RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
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By scooby3051 · Posted
Just ask Leggy it should be a walk in the park as barriers don't matter....LOL -
That's a fair and constructive critical question Pak Star. The answer is no. It's a primarily time and ability based assessment of chance which includes a number of other factors such as readiness and race and track condition suitability but NOT barrier draw. Similar to what Daniel O'Sullivan uses above in his assessment of Mr. Brightside but not the same.
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Gets 6kg back on Cylinder. Not sure what beats her if shes healthy - perhaps the barrier
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Out of interest, what was the factor that determined its relative chance to win? If its the tote price, then one could argue that the tote and betting public have already factored in its barrier, thus the best horse in the field who may otherwise be the favourite, suddenly draws barrier 16 and becomes the 5th favourite, and subsequently finishes 5th, then the data may appear that the barrier had no effect on the result because the 5th best horse according to the tote ended up finishing 5th as it "should". Whereas in reality it was probably the best horse in the field finishing 5th but tripped up by the barrier daw.
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Rue de Royale currently 100/1. You saw it here first 😁
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Rue de Royale it is then Pete….. Then again….. Here is a quick look at the historical and barrier facts since the race was first run in 1957. The most successful barrier with nine wins – barrier 1 – Shinzo (No. 7) The least successful barrier with no wins – barrier 13 – Arkansaw Kid (No. 3) Last year‘s winning barrier – (barrier 1 – Fireburn) – Shinzo (No. 7) The longest losing sequence for a previous winning barrier – (barrier 9 – Sweet Embrace in 1967) – Exploring (No. 13) The first horse drawn in the 2023 Golden Slipper barrier draw – Little Brose (No. 1) barrier 5 The last horse drawn in the 2023 Golden Slipper barrier draw – King’s Gambit (No. 😎 barrier 7 Barriers 11, 12, 14 and 16 have produced six of the last 10 Golden Slipper winners – barrier 11 – Platinum Jubilee (No. 11), barrier 12 – Blanc De Blanc (No. 12), barrier 14 – Facile (No. 16), barrier 16 – Red Resistance (No. 6)
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OK so here's the barrier stats from 2014 onwards. I'll be backing barrier 14 I think. Year Horse Barrier Weight 2023 Shinzo 1 56.5kg 2022 Fireburn 1 54.5kg 2021 Stay Inside 3 56.5kg 2020 Farnan 12 56.5kg 2019 Kiamichi 14 54.5kg 2018 Estijaab 14 54.5kg 2017 She Will Reign 11 54.5kg 2016 Capitalist 2 56.5kg 2015 Vancouver 16 56.5kg 2014 Mossfun 11 54.5kg
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WILLIAM REID STAKES FINAL FIELD 1 – THE ASTROLOGIST – Leon & Troy Corstens – Declan Bates – 9 – 58.5kg 2 – THE INFERNO – Cliff Brown – Jake Noonan – 8 – 58.5kg 3 – QUEMAN – Shane & Cassie Oxlade – Harry Coffey – 4 – 58.5kg 4 – JOHNNY ROCKER – Nick Ryan – Rhys McLeod – 11 – 58.5kg 5 – IMPERATRIZ – Mark Walker – Opie Bosson – 10 – 56.5kg 6 – BELLA NIPOTINA – Ciaron Maher – John Allen – 3 – 56.5kg 7 – I AM ME – Ciaron Maher – Ben Melham – 2 – 56.5kg 8 – QUEEN OF THE BALL – Michael Freedman – 7 – 56.5kg 9 – HYPOTHETICAL – Anthony & Sam Freedman – Michael Dee – 6 – 56.5kg 10 – CYLINDER – James Cummings – TBD – 1 – 56kg 11 – KING'S GAMBIT – Peter & Paul Snowden – TBD – 5 – 56kg
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Can any barrier draw afficionados explain to me why four horses have won the Slipper from barrier 14 and only 2 from barrier 2. And why five winners have come from barrier 10? I'll be interested in the explanations. Update: these figures are only up to 2013.
