Pedigree Patterns

[Swynford 121]

Only a fool would ignore the plain facts. These are the foolish statistics:-

502 foals

339 runners

2 GR1 winners Daffodil (ex O’Reilly mare), I Do (ex O’Reilly mare)

O’Reilly mares have produced 77 foals by No Excuse Needed.

Mares by other sires have produced 425 foals by No Excuse Needed. To date no Group One winners amongst them.

 

And no Group Two winners either

[Swynford 121]

Berri

 

 To be fair to Swynford he is consistent with his theory --bottom line of the stallion matching the top line of the broodmare sire (ie tracing back to a common mare. In this case Best in Show)

 

Thanks Breeder, tiz all hindsight but helps with fore sight

[fitzy 143]

Swynford have you done any analysis of the success or otherwise of in breeding to Danehill.

Say 3 x 3 cross, 3 x 4 cross. Gene pool may be too young to go further.

Would be interesting given the amount of stallions and mares with Danehill in the line up.

 

My mates and I have bred a Danasinga mare to Zed for the past 2 seasons. First foal now a weanling looks ok, fairly short coupled, but seems to have some scope.

[Swynford 121]

Can you give me the mares name and I will have a look at it for you

[Irishbay 18]

Swynford have you done any analysis of the success or otherwise of in breeding to Danehill.

Say 3 x 3 cross, 3 x 4 cross. Gene pool may be too young to go further.

Would be interesting given the amount of stallions and mares with Danehill in the line up.

 

My mates and I have bred a Danasinga mare to Zed for the past 2 seasons. First foal now a weanling looks ok, fairly short coupled, but seems to have some scope.

Hi Fitzy We have done a similar thing with Zacinto/Encharm mating, hopefully the double of Danehill works :-)

The other thing I have noticed is that the Danzig line seems to work well on the bottom side of the pedigree.

Often you will see winners from the Kashani, Volksrad Danehill and Danzig line mares.  Food for thought.

[Swynford 121]

Your observation can be duplicated using per incanto with oreilly mares also. I have done so.

Doubles up on try my best in the same pattern .

 

I think we have spoken about this pattern before.  

 

There is also a big connection between the horse Tourbillon on the male line of Centaine with Mr Prospector's dam. They are made up of the same two female families.  Appears in pedigree of Dal Cialo

 

 

[Swynford 121]

Tourbillon male line mares with Mr Prospector

[Swynford 121]

Pedigree of American Pharoah

[Berri 2,131]

Swynford

I'm still trying to understand clearly what you are trying to sell us. Do you have a computer program that trawls through pedigrees in order to identify a pedigree configuration that is continuously successful, or do you visually look at a pedigree and draw out features that appeal to you? I'm just trying to understand the motivation

[Swynford 121]

I don't think you will ever understand Berri  

 

in short I think it was John Singleton who once said  "a ounce of blood is worth a ton of bone"   I would have to totally agree with him but I doubt you ever will. 

 

And I don't think it is a coincidence that our two champion two year olds from last year Marky Mark and Dal Ceilo are both from Mr Prospector line stallions and have mares in their pedigrees that trace in male line to Tourbillon.  So see nothing wrong with copying that. 

 

And yes to both of your questions about my computer program, and I don't believe any other program or pedigree analysist has picked up the connection between these two.

 

to my motivation, to help others see that much can be done to the out come of a mating by carefully selecting the right mare, rather than the other way around. It has been said many times before that the mare is 60% of the mating but I think even more. Stat's from Arion that I have seen and we can all buy for five bucks show just that.  

 

In the example below,, Green Desert may be dead , but with the right mare we could breed back to him for decades 

 

 

[rosie one 177]

I really enjoyed reading these posts .... hope some more come up soon.  

Always interesting to see different points of views when it comes to breeding thoroughbreds. 

Personally Bloodlines are important. ..but they always come second to the type of horse is standing in front of you at the end of the day.

You could bred to the most desirable bloodlines the market has to offer/marketed the best and end up with a three hoof  horse that no one will buy or bother racing. 

So when I breed thoroughbreds I enjoy taking time studying bloodlines rather relaxing part of the process and then 11.5 mths later the  foal is born the first thing I am really hoping is that the foal is a great looking and  well balanced type and the cleaner the front leg joints are the better.....this type does not come along offen.

 

 

 

 

[Swynford 121]

Rosie  ..glad your are interested.   will post Zabeel's compatible brood-mare  stats below.  he left 3 Group One winners from 129 Danehill mares 1 of those mares produced 2 of them so 1 from the other 128.   so 1 in 40 odd or without her 1 in 100 plus.   not very good odds.

 

[Swynford 121]

yet with VICE REGAL mares   every 8th foal was a Group  One inner

[rosie one 177]

yet with VICE REGAL mares   every 8th foal was a Group  One inner

You read very interestingly Swynford.

