Ellerslie infographic

[Pete Lane 639]

[Idolmite 2,566]

Will be interesting what the stats say [since reportedly data doesn't lie  ] with a much greater number of races as a sample, say after 12 months. 

While maybe the data doesn't lie, people that work with numbers can make those numbers say anything they want them too. Data can be manipulated and those releasing the data can choose what to release and what not to release. Do the stats look a lot better when you use 600 metres as the base point, as opposed to say 450 metres or 700 metres? Who knows.

To the naked eye without even giving it too much thought [I'm a very small and extremely casual punter - I never watch an entire meeting - lying on the couch and often nodding off  ] or bothering to watch any replays, the first meeting looked like a leader's bias and improving slightly at more recent meetings. The stats appear to back that up, but we're only talking 40 races total, even less with the split to get the "improving data". It would be nice to see the three sets of figures they are using at 33.33333333333% each. Unless they're doing a Pride of Jenni or Kotare Chief, I much prefer watching races with horses running on from midfield or beyond. That's nothing to do with punting.. l just find it more spectacular and interesting to watch than follow the leader stuff. Like Kiwi in the Melbourne Cup. 

[nomates 3,609]

1 minute ago, Idolmite said:

Will be interesting what the stats say [since reportedly data doesn't lie  ] with a much greater number of races as a sample, say after 12 months. 

While maybe the data doesn't lie, people that work with numbers can make those numbers say anything they want them too. Data can be manipulated and those releasing the data can choose what to release and what not to release. Do the stats look a lot better when you use 600 metres as the base point, as opposed to say 450 metres or 700 metres? Who knows.

To the naked eye without even giving it too much thought [I'm a very small and extremely casual punter - I never watch an entire meeting - lying on the couch and often nodding off  ] or bothering to watch any replays, the first meeting looked like a leader's bias and improving slightly at more recent meetings. The stats appear to back that up, but we're only talking 40 races total, even less with the split to get the "improving data" would be nice to see the three sets of figures they are using at 33.33333333333% each. Unless they're doing a Pride of Jenni or Kotare Chief, I much prefer watching races with horses running on from midfield or beyond. That's nothing to do with punting.. l just find it more spectacular and interesting to watch than follow the leader stuff. Like Kiwi in the Melbourne Cup. 

Get what your saying Idolmite , but I love a front runner , I love it when a horse says if your good enough catch me . Not a sit and sprint but like PoJ on Saturday , she just says I'm going all out if you can match me go for it and good luck , nothing better .

[Insider 3,973]

I am currently half way through my self imposed "no response to anything that Leggy posts"  but maybe I can call on all his wisdom and data to tell us what the "draws" are saying after the half a dozen meetings run on the new track at Ellerslie.

Liz

[nomates 3,609]

Just now, Insider said:

I am currently half way through my self imposed "no response to anything that Leggy posts"  but maybe I can call on all his wisdom and data to tell us what the "draws" are saying after the half a dozen meetings run on the new track at Ellerslie.

Liz

Come back please , he's doing my head in , reinforcements required .

[Idolmite 2,566]

1 hour ago, nomates said:

Get what your saying Idolmite , but I love a front runner , I love it when a horse says if your good enough catch me . Not a sit and sprint but like PoJ on Saturday , she just says I'm going all out if you can match me go for it and good luck , nothing better .

 

That's why I said "Unless they're doing a Pride of Jenni or Kotare Chief, I much prefer watching races with horses running on from midfield or beyond."

A good front runner can be very spectacular too. 

[Leggy 4,096]

1 hour ago, Insider said:

I am currently half way through my self imposed "no response to anything that Leggy posts"  but maybe I can call on all his wisdom and data to tell us what the "draws" are saying after the half a dozen meetings run on the new track at Ellerslie.

Liz

Probably best to stay there Liz. Nowhere near enough available data to do that. Not sure why you would want to know anyway. Some on here seem to think I think barrier draws are irrelevant even though I don't and never said that.

[Gruff 2,807]

1 hour ago, Idolmite said:

 

That's why I said "Unless they're doing a Pride of Jenni or Kotare Chief, I much prefer watching races with horses running on from midfield or beyond."

A good front runner can be very spectacular too. 

You are a good man Mitey, i really do love your analysis and opinion . I've said many times to be born in the late 40s NZ you have seen the Best of life here . We are going down the shithouse

[Blue 1,099]

Ellerslie has yet to have anything but a good track. Once it's been through a winter of shitty weather (regardless if it races or not) and the vagaries of spring weather maybe this time next year a different and more stable pattern will emerge.