Cox Plate

[Rambling_Kidd 160]

Your thoughts .......

 

1:  Green Moon   ...   $ 15   ---  Prebble

2:  Happy Trails   ...   $ 15   ---  Dunn

3:  Fiorente         ....   $ 4.40  --- Shinn  

4:  Foreteller       ....   $ 31  ---  tba

5:  Side Glance   ....  $  61  ---  Williams

6:  Seville           .....  $  31  ---  Bowman

7:  Rekindled In   ....  $  31  ---  Zahra

8:  Puissance d l  ...   $ 4.40  --  tba

9:  Masked Marvel  .. $ 31  ----  Hall  ?

10:  Mull of K     .....  $  51  ----  Arnold

11:  Dundeel      ....  $  3.30  ---  McDonald 

12:  Super Cool   ....  $  31  ----  Brown

13:   Atlantic Jewel 

14:  Long John    ....  $  9  --- Mcevoy

15:  Shamus Aw..  ...  $ 31  --- Schofield

[lecithin 429]

It's A Dundeel and Fiorente to fight it out, with IAD coming out on top.  If Atlantic Jewel runs (I see Kavanagh is already threatening to scratch her if the track is wet and the forecast isn't great) she might run 3rd.  Plenty (including myself) willing to lay AJ on Betfair and she's drifted significantly in the last 24 hours from $2.5 to $3.2+ and there are no backers...... that in itself tells a story.

[Todamax101 533]

Forecast for Melbourne is showers all week, so it doesn't bode well for Atlantic Jewel.

 

It's a Dundeel for mine, he may have had the setback but he's lean and tenacious, plus he can sustain a long run which is part of what won Ocean Park the Cox Plate last year. Super Cool seems to have slipped under the radar and with the right run is capable of upstaging the others, though he might need to lift a little on his Turnbull run.

[eastern whipbird 82]

Dundeel will need to take off from the 800 a la Bonecrusher

[Todamax101 533]

Latest update is that the Williams camp will accept with Green Moon, Seville, and Masked Marvel.

[Bear 30]

Seville in the Cox Plate?!?! Geez I hope not - will ruin him for the Melbourne Cup, wouldn't it?! I managed to get on at $61 and got plenty off him in the Metrop - thought he looked a Melbourne Cup hope after running 2nd to GREEN MOON in the Turnbull last year; perhaps the injury break was a blessing in disguise...I hope so!

[Trump 2,741]

Seville will run a nice 7th in the Cox in prep for the MC. Green Moon for the CP. Masked Marvel is a huge chance in the MC.

[TBHunter 100]

Id be cagey about a horse that's had a recent abscess in its near side fore heel going into a left hand race.
Sure horses bounce back once the pressure has popped but that doesn't mean that the damage is healed.
If it was my horse Id be nervous.
  

[Guest 2Admin2]

Id be cagey about a horse that's had a recent abscess in its near side fore heel going into a left hand race.

Sure horses bounce back once the pressure has popped but that doesn't mean that the damage is healed.

If it was my horse Id be nervous.

How much are you willing to lay?

[TBHunter 100]

Hmmm.
See what tomorrow brings.
 

[Twizzler 7]

It's A Dundeel and Fiorente to fight it out, with IAD coming out on top.  If Atlantic Jewel runs (I see Kavanagh is already threatening to scratch her if the track is wet and the forecast isn't great) she might run 3rd.  Plenty (including myself) willing to lay AJ on Betfair and she's drifted significantly in the last 24 hours from $2.5 to $3.2+ and there are no backers...... that in itself tells a story.

 

Given the majority of rain is forecast to fall today (Tuesday), I doubt it will play a factor 10-20ml forecast and then a chance of showers Wednesday and Thursday. The track will be no worse than dead and Atlantic Jewel will take her place in the race.

 

Now last time as the bookie, I took a big hit laying IAD, and you ended up with a theoretical 100k in your pocket, but like any bookie, I have taken it on the chin and will front up again and offer you 7-1 about the horse. Now if I'm willing to write a bet to lose 800k, would you be all in on the horse once again?

