Berri

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Berri last won the day on March 23

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  1. Berri

    THIS IS SERIOUS PEOPLE MAKE NO MISTAKE

    So Peter RS, how long do you think this is going to take, where the borders are closed so that no-one pollutes NZ with the virus again? I was an advocate some weeks ago that any person wanting to come in NZ needed to enter quarantine off shore (like our horses) before getting to NZ. Then we have less chance of it getting onshore. The problem is that a surface is enough to infect. What about imported goods? Do they have to go into quarantine? What say this morphs and comes bad a a yearly flu like the Spanish Flu? Do we keep everything closed? It's all about the hospital beds.
  2. Berri

    THIS IS SERIOUS PEOPLE MAKE NO MISTAKE

    The number of people who die will depend on the care they get (if they need it) post catching it. Statistically 4.5m people, 80% getting it, with a 4.0% death rate =144,000. So to get 80,000 he must think that 1.78% of those who catch it die. A little low based on the statistics. Currently there are 660,150 reported cases with 30,642 deaths (4.64%). You'd have to say that a lot of those are due to the lack of medical assistance and equipment, hence the political solution of shutting down to keep up with the hospital beds
  3. Berri

    THIS IS SERIOUS PEOPLE MAKE NO MISTAKE

    I left out one part of that table. The period is from 1-1-2010 to now
  4. Berri

    THIS IS SERIOUS PEOPLE MAKE NO MISTAKE

    Totally agree. I have no doubt this hasn't been thought through enough. Herd immunity is the only long term course (apart from vaccination) to get back to normal. All of this lock down is a political solution to attempt to restrict visual social media from displaying the short comings of a health system in disarray and the inability for governments to efficiently manage health outbreaks such as pandemics. We should have been prepared but we weren't. We had plenty of notice (SARS, MERS, Ebola etc) but no notice was taken. Even when the reports of a potential pandemic in China was in play, our health officials ignored it. The government ignored it. So this lock down is all about mitigating the risk of social discord and buying time because we weren't prepared. Hollywood even beat governments to it. Now to the facts: Health Condition Period * Registered Infections Deaths % Deaths to Registered Infections 01-01-2020 Tuberculosis 2,490,000 475,000 15% Malaria 17,100,000 101,000 0.50% Aids 37,900,000** 192,500 0.50% Influenza 19,000,000** * 38,333 0.20% C-19 622,395 28,804 4.60% Measles 650,000 35,000 5.30% * From 2018 figures ** have the disease *** Estimated as a percentage So that tells us where we are in terms of other conditions that have been plaguing us over the years. The three that really interest me are TB, Influenza (Flu) and measles as these are viral and have vaccines for them. The Flu interests me because the reason for annual flu jabs is that the flu strain seams to be a 2 yearly mutation. That is why every year they go hard at getting this winter's flu jabs. As we already know that C-19 has had one mutation cycle. " As the new coronavirus continues to spread around the globe, researchers say the virus is changing its genetic makeup slightly. "Viruses mutate naturally as part of their life cycle," says Ewan Harrison, scientific project manager for the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium, a new project that tracks the virus in the United Kingdom." So here we are, politically smashing the entire financial environment, which theoretically will cause more deaths than the virus itself. There is a direct correlation between the financial stability of human beings and ill health and death. So let's keep to the facts. If we have 800 ICU beds available that have respirators, and we have a population of 4.5m and we know that statistically 80% of the population will get this, and we know that 6% will require hospitalisation, then we need 216,000 beds. If the virus cycles every 7 days (mean is 6.8 but there has been one outlier of 27 days - that complicates things somewhat), then to avoid a political and social meltdown of people being cared for in the corridors and lots of dead bodies shown on film, we need 25,000 beds to smash this over 10 weeks. This presumes that we can control the contagion to