RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.

Palatable

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  1. Agree with Dopey, bloodlines suggest Circus Maximus is mile & above, King of Comedy less so. I didn't like the mare matches on average for either of these stallions at Karaka. Breeder flags up Showcasing mares above for King of Comedy due to the commonalities, and the ND and MP overlaps look nice, and with heavy ND mixes I always tout that you need one line of an outcross for balance. The Warning granddam line on Showcasing achieves that and makes him a nice match. Too many of both the Circus Maximuses and King of Comedys at the sale didn't have that balance. Centaine in the dampage would look nice to me. Sprinting, robustness, to mould the ND and MP brilliance. Centaine was our second most successful non-Phalaris stallion in the pedigrees (to the 5th line) of our Group 1 winners last year, after Star Way. In terms of their relative presence in our broodmare band those two great Kiwi stallions aren't the most common. The biggest non-Phalaris stallions in the bloodlines of the comparable 2018 salestoppers at Karaka were from Round Table, Pieces of Eight and His Majesty lines. Yet Star Way was in seven of the 17 Group 1 pedigrees in NZ last year and Centaine was in six (Round Table had just one - Prise de Fer). Much of that is thanks to Proisir, but not exclusively (Mustang Valley has both, Imperatriz has Star Way). I may have some Kiwi bias slipping in with the above or at least fond memories of Star Way and Centaine, but if we think Proisir is getting good as a stallion, I can't wait to see how he goes as a broodmare sire.
  2. Great job on #412 Insider. I had her earmarked and thought that was one of the bargains of the sale at $100k. You may have to let us know if there is any slice of her left.
  3. Sales time is here again and here are my comments: * It'll be interesting to see if Karaka follows Magic Millions lead which was down slightly in their average sale price last week * Again it feels like we just don't have enough Group 1 winning broodmares in the mix. Does make me start to cheer for non-syndicate fillies at the races given they have the best chance of being retained in NZ. Was hard to find too many imported mares from the NH either. * Watch out for increased demand in two of New Zealand's less celebrated stallions. Both El Roca and Contributer deserve to be considered in our Top 5 now, and showed in the Ready to Run that they could command some dollars. * Better bargains should be available on the Almanzors with 64 of them catalogued. Satono Aladdin and (arguably) War Decree got the better of him in the 2nd season sires last season, but he's started this year well. * I go through all the lots and rate the balance and class in the pedigrees. From my review the stallions with the strongest balance with mares came out as Vanbrugh, Embellish and Proisir. At the other end Staphanos, King of Comedy and Wrote. * Waikato Stud and Windsor Park have bumped up their catalogued volumes nicely this year. Westbury look like the only big stud to have gone in the opposite direction. Time for them to add a fresh new stallion. * Hard to find a likely salestopper. We do get 1 x I Am Invincible this year and 3 x Snitzels, plus 10 x Wootten Bassetts and 3 x Too Darn Hots. My favourite from an Aussie stallion though would be the #547 Lonhro - Abidewithme.... plenty of Proisirs worthy of attention first though...
  4. Great to see the Hong Kong visitors drive the Ready to Run sale to new heights at Karaka over the last two days. One gripe from me was the proportion of geldings to colts. In prior years you'd see one gelding to every two colts at the Ready to Run, but this year the geldings had greater numbers. The colts sold on average for almost twice as much which you'd expect. I don't follow what reason could be behind the push to geld. Hong Kong is peculiar and likes its geldings over colts in their isolated jurisdiction, but that's a fairly limited explanation for such a big increase this year. If you believe in your product being world class, then the increase in gelds isn't justified. Are Kiwi breeders too negative at the moment?