 

I unfortunately allowed myself to be a little overconfident in the Underwood and was ignorant of a couple of things against her, namely the track conditions and the belief that she would lead completely uncontested and hence sprint too well, despite my strong belief she is a far better horse ridden cold.

 

I have to say, on paper, the race is devoid of any real pace. Those saying it will be a high pressure race with a sprint from the 800m mark, I have know idea if they've bothered to look at the likely field. The only horse with any proper tactical speed is this little known import Mull of Killough who I've noticed tends to settle on speed from watching a couple of his races. Other than that, perhaps Happy Trails or Long John might push forward depending on barriers but other than that they will all be looking to swoop late and be coming from a fair way back.

 

I have the mare running midfield off a moderate tempo and then dashing home the last 600 in a shade under 33 seconds and leaving them gasping. She has been set for the race for some time now. She is rock hard fit, she peaks for this race as Kav has stated all along and barring severe interference, the race is at her mercy.

 

Fiorente  a clear second pick although he could have an awful lot of ground to make up. IAD to run well but he could easily be too far back in running and there is always somewhat of a cloud when  a horse has had an injury and missed a key lead up to his or her grand final. Much better suited on a big open track as well if you ask me.

 

Will post my market later in the week.

[chelseacol 2,488]

Hard to argue with the 3 top selections as per Twizzler's post.

 

I personally am hoping for IAD.  I do feel he has the edge over AJ the further they go. I don't buy into Kavanagh's explanation after the defeat that she was beaten by a fitter horse etc. I just think he is better than her once they get to a distance. Toss in the possibility of an off track and she is too short.

 

BUT - the hoof setback and MV are queries for IAD , so I haven't put the house on him - I might have otherwise at anything near $5.

 

I do wonder if Sacred Falls is a blow out chance - he has shown he is up to them when right. Seems he has improved and the $41 available yesterday felt like overs.

 

Shaping up to be a beauty.

[lecithin 429]

Given the majority of rain is forecast to fall today (Tuesday), I doubt it will play a factor 10-20ml forecast and then a chance of showers Wednesday and Thursday. The track will be no worse than dead and Atlantic Jewel will take her place in the race.

 

Now last time as the bookie, I took a big hit laying IAD, and you ended up with a theoretical 100k in your pocket, but like any bookie, I have taken it on the chin and will front up again and offer you 7-1 about the horse. Now if I'm willing to write a bet to lose 800k, would you be all in on the horse once again?

 

I unfortunately allowed myself to be a little overconfident in the Underwood and was ignorant of a couple of things against her, namely the track conditions and the belief that she would lead completely uncontested and hence sprint too well, despite my strong belief she is a far better horse ridden cold.

 

I have to say, on paper, the race is devoid of any real pace. Those saying it will be a high pressure race with a sprint from the 800m mark, I have know idea if they've bothered to look at the likely field. The only horse with any proper tactical speed is this little known import Mull of Killough who I've noticed tends to settle on speed from watching a couple of his races. Other than that, perhaps Happy Trails or Long John might push forward depending on barriers but other than that they will all be looking to swoop late and be coming from a fair way back.

 

I have the mare running midfield off a moderate tempo and then dashing home the last 600 in a shade under 33 seconds and leaving them gasping. She has been set for the race for some time now. She is rock hard fit, she peaks for this race as Kav has stated all along and barring severe interference, the race is at her mercy.

 

Fiorente  a clear second pick although he could have an awful lot of ground to make up. IAD to run well but he could easily be too far back in running and there is always somewhat of a cloud when  a horse has had an injury and missed a key lead up to his or her grand final. Much better suited on a big open track as well if you ask me.

 

Will post my market later in the week.

 

I can't argue with a lot of what you say and that is certainly the 'popular' opinion.  However, IMO because this is such a 'popular' opinion it makes AJ terrible value and and I've been successful over many years punting looking for reasons why the popular opinion might not be correct and I think this is a perfect example.