I have got and Mare that is Northern dancer free, she does have a double up of the Biscay in your mind what type of Sires would you aim for with this mare? Rose and Storm is her name.

[globederby12 1,495]

I really enjoyed reading these posts .... hope some more come up soon.

Always interesting to see different points of views when it comes to breeding thoroughbreds.

Personally Bloodlines are important. ..but they always come second to the type of horse is standing in front of you at the end of the day.

You could bred to the most desirable bloodlines the market has to offer/marketed the best and end up with a three hoof  horse that no one will buy or bother racing.

So when I breed thoroughbreds I enjoy taking time studying bloodlines rather relaxing part of the process and then 11.5 mths later the  foal is born the first thing I am really hoping is that the foal is a great looking and  well balanced type and the cleaner the front leg joints are the better.....this type does not come along offen.

 

 

 

 

Im not at all involved in the Thoroughbred industry,but have a close relative highly involved in training and buying horses for a large successful syndicate,and I totally agree with your comment "type". At the Karaka sales,he will spend most of his time alone looking at type,literally most of the horses on offer,without one look at pedigree,just marking down those that they will follow into the ring. They were the underbidder on Mongolian Khan,that I know, and have come up with some really top notch horses over the years. Not throwing the baby out with the bathwater of course,but the best bred don,t always translate into good horses,and I am sure that is not lost on most judges of pedigree stock. This is only from a buyers perspective though

[Swynford 121]

I will have a look at your mare Rosie One over the weekend 

Unfortunately not many people understand pedigrees at a very high level so can imagine people will always buy or breed with their eyes with whats in front of them.

But I don't agree that type is more important than bloodlines. 

Firstly... all the horses that are in the Premier Session are looked over thoroughly before the sales so are selected on type. Yet how many Group One winners come from these sales.      1 in 8 ?   no  where near it , more like 1 in 100

 And most of the time one has to pay huge money for a nice looking horse.

 Secondly...and I agree that faults in both stallion and the mare should be avoided ..  I have bred a horse and he looks nothing like either his sire or dam. The mare was very plain 

 I was also informed recently of a planned matings I did that it was the nicest looking horse he had ever bred.

Blood   (or genes ) produces bone, not the other way around. 

[globederby12 1,495]

Swynford, I was using an example only. My interest is Standard breds and I have had some interesting conversations with my close relative on the breeding scene.

Back in the 60,s in USA, AI was introduced to standardbred, breeding. The long term outcome of this was a narrow gene pool,as only influential horses got to shine with easier access to them,and the less fancy lines died. This shows in our own industry with the Art Scooter blood line very dominant. I notice your comment on the narrowing of the breed,inbreeding, and duplication of certain influential horses,and also a comment that with successful crosses the best one can expect is a 20% success rate.

These two examples have parallels ,and one reason my family member has perfected his eye for type. From a laymans perspective ,it is no more a risk picking type over breeding,taking all the permutations into consideration.

"One good horse is all one needs', seems to be rather hit and miss still,and everyones dream when buying a horse to race.

Regards Globe

[rosie one 177]

I lookingl have aI'veok at your mare Rosie One over the weekend 

Unfortunately not many people understand pedigrees at a very high level so can imagine people will always buy or breed with their eyes with whats in front of them.

But I don't agree that type is more important than bloodlines. 

Firstly... all the horses that are in the Premier Session are looked over thoroughly before the sales so are selected on type. Yet how many Group One winners come from these sales.      1 in 8 ?   no  where near it , more like 1 in 100

 And most of the time one has to pay huge money for a nice looking horse.

 Secondly...and I agree that faults in both stallion and the mare should be avoided ..  I have bred a horse and he looks nothing like either his sire or dam. The mare was very plain 

 I was also informed recently of a planned matings I did that it was the nicest looking horse he had ever bred.

Blood   (or genes ) produces bone, not the other way around. 

Swynford... Ive been spoilt somewhat...I've only been in the breeding game for a short time a.. decade or so and have bred a couple of nice horses that have gone on to win races both horses were good lookers, one commercially bred and the other was the result of 8 mths studying bloodlines just about every night after work, I really found studying bloodlines really enjoyable learnt loads as well.

Any way the result was the commercially bred one had shocking knees and I spent a tonne of money on a drug course to slow down his growth plates so he would make it to the races...he was sold for  good $$$.

The non commercially bred one had clean front joints but was passed in at the sales, he won multiple races.

The commercially bred one, won one race and was placed at open level.. so I can see what you are trying to tell me... I'm still learning and I am very keen to know more about breeding thoroughbreds.  

Looking forward to your views on my mare and what stallions you like.

[Swynford 121]

Rosie,   I had a look at your mare and who you have mated her with and come to the conclusion that you must have either done a lot of study or through share chance you have mated her with a stallion that is a wonderful match for her from a line breeding point of view.

