Jacinda Ardern

[Guest]

http://insights.nzherald.co.nz/article/2017-election-forecast/

Pretty thorough and extensive, but worth a look if you have the time or inclination.

Based on the medians, the Greens won't make the 5% threshold and the Maori party will lose all the Maori electorate seats to Labour.

Solves the concern of a Labour/Green/Maori coalition

[rdytdy 5,345]

Author unknown:

"One thing that the left wing academics enjoy is attempting to capture the language and then it repeating endlessly as a mantra till it becomes an accepted truism. The word ‘gay’ is a good example. ‘Dirty dairying’ is another. Try ‘neo-liberal economics’. They also cast possible scenarios and then carry on leveraging their postulations as though they are facts. The mindless chattering in social media picks up the conclusion and instantly you have a whole new positioning accepted by the vacuous and unthinking.

Need an illustration? Anne Salmond writes in a morning paper using such vague terms and pushing such nonsense. She suggests Ms Ardern and Labour are some fresh, wondrous, new age phenomena.


Examples? She makes an unsupportable claim – “change is in the air”. Within a sentence this is a “seismic shift in the national psyche”. A suggestion becomes a ‘fact’.

Then we get the extreme left’s “33 years of neoliberal doctrine”. If it has been so bad why has every western democracy adopted it in large measure? Why didn’t Labour abandon it when they had the reins for so long? Why have we had so much growth in GDP, wages and incomes if it’s so obnoxious?

Her next big assertion is that “these (Jacinda-like) millenials are astute and free thinking with refreshing optimism and generosity of spirit”. Get a life woman – I was part of such a group in the 60’s, my kids fitted that description aptly and so do my grandkids. We were all airy fairy, carefree ‘socialists’ until we started earning money and faced the reality of economics, business and making a living.

No such article would be complete without another old chestnut – “the politics of greed”. Pray tell me, Dame Anne, what is the difference between a university professor seeking a 3% rise in salary and Corporate New Zealand making a profit and increasing its executives pay? Or a dairy farmer putting on extra cows to offset lower export prices for milk products? Or a landlord putting up rent to cover the growing amount of repairs from careless tenants? Or nurses wanting a pay rise? Or the local nick-nack shop putting up prices to cover costs? It’s not “greed” – its self interest a totally different concept that makes every economy work.

I expected a shot to be fired at ‘globalisation’ as well but she skipped that.

But we got this line – “The mindless pursuit of short-term profit has not just poisoned waterways across New Zealand. It’s been toxic for communities as well”. Frankly, Dame Anne, that’s garbage. Our rivers are among the world’s cleanest. You should have seen the rivers of Eastern Europe under socialism – they were ‘poisoned’. Twenty years ago small communities like Culverdon in north Canterbury were struggling, shops closing, school cutting back, services curtailed. Today sharemilkers’ families have transformed these villages creating thriving happy communities. Maybe you should climb down from your ivory tower and do some rural towns. Take your togs too because the rivers are very swimmable.

Of course you had to do the “inequality” thing. Jacinda has no evidence to support her claim either – just a ‘feeling’. Don’t dare look at the actual figures that show the rich/poor gap hasn’t moved in 20 years of “neoliberal politics”.

And you had a swing at the “increasing numbers of people live in cars or on the streets”. Have you ever talked to one of these? How many have you taken into your home for a night? Have you helped one to get into a shelter for a night? Or is it easier to write from the warmth and comfort of ‘gated’ home and demand the rest of us do something? Here is something to consider. Many of these so-called homeless are suffering mental illness. It was a bunch of trendy leftie, liberal academics that demanded the closure of mental hospitals in the great ‘normalisation’ thrust that pushed many of these people onto the street.

Then the coup-de-grace – “Likewise, corporate, top-down modes of governance have bred a complacent arrogance among many New Zealand politicians, who forget that they are there to serve the people, not the other way around”. All I could see was M’s Ardern’s long, bony finger wagging at me, Kelvin Davis crude belittling takedown’s, Helen Clark’s uncompromising demands, angry Andy’s pug-faced union threats or Michael Cullen’s “rich prick” insults. Nah, Dame Anne, you can’t make out Ardern and company are some fresh, bottom up champions of a new democracy. They love power and position just as much as the other lot.