space the infection exposure to approx 450,000 people per week. Each ICU bed is approx $3500 each so therefore we need approx $87m for equipment. Say we need places where 200 beds can be put under roof. These places must be able to cater for 200 people for food and ablutions. That means we need 150 facilities that can be converted quickly. We also need say 1 educated helper per 5 beds. That means we need to quickly train 5000 people to work a ICU bed. We also need overseeing doctors and emergency stuff and personnel for when the shit hits the fan with those that should die but can be saved. This equipment and this group of people will be the tricky thing to source. This is where the army comes in. They have a lot of kit that can help but probably not enough. But they do have people with mobilisation knowledge and skills. The rest, we buy. We offer offshore people a fortune to help us for 6 months and we go hard. You do realise that our race tracks may have facilities that when converted can help? They have space, kitchens and location. They are invariably attached to a town. Those towns have doctors and I''ll bet you there are volunteers everywhere to be educated, or wish to help. So to the cost?......less than $500m with a bump of three months and it's all over. Weigh that against 800 beds available during isolation where "hopefully" we'll stamp it out but like measles and TB we won't because we can't have all the borders closed for ever and this virus is seriously contagious. What are we to do in the future? A new virus has come to town. You really think it can be eliminated when measles and TB can't? And what of the Spanish Flu that allegedly killed 50m World wide. Have a read https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-i/1918-flu-pandemic This C-19 flu is a different version of it and somehow we have to get resistance to it or subscribe to waiting for a vaccine that may affect us for many years to come. Read about it Hopkins Research Centre attachment... I listened to a Zoom cast put on by the Weizmann Institute in Israel. They're probably known around the World as one of the most progressive research centers on the planet. Gates gives them $250m a year. The Zoom Cast had sqillions of viewers. Through Following At Home, they've allegedly linked together 2.1m computers to make the World's largest super computer. They are now open sourcing a collaborative initiative between 2000 scientists and laboratories. Included in the initiative are four of the largest AI and machine learning centers to analysis and process the data being created. There allegedly are over 150 lab simultaneously conducting tests on humanoids to establish what works and what doesn't. There is another set of labs inventing shit that can only be described as a World collaboration. The vaccine that they are attempting to make will be open sourced. No one will own it. On record is the head of that facility saying that normal vaccines take 8-10 years to develop and cost $1-1.5b to make. They think they can do it in 4-4 months. The real issue is manufacturing, where he said sourcing the components (set aside the manufacturing) could take a further 4 months. So we at best are in a 8 month hold pattern for a vaccine that has never been delivered in a time from of less than 8 months, but is probably longer. So for us, we will be locked up, closed down, locked up, and closed down as outbreaks occur. We will not have freedom as we know it until we are all infected or the vaccine arrives in no earlier than 8 months. In the meantime, Rome burns....how do we fund the cost of all of this without ripping everything apart for many years to come? Racing could play a big part in all of this. I'm currently exploring the ability to link all of us together for a Zoom cast so that we can all get the juices flowing. We have an opportunity here. We just need the right people, the right mandate and the right direction to get things going. I'm not impressed with the level of info and thought by our leaders to this point so we have to take the matter into our own hands. Sorry for all the spelling mistakes or lack of some grammer but it's Sunday and I feel lazy Hopkins Research Centre.docx
  5. Berri

    dean mckenzie

    That's not correct. The racing clubs were the underwriters to the loan, not the racing conference or the TAB itself. Therefore ownership vests with the racing clubs.
  6. Berri

