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chiknsmack
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Posts posted by chiknsmack
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Here's the scoreboard for the World's Best Jockey: https://www.ifhaonline.org/resources/Top_100_G1_Races_Schedule_and_Results_2023_2024.pdf
- Black Kirrama, Pegasus 9 and Breeder
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4 hours ago, jack said:
Two pinhooks of relevance to the competition. Jack has the Proisir x Polson filly who was the second most expensive yearling in Book 2, and I have the Ardrossan x Venetian Raider colt who was the joint tenth most expensive in Book 2 (not KM nominated unfortunately, though only two of my four Book 2 picks are).
The star of the show will be the I Am Invincible colt from Shillelagh. If that pedigree wasn't enough, he broke ten seconds for his breeze and looked like an absolute beast in doing so.
- jack, RacingJackReacher and Black Kirrama
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18 minutes ago, Pak Star said:
Unless hes chosen to ride Rosehill, im guessing Zac has been handed the same treatment with Stefi
Bates is on Docklands in the MacKinnon (who is also nommed for Sydney but with no jockey listed there).
Lloyd is riding at Rosehill, where they have two million-dollar-plus races for some reason.
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15 hours ago, stodge said:
As it's being reported up here, the line is there was no actual injury to JAN BRUEGHEL but a risk of injury due to the horse's ongoing physical development (the inference for me is had he presented as a 5-y-o, say, fully developed, there'd be no problem).
Certainly being immature doesn't help the RV vets fail to find any possible injury concerns, but being a 5yo is no guarantee (Muramasa is sound as a bell and passed his trotup before the vets very quickly because it was so obvious he was fine, yet because "there may be a shadow that could possibly develop into a stress fracture in the future" in his CT scans he's now under an embargo and barred from racing).
Maybe that's a reason for Via Sistina to skip the race; it's not worth taking the risk that the panel of RV vets find a concern with a patently fully sound horse and end its season/career.
You're also probably correct that, if the Victoria Derby field were subject to the same scrutiny, they would all be found to have maturity-related risks and there wouldn't be any runners left to hold the race.
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The most recent episode of Tara Talks Racing included a long discussion with Jo McKinnon about their experience at Equimillion.
https://thoroughbreds.podbean.com/e/tara-talks-racing-october-14/
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What's the land like between Omahu Road, SH2, and the river? I assume it'd be cheaper than the current racecourse land which is surrounded by houses in Hastings proper, and you could buy a patch that would fit a track with a proper 1600m start point.
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"There was naturally plenty of attention on Broadsiding’s unplaced run in the Caulfield Guineas, where his 97.3 rating marked a notable drop from the 102.5 he posted in his Group 1 Golden Rose win. It’s his lowest rating in his last five starts. With the winner, Private Life, running a 99.5, it’s clear this was a race that slipped through Broadsiding's grasp. Whenever a strongly fancied runner is beaten, there’s inevitable scrutiny from connections, punters, and the media. While some pointed to potential track bias as a reason, that theory doesn’t hold up under analysis. Evaporate, at $17, came from a similar position in the field, raced wider on the track, and still finished ahead of Broadsiding who was almost ten times shorter at $1.80. Data on race position, pace and results show there was no on-pace bias on the day.
Broadsiding’s troubles began when Evaporate kept him on the fence, limiting his ability to make a move when he needed to. After finding a path behind Evaporate off the fence around the bend, he couldn’t quicken as effectively as that horse. A bump with Angel Capital on the outside (who had also sprinted a little better) further disrupted his momentum, costing him ground. After balancing up, Broadsiding worked home solidly but I wouldn’t say it was the powerful finish that he’s become known for. It should be noted that the leader/winner Private Life ran a very slow final 200m, which was conducive to those off the speed making up ground. On that, in a speed rating sense against the standards for each distance, Broadsiding's last 200m was only 27th fastest of the meeting. He did not power to the line like an unlucky loser. Six of the ten fastest last 200m ratings at the meeting were wider on the track than Broadsiding was over the final 200m. All of the evidence says nothing about the track can be blamed for him not finishing faster from the 400m mark, especially when he had spent more than half the race on the rails, which many believe was an advantage on the day, even if back in the field. Ultimately, it appears Broadsiding simply wasn’t at his best on the day and add to that, he didn’t have the best of luck, which was a minor contributing factor. That’s a regular occurrence for horses who settle back, locked away on the fence."
https://www.racing.com/news/2024-10-14/news-review-dan-osullivans-ratings-wrap-141024
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Track bias does exist. When the rail is out a certain distance or there are certain weather conditions, it advantages horses running in a particular position in running or in the straight. There wasn't much/any bias at Caulfield on Saturday, but to say there's never any bias (including at Caulfield) is just incorrect.
