A Month Out....Too Early for Cambridge knocking?

[4bettor-orworse 21]

Perhaps, its down to the fact there is still just under a month to go.

Maybe the community is just tired of the discussion.

It could be people have just 'wisened' up.

 

We are yet to see the biannual  'Cambridge not suitable for Jewels because of draw bias' discussion emerge in here.

To be honest, it amazed me that the discussion received so much mile-age (excuse the pun).

 

If the jewels are becoming stale, its not the track at fault. Neither is it the distance. 

 

Its because the entire card consists of age-group racing.  Age-group racing is very hierarchical and by this late stage in the season, the hierarchy is usually pretty clear.

If one horse is head and shoulders above its 'rivals', draw generally won't matter.  If the hierarchy is more compressed (evenness amongst the group) then obviously, draw does play a part.

 

To this end, Cambridge is not fundamentally different to other tracks. Predictability is whats making the Jewels stale. Only the 2yo trotters and some fillies races contain an element of surprise.

Look at the record for the 4yo emerald division:

2007 favourite

2008 2nd fav

2009 fav

2010 fav

2011 4th fav (an "outsider")

2012 fav

2013 fav

2014 fav

2015 fav

 

 

 

 

[Guest]

56 minutes ago, 4bettor-orworse said:

Perhaps, its down to the fact there is still just under a month to go.

Maybe the community is just tired of the discussion.

It could be people have just 'wisened' up.

 

We are yet to see the biannual  'Cambridge not suitable for Jewels because of draw bias' discussion emerge in here.

To be honest, it amazed me that the discussion received so much mile-age (excuse the pun).

 

If the jewels are becoming stale, its not the track at fault. Neither is it the distance. 

 

Its because the entire card consists of age-group racing.  Age-group racing is very hierarchical and by this late stage in the season, the hierarchy is usually pretty clear.

If one horse is head and shoulders above its 'rivals', draw generally won't matter.  If the hierarchy is more compressed (evenness amongst the group) then obviously, draw does play a part.

 

To this end, Cambridge is not fundamentally different to other tracks. Predictability is whats making the Jewels stale. Only the 2yo trotters and some fillies races contain an element of surprise.

Look at the record for the 4yo emerald division:

2007 favourite

2008 2nd fav

2009 fav

2010 fav

2011 4th fav (an "outsider")

2012 fav

2013 fav

2014 fav

2015 fav

 

 

 

 

The Jewels at Cambridge racing over a mile is a bit average really.

Why do,they insist on mile racing.

Personally I don't believe it is financially successful and probably detrimental to,the South Island horses especially the young ones to travel up there and have one race so late in the season, especially if you draw poorly.

Mile racing to most punters I know is not a lot of interest to them, and as a punting vehicle most don't bother.

When maidens get to race against horses who have won races then it is a bit of a farce really and hard to get too excited, but different strokes as they.

 

[Thejanitor 1,237]

8 hours ago, 4bettor-orworse said:

To this end, Cambridge is not fundamentally different to other tracks. Predictability is whats making the Jewels stale. Only the 2yo trotters and some fillies races contain an element of surprise.

 

Yes, most races look predictable this year. The 4yo Diamond for pacing mares is the exception and could provide value for punters, the withdrawal of hotshots The Orange Agent and Fight For Glory, has left an evenly matched group.

[Toblerone 242]

1 hour ago, Thejanitor said:

Yes, most races look predictable this year. The 4yo Diamond for pacing mares is the exception and could provide value for punters, the withdrawal of hotshots The Orange Agent and Fight For Glory, has left an evenly matched group.

On the contrary, it looks to be the most one-sided race of the day.

A last-start third in a 1.47.5 Miracle Mile is pretty good form I would suggest, and bookies agree opening her at $1.40.
Will start $1.20 on the day if she draws the front line.

[Thejanitor 1,237]

1 hour ago, Toblerone said:

On the contrary, it looks to be the most one-sided race of the day.