    dean mckenzie

    It wasn't a hospital pass...it was step towards self glorification but unfortunately that team (RITA) fell well short of the mark. They had a blue print in the form of the Messara report, who it must be said has already demonstrated that he has some skills and the courage required, to create positive change for the racing industry. You don't need to agree with everything in the report, but there is enough meat on the bone to have direction. The unfortunate result from RITA's efforts is such that there is very little in the proposed Bill that can be recognised as being the advice given by Messara. I for one, don't agree with the appointment of a single entity to create, market and distribute the content of NZ racing. I am a supporter of affiliate models where multiple affiliates can distribute the content. This is an open source solution, which is where commerce is moving, as the on-line and virtual tools become developed. If, for example, we gave the rights to a very big conglomerate that had processes and governance that its directors considered risky, or in conflict with its current activities, then we may not see the development of betting assets that are relevant in the future. So by having the flexibility to embrace these modern technologies, which though risky, eventually provide favourable results, then we must have the opportunity to have a go. I had a proper crack at setting up a lottery based on horse racing. Did it properly, paid out the largest ever dividend in UK betting history. Got closed down by UK government because they wanted Betfred to have the tote monopoly. In NZ they didn't do it because the Lotteries Commission complained that it would compete with the lotteries. Who suffered and continues to suffer? Racing. In 1996 I sat next to Bert Black over dinner. He was creating Betfair. The result was Betfair became a shareholder in us and we in Betfair. But prior to doing that I saw George Hickton (CEO of RIB) to try and get him to develop an exchange. . He wrote to me stating that the TAB didn't experiment with new technologies....and the rest is history. This sort of thing has been happening for years. But back to RITA. That effort was an abomination. I was asked to post the four submissions that I prepared and submitted. They were simply commonsense. No rocket fuel there so how was it that I could pick such gaping holes into the proposed legislation.....if you were promoting racing? And that's where I think the water became murky. This proposed Bill wasn't about promoting racing. It was about settling the account on behalf of sport. So what did Dean qualify for at the American Uni?....sport. I really like Dean but I struggled to understand how racing was left behind as much as it was in the proposed Bill.
  7. Berri

    THIS IS SERIOUS PEOPLE MAKE NO MISTAKE

    There are few people who are as qualified to give us an experienced opinion on what should be done about C-19. Bill Gates is one of them. The first link is a speech that he gave 5 years go. The second is an interview he did last night. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wyiwI&t=60s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe8fIjxicoo
  8. Yes I'm a fan of jumping for betting and the reason why it doesn't exist properly anywhere else around the World other than the UK, France and Japan (yes Japan!!!) is that the pattern isn't there. So if i were to instigate a flat racing program culminating with a series of 5000m championship races, and simultaneously a novice hurdle and steeplechase program, I could start the process. You may not be aware but France and Japan have a series of jump races for 3 and 4 year olds. Does them no harm at all, and in fact is unbelievably popular. and betting is huge. We've lost contact with the community. So if I was to develop a real stayers program, with a series of staying races (3200-4800m races) for 3 and 4 year olds only and they were worth $100,000 each, would you race in them? Four of them a month for 6 months equates to $4.8m. That is 3.2% of the current Petone spend. All we've got to do is take a brave step and restructure Petone. And then towards the end of the 6th month, we create a championship series of 8 races for specialist staying races over slightly different distances and a couple of female races. Those races should be worth $250,000 each. That is equivalent to 1.33% of Petone. Then half way through the end of the flat stayers championships we incorporate a series of novice novice hurdle and steeplechase races for those that want to play that game (3 months with 6 races per weekend worth $100,000) being 4.8% of Petone with a championship of 12 races over 2 days where each race is worth $250,000, being 2% Petone. All of this will cost 11.33% of Petone. Look we're in the shitter for the next 4-5 months anyway. It's winter anyway. We chop Petone down to 75% of what it currently is and we save $35m pa. I would like less than half of that to save an industry during a major downhill ride, which by the way wasn't travelling too flash anyway. Why can we do this? Because we're under duress and in lockdown and are probably technically insolvent under the current stakes structure. That means we can get rid of the dead wood and chop the ridiculous under performing leaches' pay packets right now and renegotiate a bullshit agreement for an under performing FOB platform. By October we can be something that we are not currently.
  9. That may be so but if we were going to look after racing, then we have to start somewhere....or sink....although help may be on its way. Still doesn't change a plan that could be interesting...
  10. Berri

