Solar Irradiance hitting earth’s atmosphere The solar wind is less – which means an increased influx of galactic cosmic rays More cosmic rays – which means greater nucleation of water vapour into low level clouds Greater cloud cover – which correlates on balance with colder atmospheric temperatures
And right now we are approaching the biggest lows of sun spot numbers and the biggest highs of cosmic ray influx in 100 years. The biggest lows of Total Solar Irradiance don’t matter too much because the variation isn’t huge, even if it is orders of magnitude more significant than the “bought and paid for” UN IPCC computer models allow. The changed magnetosphere and cosmic ray influx is however a big deal. We Kiwis are OK because we are on the Pacific ring of fire. Sub-oceanic volcanoes seem obligingly doing what the land-based volcanoes are also doing and popping their corks. With four times as many sub-sea volcanoes as land-based, this could perhaps account for why the Pacific is anomalously warming, even though the bulk of warming inevitably comes from the sun’s rays. It ain’t just the sun that heats it – and certainly not at depths below the thermo cline where the solar rays don’t have a direct warming effect. So we Kiwis may not experience the cold of a Grand Solar Minimum until the tectonic plates settle down a bit. If you think I am wrong, then perhaps you would like to offer a credible alternative to what else was happening down below when huge rafts of pumice appeared on the surface of the ocean this year?
If I was sitting in your academic castle I would be reading what folk like Dr Habibullo Abdussamatov and Dr Valentina Zharkova have to say about the troubles to come. Because that is more likely where the causation for significant climate change lies, than the feeble efforts of mankind to burn the earth’s endowment of fossil fuels. Will it be a three times eleven year solar cycle minimum, like the Dalton Minimum, or will it be a six times eleven year cycle like the Maunder Minimum? Obviously no-one really knows for sure. Both were extremely cold and then there were far fewer humans to feed. But this brute is on its way and web sites like “Adapt2030” have been monitoring it for a few years...following on from the Russians.
You needn’t concern yourself about the legal bun fight to come, because the PM and her Minister of Climate Change will have to counter-punch on that during election year if it transpires that I feel obliged to litigate, and am permitted to do so. In the courts there are only three points for me to make and reinforce with the aid of empirical data and expert evidence...
1. It will be proven that changes in the atmospheric content of CO2 cannot be shown to have a discernible influence on climate change. 2. It will be proven that CO2 emissions are not only not a pollutant, but are essential for all life on earth. As a sub-set of this, it is demonstrable that CH4 emissions soon split into CO2 and H2O due to the aggressive atmospheric mixing. As a result there is 220 times as much CO2 in the atmosphere as CH4. Despite the false narrative, CH4 is a weaker greenhouse gas than even CO2. 3. It will be proven that attempts by humans to reduce atmospheric levels of CO2 cannot be shown to result in a discernible reduction in average global mean surface temperatures by 2100.
Fraud investigators do get to have a sense of humour and the most amusing part of the Great Global Warming Fraud for me is the amazing similarities between King Canute and James Shaw. As a child I never believed that someone could be as stupid as King Canute was reputed to be, in trying to turn back the tide. Minister James Shaw, by refusing to check the fake science supporting the Anthropogenic Global Warming theory, has proven that anything is possible if your ego is big enough and you are misled into believing you can control reality. My repeated warnings simply did not register with him.
Now we will either get bloody cold and bloody hungry, or we will hopefully get to fight this fraud out in court. I hate courtrooms but it is the option I prefer because there will otherwise be extreme levels of famine stalking the world as we go forward.
Earth’s atmosphere has yet to start significant cooling, but I am a patient man. The indicative evidence is in already. The jet streams are already out of flow, the anomalous weather typified during the Maunder and Dalton Minimums is appearing with the shorter growing seasons and worst of all, with the cold climate crop losses. And to put this stuff together in the words of someone who thinks it is all a grotesque anti-humanist conspiracy, it is simply stated as follows:
I don’t buy into the conspiracy stuff, but there is a point. The Limits to Growth teams were focused on delivery of global solutions to resource depletion, over-population etc. Hence there has been a stampede to implement climate change as if it were the “final solution” for the earth’s limitations versus human greed. The only result will be a huge waste of public money. This video presenter did what all the warming alarmists do, they cherry-pick the time scale for presenting the data. I don’t approve when a sceptic does it, any more than when a warming alarmist does it because it doesn’t inform the debate or clarify fact from fiction. It made my task much more difficult. But it is my job to work out which is which, just as it is the job of the impartial scientist or peer-reviewer. Given that the impact of the 2016 el Nino event is excluded from one temperature graph the picture presented is skewed to the presenter’s favour. He probably thinks, “So what the climate has since cooled”. Yet it isn’t the entire picture. But worse is available from almost every graph I have seen from the UN IPCC supporters. Public agencies and their deliberate fraud to curry favour with political masters is seemingly common (often in the guise of confirmation bias). Being now taken to extremes, the Great Anthropogenic Global Warming Fraud will destroy our civilisation if not reined in.
I am amazed that people with professional backgrounds and obvious common sense have failed to “smell a rat” after all the strident warnings of Armageddon not only failed to materialise many times over the last 40 years, but also the historic records had to be doctored to try to prove the UN IPCC fraud and yet never succeeded! Fool you once, shame on the UN IPCC. Fool you a dozen times, shame on you!
Professor Michael J. Kelly, one of New Zealand’s brightest minds has just given a speech to the British Global Warming Policy Foundation (as their 2019 keynote speaker). Because he is an engineer, the practical issues he raises should concern you. This video clip is an hour long...but it explains how stupid and misguided the actions of the present NZ Government really are...although he would be too polite to phrase it that way...