A last-start third in a 1.47.5 Miracle Mile is pretty good form I would suggest, and bookies agree opening her at $1.40.
Will start $1.20 on the day if she draws the front line.

Oops... yes, you are right, my mistake. I was referring to the NZ horses left in the heat and had forgotten about the Aussie mare, she will be short and should win.

[tim vince 985]

there was a lot of talk around last night you would want the track to be a lot better if it rained on the day than it was last night. I have faith in Cambridge to do the job good secretary good committee - lets hope for a great day

[Guest]

2 hours ago, kakama said:

Average track for mine. I do not like betting at a track where there is a huge advantage for the horses well drawn.

I think Ashburton, Cambridge has done its dash now. The novelty has gone. 

Maybe they should look at running the day meeting on a sat at addington? Why not?

Couldn't run the races over the mile thou as the starting point for a mile is a shocker.

Why not run them at Addington if people like the jewels idea, but run over 1950 metres and therefore gives more a chance, and racing on the best track in NZ including Ashvegas.

[eljay 1,720]

Same old same old!

[tim vince 985]

mile racing anywhere  in  with big fields means a lot of horses are out of the race  from barrier rise.i think  the concept has been great  but might be a good idea to  maybe consider small changes- I think addington and Auckland have enough good races- its like taking warriors to new Plymouth - it gets huge support.

 

trouble in the north if we want all weather tracks  we  only have Auckland Cambridge and palmerston. it might grow the sport if we went to palmerston and have 2000 metres  or limit the fields to 8 and try a mile.  but as I say Cambridge try their guts out against the odds- cruel to take it from them

[Guest]

1 hour ago, kakama said:

That's just my point, why not race over the mile at Addington. Tricky start, but it would be exciting racing

Kakama, you have to be kidding aren't you?

You clearly have never been to Addington Raceway and watched mile racing.

It would rank as the worst starting point for any distance in the world bar none.

How the heck would mile racing at Addington be exciting when the ones drawn close in have so much of an advantage.

Why don't they start  the races at Alexandra Park over a mile rather than 1700metres?

Because it would be close to the bend!!!

 

[gazza123 51]

great atmosphere at Cambridge,part of that is having horses in front of the  crowd pre start,could still do that and race 2200m,the mobile doesn,t have to go full tit for a round..keep Cambridge an race 2200m ..or have two jewels days one in each island split by sex and cater thru every age qroup to 8+,would need stakes reduction but would be great to see older superstars going head to head

[THE BRUCEINATOR #1 2]

On 5/5/2016 at 11:02 PM, 4bettor-orworse said:

Perhaps, its down to the fact there is still just under a month to go.

Maybe the community is just tired of the discussion.

It could be people have just 'wisened' up.

 

We are yet to see the biannual  'Cambridge not suitable for Jewels because of draw bias' discussion emerge in here.

To be honest, it amazed me that the discussion received so much mile-age (excuse the pun).

 

If the jewels are becoming stale, its not the track at fault. Neither is it the distance. 

 

Its because the entire card consists of age-group racing.  Age-group racing is very hierarchical and by this late stage in the season, the hierarchy is usually pretty clear.

If one horse is head and shoulders above its 'rivals', draw generally won't matter.  If the hierarchy is more compressed (evenness amongst the group) then obviously, draw does play a part.

 

To this end, Cambridge is not fundamentally different to other tracks. Predictability is whats making the Jewels stale. Only the 2yo trotters and some fillies races contain an element of surprise.

Look at the record for the 4yo emerald division:

2007 favourite

2008 2nd fav

2009 fav

2010 fav

2011 4th fav (an "outsider")

2012 fav

2013 fav

2014 fav

2015 fav

 

 

 

 

I disagree 'AGE GROUP RACING  IS A GREAT CONCEPT " look at the Hampo in the U.S.A. the meadow lands pace , the breeders crown , e.t.c 

[eljay 1,720]

Many years ago, age group racing at the 'grass roots" level was very popular with the clubs, especially the bigger clubs.    Sadly today, this concept has been scrubbed in favour of filling fields.    Same can also be said for Juniors races.