 

Sure the weather forecast isn't terrible, but there is heavy rain forecast for today and may be showers later in the week and that could affect the track.  I'd also note that the forecast is for cold days so if there is some heavy rain the track might not dry out as quickly as it normally would.  Add to that that the Cox Plate will be the 18th race on the track in around 24 hours and I'm prepared to take the chance the track might not be perfect.

 

You're also correct that on paper there doesn't appear to be much speed, but as I've said before, surely other jockeys and trainers will realise if they go slow (or even average speed) for 1200m and sprint home, they are just running for second, so I'm again willing to take the punt that several jockeys will show some initiative.  Look what happened in the Underwood - no one picked IAD to be outside the leader and I certainly didn't, but I was prepared to bet that AJ wouldn't get a completely uncontested lead like most people thought would happen.

 

On betting, I think I ended up with a little more than a theoretical $100k in my pocket given you were offering 20/1 on IAD in the Underwood - so based on that, no I wouldn't be reinvesting, I'd be retiring on my $2M windfall    In reality what am I doing, I've layed AJ for 10 units at 2/1 and had 2.5 units on IAD @ 7/1 and 2.5 units on Fiorente at 6/1.  I don't normally like backing and laying different horses in the same race, but happy to make an exception here....

 

I look forward to seeing your market later in the week

[Todamax101 533]

Sacred Falls to go to the Crystal Mile instead

[Ohokaman 5,854]

Final Field with barrier draws.

Will make it tough for Dundeel from there.

PDL and. Fiorente must be hardest for the Favourite to beat (Melham will ride if no Boss )

Speed to come from Long John and the Irish horse Mull of K I expect.

Kavanagh still saying AJ won't run if the rain comes, which would make it a different race.

http://www.racenet.com.au/news/94421/2013-Cox-Plate-–-The-final-field-and-barrier-draw

[Twizzler 7]

Racing is such a cruel game at times. 

 

A tragedy for Kav and connections that she won't be lining up on Saturday. 

 

Rips the heart out of the race. Anyone's for the taking now.

 

Gee this hurts.

[lecithin 429]

I didn't mention injuries in my earlier post (as clearly no one would ever wish such a thing on any horse let along AJ) but that's clearly another big factor in the favour of those of us who layed AJ in the pre-post markets.

[Idolmite 2,567]

Given the majority of rain is forecast to fall today (Tuesday), I doubt it will play a factor 10-20ml forecast and then a chance of showers Wednesday and Thursday. The track will be no worse than dead and Atlantic Jewel will take her place in the race.

 

Now last time as the bookie, I took a big hit laying IAD, and you ended up with a theoretical 100k in your pocket, but like any bookie, I have taken it on the chin and will front up again and offer you 7-1 about the horse. Now if I'm willing to write a bet to lose 800k, would you be all in on the horse once again?

 

7-1 on IAD? I'll take it !!!!!!!!

[Peter Jenkins 2,120]

7-1 on IAD? I'll take it !!!!!!!!

Now Idolmite if you had backed him at 7/1 straight after your post you'd have a smile a mile wide now !

[Baz (NZ) 1,722]

(NZ)

[Centrofold 147]

Green Moon is over the odds.  Can he do 'a Makybe Diva' and be one of the few horses that has won the Melbourne Cup and Cox Plate. 

[Centrofold 147]

Why is PUISSANCE DE LUNE tba.  Is the main aim the Melbourne Cup?

[Todamax101 533]

Why is PUISSANCE DE LUNE tba.  Is the main aim the Melbourne Cup?

 

Is that referring to horse or rider? Bossy was suspended for his ride in the Caulfield Cup and has an appeal this afternoon. If he doesn't have the suspension shortened he'll miss the ride in the Cox Plate. 

[Centrofold 147]

Of course, sorry! Yes Jockey. 

[Todamax101 533]

Given how a lot of the big guns are drawn wider, it probably leaves the race open to a sit and sprint. With a light weight and an inside draw maybe Shamus Award could try to pinch a break down the side?