He also draws attention to the damage that this fraud will inflict on the general public’s opinion of science and scientists. This travesty makes Trofim Lysenko look like a saint by comparison.
Professor Gerrard, In the 1980’s I was an early fan of the work of the team that did the “Limits to Growth” modelling, and I am acutely aware of the fact that continued exponential growth in a world of large but finite resources is a nonsense. I agree we are past the sustainable carrying capacity of the earth in terms of our human growth aspirations and resource use. Yet we have a Government that just considered it better to permit the importation of foreign (traditional) wives, so as to enable the escallation of further population growth. Political expediency trumps logic, yet in order to advance their incomprehensible demands to cease using fossil fuels on which our entire civilisation is based, they tinker with keeping the population happy while denying the public the right to be informed about either the limits to our civilisation or the forces affecting climate change. Atmospheric CO2 content, as with CH4, is simply irrelevant to the grave problems we face and the human predicament when fossil fuels are no longer a cost-effective energy source.
To survive, each minute of each day we must all either breathe or die. Each adult human inhales 415ppm of CO2 and exhales 40,000ppm of CO2 (and in human exhalations there is a similarly reduced proportion of O2). Yet we can supposedly all fly around the world to attend climate change conferences while emitting a net 350kg per year of CO2 per person from our exhalations; and decide we are paying for it by killing dairy cows and growing trees. What arrant rubbish this is.
It is as stupid as Al Gore’s “virtue signalling” by owning an expensive coastal property while signalling impossible sea level rise, riding in his private jet to climate conferences and justifying that by profiting from ownership of a carbon trading business, from which he also claims he buys carbon credits. Meanwhile the average New Zealander is asked by the false local paragons of virtue (James and Jacinda) to stop eating meat and dairy products and we are even begrudged exhaling our personal 350kgs of CO2 per year.
Simply put, your Government supports lies to advance their own agenda. They allow the publication of the images of pollution from 3rd world countries which have effectively rejected the Paris Accords as if they were caused within our society – just so they can lie to us. They show us images of smoke stacks which falsely accuse the CO2 emissions of being pollution. They show the polar bears as if they were endangered when they are more numerous than since records began, and leave Inuit with no hope of being allowed to defend themselves against polar bear predations. Frauds are all built on lies like this and you have unwittingly become part of the lies. The longer frauds run, the more lies must always be furnished.
The fools in power accept the calculations of ignorant (but well paid) computer modellers who eliminate the fact that fossil fuels are finite and in the case of oil, long past the global peak of oil field discovery – with the world’s largest oil field (Saudi Ghawar) now in steep decline. They presume that despite the fact we have now picked the lowest hanging and best quality fruit, their calculations are based on never ending increases in fossil fuel production. So they project human CO2 emissions to trend upwards as if to infinity. The Chinese with their “Belt and Road” and Indians with their drive to raise living standards will temporarily escalate the rate of resource utilisation. Yet it will have no significant impact on the climate and just result in the human world running out sooner.
They ignore the huge impact of clouds and the fact that water vapour is not just 20 times more by volume than CO2, and has 12 times more potent thermal effect as a “greenhouse gas” than CO2, its sudden change in phase introduces massive weather effects with the changes in state between gas and liquid and solid. Yet the doctrinaire UN IPCC reports suggest that changing levels of atmospheric CO2 drive everything else.
A horticulturalist who checks the sky before he/she goes to bed at night to look for the extent of cloud cover is not looking to the heavens to see how much CO2 is there, but for whether cloudiness will eliminate the chance of frost to damage his/her plants and fruit crop. With cloud cover the infra-red heat radiation from earth’s surface/atmosphere is greatly reduced. The computer modellers don’t think about the fact that CH4 is only 1.8ppm of the atmosphere and has a minute warming capability at that. Nor do they understand that oxygen, the food of life for humanity, rapidly oxidises all CH4 emissions so they change into CO2 and H2O. CH4 is totally irrelevant to the climate debate and the climate debate is irrelevant to human planning.
We must simply learn to cope with the climate we are given. In practical terms, the growing of grapes in Central Otago will eventually become impossible during a Grand Solar Minimum, just as the growing of grapes in the UK disappeared altogether when the Maunder Minimum arrived. Dealing with these effects is the proper business of governments, certainly not doing King Canute impersonations. It doesn’t matter how many billions are paid to universities and computer modellers, the fraud on farmers is ridiculous, unnecessary and egregious.
And yet your support and that of the venal computer modelling industry is essential for Jacinda and James to perpetrate their deliberate if ideologically appealing fraud. We should join Mr Trump and withdraw from the Paris Accords.
Please inform yourself and then isolate yourself from the fraudsters and their criminality before it is too late. You must consider your options wisely because at this point in time you are a part of the fraud, having attempted to justify it in writing to Mr Morgan. On the other hand, I believe you should check the fates of people like Dr Nils Axel Moerner (sea levels), Dr Judith Curry, Dr Peter Ridd (Gt Barrier Reef), Dr Susan Crockford (polar bear numbers). All have been destroyed by the fraudsters despite being right in point of fact. It doesn’t always pay to stand against frauds - particular in this case, one which is worth about USD1-1.5 trillion per year. The globalist billionaires have a lot riding on their support for the fraud. They control the news media.
And remember this. Fraud is not a popularity contest, it is about facts. It can be proven that CO2 has not demonstrably affected climate change and cannot do so. That truth is the basis of this government’s credibility gone for good.
Just a Concerned Citizen