Oh, I nearly missed the last attempt at putting lipstick on porcine livestock……. “there is little of this kind of cynicism about Jacinda Ardern”. So how come you missed Ms Ardern pretending to be all rural and cosy with farmers because she lived in Morrinsville thirty years ago and then sticking it to farmers with unlimited taxes? Or Ms Ardern offering the kids of our wealthiest families a free ride through uni to get their vote? Or taxing water bottlers and handing it over to Iwi? Not cynical?? Spare me!!

Running our country is not a beauty contest or an exercise in finding new ways to wrap fish and chips. It takes more than empty rhetoric, visions and platitudes. Nor is it a contest to see how much tax you can raise and how much you can outbid the others. That is a road to unhappiness.

I will settle for “die-hards seem moribund, stuck in an ideological morass”, thank you. They are not great but it beats inexperienced newbies, floundering around in a make believe world."

 

[chevy86 2,717]

18 hours ago, hesi said:

 

, Clarke should shut up,

So should that other bloody Clark! Anything subliminal in Jacinda bunking down with a "Clarke"?

[chevy86 2,717]

7 hours ago, hesi said:

 

Any suggestions

 

Have you not been paying attention Hesi--party vote ACT.

[Guest]

11 minutes ago, chevy86 said:

Have you not been paying attention Hesi--party vote ACT.

Move Parliament from the Beehive to Sky City Casino while you're about it as well

[Ohokaman 5,882]

3 hours ago, rdytdy said:

Author unknown:

"One thing that the left wing academics enjoy is attempting to capture the language and then it repeating endlessly as a mantra till it becomes an accepted truism. The word ‘gay’ is a good example. ‘Dirty dairying’ is another. Try ‘neo-liberal economics’. They also cast possible scenarios and then carry on leveraging their postulations as though they are facts. The mindless chattering in social media picks up the conclusion and instantly you have a whole new positioning accepted by the vacuous and unthinking.

Need an illustration? Anne Salmond writes in a morning paper using such vague terms and pushing such nonsense. She suggests Ms Ardern and Labour are some fresh, wondrous, new age phenomena.


Examples? She makes an unsupportable claim – “change is in the air”. Within a sentence this is a “seismic shift in the national psyche”. A suggestion becomes a ‘fact’.

Then we get the extreme left’s “33 years of neoliberal doctrine”. If it has been so bad why has every western democracy adopted it in large measure? Why didn’t Labour abandon it when they had the reins for so long? Why have we had so much growth in GDP, wages and incomes if it’s so obnoxious?

Her next big assertion is that “these (Jacinda-like) millenials are astute and free thinking with refreshing optimism and generosity of spirit”. Get a life woman – I was part of such a group in the 60’s, my kids fitted that description aptly and so do my grandkids. We were all airy fairy, carefree ‘socialists’ until we started earning money and faced the reality of economics, business and making a living.

No such article would be complete without another old chestnut – “the politics of greed”. Pray tell me, Dame Anne, what is the difference between a university professor seeking a 3% rise in salary and Corporate New Zealand making a profit and increasing its executives pay? Or a dairy farmer putting on extra cows to offset lower export prices for milk products? Or a landlord putting up rent to cover the growing amount of repairs from careless tenants? Or nurses wanting a pay rise? Or the local nick-nack shop putting up prices to cover costs? It’s not “greed” – its self interest a totally different concept that makes every economy work.

I expected a shot to be fired at ‘globalisation’ as well but she skipped that.

But we got this line – “The mindless pursuit of short-term profit has not just poisoned waterways across New Zealand. It’s been toxic for communities as well”. Frankly, Dame Anne, that’s garbage. Our rivers are among the world’s cleanest. You should have seen the rivers of Eastern Europe under socialism – they were ‘poisoned’. Twenty years ago small communities like Culverdon in north Canterbury were struggling, shops closing, school cutting back, services curtailed. Today sharemilkers’ families have transformed these villages creating thriving happy communities. Maybe you should climb down from your ivory tower and do some rural towns. Take your togs too because the rivers are very swimmable.

Of course you had to do the “inequality” thing. Jacinda has no evidence to support her claim either – just a ‘feeling’. Don’t dare look at the actual figures that show the rich/poor gap hasn’t moved in 20 years of “neoliberal politics”.

