Berri

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Berri last won the day on November 24

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  1. Berri

    Te Akau Thread

    But it may not be good for the industry. The pattern was all about trying to establish who the best horse was under a consistent pattern of races where horses could be franked against each other. Some of these races are tearing that apart and this is seriously short sighted. If you don't understand the theory of this, then you will never understand the reason why a pattern was created in the first place. The magic millions races are a subversion of the reason why the pattern was created. It bastardises the sires lists and the process of establishing who is the best. All you have to do is realise what happens (or not as the case may be) post these races and you will understand the absolute pointlessness of these races from a breeding perspective. They are media races that are having too much influence on the rest of the traditional reason for holding championships/
  2. I'll say it again, franking form is the only way to assess overall ratings. There are a number of bench marks but ultimately it ALWAYS comes down to one performance being compared with another. That is franking the form. You can bring any track type, race condition, bias that you want, but ratings will always come down to a comparative study of various horses being compared to each other. That includes year by year and even generation by generation.
  3. Franking form is the only way to assess overall ratings. You can't really accurately frank form because the NZTR site is such crap that it becomes difficult. It's not about times, although if a performance existed that was reinforced by additionally running a good time, then it would come into the equation. You can't run a time if you don't have an ultimately perfect (time wise) track, but you can have a horse blitz some of the best horses on the planet and be rated at the top of the tree. The Arc is one of these sort of races. When Dancing Brave won his Arc, it was a top ranking field so he was rated the way he was due to this.
  4. Based on Cox Plate and Mckinnon Stakes form yes. TAS finished in front of Magic Wand carrying 2 kgs more. Magic Wand and Melody Belle at level weights in McKinnon. So I would give TAS 2 lbs (1 kg)
  5. It's not about the number of wins, it's about the pecking order in respect of perceived ability. TAS ran 2nd the Dreamforce in the Tramway carrying half a kilo more than Dreamforce, then ran 2nd to Kolding in the Epsom giving Kolding 4 kgs. Kolding then went on to win the Golden Eagle off 57.5 beating Sunlight carrying 55.5. Sunlight ran 3rd in the Slipper, then won the Coolmore, William Reid and Newmarket. What did Melody Belle beat? The ratings are fair....
  6. I disagree. It's all about franking form and that's where the NZTR is shite. You can't do it. One of the more important cornerstones for the industry. It's all about career best efforts and comparing them with other horses having career best efforts.. As for Melody Belle, she's interesting. So where was she before and now. Try this...Her first two starts in Aussie Her win in the Sires Produce was quite good because there are a couple of horses you can frank the international form with. Taking Aim went to Hong Kong after this race. Although Melody Belle beat him, he beat her at their next start. After running 4th in the Danehill (G2), he went to HK where he has won a class 2 but no World beater. Pierata is interesting though, in that his best form is winning the All Aged Stakes beating Osborn Bulls and Seige of Quebec. Osborn Bulls best win was in a group 2 but he finished 2nd behind Sunlight in the Newmarket. Seige of Quebec's best win was in a Group 3 but ran 3rd in the Toorak. So any rating from this form is around 110. Melody Belle's next crack in Aussie produced the following So her rating could not have improved beyond 110 but take in mind that in Alizee's win, Alizee beat Malaguerra and Hartnel over 1200 (not either of these horses best distance) , so Alizee rated 114 at best. So what about the NZ form...in the Livermol. she beat Peso and Crown Prosecutor. Peso's best win is a listed race and Crown Prosecutor (CP) since winning the Derby was beaten 12 len by The Autumn Sun. He was rated 120 so CP rated 108 on Aussie run. Hasn't won since. So now yo9u get to Melody Belles best race, probably the Empire Rose beating Aristia. Aristia's best win was in the Oaks beating Greysful Glamour. Her best win was in the Oaks Trial (L). So the win over Aristia wasn't special. So to the final start...the real form frank of her career, the McKinnon. She was beaten by Magic Wand, who is a 3 win from 21 starts filly. Yes she's smart but she was rolled by the likes of Magical, Enable and Sea of Class whenever she met them. She was rated 112 and she beat Melody Belle after having run in the Melbourne Cup and Cox Plate. So where does Melody Belle fit? Well she's no better than Magic Wand on 114. Then frank the NZ form. If she is rated 114, then Catalyst is rated 110 but I would put a "p" after that rating to express that it should improve. You've got to get rid of the emotion and face up to reality...
  7. Berri

