William Reid Stakes field…..tougher for Imperatriz ?

[nomates 3,609]

31 minutes ago, Leggy said:

And how do you assess jockeys and adjust your pricing accordingly?

Even for you that is a rather obtuse question . Not bloody hard to assess the difference in jockeys riding in any given race .

And don't ask how I assess the difference or I might explode at how inane that question is .

If you can't work out in any given race that specific jockeys are lengths ahead of other hence give a horse an advantage then I think you should just stick to lotto .

[Leggy 4,096]

5 minutes ago, Contentious said:

I am like you WD - I did not know that. Maybe you would have to be involved with the stable to know OR maybe a Trackside interviewer 

 

[Memphis3 1,267]

34 minutes ago, Leggy said:

What do you mean by "overall class of the race" Memphis? And how do you assess jockeys and adjust your pricing accordingly?

If a horse is obviously better than the others on form. Draw not as crucial. Top ten jockeys win more often 

[Leggy 4,096]

2 minutes ago, nomates said:

Even for you that is a rather obtuse question . Not bloody hard to assess the difference in jockeys riding in any given race .

And don't ask how I assess the difference or I might explode at how inane that question is .

If you can't work out in any given race that specific jockeys are lengths ahead of other hence give a horse an advantage then I think you should just stick to lotto .

Might not be hard for you, but I'm interested in learning more about how to do that. I thought that's what these forums were about.

[nomates 3,609]

Just now, Leggy said:

Might not be hard for you, but I'm interested in learning more about how to do that. I thought that's what these forums were about.

So you can't work out that if OPB is on a form runner drawn 10 out of 10 that he is still worth backing against the second fav who has drawn 2 but has a jockey with a 1 in 10 strike rate , simple equation . 

[Leggy 4,096]

2 minutes ago, nomates said:

So you can't work out that if OPB is on a form runner drawn 10 out of 10 that he is still worth backing against the second fav who has drawn 2 but has a jockey with a 1 in 10 strike rate , simple equation . 

OK. So you assess jockeys by strike rate?

[Memphis3 1,267]

Usually but some jockeys stand out in specific races. ie Bob Skelton. Sam Weatherly is ok on stayers currently. 

[nomates 3,609]

7 minutes ago, Leggy said:

OK. So you assess jockeys by strike rate?

Well it's a pretty solid measuring stick I would have thought , OPB on 1 in 4 , Kennedy and McNab , 1st and 2nd on the premiership , both under 1 in 6 , fairly obvious correlation I think .

And please don't suggest those numbers are because they get on the best horses , they get on the best horses because they get the job done .

Please tell me how you assess a jockeys ability .

[Pure Steel 1,303]

17 minutes ago, Leggy said:

OK. So you assess jockeys by strike rate?

I'm pretty sure you can take some on their 'style' as well.

JMac for example has been the yardstick and gets horses home that others wouldn't in his great sense of timing and finishing.

The last COX Plate he won , when most others  wouldn't and even Democracy Manifest in the last race last week got the photo with a JMac Special as well.

Jamie K and Mickey D have good style too in Victoria and in NZ Craig Grylls seems the best.

the young bloke that popped to Aus for a while looked good . Wiremu Pinn. hope he gets some good rides again. or do apprentices fall by the wayside in NZ when the claim goes ? that seems to happen a bit in Aus sadly .. and even the good apprentices end up at the Sat country meetings eventually. 

 

[Pete Lane 639]

1 hour ago, Pure Steel said:

I'm pretty sure you can take some on their 'style' as well.

JMac for example has been the yardstick and gets horses home that others wouldn't in his great sense of timing and finishing.

The last COX Plate he won , when most others  wouldn't and even Democracy Manifest in the last race last week got the photo with a JMac Special as well.

Jamie K and Mickey D have good style too in Victoria and in NZ Craig Grylls seems the best.

the young bloke that popped to Aus for a while looked good . Wiremu Pinn. hope he gets some good rides again. or do apprentices fall by the wayside in NZ when the claim goes ? that seems to happen a bit in Aus sadly .. and even the good apprentices end up at the Sat country meetings eventually. 