And you had a swing at the “increasing numbers of people live in cars or on the streets”. Have you ever talked to one of these? How many have you taken into your home for a night? Have you helped one to get into a shelter for a night? Or is it easier to write from the warmth and comfort of ‘gated’ home and demand the rest of us do something? Here is something to consider. Many of these so-called homeless are suffering mental illness. It was a bunch of trendy leftie, liberal academics that demanded the closure of mental hospitals in the great ‘normalisation’ thrust that pushed many of these people onto the street.

Then the coup-de-grace – “Likewise, corporate, top-down modes of governance have bred a complacent arrogance among many New Zealand politicians, who forget that they are there to serve the people, not the other way around”. All I could see was M’s Ardern’s long, bony finger wagging at me, Kelvin Davis crude belittling takedown’s, Helen Clark’s uncompromising demands, angry Andy’s pug-faced union threats or Michael Cullen’s “rich prick” insults. Nah, Dame Anne, you can’t make out Ardern and company are some fresh, bottom up champions of a new democracy. They love power and position just as much as the other lot.

Oh, I nearly missed the last attempt at putting lipstick on porcine livestock……. “there is little of this kind of cynicism about Jacinda Ardern”. So how come you missed Ms Ardern pretending to be all rural and cosy with farmers because she lived in Morrinsville thirty years ago and then sticking it to farmers with unlimited taxes? Or Ms Ardern offering the kids of our wealthiest families a free ride through uni to get their vote? Or taxing water bottlers and handing it over to Iwi? Not cynical?? Spare me!!

Running our country is not a beauty contest or an exercise in finding new ways to wrap fish and chips. It takes more than empty rhetoric, visions and platitudes. Nor is it a contest to see how much tax you can raise and how much you can outbid the others. That is a road to unhappiness.

I will settle for “die-hards seem moribund, stuck in an ideological morass”, thank you. They are not great but it beats inexperienced newbies, floundering around in a make believe world."

 

Someone talking sense.......this concentrated "attack" by lefty reporters has generated much of the Ardern "effect"...vacuous and unthinking is a good description of many of these starry eyed sorts, who will no doubt vote for Labour based on the younger smily face that they prefer instead of the boring middle aged bloke.....without having a clue about their policies or their likely effects......

[Guest]

Once again Fran O'Sullivan is on the mark and writes with such objectivity

What's seriously stopping aspirant Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern from coming out and admitting straight-up that she will introduce capital gains taxes in her first term in Government?

If Ardern is promoting "generational change", let it be to a generation that has the courage of its own convictions.

It is unfathomable that she won't publicly back her own judgment and say that her predecessor Andrew Little was wrong to cancel Labour's previous plans for capital gains taxes.

Instead, in a "trust me" approach, she could say: "I am made of stronger stuff. It is important to introduce such taxes to rebalance the economy away from property speculation and here's why ... "

 

And given the strength of her current popularity and undoubted communication skills, this should not be a difficult task for her to finesse.

The answer, of course, is that Ardern - just like Little before her - believes Labour will be marked down if it puts a pledge to introduce capital gains tax before voters at this month's election.

So what else will be on a Labour Government's agenda?

Ardern could rule out land taxes. She could rule out wealth taxes - like estate taxes, death duties and gift duties. But it is notable that only the family home has so far been declared sacrosanct.

Then there are other options. What happens to company and personal income taxes when a Labour Government needs to raise more revenue?

Ardern has ruled personal income tax hikes off the table. But for how long?

Grilled by the Herald's political editor Audrey Young in what was billed as a "job interview" for the prime ministership, Ardern went on to say it was her "captain's call" to not rule out introducing a capital gains tax on rental properties or second homes in Labour's first term as a Government.

During the election campaign, Ardern has repeatedly stressed that Labour will wait on recommendations from a proposed tax working group before finalising its options. She told the Herald that waiting to act until after the 2020 election was too long - stressing that any capital gains tax would not apply to the family home.

"It is different leadership, different decisions," Ardern told the Herald interviewing panel.

"Andrew [Little] made a call that he would go back to the electorate.

"I made a call that if I was in Government and presented with a tax working group paper that suggested these are the things you need to do to be able to tackle the housing crisis and inequality in your tax system, to then sit on that for one, maybe two years without doing anything didn't feel right to me."

Ardern said she had talked to finance spokesman Grant Robertson, but it was her "captain's call".

In fact, it is risible that any potential Prime Minister would be calling the shots in this matter, reducing her putative Finance Minister to a political eunuch.