    Help is on its way

    Page 21 says it all https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Hydroxychloroquine_final_DOI_IJAA.pdf
  11. If we're one of the only nations racing, then we're one of a few with betting content. So how do we keep racing going? Let's isolate every racing establishment with no exceptions for 14 days and have testing kits available for all participants. The day the entity goes into self installed hibernation they get tested. They then get tested at day 7 and then day 14. A test is not only to see if they have the virus but also if they have had it. Anyone who has had it is immune. Let's install infra red sensors, or have tested people with mobile infra red sensors at all entrances to race/ training tracks. No person goes to the track without either having three negative tests and the regular infra red screen. Social distancing needs to still occur while on the track. Jockeys and track work riders are tested daily as they go from horse to horse. And when I mean each racing establishment, I would also include any person required to be part of the process to train horses or hold a race meeting (float drivers, media crew, starting stall attendants etc). I wouldn't have tote staff involved because we are going to introduce a smart on-line presentation at a time of duress and we don't need extra risk of on course betting, although this may be introduced as we go along, as we understand the true nature of the beast in this country. We need to reduce the workforce in Petone. This is the golden opportunity to do this and also provide all other key employees the opportunity to stay on under reduced pay which wouldn't increase once the real embargo are lifted. They are being paid too much and most of them will be jobless unless we offer a candid solution. They can't be in the same building under lockdown rules. We go for an online solution only, with the introduction of additional systems from the savings of employees payments and the reduction of the mad salaries that are currently being paid to the likes of Glenn Saville etc. They've already stuffed things up so time and opportunity to start with a new crew. We need a seriously good Information Processing System (IPS) which is the Racing Post site on steroids. I know how to do it because I architected that in 1995. This would allow the international racing market (our customers) to have the tools to "get to know" our horses and people (distinctly different from the current idiot's positions in calling it "the Product"). The IPS could connect all the horses to all the owners (they can't see and touch their horses) and the content would then be available to all the punters. The media data could include videos and uploaded content that trainers/ staff and anyone else, decide to create. The owners (the owners of the data) could then allow their data (their discretion) to be used by the punters but that there is a default amount of information available. This could all be funded by the cost savings due to the layoffs and reduced salaries in Petone. And let's not get socialistic and unionist about this. These are extraordinary times and IF WE DON'T ACT, we will pay for it for years. When things were good, we were about to fail. While I'm at it, to have to provide a $17m annual fee to Paddy Power et al for the FOB platform, nows the time to kick that into touch and renegotiate. We're already millions behind on that (we haven't got some of the updates so we're being handicapped) and it isn't good and it was a crap deal. And sports in the meantime is crap. So we default and renegotiate. Now's the time!!! All bets are off. So back to racing. While all of this is going on, we have a chance of looking at things through clear lenses. The racing industry owns the tote. We've argued that for 30 years but the governmental powers that be, have chosen to act in an autocratic and dictatorial manner, and our bureaucratic representatives have been quite useless. Although the proposed Racing Bill has a suggested 126 changes in it from the latest round of submissions, unless it has what we need (first) and want (2nd) racing will always run second fiddle to politics. This this is our chance to reset the clock. We should simply say what we want and get on with the job. So to racing, for the next 6 months we may have a problem large enough to destroy the industry. When things were fine, we were messing it up. So let's change it. Let's use this period of financial and social duress to change things because we have to and want to. Winter racing is poor racing unless you can provide a spectacle. Yes Cambridge is going to have a all weather track. Only problem there is that it has a short straight and can only cater for less than 12 horses in each race before putting the racing real-estate under duress. I argued that if we were to build an all weather track, make it capable of taking 24 horses and for it to have a 800m straight at the very least. That way we can appeal to the international markets, have enough horses to make betting interesting (14+ horses in each race is ideal) and provide each horse with an equal chance despite the barrier draw. But no. They chose to put a square peg in a round hole by having the all weather on the existing race track where only a 300m straight was possible due to real estate that was available. That track didn't need to be where the current track was. So what is good winter racing? The UK has taught us that. Eight of the top ten betting races the UK are jumps. Amount bet on jumps racing vs flat racing....jumps 26% higher. Number of online or television spectators jumps versus flat...Jumps 23% higher. Biggest betting race in the UK and Ireland...Jumps race. Why you might