When planning matings I always start with the male line of the mare and try and duplicate that in a stallion. (have spoken about this before on Race cafe , the top line of the mare with the bottom line of the stallion)  and you could not have done better with her with Zed as we can see from the example below.

 Rose And Storm traces in male line to Royal Charger and Zed traces in female line to his mother Sun Princess.  I have moved her forward in the pedigree a few generations for easier viewing. To me this is perfect and with stats that I have seen from Arion, it produces the best results when trying to identify where Group One winners come from. 

[Swynford 121]

Sooo..  important to have a second line breeding pattern in any mating so next place to look is at the second dam.  Using the bias thing both her and her mother trace in male line through Biscay to Hyperion and already know that 1/3 of his Sir T's Group One winners where out of Hyperion (or Sickle ) male line mares so 2nd dam got  what it takes to breed back to him.

[rosie one 177]

15 hours ago, Swynford said:

Rosie,   I had a look at your mare and who you have mated her with and come to the conclusion that you must have either done a lot of study or through share chance you have mated her with a stallion that is a wonderful match for her from a line breeding point of view.

When planning matings I always start with the male line of the mare and try and duplicate that in a stallion. (have spoken about this before on Race cafe , the top line of the mare with the bottom line of the stallion)  and you could not have done better with her with Zed as we can see from the example below.

 Rose And Storm traces in male line to Royal Charger and Zed traces in female line to his mother Sun Princess.  I have moved her forward in the pedigree a few generations for easier viewing. To me this is perfect and with stats that I have seen from Arion, it produces the best results when trying to identify where Group One winners come from. 

It is always great to get the reassurance from someone else when it comes to mixing bloodlines, this mare has taken me years to get and I went to Ekraar twice to get her, I fell in love with the mares family back in the early nineties when riding Rosias at Avondale, she could churn out 33s over 600m without blinking an eye and under a hold. I waited 10 years to get my hands on Rosias to be my first broodmare.

Thank you so much Swynford for your time and input.  

The resulting foal from the above mating is extremely tidy and very easy on the eye to look at too, cannot wait to see how he develops further, so far so good  

[Swynford 121]

all the best Rosie ...hope he wins plenty.    appropriate pedigree today being Melbourne Cup Day great example of using the top line of the mare with the bottom line of the stallion.

and then using the names on the male lines the 2nd and subsequent dams and duplicating the brood-mare sires in the stallion. 

[MPERKINS 20]

I have enjoyed reading the threads, all the best Rosie also, highly interested in the bloodlines and have been tracing, my Mare and Stallion back through Secretariat, Pocahontas, Hautboy, etc and picking up a bit of learning about the large heart gene. Is this also something to be considered when picking a pairing, I would be interested on thoughts about this?

 

[rosie one 177]

On ‎2‎/‎11‎/‎2015‎ ‎5‎:‎09‎:‎56‎, Swynford said:

Rosie,   I had a look at your mare and who you have mated her with and come to the conclusion that you must have either done a lot of study or through share chance you have mated her with a stallion that is a wonderful match for her from a line breeding point of view.

When planning matings I always start with the male line of the mare and try and duplicate that in a stallion. (have spoken about this before on Race cafe , the top line of the mare with the bottom line of the stallion)  and you could not have done better with her with Zed as we can see from the example below.

 Rose And Storm traces in male line to Royal Charger and Zed traces in female line to his mother Sun Princess.  I have moved her forward in the pedigree a few generations for easier viewing. To me this is perfect and with stats that I have seen from Arion, it produces the best results when trying to identify where Group One winners come from. 

Swynford, speaking of Melbourne cup horses, there is one back in this Rose and Storm's female  line of the family, have you ever come across Merriwee, he won the VRC Derby and Melbourne cup.

 Just the tip of a very successful family. Sappho 

Merriwee blk. c.
(Bill of Portland - Etra Weenie)
Owned by Victorian sportsman Herbert Power, who favored Sappho descendants, Merriwee won the VRC's C.B. Fisher Plate, Victoria Derby, and the Melbourne Cup at age three. He was one of four stakes winners from his dam, Etra Weenie; his full sister, Wigelmar (winner of the 4 furlong VATC Debutant Stakes) was the conduit through which the family descends to the present. A half-sister, Diffidence, won the AJC Sydney Cup in 1899 became dam of Maribyrnong Plate winner Gold Brew and Caulfield Guineas winner Andelosia, and bred on through the 20th century. Merriwee was purchased as a stallion by the well-known owner and breeder E.J. Watt of Sydney and Auckland, New Zealand; he was sent to stud in New Zealand, where he proved a useful sire of classic winners, and particularly of big Cup and handicap winners.

 

 

[Swynford 121]