Anyone who believes that Robertson is not in on the political ploy does not know him well.

He has held the finance role since November 2014, when Little reshuffled Labour's shadow Cabinet. His signature focus has been Labour's "Future of Work Commission", which has examined policies to address the impact of technological change on work and jobs.

The term "captain's call" hit the Australasian lexicon during former Liberal leader Tony Abbott's brief term as Prime Minister.

The Urban Dictionary is brutal, defining a captain's call as "a decision made unilaterally by a team leader without consulting colleagues, often a massive clusterxxxx".

This is not where PM Ardern wants to end up. More clarity, please.

[jeepers 276]

On 9/7/2017 at 9:13 AM, Ohokaman said:

With no economic news due out in New Zealand on Thursday, traders may watch for July retail sales and trade in Australia.

The kiwi fell to A89.93c from A90.52c on Wednesday when figures showed the Australian economy grew 0.8 per cent in the second quarter.

I see it's A87.96c this morning. Good for farmers and milk prices but bad for importers and wage earners.Can only be because pundits think JA may be the new Govt.

[Guest]

Well, what's this, another business leader saying the sky won't fall in, quite the opposite, if Labour win

Fear of a Labour/Green Gov 'gone' says business leader 

 

By: Francis Cook

Business writer, NZ Herald

Fear of a Labour/Green Government in the business community is well gone, says SkyCity chairman-elect Rob Campbell.

Speaking to Fran O'Sullivan for the Herald's Mood of the Boardroom series, Campbell said the Jacinda effect of the new Labour leader had "changed the game significantly" and the business and wider community was relaxed about the prospect of a change in Government.

An economist by training, Campbell is also chairman of retirement village operator Summerset Group, and campervan rental company Tourism Holdings, and is a director of commercial property investor Precinct Properties New Zealand - all NZX-listed companies.

"The old election roulette wheel is well and truly running, and a lot of money is going on the red squares," Campbell said.

 

Campbell said the Greens had improved their standing in the business community, removing the concern about a Labour/Green coalition.

"The element of fear that was in the business community about a Labour/Green Government, I think, is well gone," he said.

"Businesses that are good businesses will still be able to do well under everything I've seen from the Labour party."

He said issues could arise with tax complexity under Labour, but the business community also faces problems under National led Governments.

"Business doesn't necessarily do better under National led Governments," he said.

Productivity was the biggest issue facing the business community in the country and growth was nominal without it, Campbell said.

Campbell said the current Government had provided economic stability but a lack of growth.

"There is an increasing recognition among the business community and the wider community that things have got a little stale," he said.

"If I can use a word from a previous National Prime Minister, maybe we need to be a bit more aspirational."

Campbell described Bill English as a very capable economic manager and one of New Zealand's best Finance Ministers, but said he had not had a chance to prove what kind of Prime Minister he would be.

"We haven't really seen enough yet to know if he would be a very good Prime Minister or not, and I guess in the end he may not get the opportunity to show that."

Inequality was another big issue for Campbell.

"The people who are at the wrong end of the inequality really have genuine social and financial needs that are not being met under the current system," he said.

Campbell said the Government needed to provide additional income support at the base.

Asked his opinion on the Finance Minister Steven Joyce and his Labour counterpart Grant Robertson, Campbell said Robertson might be less experienced but that was not necessarily a bad thing.

"[Robertson] is probably more inclined to think and research issues than Steven might be," he said.

"You might say you don't want people to learn on the job, but I always have. I don't see why Grant couldn't do that as well."

The Herald's Mood of the Boardroom Election Survey will be published tomorrow. In an event streamed on nzherald.co.nz, National's Steven Joyce and Labour's Grant Robertson will debate the survey results.

 

[final luca 189]

you can not TRUST  national   or   labour, they have destroyed  the NZ way of life to feather their own ideas and nests.       

I call it political corruption. 

politic's is a real dirty word.    but more so those that claim to be the best thing since sliced bread are the worst.

they promise everything they believe the general public want but they all really deliver NOTHING.   this  happens every  election 

and nz public get the same old,same old bullshit from them that, it wasn't feasible  or there wasn't the money or  other areas need the funding 

more urgently so we had to make cuts.. you all know how it works.. lies, lies and more lies .. BROKEN PROMISES. makes one not want to vote,

but I want a change, but don't trust any one but feel they need something or some one on their side to keep them honest even if  the rich, knowitall bastards don't like that idea.

power to the people.

