RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.

We're Doomed

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Posts posted by We're Doomed

  1. 5 minutes ago, Insider said:

    Actually I agree with your summary.

    About 20+ years ago I had a good quality little mare who when carrying a low weights under the wide spread  range of the time, won a Great Easter Hcp, carrying 50kg, ran 2nd beaten a head in the Stewards Hcp carrying 51kg and 4th in the Railway Hcp carrying 51kg 

    I am certain that with today's compressed weights' she couldn't have done that..

    Used to be some Auck Cup winners who got in with no weight as well. That used to be the trainer's art, now with set weights and penalties most don't seem to bother too much about that art.

  2. 18 minutes ago, Leggy said:

    Please don't feel you have to reply, but FYI it was Brett Scelley a decade ago who told me that he needed at least an 8-9kg spread to effectively handicap within the rating bands. That was at a meeting in Petone because NZTR had asked me to analyse the impact of the handicapping changes that had occurred following the Mark Webbey review a couple of years earlier, which we did pro bono.

    What we found then pretty much concurred with his thinking. This from the summary of that report.

    "The analysis clearly shows both that higher weighted horses are significantly outperforming lower weighted ones, and that females are significantly out performing males."

    My current data says that the situation has worsened if anything. Not a great way to create competitive racing that will build wagering revenue.

    Only very tenuously related to the subject, but I have noticed that very few trainers seem to use the benchmark conditions of the current class system. If you put a 67 into a 65 benchmark race with a 4k claimer you can be incredibly well off at the weights, and gives a bit of scope to race over a preferred distance and in weaker company, yet seldom seems to be used.

  3. 14 hours ago, JJ Flash said:

    Your taking the whole complement given the multi name scenario that operates there😋

    Oh Flashy, that's a bit harsh. I have a very similar name in each place. My memory would never cope with remembering multiple different names.

    Most of the people on these sites do mean well. The industry would be in bigger trouble if no one was interested enough to comment. There are some quite intelligent people that comment on here.

  4. 14 hours ago, nomates said:

    Fair enough , but to not to take the jockey into consideration in NZ and especially the SI tells me you are a man with far too much money or not enough respect for the money you have .

    I refuse to bet in the SI the standard is that bad , there is simply no consistency to the way horses or races are run , not a lot better elsewhere in NZ but it's diabolical down south . 

    Interestingly enough, in the days when I used to follow racing much more closely than I do these days, some of the worst jockeys were in the NI, often in the CD. I never really used to have any Southern jockeys on my "wouldn't touch with a barge pole" list.

    And the problem in the SI is not the jockeys as much as the shocking programming. That is why form can be inconsistent. And form is equally inconsistent in the CD where a horse can fail in an $18,500 race at New Plymouth and then come out and win a $40,000 at Trentham. And vice versa. That would seldom happen in Australia.

    Half the horses in any given race in the South aren't racing over the distance they would prefer or in their preferred class or after an ideal gap, but they have to take any opportunities available to them. If they wait for the perfect race coming up next week they have every chance of being balloted out.

    I feel quite sad when I see a typical $18,500 low key race in the south with 12 starters and six of the jockeys are from the NI, often the very top jockeys like Kennedy and Doyle. How on earth are southern jockeys to gain experience and skills if they can't even get a ride at a low key meeting? Some of them have to drive 6 hours to get two rides. It must be a pretty dispiriting occupation. And when they ride at certain tracks with about six people in attendance and no atmosphere they must wonder why they bother.

  5. 33 minutes ago, nomates said:

    Mostly I agree , but he did say something many have been wanting for many years to help grow participation and introduce knew viewers , free to air racing , not sure he would have been told to say that .

    The biggest thing I took out of it was that Trentham is going to be closed for 3 years for it's rebuild ,going to place a lot of pressure on the CD tracks that are "available" for use . Maybe time to realize they need to bring some of the mothballed tracks back into use .

    The interesting thing about closing Trentham for 3 years is what happens if the other CD tracks cope quite well with the pressure and it becomes apparent that Trentham isn't really needed.

    What on earth are they going to be doing to Trentham for 3 years? Are they bulldozing the stands as well as redoing the track?

  6. 1 hour ago, Alf Riston said:

    Sadly, despite the presentation team throwing in all sorts of superlatives on how sensational the racing was, for mine it was not much more than 'another day at the races'. The crowd looked sparse against oversized, dated infrastructure (the temporary stand at the Parade ring did look bright and shiny but held no more than a handful of people in the shots I saw). 

    The prestige & charm of NZ's premier staying event and the Carnival itself have long since slipped away, contributable in my opinion to the shift from it's traditional Christmas timing and poor stakemoney on offer.

    Our premier staying events now resemble not much more than glorified highweights. Starters in the Cup yesterday had an average of 28 starts for $11,000 per trip to the races and I doubt we saw any future Melbourne Cup contestants in the mix.

    We now have Entain and a brand new 'state of the art' track, but it's clear that it's going to take time and a lot of extraordinary effort to make the Auckland Cup a great day out , instead of just another race viewed from the couch. 

     

     

     

    I largely agree, but merely increasing stakes money won't fix a race like the Cup. 

    The race that I thought was really poor was the Bonecrusher. Other than the hot fav it was a pretty ordinary field. I think Legarto got a $500,000 bonus for placing in a couple of designated races. I wasn't following it too much, but did that bonus get much of a mention on mainstream media and on trackside? Did it excite people and did it boost the quality and size of the field? I wonder if Entain would consider it $700,000 well spent?

    The size of some of the supporting races must have been disappointing considering the stakes on offer.

  7. 2 hours ago, nomates said:

    So I've just seen that they are doing the same at Tauranga , a ho hum meeting on the same day as Trenthams second day then a G2 run the following Saturday , WHY ? 

    It just seems inane , what is their rationale ? it's beyond me .

    They have no other tracks to hold those meetings on.

  8. Certainly a strange one. I have never seen anything quite like it before. The TAB really should explain what happened.

    Normally if a horse pays a freakish place price its because another horse, or horses, has had a massive place punt on it. For that horse to pay over $11 there should have been one or two horses paying about 50 cents a place. It might have been money laundering where someone put massive place punts on all but two of the horses. In which case it might have been expensive for them as they probably hoped all three of the punted horses would place.

    I seem to vaguely recall when Axeman won his maiden he was something like 1/8 in the betting. But that is a different scenario brought on by a massive win bet.

  9. 4 hours ago, chiknsmack said:

    Wasn't there talk of building a new track a wee way south-west of town? Rather than a full reno of the turf at the present site why not sell the current track for houses (it's already surrounded by them) and build new? Bonus points if you design a track with a decent start point for the 1600m.

    Perhaps build it somewhere near Waipukurau.