    Time Test

    I've always been amased at the supposed experts opinions on horses being reflected through the sales ring. So for me, first season sires with foals on the ground are the most interesting. Theoretically these experts are meant to be able to pick them. So have a look at these results from the latest Tattersals auction. I must say, Time Test has held up extremely well in comparison to the rest so they must have something EBN_Tatts Foals Time Test Day1.pdf
  8. Catalyst is rated 10 pounds inferior to the best 3 yo in Australia....
  9. Berri

    Time Test

    The National Stud saw two of its resident sires, Aclaim and Time Test, represented by their debut crop of foals at Tattersalls, and both received a warm reception. Time Test's offerings were topped by one of his sons, who went the way of Howson and Houldsworth, acting on behalf of Horse Kingdom, at 48,000gns. Offered by Tibthorpe Stud, the colt is out of the Cockney Rebel mare Rockme Cockney and from the further family of Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint heroine Belvoir Bay. Tim Lane, director of the National Stud, was among those watching on as the colt changed hands. "He's stamping them," he said of Time Test's progeny. "The people who bred to him seem happy and we're hearing good things. There are some very nice foals here by him - they're good-looking with good actions." Six of Time Test's foals sold on day one for an average of 24,335gns, having been conceived at a fee of £8,500.
  10. Berri

    B.P's BIG DAY AT PUKEKOHE

    We've seen racing's fortunes go down the gurgler in slow motion and the arrest is not in sight. One thing in common is that the television (or computer) is the shop front window for the sport. Universally the horse is referred to as the "product" and that betting has taken centre stage. Is there something wrong with my brain, or you tell me, if something doesn't work, aren't you meant to fix it? If this attitude of using the "product" in a particular way to sell betting isn't working, wouldn't you change it? The racing industry is all about the horse and the people associated with it, with the owner being King Kong. My memory is slowing becoming toast and in the yesteryear I knew the pedigree, breeding and colours of all the horses racing. My brain was sort of able to imagine the matrix of which horses matched which horses. The reason I got this is that I worked in a stable, or did the barriers, or went to the races, or owned a number, and that provided me with continuous imports of data which made me remember horses enough to maintain an interest. There was also an emphasis on who bred them and owned them, and these data entries helped me remember. Every little bit of info is another chance of prompting my memory to remember a particular horse. The expression familiarisation comes to mind. Now we've lost all of that. Don't even have the owners in the TAB race card. The drone of monotone syllables and sentences with no passion, talking about betting and some weird interpretation on race form is not capturing my imagination or interest. I don't get why nobody doesn't get that. Maybe I should be committing myself to some sort of health clinic while the industry continues to make a success of itself.
  11. Berri

    B.P's BIG DAY AT PUKEKOHE

    The problem that you have is these blokes only talk about betting and the merits of bets and their so called tipping prowess. If you sell the program on betting, then you'd like to capture your audience because you're good at that. They're not so they should keep away from it and concentrate on the horse. If you market placing bets on tips given by so called experts, and in 28 chances you only get 14 in the frame, and this has been a norm, then stop it. Sell the program on the horse, breeding, people and the love of the animal.
  12. Berri

    RACEFORM publication

    No its not. We are in a modern world now. I had a look at the distribution puzzle for the Informant when everything went to the wall and the one thing that stuck out was how do you get this paper into a many stores/ outlets quickly and efficiently. The distribution model was actually quite inefficient, and per copy, relatively expensive. It also didn't allow for migratory activities such as holiday access. The best time to get people into racing, or become interested, is when they are on holiday. So I researched printers because you do realise you can go into stores offshore now and get an entire bound book printed in less than 5 minutes. Much like waiting for a hamburger. Two sided printers are now only $99. So voila...you have the solution. A lot cheaper too. All you've got to do is create a business model that underwrites the printer/location process. Got to think outside of the box
  13. Berri

