barryb

Rua R05 #10 Super Dailo

11:50 Riccarton R01 #9 Captain Oumuamua

Ric & Gate Pa Saturday 21st 12:05 bop R01 4 Fast Impact 12:38 bop R02 4 Pleasing 13:13 bop R03 9 Smart Tip 13:50 bop R04 6 Swindle 14:32 bop R05 6 Grace 'n' Glory 15:07 bop R06 5 Maldini 15:42 bop R07 5 Rareza 11:50 ric R01 9 Captain Oumuamua 12:22 ric R02 4 A Mandarin 13:28 ric R04 1 Avitus 14:03 ric R05 10 On Song 14:03 ric R05 4 Victorian Charm 14:40 ric R06 3 Where's Wally 15:15 ric R07 6 He's Tunza Grunt 15:50 ric R08 6 Explosive Lass 15:50 ric R08 9 Shaking Stevens

Confidence based on what?. As you know I don't consider whether any bet is a great chance or not, as more often that not I would get this wrong (like almost all punters). I Level stakes all bets (Which can be risky as it exposes your bank to more higher priced runners) & increase my bet if the runner price drifts 50% above opening & then plonk more on if it drifts 100% & so on. I can have significant bets on massive drifters which is fantastic when they come in. I have used multitudes of staking models over the years & I have not found one that out performed level stakes over a period of time.

Otaki 20/06 11:30 ota R01 11 Waza Dream 12:02 ota R02 1 Crafty Colin 12:37 ota R03 5 Good Craic 13:12 ota R04 2 On Shaw 15:01 ota R07 4 Perfectsister 15:37 ota R08 5 Don't Ask 16:12 ota R09 4 Timmy

Another lovely winning day.

Here's an incredibly simple tool to determine how much to bet per selection. Its design was originally for sports betting but adaptable for racing by moving the slide along to conservative. https://kellycriterioncalculator.com/

18/06 Cambridge R02 2 Kakadu R03 10 Best Dressed R04 4 Unequivocal R07 7 Dangerous Liaisons R08 1 Goldburg R09 2 Branciforti R10 3 Cheap Sav

Don't bother. Since my SR is below 15% it's unlikely I will find an individual winner.

To a degree yes, however it’s largely ignored. I constantly hear commentators, tipsters, general punters taking back markers in a slow tempo race which is a licence to lose money. Back markers are a terrible betting proposition unless you understand what factors are required for them to win. The quickest way to improve your results is to ignore anything that consistently sits in the back half of the field. You know the ones, sit near last, roar home & everyone says next start or a bit further is all it needs. Next time it’s chronically overbet & repeats the run or runs into trouble, the form says blocked for a run or unlucky & the cycle repeats. Eventually it wins at the shittest odds as everyone is climbing aboard.

Doing things differently to others will increase your chances. 1) Putting an increasing amount on a drifter, seems illogical, but it’s exactly what you should be doing as you are getting increased value. ie: Because in race 8 today opened at $17 which was already great value, drifted to $35 making it the best value of the day. 2) It’s well known but ignored often, the winner nearly 80% of the time comes from the first 4 turning for home. 3) Tempo of the race determines who has realistic chances or not, factor in position in the running. 4) Class beats form. 5) Jockeys are overbet & best ignored in chasing value. 6) Read the race bottom up, strange fact but most start at no 1 & don’t get halfway through the field & have chosen there bet.

As you say, money management is the No1 reason most lose more than they should. 1) They have way more on early in the day losers & little or nothing when the winners show up. 2) They pour money on a shortener, in the mistaken belief it’s chances of winning are increasing because the weight of money says it should. 3) They over bet for the size of bank or the temperament they have & as a result chop & change likely winning ideas. 4) Take tips from people who are no better at punting than they are. 5) Focus far too much or last start form & overbet as a result. 6) Give far too much credence to 1 or 2 form factors which in isolation are insignificant, ie: Barrier Draw, Weight Carried, Apprentice Claim in the wet, Track & Distance stats etc.

Super day, makes up for a poor Saturday.

Not quite right, you need to back horses that are paying above there true chance of winning. Most punters make the mistake of trying to back the winner, that is flawed unless they are overs, you will lose regardless of how many winners you find as you wont be able to beat the TAB margin. Value (True Chance) is subjective of course as there is no one real way to determine this, the Starting Price is the most accurate the market can be & there can be many factors determining weight of money which can be red herrings. To win you need to find runners more often than not that are above there true chance of winning (using your method that is proven at finding good value), there are countless ways to assess this. No one way is better than the other, however it is other punters you must beat not the TAB, as it is other punters that create or destroy value, following what the majority are doing is the quickest way to lose. You must find value before other punters, winners will take care of themsleves, have a bank that is able to sustain long losses.

Sunday 13:40 mat R05 5 Hey Hey Baby 14:13 mat R06 3 Small Town Girl 15:24 mat R08 2 Because 15:24 mat R08 6 Polamalu 16:05 mat R09 3 Tregor 13:16 omr R03 5 Corista 14:28 omr R05 8 Shejengar 15:40 omr R07 4 Divine Spirit Rough as guts, but some nice value all the same.