ask? The intuitive response would be to say that jumpers are older horses so there are more opportunities to get to know the competitors. The second would be that people like the event to last longer. A third would be that with obstacles, the event (from an entertainment perspective) is far more exciting. The fourth is that people intuitively like to identify with courage and winners of these races exemplify that emotion. The fifth would be that people get bored with the money men (Arabs, Coolmore etc) winning races as the "small man" cannot afford to compete, whereas in jumping they can. So let's embrace these statistics and provide a new racing calendar for our winter racing. This just so happens to coincide with all of this virus stuff. Let's right now, and quickly look at NZ's whole race program and react very quickly. Let's set up a new competition to look after this winter/ wet track / jumps type of horse because there aren't enough good flat gallopers to provide the sort of competition that we need to make it appealing to the rest of the World for betting, so let's take two parts to this. The first is to create something of such interest that makes it different. That could be setting up a race competition for horses racing up to 5000m on the flat. Let's make a whole program for this. This would turn a few heads in the World and make it a unique betting opportunity. We have the horses, we just need the events. As its run in winter, the mere fact that they are slow doesn't matter. In 1793 each race in the UK calendar was 3 1/2 miles (that is 5638m) unless otherwise notified. There were only 42 notified races and they were all over 2 miles (3200m) and the traditional horse person objected to these because they thought it too short. As its winter, we can train them on softer tracks so better for them on their legs. You will find a new breed of participant if you do this. If you chop $50m out of the over bloated and inflated salaries in Petone, these races will be worth racing for. The second is to create a proper jumps calendar. We would start by a hierarchy of races. Unfortunately we don't have a large group of jumpers so we need to start a novice championship series for hurdlers and steeplechasers, with a graded pattern (initially done with incremental stakes levels) so that we set up the big iconic races culminating with the Great Northern Steeplechase. We can't leave out the flat gallopers as our two year olds and young ones need to be able to go through their paces. We could simply go through history and identify which races in the past (over the period of the next 6 months) were part of the stepping stones to horses that featured in large races later on and promote them better by having a focus on their relevance and educating people about this. Remember, you can't make a stayer a sprinter but you can make a sprinter stay. It's all about training the fast twitch fibre types to have slow twitch characteristics. But I think the main thing is that we need to change quickly at this time. We are in for a rocky road but if we do change NOW, then we might just beat the tide. So first things first, how do we get enough testing kits available to the racing industry participants (28,000) to get going? We need to fund this so let's get the Minister to do something properly and quickly. Let's get a group of racing's warriors to demand a change to the current program so that we survive. Let's take the opportunity to rationalise the current RIB's position and let's not rely on those currently in charge. Let's give any current RIB employee the opportunity to suggest how they would quickly restructure the RIB to enable it to be operational with 50% of the current racing with only an online offering. The brightest and smartest ideas keep their jobs in order to execute. This could be done by issuing a terms of reference document for them to work from. Let's go online and via phones to deliver a superior product quickly. I for one could get a team together to develop everything remotely in respect of the software needed. We could hold industry think tanks that ultimately report to a consensus appointed group who have the final say. This consensus appointed group would be appointed by EVERYONE in an online one person one vote environment. I'm picking this couldn't be any worse that has recently happened with the debacle over the proposed Racing Bill because anyone associated with that isn't really the type of person needed for this initiative. But we need to act now.....and by now I mean now!!! .....and I'm quite serious about this. We were in a mess before.....we were in a mess 20 years ago but no-one listened. Our mess is bigger than we now know....we need to get going...this is a time for a call to arms....set aside weird shit thoughts that we had the liberty to think about before....because our paradigm has just shifted.
  12. Berri

    I know this is not racing but...

    Gruff...You're confusing Swine Flu with Spanish Flu. Read my post, my ref was Spanish Flu
  13. Berri

    I know this is not racing but...

    Gruff...soryy to be the bearer of bad news....Spanish Flu was an influenza
  14. Berri

    I know this is not racing but...

    Not sure what you mean here. I didn't say the Spanish Flu was an influenza because to tell you the truth, I don't actually know what it was. Will need to step up to the plate and learn. There are now 16 companies around the World pushing versions of vaccines. It looks as though malaria and arthritis remedies are having good responses in trials in numerous countries. Here's a summary: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-contenders-for-covid-19-treatment-drugs-m6525krlv?shareToken=b07908a669e2d2e118be225e51dad6f5