 

[Ohokaman 5,882]

On 9/11/2017 at 8:24 AM, hesi said:

Well, what's this, another business leader saying the sky won't fall in, quite the opposite, if Labour win

Fear of a Labour/Green Gov 'gone' says business leader 

 

By: Francis Cook

Business writer, NZ Herald

Fear of a Labour/Green Government in the business community is well gone, says SkyCity chairman-elect Rob Campbell.

Speaking to Fran O'Sullivan for the Herald's Mood of the Boardroom series, Campbell said the Jacinda effect of the new Labour leader had "changed the game significantly" and the business and wider community was relaxed about the prospect of a change in Government.

An economist by training, Campbell is also chairman of retirement village operator Summerset Group, and campervan rental company Tourism Holdings, and is a director of commercial property investor Precinct Properties New Zealand - all NZX-listed companies.

"The old election roulette wheel is well and truly running, and a lot of money is going on the red squares," Campbell said.

 

Campbell said the Greens had improved their standing in the business community, removing the concern about a Labour/Green coalition.

"The element of fear that was in the business community about a Labour/Green Government, I think, is well gone," he said.

"Businesses that are good businesses will still be able to do well under everything I've seen from the Labour party."

He said issues could arise with tax complexity under Labour, but the business community also faces problems under National led Governments.

"Business doesn't necessarily do better under National led Governments," he said.

Productivity was the biggest issue facing the business community in the country and growth was nominal without it, Campbell said.

Campbell said the current Government had provided economic stability but a lack of growth.

"There is an increasing recognition among the business community and the wider community that things have got a little stale," he said.

"If I can use a word from a previous National Prime Minister, maybe we need to be a bit more aspirational."

Campbell described Bill English as a very capable economic manager and one of New Zealand's best Finance Ministers, but said he had not had a chance to prove what kind of Prime Minister he would be.

"We haven't really seen enough yet to know if he would be a very good Prime Minister or not, and I guess in the end he may not get the opportunity to show that."

Inequality was another big issue for Campbell.

"The people who are at the wrong end of the inequality really have genuine social and financial needs that are not being met under the current system," he said.

Campbell said the Government needed to provide additional income support at the base.

Asked his opinion on the Finance Minister Steven Joyce and his Labour counterpart Grant Robertson, Campbell said Robertson might be less experienced but that was not necessarily a bad thing.

"[Robertson] is probably more inclined to think and research issues than Steven might be," he said.

"You might say you don't want people to learn on the job, but I always have. I don't see why Grant couldn't do that as well."

The Herald's Mood of the Boardroom Election Survey will be published tomorrow. In an event streamed on nzherald.co.nz, National's Steven Joyce and Labour's Grant Robertson will debate the survey results.

 

Retirement Villages, Tourism and Property.....yes I'm sure they have done very badly under National....what bollocks....

[chevy86 2,717]

12 minutes ago, Ohokaman said:

Retirement Villages, Tourism and Property.....yes I'm sure they have done very badly under National....what bollocks....

Not to mention the pokies at Sky City embellishing his handsome salary--hypocrisy at it's finest

[Ohokaman 5,882]

Like this......

Dear Jacinda,

I’ve seen you on the telly, dear,
There’s quite a hullabaloo,
But taxing this and taxing that
Means my two ticks stay BLUE

You’ll tax us on our assets
There’s nothing you won’t snatch
You’ll tax us on our holidays 
You’ll tax the boat or bach

You’ve said you’ll slap a tax on fuel
So when I need the car
I can’t afford to fill it up 
I won’t get very far!

You’ll tax water by the litre
And our farms will hit the wall
Have you forgotten it’s the farmers 
Who grow food to feed us all?

You’ve said you’ll tax emissions, 
Does that mean mine as well?
If I can’t afford to fart, my dear,
Your tax can go to hell!

You’ll tax us on the things we own
Is nothing off the table?
I dread to think what else you’ll tax
As soon as you are able

I’m told you want a ‘gift’ tax
So the bit I’ve got put by
I can’t give to my grand-kids?
They can kiss my gift good-bye?

