Book 2 Bloodbath

[chevy86 2,710]

Notwithstanding a few $100K sales Book 2 has started as a disaster for most smaller breeders. Ribchesters scorned along with a few other sires from what I have seen today. Genuine frustration and disappointment displayed by the auctioneers I felt.

[Leggy 4,096]

Well the clearance rate, median and average are all a bit higher than last year. I'm not sure why anyone would expect them to be significantly higher.

[Pam Robson 1,551]

I feel that vendors were possibly more realistic in their expectations under the older format of Premier, Select and Festival.

Lower offers, although disappointing for breeders, were expected in Festival at least.    Many of the offerings I saw yesterday would have been more realistically sold on Gavelhouse, at a fraction of the preparation costs.

Surprising, as said, to see Ribchester seemingly not wanted.

[chevy86 2,710]

8 hours ago, Leggy said:

 I'm not sure why anyone would expect them to be significantly higher.

 

Well we are supposedly heading into racing nirvana with massive stakes, amazing new tracks, switched on betting agencies, Winston etc. What other enticements are necessary to stimulate buying? I suspect all the hype will prove to be a false dawn.

Instead breeders have faced rampant inflation in raising bloodstock (NZB sales entry and commissions, preparers increased invoices, transport costs, etc) right through to Sales day where they are met by a few dummy bids which don't even reach the often miserable reserve prices. I'm amazed anybody would want to put themselves through the trauma of selling in the secondary market at Karaka.Very dispiriting to say the least .

[scooby3051 10,976]

I went out there yesterday looking for a filly to race and was sadly disappointed, many of the 50 I looked at were very small and would not ever be big enough to race. I agree Pam at least if you went to festival you knew that you may find a type without pedigree, now all are mixed in together. Point is some should not be going to any sale JMO.

[Leggy 4,096]

1 hour ago, chevy86 said:

 

Well we are supposedly heading into racing nirvana with massive stakes, amazing new tracks, switched on betting agencies, Winston etc. What other enticements are necessary to stimulate buying? I suspect all the hype will prove to be a false dawn.

Instead breeders have faced rampant inflation in raising bloodstock (NZB sales entry and commissions, preparers increased invoices, transport costs, etc) right through to Sales day where they are met by a few dummy bids which don't even reach the often miserable reserve prices. I'm amazed anybody would want to put themselves through the trauma of selling in the secondary market at Karaka.Very dispiriting to say the least .

It sounds like you and/or vendors may have high expectations based on costs as you and Freda have suggested.

Fact is median for Book One was down 8%. Book 2, Day1, median was up 15%. Seems to me given the quality of horses available and the market context, that's not too bad. You can't value stock based on the cost of production as you seem to be doing. Every farmer knows that.

[Nerula 1,403]

Once I bought into a three fillies syndicate all cheapies bought by a very good trainer. None of them were any good or rather didnt want to try. All were given away.

Now I think it May be better to go for a smaller share of one much more expensive. If a filly there will be some residual value if well enough bred

[blackcaviar56 48]

I don't know what anyone else thinks but surely the big issue is what's going to happen with all of these book 2 and similar horses now there's no Singapore and Macau. I noticed 2 have been sold to China, nothing to Malaysia or Korea the only markets for these horses. I'm sure also it must affect the owners and trainers who have these particular type of horses  and relied on selling them through trials and keeping themselves afloat by doing so. What's going to happen now?

Or am I over exaggerating it ..

 

 

 

[Leggy 4,096]

4 hours ago, Nerula said:

Once I bought into a three fillies syndicate all cheapies bought by a very good trainer. None of them were any good or rather didnt want to try. All were given away.

Now I think it May be better to go for a smaller share of one much more expensive. If a filly there will be some residual value if well enough bred

Do you have any data to back that up? It's not what the studies I have seen conclude.

https://tomwilson1986.medium.com/moneyball-2-finding-value-at-the-yearling-sales-8e6c6e3635b3

 

[Leggy 4,096]

8 hours ago, Pam Robson said:

 Many of the offerings I saw yesterday would have been more realistically sold on Gavelhouse, at a fraction of the preparation costs.

While there is considerable advantage in having numerous options gathered in one place for inspection, that may be a better and more economical venue for buyers in that price range too.

[Breeder 609]

Thanks for the Tom Wilson link, Leggy. Really interesting stuff.

I was surprised at his comments on Irish black type. My understanding is/was that there were significantly more black type races in Ireland as a percentage of races run compared to elsewhere. I obviously had that wrong.

