Aaron The Anchor 236 Report post Posted November 2, 2023 $3.50 is absolutely stupid money imo. What's the hype around this horse? I haven't been following to be fair but as far as cup odds go it is short! JJ Flash 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TurnyTom 1,542 Report post Posted November 2, 2023 No Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Houlahan's Dream 541 Report post Posted November 2, 2023 Pretty impressive euro form, good figures in those top races. Wasn't Deuville about a $4 shot last year, came fourth? Last fave to win was.....Fiorente? Could be Green Moon/Viewed/Penzance type of year! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bimbo 734 Report post Posted November 2, 2023 56 minutes ago, Houlahan's Dream said: Pretty impressive euro form, good figures in those top races. Are you referring to the Group 1 hurdle races? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Houlahan's Dream 541 Report post Posted November 2, 2023 No Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Houlahan's Dream 541 Report post Posted November 2, 2023 That Ascot win where he brained a decent field over 2800...was impressive. On 10/7/2023 at 7:21 PM, say no more said: Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
stodge 1,951 Report post Posted November 2, 2023 They talked to David Casey, the ex jump jockey who is Willie Mullins's Assistant Trainer and Travelling Head Lad, and he emphasised VAUBAN would be happy on fast ground. He galloped away from ABSURDE in the well-touted bit of track work. He thrashed ABSURDE seven lengths in the Copper House Handicap at Ascot in June on officially Good ground. ABSURDE gets 4 lbs but that's nowhere near enough. VALIANT KING is 1lb better off the Naas win but the view over here is the trip was too short and the ground not right for VAUBAN whose best jumping form is on reasonable ground. I remember Rich Ricci saying after Cheltenham the horse was going to be campaigned as a dual purpose type and Flemington was probably in mind even then when he was on offer at 33s. He's no certainty and 9/4 up here is very skinny. We don't know the draw yet either. It will be nice to have an English Derby winner in the year - step forward the winner of the 2020 renewal, SERPENTINE, on offer at 50s. Pak Star and jack 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Houlahan's Dream 541 Report post Posted November 2, 2023 30 minutes ago, stodge said: They talked to David Casey, the ex jump jockey who is Willie Mullins's Assistant Trainer and Travelling Head Lad, and he emphasised VAUBAN would be happy on fast ground. He galloped away from ABSURDE in the well-touted bit of track work. He thrashed ABSURDE seven lengths in the Copper House Handicap at Ascot in June on officially Good ground. ABSURDE gets 4 lbs but that's nowhere near enough. VALIANT KING is 1lb better off the Naas win but the view over here is the trip was too short and the ground not right for VAUBAN whose best jumping form is on reasonable ground. I remember Rich Ricci saying after Cheltenham the horse was going to be campaigned as a dual purpose type and Flemington was probably in mind even then when he was on offer at 33s. He's no certainty and 9/4 up here is very skinny. We don't know the draw yet either. It will be nice to have an English Derby winner in the year - step forward the winner of the 2020 renewal, SERPENTINE, on offer at 50s. All very sound analysis. I just watched the Ebor - seems like Scriptwriter (More Felons) goes for an outside run, gets baulked, basically stuck for a run. Only gets free with 200 to go. Carried 61 that day, carried 55 at Geelong, was very strong over last 400 there to just dip out. Drops to 50.5 (!) for MC..... kind of has a Max Dynamite/Red Cadeux feel for me. No champion but perhaps Australia suits him based on Geelong? 30s at the moment. Weirder things have happened on the first Tuesday in November..... Gruff 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
stodge 1,951 Report post Posted November 2, 2023 4 minutes ago, Houlahan's Dream said: All very sound analysis. I just watched the Ebor - seems like Scriptwriter (More Felons) goes for an outside run, gets baulked, basically stuck for a run. Only gets free with 200 to go. Carried 61 that day, carried 55 at Geelong, was very strong over last 400 there to just dip out. Drops to 50.5 (!) for MC..... kind of has a Max Dynamite/Red Cadeux feel for me. No champion but perhaps Australia suits him based on Geelong? 30s at the moment. Weirder things have happened on the first Tuesday in November..... Up here, VAUBAN is rated 114 and MORE FELONS 106 - in the Cup, VAUBAN gives 10 lbs so they should finish very close. I sometimes think MORE FELONS finds his own trouble and while I agree 33s is a knocking each way bet, I'm going to wait for the draw. I just see him getting stuck in traffic and flying home. jack and Houlahan's Dream 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike28 182 Report post Posted November 3, 2023 $3.50 is crazy money it will pay $4.50 plus on the tote on the day and even thats to short for mine Houlahan's Dream 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Insider 3,973 Report post Posted November 3, 2023 1 hour ago, mike28 said: $3.50 is crazy money it will pay $4.50 plus on the tote on the day and even thats to short for mine $4.50 plus or I am a Dutch Lady. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaneMcAlister 1,425 Report post Posted November 3, 2023 Ponderosa8, Littletramp, Insider and 7 others 10 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Houlahan's Dream 541 Report post Posted November 3, 2023 Hope it salutes for you Insider 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bimbo 734 Report post Posted November 3, 2023 Nice work Shane. Wish I'd done the same. Make sure you lay it for $100 now. It will cost you less than $400 and you'l get your stake back if the heavens open up and Gold Trip knocks you off. I'm going to wait for this predicted drift back up to $4.50 before having a bet so it's likely I'll just be watching this year and helping to cheer your bet home. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pak Star 716 Report post Posted November 4, 2023 On 11/3/2023 at 7:46 PM, mike28 said: $3.50 is crazy money it will pay $4.50 plus on the tote on the day and even thats to short for mine Already in from $3.50 to $3.20 since the field was finalised. TAB currently offering a boosted $4.00 special though. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Houlahan's Dream 541 Report post Posted November 5, 2023 Saw a piece on Racenet from Robbie Waterhouse about how none of the Euro horses starting below $5 have run a place - mentioned about five of them. Interesting stat. Personally I am wary of that first Aussie run - that will be a hell of a crowd, firm track and compact field. Lots can go wrong but he does seem a very nice horse. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike28 182 Report post Posted November 5, 2023 notable drifter now. my prediction a few days ago when it was 3.50 ff that it would pay $4.50 at least on the tote . now im thinking maybe $5 will be in at that price. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bimbo 734 Report post Posted November 5, 2023 1 hour ago, Houlahan's Dream said: Saw a piece on Racenet from Robbie Waterhouse about how none of the Euro horses starting below $5 have run a place - mentioned about five of them. Interesting stat. Personally I am wary of that first Aussie run - that will be a hell of a crowd, firm track and compact field. Lots can go wrong but he does seem a very nice horse. Can't be a meaningful stat when odds he's offering are the same as Ladbrokes, Betr, Sportsbet. etc. Fresh up in Australia and a big field are challenges for Willie and Ryan to overcome, but both are quite good at what they do. Crowd shouldn't be an issue as there were over 40,000 at Ascot when he won. Two wins from three starts on a good track. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Houlahan's Dream 541 Report post Posted November 5, 2023 He meant, historically the Euro faves have flopped. Deauville, Spanish Mission etc. Mullins crew is hyper professional as you point out, but I am laying it. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
stodge 1,951 Report post Posted November 5, 2023 Drawn three with GOLD TRIP on one side and SOULCOMBE on the other. WITHOUT A FIGHT drawn 16. Money up here for the Moonee Valley Gold Cup winner CLEVELAND who used to be with Aidan O'Brien back in the day. Back then, he landed a huge punt when winning the 2022 Chester Cup and was a close second in the 2022 renewal of the race at Ascot VAUBAN won this year. He's got 8 stone 3 lbs which is no weight but he's in the car park at 23. FUTURE HISTORY is 7 lbs better for three quarters of a length and has Hollie Doyle riding off just 7 stone 12 lbs. Drawn in the midfield at 13. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike28 182 Report post Posted November 5, 2023 i just watched the race were vauban won by 7.5 lengths or something it seemed to me like they were walking in that race and the overall time seemed a bit on the slow side i could be wrong. maybe the tracks at ascot etc play a little different and run a little slower not sure. i havent seen anything in the sectionals .or anything else to suggest that this horse is an absolute stand out does anyone have any thoughts on this cheers. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohokaman 5,850 Report post Posted November 5, 2023 38 minutes ago, mike28 said: i just watched the race were vauban won by 7.5 lengths or something it seemed to me like they were walking in that race and the overall time seemed a bit on the slow side i could be wrong. maybe the tracks at ascot etc play a little different and run a little slower not sure. i havent seen anything in the sectionals .or anything else to suggest that this horse is an absolute stand out does anyone have any thoughts on this cheers. Been a drifter the last couple of days while stablemate Absurde has been backed from $21 into $12. Zac Purton rides. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pak Star 716 Report post Posted November 5, 2023 14 hours ago, mike28 said: notable drifter now. my prediction a few days ago when it was 3.50 ff that it would pay $4.50 at least on the tote . now im thinking maybe $5 will be in at that price. Not the first time a drift has made a mockery of the TABs "boosted odds" too Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike28 182 Report post Posted November 6, 2023 28 minutes ago, Pakaraka Star said: Not the first time a drift has made a mockery of the TABs "boosted odds" too they have a couple at the moment cleveland $9 a place boosted is paying 9.50 at bet365 will pay 9 on the tote easy. on another note i got vow and declare top 5 boosted at 4.6 now is 4.20 boosted so happy about that. if there's a late scratching you might get value with cleveland. boosted odds are good better than nothing but not all of them provide value. Pak Star 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Basil brush 196 Report post Posted November 6, 2023 I got Vow And Declare boosted to $5.50 for top 5 at midday yesterday so dropping Significantly Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