The best predictor of what will happen in a race is the closing prices. When the market closes everyone who has any information or knowledge has put their money where their mouth is, so it is a complete distillation of all the knowledge of all the participants in the betting market. Savvy punters will wait until late on to back their horses (both to avoid putting a bet on before something changes like the weather, a scratching, or a jockey change, AND to hide their information from the rest of the market). Late moves aren't a perfect predictor of a horse having a better chance of winning than its odds reflected five minutes ago; if the move is because Trackside interviewed an overconfident trainer or a commentator has tipped a horse out (or mentioned a track bias that doesn't exist) then the late money is probably dumb money, but otherwise late money on a horse is usually smart money and you should pay attention. (That said, by the time the money is on the odds have probably been adjusted to a point such that you've missed out on the value, so if you follow the move you're probably too late.)
- Chris Wood, Integrity101 and wph
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On 10/14/2024 at 8:15 PM, We're Doomed said:
That wasn't really my point. I merely asked which horses might be "lucky" to be there who wouldn't get a start if it was a traditional group one. We often see pre race favourites fail to get a start because they are too far down in the weights. There was a race last Saturday, from Sydney I think, where the pre race fav was a ballot and failed to get into the field.
The obvious place to look is at the ballots and the $2m Sydney Stakes on the undercard. The ballots (Overpass, Think About It, Southport Tycoon, and Mazu) are rated from 115 to 111, which is higher than the four 3yos and Joliestar.
Outside the ballots (who are at the top of the page in the Sydney Stakes) there are two more in that race rated 111 (Airman and King of Sparta) and the mare Lady Laguna rated 113.
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1. Te Rapa R9 1,12
2. Caulfield R3 1,10
3. Caulfield R4 2,14
4. Caulfield R5 1,11
5. Caulfield R6 4,6
6. Caulfield R8 5 bb
7. Rosehill R4 5 bb
8. Rosehill R5 8,11
9. Rosehill R6 5,6
10. Rosehill R7 1,4
11. Rosehill R8 10,16
12. Rosehill R9 8,10Thanks.
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7 minutes ago, Palliser said:
What I'd like to know is where the title "Opies Brain Fade" came from ?? I don't recall using that
I'm guessing a mod changed it since the topic of the discussion changed. I thought it was a new post about his ride on Lanikai in the third at Tauranga.
I don't like that attributing a statement to someone who didn't say it is something which can be done by the powers that be of the forum. But I don't think it was with nefarious intent in this instance.
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1. Randwick R2 5, 10 BB
2. Randwick R3 9, 12
3. Randwick R4 4, 7 BB
4. Randwick R6 2, 4
5. Randwick R7 1, 4
6. Randwick R8 2, 14
7. Randwick R9 2, 4
8. Flemington R5 2, 7
9. Flemington R6 3, 13
10. Flemington R7 10, 16
11. Flemington R8 3, 6
12. Flemington R9 3, 4Thanks.
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44 minutes ago, Insider said:
Could be flattened though. I for one wont be backing her next time.
Savaglee was three wide with no cover and under riding at the 600m. So Naive led and was all out from the 400. Poetic Champion was outside the leader all the way and hit the front halfway down before fading to 4th. Captured By Love wasn't out of third gear until the 300.
Her Wakefield win had a touch of freak about it, and this run does too.
I may not be backing her next time either, but it'll be because this run is seared in everyone's memory and she goes around at $1.40 when she should be $1.70.
- Pak Star and Canterbury Man
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17 hours ago, Tauhei Notts said:
Actually I think Matamata is a better course to run a Group One 1600 than Hastings.