[Leggy 4,096]

I saw that as well Breeder. I think he has Ireland at the wrong end of the scale.

Country          Total Races / Total black type/G1/	%/ %

Ireland	1234	126	13	10.21%	1.05%
Germany	1156	86	7	7.44%	0.61%
New Zealand	2423	150	21	6.19%	0.87%
Brazil	3100	164	26	5.29%	0.84%
South Africa	3674	188	29	5.12%	0.79%
France	4922	241	28	4.90%	0.57%
Argentina	5322	234	40	4.40%	0.75%
United Kingdom	6951	295	36	4.24%	0.52%
Italy	2024	76	1	3.75%	0.05%
Peru	1896	60	8	3.16%	0.42%
Australia	19409	597	74	3.08%	0.38%
Canada	3126	62	7	1.98%	0.22%
Chile	5183	98	17	1.89%	0.33%
United States of America	36116	625	106	1.73%	0.29%
Japan	16732	233	25	1.39

[Hi Ho Silver 785]

2 hours ago, blackcaviar56 said:

I don't know what anyone else thinks but surely the big issue is what's going to happen with all of these book 2 and similar horses now there's no Singapore and Macau. I noticed 2 have been sold to China, nothing to Malaysia or Korea the only markets for these horses. I'm sure also it must affect the owners and trainers who have these particular type of horses  and relied on selling them through trials and keeping themselves afloat by doing so. What's going to happen now?

Or am I over exaggerating it ..

 

 

 

A good question.  With the stakes up for at least a couple of years I hope these horses considered lesser lights get the chance in New Zealand.  Not all of our best horses have also been top selling lots.

[Nerula 1,403]

1 hour ago, Leggy said:

Do you have any data to back that up? It's not what the studies I have seen conclude.

https://tomwilson1986.medium.com/moneyball-2-finding-value-at-the-yearling-sales-8e6c6e3635b3

 

No I dont and I read some of that piece but that guy wouid be fishing in a very foreign pond.

You would have to know that a tyre kicker would be advised to be a follower and get involved with an expert trainer. Also one good enough to realise the potential of the animal. Then does the trainer have the ability to run a campaign offshore. Theres type and family traits of the horse and  many other factors an expert would weigh up.

Its just part of the game of life. Play the odds as best you can. I do OK

[Insider 3,973]

5 hours ago, Hi Ho Silver said:

A good question.  With the stakes up for at least a couple of years I hope these horses considered lesser lights get the chance in New Zealand.  Not all of our best horses have also been top selling lots.

Quite the contrary if you looked at the published report over the last 5 years from one of the top sales.

[Breeder 609]

I remember reading a comment from Mark Corcoran about Verry Ellegant. He said if she had gone through a yearling sale she would not have sold for much because she did not look very good at that stage of her deleopment.

[Leggy 4,096]

39 minutes ago, Insider said:

Quite the contrary if you looked at the published report over the last 5 years from one of the top sales.

What report is that?

[Tauhei Notts 1,413]

Am I getting the wrong end of the stick?

I had seen the huge improvement in stakes and bet a man $200 that the Book One median would rise at least 10%.  After Day One I was laughing my tits off.  Then Day Two, then Day Three.  $200 down the gurgler.

The breeding industry has had its bad days, but from what I've seen this week, contrary to all the great news I had seen in the past two months; I thought the sales would have gone a hell of a lot better.

My $200 is peanuts to the vendors at Karaka.

I wonder if that awful news about Ellerslie, with the mouth watering level of stakes, being close to being called off because of the slippery track; I wonder if that has had an awful impact on the later days of the sale, once the facts came out into the open.

[Insider 3,973]

32 minutes ago, Leggy said:

What report is that?

One published the other day somewhere. Could have been on the Breeding thread. I am sure that you would have seen it.  

[Nerula 1,403]

And Ellis has bought 7 Karaka Million winners. He is buying the wrong ones? Dont quote us Gingernuts

[Hi Ho Silver 785]

I would have thought the stakes increase would have been an incentive to buy a yearling.  There were some cheaper ones to get involved in.  Purchases from any of the days are eligible for the Karaka Millions races so, anyone can have a go.

It cannot be disputed that David Ellis has bought a good amount of yearlings that have excelled as race horses at this time of the year.  I don't think that is a mere coincidence.

Racing is an amazing leveller which is also good.  It means winners can come from a small breeder or a thrifty purchase.  Imagine a boring racing scene where results were determined by purchase price.