RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.

chiknsmack

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Posts posted by chiknsmack

  1. 39 minutes ago, Ponderosa8 said:

    When looking at all the horses that he rode that were disqualified, the finishing position shows it as (for eg)

    21 days 3rd up NaNth of 7

    Any idea what the "NaNth" is abbreviated from?

    NaN stands for "Not a Number". When a computer expects something to be in number form but it isn't, it returns NaN. The "th" is what it would expect to put after the number (if it sees a 4 it returns "4th", a 5 "5th", and so on).

  2. On 7/8/2023 at 12:12 PM, Leggy said:

    But isn't that Australian market fair game for Entain here?

    Why would it be? Currently, if you're in Oz you can't bet with the NZTAB. Are the new owners going to convince Australia to allow Aussies to bet with the NZTAB while at the same time preventing NZ punters from betting with Australian companies? If either part of that were simple, surely NZRB would've already done it (unless they're completely incompetent, which is possible).

  3. 6 hours ago, Blueanytime said:

    Taking toot after suffering a severe brain injury is just plain dumb. Jamie Kah can ride, but she's an idiot.

    Frankie Dettori is an over rated, overpaid midget. 53 rides in Australia = 2 wins?

    Controversial, but not wrong. Kah was a bit dim even before she fell on her head, and doing what she's (allegedly) done is dumb. And if you think the best jockeys in the world are in Australia (which, given that Dettori wins at a 20% clip pretty much everywhere in the world bar Oz, would seem to be the case) then his two from 53 in Oz (0 from 25 in Gr. 1s) would mean he's wildly overated by anyone who thinks he's "one of the BEST jockeys in the world".

  4. 21 hours ago, Pakaraka Star said:

    Was certainly better than Justin Evans tip for the first at the greyhounds.  Talked it up all pre-race as one his bests while saying the fave didnt deserve its short price tag.  The favourite wins and his tip run last. 

    On a positive note he was at least willing to take on a fave. It didn't work in this case, but plenty of winners go around paying unders. And it was a 12-start maiden; in a vacuum taking on 12-start maidens isn't a bad idea. The winner also ran its slowest time from 7 lifetime starts c&d yesterday, while a couple of the others (including his tip) had run faster in the past, so it was certainly a beatable odds-on fave.

  5. https://nztr.co.nz/staff-contacts

    Timaru run a winter meeting with ten full fields (and enough noms to have run more races) on a G4.

    Oamaru run a winter meeting with full fields (~110 noms) on a S7.

    Wingatui run a winter meeting for some unknown reason. They get 54 noms, enough for six fields, then can't get through the meeting.

    It's all well and good kvetching amongst ourselves, but it might be worth taking a couple of minutes to let the top two or three people on the left of that page know that running meetings south of Oamaru between Easter and spring is a dumb idea, just in case they're unable to figure it out themselves.

     

  6. My first thought is that I wouldn't breed from her. She's has a decent pedigree, but she's had a number of chances with high-class stallions (Savabeel, Pins, Ocean Park twice) and not thrown much (one of the Ocean Parks was good). Her Tivaci 2yo is untrialled and already in the South Island. From a commercial point of view she also doesn't have a yearling coming through who could improve her record.

    Pedigree-wise, it's wide open without much inbreeding or linebreeding up close, so you could go anywhere. Nothing jumps out at me at all. Her dam's best one is by Pins, but there isn't a lot of Pins blood around at stud. Ocean Emperor has Pins, but would double up on O'Reilly and is by Zabeel (while Heartfelt has thrown a poor one by Savabeel). Keano is by Pins from a full sister to O'Reilly, and isn't very good. Dial a Prayer is worse.

    In two years' time her Super Seth weanling may have done something as a 2yo which would make breeding from her more obvious. But for now I'd say she's had her chances.

     

    Gun to my head, Sweynesse and Vanbrugh are great value just in general at $10,000. Contributer and Turn Me Loose are also general great value even up to $18,000 this year, but I'd be looking for something a bit speedier (and cheaper, though there isn't a stallion worth using that she deserves to go to IMO) for this mare. The Ardrossan she's carrying isn't bad. Santos could be worth a throw at the stumps.