 

W Pinn has a few issues with his riding. Just back from a lengthy suspension.

[Leggy 4,096]

1 hour ago, nomates said:

So you can't work out that if OPB is on a form runner drawn 10 out of 10 that he is still worth backing against the second fav who has drawn 2 but has a jockey with a 1 in 10 strike rate , simple equation . 

No. For me whether I would back either totally depends on my assessment of their chance of winning cf. the available price. I don't consider either the draw or the jockey in that assessment.

[Leggy 4,096]

1 hour ago, nomates said:

Well it's a pretty solid measuring stick I would have thought , OPB on 1 in 4 , Kennedy and McNab , 1st and 2nd on the premiership , both under 1 in 6 , fairly obvious correlation I think .

And please don't suggest those numbers are because they get on the best horses , they get on the best horses because they get the job done .

Please tell me how you assess a jockeys ability .

I don't really bother much. Certainly wouldn't use a statistic like strike rate. I don't really use statistics.

[nomates 3,609]

1 hour ago, Leggy said:

No. For me whether I would back either totally depends on my assessment of their chance of winning cf. the available price. I don't consider either the draw or the jockey in that assessment.

Fair enough , but to not to take the jockey into consideration in NZ and especially the SI tells me you are a man with far too much money or not enough respect for the money you have .

I refuse to bet in the SI the standard is that bad , there is simply no consistency to the way horses or races are run , not a lot better elsewhere in NZ but it's diabolical down south . 

[Gruff 2,807]

3 hours ago, nomates said:

Well it's a pretty solid measuring stick I would have thought , OPB on 1 in 4 , Kennedy and McNab , 1st and 2nd on the premiership , both under 1 in 6 , fairly obvious correlation I think .

And please don't suggest those numbers are because they get on the best horses , they get on the best horses because they get the job done .

Please tell me how you assess a jockeys ability .

I like to assess a jockeys ability on getting the job done relative to ability. Ive seen Mc Nabs brilliance .Wow. and then see Craig Grylls. Makes you wonder

[We're Doomed 4,873]

14 hours ago, nomates said:

Fair enough , but to not to take the jockey into consideration in NZ and especially the SI tells me you are a man with far too much money or not enough respect for the money you have .

I refuse to bet in the SI the standard is that bad , there is simply no consistency to the way horses or races are run , not a lot better elsewhere in NZ but it's diabolical down south . 

Interestingly enough, in the days when I used to follow racing much more closely than I do these days, some of the worst jockeys were in the NI, often in the CD. I never really used to have any Southern jockeys on my "wouldn't touch with a barge pole" list.

And the problem in the SI is not the jockeys as much as the shocking programming. That is why form can be inconsistent. And form is equally inconsistent in the CD where a horse can fail in an $18,500 race at New Plymouth and then come out and win a $40,000 at Trentham. And vice versa. That would seldom happen in Australia.

Half the horses in any given race in the South aren't racing over the distance they would prefer or in their preferred class or after an ideal gap, but they have to take any opportunities available to them. If they wait for the perfect race coming up next week they have every chance of being balloted out.

I feel quite sad when I see a typical $18,500 low key race in the south with 12 starters and six of the jockeys are from the NI, often the very top jockeys like Kennedy and Doyle. How on earth are southern jockeys to gain experience and skills if they can't even get a ride at a low key meeting? Some of them have to drive 6 hours to get two rides. It must be a pretty dispiriting occupation. And when they ride at certain tracks with about six people in attendance and no atmosphere they must wonder why they bother.

[Peter R S 413]

On 3/20/2024 at 8:28 PM, Leggy said:

I don't consider either the draw or the jockey in that assessment.

Are you kidding?

[Insider 3,973]

39 minutes ago, Peter R S said:

Are you kidding?

Watch it Peter. Once you start debating with Leggy you start to go crazy. That’s why I have had to put a self imposed ban on myself from debating with him for 7 days.

 Be careful is all I can say!