    So what's the real answer

    The analogy is spot on though....or didn't you get it?!?
  14. The recent RITA AGM makes interesting listening. A portion of the funds that are being accrued in the accounts are to strengthen the balance sheet, which if you look at them, are totally out of wack. I just can't understand why that happened...not. I've always been an advocate that racing needed to control its own destiny but all I'm hearing in any recent correspondence or release is that racing is waiting for government (WP and the DIA in particular) to get things sorted. This is continuously mentioned in the AGM address by Dean. So is this the real issue? It would seem reading between the lines that RITA have their hands, feet, fingers and toes tied by government. That got me thinking...why? So if you were looking at the full picture, we've got major national issues around the "clean and green" image, animal cruelty, methane gas emissions through farming, the concept that killing animals for meat is bad, strengthening of veganism in our society, and a general movement away from conventional humanoid activities such as shooting, hunting, climbing trees, touching women or men in a cheeky manner or taking the piss out (even in jest) of the minority groups who may have different skin colour or wear different clothing. So where does that leave racing? The mere function of racing is gladiatorial, so that won't appeal to the social movement sectors that are being drip fed into our political systems. The concept that horses may like running does not register to most, and this concept is eroded with continuing reports of animal cruelty and neglect without our industry standing up to these accusations because they are either too weak or stupid to do so. Erosion of the reasons why this industry actually exists continues unabated. Then you've got the political protection mechanisms to maintain the status quo, and in most cases this would seem to be funding mechanisms. We used to be race betting, Golden Kiwi and registered sweep stakes. Racing had 76% of the betting volume (now 11%) and 48,000 direct employees to the industry (now 18,000). We used to have triple the amount of mares being served and being on the ballot was a regular occurrence. Why do you think trials were introduced? History would state that it was to prove your horse was good enough to qualify for a race. Like the change of AI meaning artificial insemination to now meaning artificial intelligence, trials are now a place to educate your horses. So you have to understand the picture in its totality. Golden Kiwi was replaced by the lotteries, which could only be described as a safe haven governmental slush fund. It instantly eroded racing's gaming market share which meant that the cost structure to hold the racing game was going to increase. Then the internet came along and that put pressure on both the lotteries and racing....then the casinos (including pokies) and online casinos. So the governmental slush funds come under pressure. That's where the politicians can deliver their legal bribes to the likes of sports clubs, grass roots art and aboriginal initiatives. So the only way to ensure some form of financial stability is control. As racing was one of the biggest betting/ gambling service providers, it needed controlling. The 2003 Racing Act effectively did that and the likes of Rick Bettle (a government stooge), Gary Chittick (the most destructive RIB leader of our time) and Murray Aklin (arguably the most creative receiver of pokie funds) allowed the TAB, its activities, and the ownership of racing depart racing's shores and end up in the coffers of government. This was achieved by ensuring all the activities needed to be signed off by the Minister, including the accounts. In addition to that, it pointedly included a clause that said that any claims as to the ownership of the TAB were set aside and vested with government. So now government has control. Why do you think the RITA Annual Accounts have no photos of racing in it other than the front cover. It's all about sports. It's about subverting the funds to others using a platform that has/ is underwritten by racing while change control occurs. So add to that knowledge that now parliament has the animal rights activists,, urban type minded people who have had little or no exposure to animals or the country side, think gambling is a social disease, and see race horse owners and breeders as some sort of socially elite minority, and there you have it....the real reason why development of the industry will continue to be slowed to a snails pace. Our only chance is to really change the game. We need someone who will take the plunge and REALLY change the game!!! We need a new way of directing racing without government intervention in order to liberate it. Is there a Minister for Rugby, Sailing, sheep shearing? So I'll start the ball rolling...let's get someone interested in government to allow racing to make its own financial and social argument that sees the tote being vested back into racing's hands, where the bureaucracy is a commercial structure with commercial rules, that promotes commercial decisions (and not political ones) to drive the industry forward. If we leave this too long, we will fade into oblivion. Now that the full plan has been exposed, let's reject it and say we need to be able to push the reset button. If I could find that person in parliament, would you be up for it?
  15. Berri

    Can anyone tell me...

    We need to get away from government intervention, restructure the rights to betting, change the archaic way the structure of racing currently is and amortise the value of everything we have.. I'm with P4P...I smell a rat and its not a friendly one...