  7. They weren't getting off the fence at all. Either the track was uniformly chopped up after the meeting the week before, or it wasn't that heavy.

    I was surprised it stayed a H8 all week since, admittedly on the other side of town, it had been sunny all week. Then when it rained here on Friday night it apparently didn't at Awapuni. They reported "heavy dew" and no irrigation last week at the track, so that dew must've been keeping the track heavy.

    Keep in mind that Awapuni can be a bit leaderish at times, which can mean more competition for the lead and a faster pace than at other tracks.

    And, the difference between a H8 and a S7 is bugger all.

  8. Would you get a materially weaker or smaller field if the "1-win" race was run for $150k? What about if you ran three of them as a "Progressive Stayers Triple Crown" for $100k each with a $100k bonus if one horse wins them all?

    Also, isn't the Dunstan Stayers final for a similar grade (~R75) in January? Why another one-off stayers race in the same month?

    Yes Scooby, something IS better than nothing. But just like when old Winnie gave the industry a few million a year but dictated it had to fund feature Group 1s (and NZTR were so grateful that they didn't push back), we're getting a windfall and spunking it up against the wall. I understand not letting perfect be the enemy of good, but we also shouldn't let our gratitude stop us from saying "Hey, maybe there's a better use for this money".

  9. 2 hours ago, Hi Ho Silver said:

    I hope they don't do something stupid like sand slitting Awapuni with the proceeds.

    "The programme of works at Awapuni will ensure the venue perform to its status as a Group One metropolitan track, with tenders to undertake the work closing next week. Construction is scheduled to commence on Monday 2 October. Synthetic racing and the training of horses will continue at Awapuni during the closure, with keys racedays transferred to Trentham over summer. In brief, the reconstruction will include:- earthworks to reshape the track by removing rises and hollows; widening the outside bend to a consistent 25 metres; turning the surface from a silt-based profile into a sand-based profile; replacing the existing ring main with high volume pipe; installing 100mm drain coil primary drains at 5m centres; installing slit drains in concentric circles around the track at 1m centres; installing a 10mm sand surface; installing new irrigation; sowing the track, and growing in the turf."

  10. 3 hours ago, Hi Ho Silver said:

    So who are we talking here?  McCullum, Cullen, Kemp ... 

    Think about it.  Would they influence you?

    McCullum's already busy trying to "influence" us to use 22bet instead of the TAB.

    It's good to see $1m is going towards a race the Aussies might be interested in. They might send a few over for the $350k MAAT and NW2L too. And technically the Maher/Eustace team would be outside the top 10 NZ prizemoney earners, so could have a go at that too. (NZTR have reserved the right to declare any horse ineligible for any reason, except for the $1m race. And that will be early enough in the year that the Aussie topliners aiming at the autumn carnival won't be ready to go. So the locals might be alright.)

  11. My first involvement in thoroughbred ownership was a share in a filly who was owned by a stud who wanted to retain her for breeding but didn't want to pay the costs to race her. She was a free lease to a trainer who then put together a syndicate of racing owners for her. It worked out great for everyone; the syndicate got to race a horse without the upfront cost of having to buy one, and the stud got her back a few years later as a 5-win mare they could breed on from after the syndicate bore the costs of campaigning her.

    Stable of Stars is a great idea. I've bought a share in a filly with Fortuna this year, with 1% being roughly a grand up front and $10/week. I'm not particularly fussed about owning a piece of her (for residual value after racing or for breeding on from if the syndicate decided to keep her for breeding), so I'd be much more keen on just paying the $10/week (or more, for a bigger share) to race her and then give her back to the owners in a few years' time.

    Aiming high like these guys and looking for stakes-quality horses the big studs don't want to sell (like the three fillies from Cambridge Stud who the stud thinks are stakes class and so want to race in Oz rather than NZ) and having minimal upfront costs makes it a really attractive proposition for small wannabe-owners. Sending the horses to top trainers and managing their racing careers in a professional manner is an attractive proposition to the studs (obviously, given the number and quality of horses that have been offered to Stable of Stars). Having the "Racing Royalty" membership group ($1 a day for the ownership experience - behind-the-scenes info on what the horses are doing, and racing-related benefits and perks -  without owning anything) is great for people who can't afford to join a syndicate and also acts as a pipeline of possible owners for the Private Partnership Parcels (ie. actual syndicate shares) later on down the line.