  5. The rise of Proisir and Rich Hill Stud is complete and what deserving stallion title winners they are today, not to mention Satono Aladdin making his own impressive early mark, and Shocking and Vadamos providing group winners. I wouldn't mind betting Ace High joins the party next year. Rich Hill Stud is on some run. They seem to be getting their stallion matches spot on. Can't wait for another announcement from them. And it's two years since I posted below saying I couldn't see how Proisir could step up from humble beginnings in an NZ market driven by breeding to sell... very happy to eat those words. https://www.racecafe.co.nz/forums/index.php?/topic/88690-written-tycoon/&do=findComment&comment=643220
  6. ... and now an Irish Derby for Auguste Rodin. A wake up call for the British & Irish perhaps? Paging through the pedigrees of the rest of the Irish Derby contenders they are all so uniform. Auguste Rodin carries alternative lines on both Deep Impact's dam line through Busted and on his dam line through Indian Ridge. A good recipe to become a good stallion himself.
  7. Nice transition from Darci Brahma, a Danehill over a Zabeel, to The Chosen One, a Zabeel-line over a Danehill-line. They'll be hoping The Chosen One can follow in Darci's footsteps. Big shoes to fill. Darci Brahma has "retired" a bit quietly but surely fits in the Top 5 NZ stallions of the '10s. I'm not sure we ever saw his true stallion value represented at Karaka, year-in year-out he always looked the bargain Karaka stallion.
  8. That list never fails to take me by surprise every year. Point in case Tarzino (top of the list 197 covers) vs Belardo (a mere 13). Tarzino has had Gypsy Goddess and Jungle Magnate take G1s, Belardo has had Gold Phoenix in the States. Winners/Runners: Tarzino 40.2%; Belardo 50.6% Stakes Wnrs / Runners: Tarzino 11.4% ; Belardo 10.2% Belardo is a bit older so Tarzino needs to be allowed to have his 4yo olds out, but otherwise not much to separate them at face value. Why is one fashionable and not the other?
  9. Plus Alamosa probably up there among the candidates for most underrated/forgotten current NZ stallion.
  10. Yeah nice early coup by Windsor Park to land one of the bigger name three year olds in Oz. And nice to see them bringing in a Deep Impact. Was feeling jealous at how Maurice and Mikki Isle had started in Oz so nice to see we have more coming in. Bit surprised they didn't race him for longer. No stats to hand but I would've thought Deep Impact stallion progeny will be better at 4 than 3. Expectations high for Satono Aladdin next year.
  11. I can't think of too many NZ examples off the top of my head DMG. But Encosta de Lago has flanked his own sires champion status by becoming arguably Australasia's best broodmare sire now. So it'd make sense to have him on both sides. From memory he has Star Way on his damside so you'd be keeping a nice dollop of outcross going with a 3x3. Should nick well back into the Redoute's Choice lines.
  12. I hadn't followed this result, what great news. Per Incanto has earned a son at stud. Let's hope Little Brose stays fit.
  13. I'm not convinced there's as much difference between Book 1 and Book 2 as commenters here are making out. More likely is that NZB have worked out a three-day window is ideal for international visitors and Book 1 captures that demand with some focused marketing. In a year where International buyers came to the fore and the local buyer market stagnated a greater wedge between Book 1 and Book 2 was foreseeable. There were some beautiful pedigrees in Book 2. The only difference on a page I noticed was the racing quality of the broodmare. An important trait admittedly but not one to justify such a big gulf between the books. On type, undoubtedly Book 2 will have some entries with strong pedigrees with a few type quirks to put off the international high flyer, but I was talking to NZB assessor Kane (Jones I think?) at Karaka and vendors and NZB alike have no hesitation in using the withdrawal process to deal with anything remotely concerning. And those withdrawals now have the chance to eventually show up on Gavelhouse when ready. If you offered me 1 x Book 1 or 5 x Book 2s I'd take the Book 2s.
  14. The Trelawney one certainly did well at $750k!
  15. Yeah a reasonably good start today for Karaka. I however am ditching my punditry on purchase prices after the Written Tycoon - Dolmabache went depressingly low at $170k...