You’ll take the joy from giving
And even when I’m dead
You’ll slap me with Inheritance tax
Or take my house instead

Taxing the shit out of all of us
Is just not very nice
And I’m hoping at the polls, my dear, 
The Left will pay the price

Truth to tell, Taxinda,
I think you’ve lost the plot
You’ll not get my vote, sweetheart,
My ‘comrade’ you are not!

So thank you for reading my letter,
I’ve got things off my chest
Just leave it up to National, dear…
They really do know best.

So I’ll vote for Mr English
And his team - they’ll get it right!
A pretty smile is not enough
Goodnight, Ms Ardern…….Goodnight

 

[Patiti 274]

They might actually simplify things for small business folk.

Many have tried in the past but it is still pretty daunting.

[rdytdy 5,345]

18 minutes ago, Patiti said:

They might actually simplify things for small business folk.

Many have tried in the past but it is still pretty daunting.

Taxcinda's working group. ."What was your profit this week?"  "Thank's we will take it."    

[barryb 2,067]

Latest poll makes for very interesting reading.

Labour have hit a wall.

[Guest]

Yep, I think it is going to be a close contest on election day, plus remember there is still the horse trading to go on with NZ First, as either National or Labour will need him to govern

[crustyngrizzly 1,705]

On ‎4‎/‎08‎/‎2017 at 6:27 PM, rdytdy said:

And direct quote from The Chase's Sean Wallace's favourite saying "let's do this."   

Another quote from Sean(the dark destroyer)Wallace is

'''it's the one question shoot out""' which is something Labour cannot or refuse to answer.

[chevy86 2,717]

As much as I despise Nick Smith I might have to do the sensible thing and swing back to National after watching the "Comrade" Jacinda you-tube.

[what a post 811]

Currently watching the tv3 programme "who owns nz now".   Put quite simply it clearly illustrates the current government has no social conscience. A rather sad portrayal on where nz has ended up.

[barryb 2,067]

That guy has always been a socialist, don't trust too much of what he produces.

Hes been left leaning in his articles for donkeys years.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, what a post said:

Currently watching the tv3 programme "who owns nz now".   Put quite simply it clearly illustrates the current government has no social conscience. A rather sad portrayal on where nz has ended up.

Couldn't agree more

Us baby boomers took home ownership for granted because it was relatively easily achievable

Some eye opening stuff highlighted in the programme, such as the fudged overseas ownership data

As they said, the sign of a healthy society, being the ability of its members to own their own home.

That makes us a very sick society

 

 

[chevy86 2,717]

Hesi, you obviously missed my Sept 3rd post on this topic--NOTHING has changed except we now have historically low interest rates, cash grants for first home buyers and "I want a $1mil first home". Plus of course increased housing demand, in large part caused by dysfunctional families with missing fathers--the examples of distress are usually solo women with too many kids.

[barryb 2,067]

Bryan actually hit the nail on the head when he stated that like almost everything we want to buy low and sell high, the climate is perfect for that scenario in housing right now with a few of the conditions prevailing as Chevy states.

Housing also suffers from nimby terribly, ie: We are all ok with however govts want to deal with possible solutions as long as it's not in my backyard.

 

[Guest]

 

They update this every couple of days, makes interesting reading, includes forecasts for all the electorates party and electoral

http://insights.nzherald.co.nz/article/2017-election-forecast/

, part

This is the New Zealand Herald election forecast model, built using data from all major polls released over the previous 12 months and election results since 1999.

Below, you will find forecasts for projected seats by party, party vote at national level and party vote by electorate. Once the candidate lists are finalised, we’ll be adding forecasts for the electorate seats.

The model provides a better measure of uncertainty than individual polls. Read more here about how the model was built.

Projected seats

Labour is projected to gain 21 seats to end up with 53(±3) seats, 
with National, projected to be at 54 (±2) seats.

To form a government, a party or coalition needs at least 61 out of 120 seats, or to reach a confidence-and-supply agreement. At this stage neither National or Labour have a clear path to 61 without New Zealand First support or a comeback from the Greens. The total number of seats could increase if there is an overhang from a minor party winning an electorate seat.

New Zealand First, projected to win 11 (±3) seats.

The Greens are projected to be at 0 (upper estimate of 6) seats.

Maori Party and ACT are projected to get one each.

The model is not currently able to predict for The Opportunities Party, polling at 1.6 percent in the latest poll.

*Figures in brackets indicate margin of error