    I'm kinda bummed I didn't think of it myself, to be honest.

  12. 7 hours ago, Hi Ho Silver said:

    Oh cool.  I knew the Duke of Edinburgh gifted the silver collar but I didn't know about the name of the dog.  It's a pricey piece of jewellery too I believe.

    You might be able to help me with the Waterloo Cup too because I think from stories of old told to me a long time ago it has links to the road of the same name in Sockburn.

    The Waterloo Cup, in NZ and in Oz, are named after the English version which was the basically the equivalent of the Derby for hare coursing. The English version started in the early 1800s but hasn't been run since 2005 when hare coursing and fox hunting were stamped out. The Aussie version dates back to the 1800s and is still run as a coursing event in Victoria, though of course nowadays they chase a lure rather than a hare. But they keep the coursing setup of dogs running multiple two-dog knockout heats across two or three days. The Kiwi version, also going back to the 1800s, started as a coursing event but nowadays is a Group 1 which brings together qualifiers from heats run all over the country, rather than one track.

    I think I have more links to Sockburn than the race does (I went to Sockburn School back when Wigram Air Base was still open). Though there is also the Sockburn Cup, which is a reasonably prestigious staying race at Addington.

  13. 2 hours ago, scooby3051 said:

    Which tracks should close

    New Plymouth. The club don't own it, the locals want the racing gone, the surface is shit.

    Awapuni and Trentham would be quite valuable to developers, so selling them and building a track with a massive training centre somewhere in between would work.

    There's no reason that Ellerslie couldn't hold 40 meetings a year, with three or four months off over winter when the racing moves to Ruakaka or the Cambridge synthetic. Do the same at a CD greenfields site and you basically have a Sha Tin/Happy Valley setup with consistent horse populations running on the same tracks which would be very appealing to offshore punters.

    Simulcast the racing to Japan/HK/France and have tote-only betting and you'd have giant pools like they do in those countries. Entain wouldn't need to hire any racing bookies for NZ (you're welcome, Dean).

    Given what we've seen over the past couple of years with major CD races being postponed and moved to the North (the outsized influence of Northerners), what's more likely to happen is that Ellerslie and the new Waikato conglomerate will become Sha Tin and Happy Valley, with the CD becoming the relative backwater that the South currently is. All the big jockeys/trainers/horses/races/prizemoney will end up north of Taupo. Which is a shame, especially since the CD already has their established multi-club conglomerate which has had plenty of time to move boldly and establish themselves as indispensible and on a par with (or at least a close second to) "HQ".

  14. 13 hours ago, Mattski said:

    Headline $900m deal turns into $11.5m for thoroughbred racing in year 1   less in year 2    Take out the lost pokie income and cashflow wise we are no better off in Year 1  onwards

    Is that basically correct??    :(

    No. Entain paid $150m up front, from which the $11.5m in Year 1 (and so on) comes. They've also guaranteed they'll distribute $180m (without geoblocking legislation) or $200m (with geoblocking) to the codes in each of the next five years. This is where the "$1B deal" headlines come from. Gallops will get between 50 & 60% of that.

    Last year the distribution to the codes was $140m. If Entain don't improve the profitability of the TAB at all (meaning they'd have the money from profits to pay out $140m again each year for the next five years), they'll be digging into their own pockets for another $40-60m per year for the next five years.

    The real concern is what happens after that. There's no guaranteed minimum distribution, just "Entain gets 50% of TAB profits, the other 50% gets paid out to sport and racing". If in five or six years time the TAB is no more profitable than it is today, we'd be looking at Entain making ~$70m per year and the codes getting less than that ($70m, minus whatever sports governing bodies get from turnover on sport). That would give the codes less than half of the money they got last year, so stakes would have to drop to less than half of last years levels.