At Matamata the run to the first turn, over 1600 metres, is the longest straight run of any course in New Zealand.
Okay, the straight is not all that long, but it is not a Rotorua or Moonee Valley dash.
The 1600m start point at Hastings is terrible, even when the track surface isn't. If we need to close tracks then Hastings and New Plymouth are at the top of the list.
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24 minutes ago, chevy86 said:
And I will say it again--the grass is TOO BLOODY LONG and the retained moisture in said grass is the problem. JMO
I was surprised to hear Wilcox at Ellerslie say they were cutting their track to raceday length of 120mm. The old rule I heard was "no longer than a cigarette".
2 minutes ago, nomates said:The main races xfered to Matamata next week , like 2 years ago .
There's already a meeting at Woodville tomorrow. Squeeze them in there.
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1 hour ago, stodge said:
It's a lovely trophy with a fantastic story behind it.
I wish for "New Zealand's Richest Race" they'd gone for something which would be more open to international or even global competition.
The race is run late in your 3-y-o campaign but very early in the Northern Hemisphere - it's before the start of the flat season on grass in Europe - it would be very early for northern hemisphere 3-y-os to compete - would they open the race to NH 4-y-o? Seems unlikely. That said, you could get an American challenger from the west coast or perhps a Japanese runner or one of Aidan's?
It would be nice if it were a "win and you're in" race for something at Ascot or one of the other European Group 1 races - has anyone from NZTR thought about that?
It's restricted to horses bred or conceived in NZ, or sold at an NZB sale. It's an insular race to prop up the top end of the local industry, not an attempt at a legitimate globally-relevant race.
The Australian slot race The Everest can be open to allcomers because Aussie turf sprinters are the best in the world. The old US slot race The Pegasus could be open to all comers because US dirt horses are the best in the world. The NZ slot race The Kiwi can't be open to allcomers because Aus-breds (nevermind NH 4yos) would be a clear danger to the locals.
It's also being run on Derby day, so either we have a race worth roughly 3x the nearest competitor on the entire calendar but which isn't the main event on its day/the anchor of a brand new feature carnival, or we have a 3yo race on the same day as the Derby which is more important than the Derby (which SHOULD be the most important race there is).
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1 hour ago, scooby3051 said:Seems strange to me Tuesday moisture content was 23.1% and it was a soft 5, but now its got more moisture 24.8% and it is a Good 4????
Sand at the beach gets firmer as it gets wetter. Is a sand-based track the same?
(I'm talking out my arse here and giving as much benefit of the doubt as I possibly can.)
- Pete Lane and scooby3051
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3 hours ago, scooby3051 said:
It seems based on their moisture content they put up it may actually be a Good 3 not a soft 5...a track with that level of moisture is NOT a soft 5...or am I missing something???
The Strathayr is designed to not hold water and at the same time to not be as firm as traditional tracks with low moisture content. So it's feasible for the track to have a soft 5 level of give in it with a lower-than-expected moisture content. Though it makes sense to take anything ATR/NZTR say on the topic with a whole block of salt given their form.
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3 hours ago, scooby3051 said:
Now at the risk of upsetting Miss J... Aiden Ridley
Well, you're practically begging for it there.
- scooby3051 and MissJools
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Maybe moving all their good races to Ellerslie isn't such a bad idea after all.
(The correct answer is to ditch the buggered, rented track with the landlords that don't want racing there and base Taranaki racing at one of the tracks to the southeast (Waverley, Hawera, Stratford). Bonus points for moving closer to the rest of the CD horse population rather than being an outlier that's as close to Awapuni as it is to Te Rapa.)
Riccarton Track Rating
in Thoroughbred Cafe
Posted
Race 1: the winner was on the fence all the way and the 3rd horse was rails in running before coming down the outside.
Race 2: 1st and 2nd both on the fence in running before coming home wider, 5th (two noses off 3rd) was on the fence all the way.
The leader wins the first, the horse that missed the start and got back to last wins the second.
I haven't accounted for the impact of the wind which is apparently pretty strong, but the track looks fair to me.