Too much Northern Dancer??

[Mattski 176]

I fully appreciate Northern D has been prob the greatest influence on the thoroughbred in my life time. My Q is......you see yearlings now with 4-5 strains of ND in their pedigrees within 4-5 generations (like the attached). Is this too much inbreeding?? Are there examples of elite/G1 horses with that much ND??

Many thanks, Matt

 

 

[Breeder 609]

Good question, but if you go back 40-50 years we saw the same thing occurring with Hyperion.

Is there too much ? ---I think it probably needs to be balanced against what else is in the pedigree. I'm not saying it is a good or a bad thing.

Just quickly, if you look at Snitzel there are 4 lines of ND in the first 5 generations. 

Many of Galileo's best progeny were from mares by Danehill or Storm Bird ( or the mares were from mares by these two --the grand dams of the good progeny). That cross gives a straight ND cross but there is bound to be be more ND in behind with some of them.

[Mattski 176]

Thanks very much Breeder.  Given that lots of the dams of the top Snitzel's will have at least 1-2 strains of ND (hence 5-6 lines all-up) I imagine you're right - it depends on the balance of the rest of the pedigree.

Cheers, Matt

[Palatable 40]

My opinion is a yes, we have too much Northern Dancer now. And there's undoubtedly no stallion with such universal dominance of the breed since the Byerley Turk had the English broodmares to himself for a generation. Nearco, Phalaris, Hyperion never had the broad reach that Northern Dancer has now. Some of that is due to the advent of easy world travel, the tyranny of distance meant colonial bloodlines could run a bit more independently. But most of it is down to ND's extraordinary inbreeding success.

Stallions with 4x4 ND have been outstanding, but they're running low now. Sadlers Wells and Danzig being such late progeny of Northern Dancer has meant the UK still has some close up ND stallions like Frankel but in NZ Northern Dancer is starting to slip into the 6th line of many pedigrees. So in the UK it seemed like nothing has changed and ND-dominant runners had another great Ascot this year.

I reckon the rest of the world has moved on. In America Mr Prospector has continued to be a big presence - Dubawi has a lot of MP and was the stallion of the Breeders Cup this year.

Japan is rolling in Turn-To glory like we have with our Sir Tristram/Zabeel/Savabeel line.

In Australasia the stallions punching above their weight have some strong alternative lines. Last year's champion in Oz Written Tycoon carries little ND and classic Star Kingdom and My Babu lines. Snitzel does have a lot of ND, but is offset by strong alternative Biscay, Silly Season and In Reality lines. I Am Invincible is a full outcross. Over here Per Incanto has come up out of the ground with little ND and even an ancient Byerley Turk line to his damsire Indian Ridge.

I think we're seeing the breed buck back, and NZ studs may be better to look to Japan for its shuttlers and imports more than the old country.

[Breeder 609]

Interesting points Palatable, but I'd disagree with this sentence " Nearco, Phalaris, Hyperion never had the broad reach that Northern Dancer has now. Some of that is due to the advent of easy world travel, the tyranny of distance meant colonial bloodlines could run a bit more independently."    

  I have an old 1982 Stallion register which I have just flicked through to refresh my memory. Firstly back then there were far more active stallions than today and also a lot more mares being bred. Most of the stallions in that register were from GB, IRE and France together with a growing number from the USA (they had become fashionable at about that time --Ruling, Taipan etc.). There were some NZ bred and a few Australian bred stallions but I think we would consider them second or third rank horses today. (A few exceptions like Imposing and Vice Regal0

So I think , Nearco, Phalaris and Hyperion had quite a good reach.

I think the difference today is the smaller numbers of both stallions and mares helps show up this concentration of ND lines, together with the very much larger books the stallions have these days. Also shuttling stallions has changed things considerably. If there was a Irish or GB stallion with a number of lines of ND in the last 10-20 years he can cover a big book at home and then come down to the SH and cover another big book. So in a year or two he could cover more mares, than even very good stallions, would cover in a life time 40-50 years ago.

Having said all that, I agree with your overall trends perspective.

 

 

 

[Berri 2,131]

I personally think the difference is a bit more simple than that. A stallion used to cover 40, then 75, then they broke the 100 barrier of mares in a season. Then greedy Coolmore got involved, who you could say were quite instrumental in the Northern Dancer embrace. Stallions were covering 150 mares in what seemed like an overnight transition of policy. Then shuttling came to town. I know...started by Bunker Hunt and Tim Rogers, but the greed machine kicked in where Coolmore stallions were covering 150+ mares in both hemispheres. Reinforcing didn't help. So in a very short time, the best mares were going to Northern Dancer line stallions who were covering the most mares in both hemispheres. You don't have to be Einstein to work out what the results were going be be/ are going to be. 

The problem is the genetic flaws, and there are many, due to the cross pollination of the breed....wind conditions being the most pronounced. Soundness is another. There is no doubting that the genetic trends coupled with greed are influencing the potential of the breed (only three stallions and 40 broodmares as the base) and the likes of Hyperion and Bold Ruler almost being swallowed up without a whimper. 

Greed will kill this game if we're not careful 

[diomed 26]

In my data Northern Dancer produced 523 foals (prog1: 234 colts; 289 fillies); they produced 19,641 (prog2); and they produced 98,647 (prog 3). 

The 98,647 is the number of times Northern Dancer is in the 3rd  generation (not the number of foals) e.g. a horses with Northern Dancer 3x3 would take up 2 of the 98.647. 

What, to me, was more interesting, was the imbalance between the number of 3rd generation horses from Northern Dancer through sons and through daughters, a ratio of 14.2 to 1 (about 92,000 through sons to 6,000 through daughters).  The above numbers were run about a year ago. 

If you want balanced inbreeding to Northern Dancer through a son and daughter you have to search for the daughters.

Northern Dancer sons with 100+ progeny (in my data): Be My Guest; Danzatore; Danzig; Dixieland Band; El Gran Senor; Fabulous Dancer; Fairy King; Far North; Glenstal; Jugah; Lomond; Lyphard; Night Shift; Nijinsky; Nordico; Northern Baby; Northern Jove; Northern Taste; Northfields; Nureyev; rambo Dancer; Sadler's Wells; Salmon Leap; Secreto; Shareef Dancer; Sovereign Dancer; Storm Bird; Tate Gallery;  The Minstrel; Topsider; Try My Best; Unfuwain; Vice Regent.

Northern Dancer daughters with 100+ progeny in prog2 i.e. daughters who produced sires: [ Ballet De France (sire son Muhtarram) ];   [Dance Number (Rhythm) ];  [ Danseur Fabuleux (Arazi; Noverre) ]; [ Disconiz (Digamist; Discomatic) ];   [Falafel (Brief Truce) ];   [ Fanfreluche (D'Accord; Grand Luxe (f)-> Lode; L'Enjoleur; L'Extravagante (f)->Montelimar; La Voyageuse (f)->Society Lady (f)->Kheleyf;  Medaille D'Or ];   [Northern Sea (Southern Halo) ];   [Sleek Dancer (Northern Prospect) ];   [Wild Applause(Eastern Echo; Roar) ].

Northern Dancer daughters with < 100+ progeny in prog2 but 200+ in prog3 i.e their daughters or grand-daughters produced sires: Cold Trick; Cool Mood; Lisaleen; Rose Red;  Royal Statute; Savannah Dancer; Victoria Star

[Palatable 40]

Nice stats Diomed. Welcome to the forum.