    For the distributions for the 2028-29 season to match 2022-23, TAB profits would have to double. If in 2022 the TAB made a profit of X and paid out $140m, in 2028 - when half the TAB's profit goes to Entain - TAB profit would have to be 2X (one X goes to Entain, the other X covers the $140m distribution to the codes). For the 2028-29 distributions to match the guaranteed $180m or $200m of 2027-28, TAB profit would have to triple.

    If the codes short-sightedly put all of the extra money from the guaranteed distributions for the next five years into stakes, gallops would be looking at a roughly 50% increase in stakes for the next five years (~$20k minimums on industry days, if the money is spread out across grades in the same proportions as it currently is), then a drop of 60% to 75% to ~$5k minimums on industry days from 2028-29 onwards.

    If an Entain-run TAB becomes more profitable, things won't be so bad. If you think current stakes are acceptable and that Entain can double TAB profits in five years, the deal is fine.

    The thing is though, Entain don't really need to increase TAB profitability. They'd like to for sure (more profit for the TAB means more money for them), but even if TAB profits just stay stagnant for the next 25 years they'll walk away at the end of the deal with ~$1B in profit ($150m paid up front, plus $200-300m to top up distributions in the first five years, then ~$70m profit per year for the 20 years after that).

  15. 10 hours ago, JJ Flash said:

    You would need corresponding grass track data to support any such deviation from the mean

    TJC-injury-database-surface-1200.jpg

    These stats are US-only, and fatal injuries (within 72 hours of the race) only. Keep in mind that there are MANY differences between NZ and US racing (the size/shape/action of the horses, the "all out from go to whoa" vs "sit and sprint" pace, the size of the tracks, and the fact that when a US turf track gets too wet they move the races to the dirt instead, among others).

    In the early days of the synthetic tracks in the US, the commentary was that forelimb injuries (usually fatal fractures) were down but hindquarter injuries (some broken hocks, but mostly non-fatal muscular/tendon injuries of the back and hindquarter) were up, relative to dirt racing.

    The US AW fatal injury rate for the five years 2014 to 2018 was 1.17 per 1000 starts, the UK AW rate for the same period was 1.15. The turf stats for the same period were 1.31 (US), 0.76 (UK), 1.12 (JPN) and ~0.6 (HK, who didn't break their stats down by surface).

    Sources:https://jockeyclub.com/pdfs/eid_13_year_tables.pdf , https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/237024/comparing-equine-injury-rates-suggests-u-s-can-improve

  16. The picks at the bottom are from MegaForm, and in this case none of them are in the top eight in the market. Two of them are emergencies. I'd be questioning the tips first, especially since in the next race they don't like any of the single-figure runners to run top 4 either.

    I don't know who writes the form comments for each horse (maybe an AI version of young Sayer?). It seems like they take a very simplistic look at the course/distance stats and last start of each runner, and even then the comments don't always make sense (Rothfire has apparently "performed well on this track"; his only run here he was unplaced). But it does make sense for them to not rate any of these roughies.

  17. 8 hours ago, elvis said:

    Why do some horses not handle the synthetic track?

    Since it doesn't have a root structure holding the surface together, their hooves dig deeper into it. So it suits horses with high actions who lift their hooves up before swinging them forward, rather than the "daisy-cutting" action of typical turf horses. Wet trackers generally handle it fine.

  18. 2 hours ago, Kuntgetabetton said:

    In fact more often the case that (Sportsbet) offer around 20% - 25% better fixed odds than here.

    Sportsbet have deductions for emergencies who are scratched. The other Oz bookies have no deductions for emergencies. NZ TAB have no deductions for any scratchings.

    Something to be aware of when you see Sportsbet are top odds before scratchings.

  19. It's illegal for offshore bookies to advertise in NZ, and these little Sportsbet updates are advertising.

    So it's Sky refusing to show the Sportsbet odds so they don't get in trouble with the Department of Internal Affairs.

    I remember one of the Australian basketball teams playing the Breakers over here and having to put athletic tape over the (betting) sponsor on their jerseys before the game could start. There was even some chat here on RaceCafe about us not being allowed to talk about offshore bookies a few years ago (it could possibly be counted as RaceCafe advertising offshore bookies and lead to the Racecafe owners getting in trouble).