RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
mulebacker

Hastobeawinner and the Race Pace

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I backed Bella waters in the last at Ellerslie yesterday being a big track and  straight and good for horses coming from the back

However Hastobeawinner took an uncontested lead , slowed them down,  making it near on impossible for the back markers to close

So no banana for bella

How can you get an indication of what the likely pace will be - as this determines most of the result?

1/ Having a couple a horses who always want to lead would help

             I am aware of the running style of the horses - tho they can lead on some races but not others maybe depending on their barrier

2/ A big field

3/ A trainer putting in a sprinter into the field where he wanted the speed on

I suppose I could start digging around the  400m times but applying that is another matter

 

How do youse experts get a handle on the likely pace ??

 

 

 

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It's an inexact science , who is expected to lead and who ends up leading are 2 completely different things . The horse most expected to lead in the Derby yesterday ended up 4/5 back on the fence . 

Even if the expected leader does indeed end up there one of the bad habits that has crept into racing is the jockeys taking the pace right out of the race , actually whoever leads usually slows the race down .

I've given up trying to work out where my bet will position up as I find that very few horses are ridden the same way on a regular basis . It's a hit and hope IMO . 

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I tend to keep it simple and just identify how many will want to go forward, what barriers they will be coming from, and whether or not there will be a duel with multiple forward runners.  Then I map that against the ones I fancy to determine how the speed may influence them running their best race.  Trying to work out anything more than that is advanced calculus in my view.

Nomates is correct that the current game is littered with jockeys wanting to walk once in front (even worse in the harness code).  And those in behind the pace let them get away with it because a mid-race attack is often considered a bad move on review if it doesnt come off.

Disclaimer: You asked for an expert view and that I am definitely not 😂

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I would say that most jockeys here don't even understand that it's the 2nd horse that actually dictates the pace that a race is run at . Something that has crept into races that does my head in is jockeys taking their horse to the front one off the fence by 1/2 a length , why not just take it forward and cross to the fence .

But as you say PS I'm no expert either .

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1 hour ago, nomates said:

I would say that most jockeys here don't even understand that it's the 2nd horse that actually dictates the pace that a race is run at . Something that has crept into races that does my head in is jockeys taking their horse to the front one off the fence by 1/2 a length , why not just take it forward and cross to the fence .

But as you say PS I'm no expert either .

Exactly. It's long been said in harness racing, the horse in the death seat actually controls the pace. Punters especially complain if a horse leads, slows things down then sprints away leaving little chance for back runners. In actual fact that's good tactics by the leading jockey if it comes off.There are no rules to this otherwise it would be easy to pick a pattern. Just back the horse you think will win for whatever reason.

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8 hours ago, mulebacker said:

I backed Bella waters in the last at Ellerslie yesterday being a big track and  straight and good for horses coming from the back

However Hastobeawinner took an uncontested lead , slowed them down,  making it near on impossible for the back markers to close

So no banana for bella

How can you get an indication of what the likely pace will be - as this determines most of the result?

1/ Having a couple a horses who always want to lead would help

             I am aware of the running style of the horses - tho they can lead on some races but not others maybe depending on their barrier

2/ A big field

3/ A trainer putting in a sprinter into the field where he wanted the speed on

I suppose I could start digging around the  400m times but applying that is another matter

 

How do youse experts get a handle on the likely pace ??

The Japanese have got the right idea with pacemakers, it almost seems like they work it out between themselves here at times 🙄 it seems every time you back an on pace runner its 'awkward' or misses the kick, and when you back a swooper its a walkfest.... Everything about this game is a gamble, you should know the odds so now try and beat them 🤣

 

 

 

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Here's the Formpro Ratings speed map for the last.  Switowski was another expected pace influence based on its previous starts but made no effort to run on pace.  Even so, it was on of those races where on paper at least there was a high likelihood of a lack of pace.

Screenshot 2024-03-03 at 18-19-50 Speed Map.png

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Interesting alright Dazzer, if you were a Jockey riding in a race of this nature what would you do ? A good judge of pace would be flushed out to improve or be 'forced into adopting different more pro active tactics from.the outset ...as many seem to do in races with positive speed maps🙄😆 its racing, mug punters take  their medicine and move on...then complain again next week 🤣

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On 3/3/2024 at 7:37 PM, Gruff said:

 

Grasshoppersan one must watch 1000 races before the student even understands the question. Going to the keiba it was more fum watching the japonaise than the ponies

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17 hours ago, mulebacker said:

Seems promisjng i will check for awhile if worthwhile maybe i can roll my own i got data coming out my ears thanks

All Punters are mugs Muley but it can be  very 'rewarding' at times.you can crunch data till the Cows come home and horses like Slipper Island can still be beaten out of a place...the Sporting World is full of of unlikely results and these don't just come about because a few choose to pull the Wool. The God's are having a laugh 🤣 Happy punting 

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2 hours ago, Pak Star said:

I thought I was an "investor"?  At least thats what Pippa Morris tells me all the time when reminding me I have 2 minutes to get my investments on before the race jumps. 

Portfolio never seems to grow though...

 

The world has always been full of dubious investors and dodgy investments 🤣

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