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The barrier draw will be held at 11am. No – Horse – Trainer – Jockey – Barrier – Weight 1 – STORM BOY – Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott – Ryan Moore – 2 – 56.5kg 2 – FULLY LIT – Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott – Sam Clipperton – 1 – 56.5kg 3 – SHANGRI LA EXPRESS – Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott – Regan Bayliss – 3 – 56.5kg 4 – RUE DE ROYALE – Tony & Calvin McEvoy – Chad Schofield – 14 – 56.5kg 5 – TRAFFIC WARDEN – James Cummings – Craig Williams – 6 – 56.5kg 6 – STRAIGHT CHARGE – Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott – Tim Clark – 9 – 56.5kg 7 – SWITZERLAND – Chris Waller – James McDonald – 7 – 56.5kg 8 – BODYGUARD – Peter & Paul Snowden – Mark Zahra – 10 – 56.5kg 9 – DUBLIN DOWN – Tony & Calvin McEvoy – Hugh Bowman – 13 – 56.5kg 10 – COLEMAN – Matt Laurie – Kerrin McEvoy – 4 – 56.5kg 11 – HOLMES A COURT – Peter & Paul Snowden – Tom Marquand – 8 – 56.5kg 12 – PROST – Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott – Adam Hyeronimus – 11 – 56.5kg 13 – HAYASUGI – Clinton McDonald – Jamie Kah – 16 – 54.5kg 14 – LADY OF CAMELOT – Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott – Blake Shinn – 5 – 54.5kg 15 – MANAAL – Michael Freedman – Jason Collett – 17 – 54.5kg 16 – ENEEZA – Peter G Moody & Katherine Coleman – Damian Lane – 15 – 54.5kg 17 EMG – ESPIONAGE – Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott – Tommy Berry – 12 – 56.5kg **** POST-BARRIER DRAW BETTING (TAB.com.au) $2.10 – Storm Boy $4.50 – Switzerland $11 – Straight Charge, Lady Of Camelot $15 – Espionage $17 – Hayasugi $21 – Fully Lit, Shangri La Express $34 – Bodyguard, Coleman, Manaal $51 – Traffic Warden, Holmes A Court, Prost $71 – Dublin Down, Eneeza $201 – Rue De Royale
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Probably. The simple fact is Jenni ran to a rating Brightside never has, that’s why she won. The Australian Cup over further might be a different story. Ladbrokes Pre nom betting…. Australian Cup 2000m (Pre-Noms) March 30, 2024 Mr Brightside $3.30 $1.58 Pride Of Jenni $6.00 $2.25 Gold Trip $7.00 $2.50 Atishu $9.00 $3.00 Riff Rocket $9.00 $3.00 Legarto $9.00 $3.00 Cascadian $9.00 $3.00 Young Werther $13 $4.00 Campionessa $15 $4.50 Buckaroo $15 $4.50 Vow And Declare $15 $4.50 Ashrun $21 $6.00 Foxy Cleopatra $21 $6.00 Yonce $26 $7.25 Valiant King $26 $7.25 Victoria Road $26 $7.25 Unspoken $26 $7.25 Detonator Jack $26 $7.25 Pericles $26 $7.25 Apulia $26 $7.25 Sheraz $31 $8.50 Makram $31 $8.50 Carini $51 $14 Hoo Ya Mal $51 $14 Huetor $51 $14 Future History $51 $14 Mostly Cloudy $51 $14 Nonconformist $51 $14 Selino $51 $14
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1 – STORM BOY – Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott – Ryan Moore – 2 – 56.5kg 2 – FULLY LIT – Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott – Sam Clipperton – 1 – 56.5kg 3 – SHANGRI LA EXPRESS – Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott – Regan Bayliss – 3 – 56.5kg 4 – RUE DE ROYALE – Tony & Calvin McEvoy – Chad Schofield – 14 – 56.5kg 5 – TRAFFIC WARDEN – James Cummings – Craig Williams – 6 – 56.5kg 6 – STRAIGHT CHARGE – Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott – Tim Clark – 9 – 56.5kg 7 – SWITZERLAND – Chris Waller – James McDonald – 7 – 56.5kg 8 – BODYGUARD – Peter & Paul Snowden – Mark Zahra – 10 – 56.5kg 9 – DUBLIN DOWN – Tony & Calvin McEvoy – Hugh Bowman – 13 – 56.5kg 10 – COLEMAN – Matt Laurie – Kerrin McEvoy – 4 – 56.5kg 11 – HOLMES A COURT – Peter & Paul Snowden – Tom Marquand – 8 – 56.5kg 12 – PROST – Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott – Adam Hyeronimus – 11 – 56.5kg 13 – HAYASUGI – Clinton McDonald – Jamie Kah – 16 – 54.5kg 14 – LADY OF CAMELOT – Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott – Blake Shinn – 5 – 54.5kg 15 – MANAAL – Michael Freedman – Jason Collett – 17 – 54.5kg 16 – ENEEZA – Peter G Moody & Katherine Coleman – Damian Lane – 15 – 54.5kg 17 EMG – ESPIONAGE – Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott – Tommy Berry – 12 – 56.5kg
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.1 STORM BOY 56.5 Ryan Moore G Waterhouse & A Bott 2. FULLY LIT 56.5 Sam Clipperton G Waterhouse & A Bott 3. SHANGRI LA EXPRESS 56.5 Regan Bayliss G Waterhouse & A Bott 4. RUE DE ROYALE (NZ) 56.5 Chad Schofield T & C McEvoy 5. TRAFFIC WARDEN 56.5 Craig Williams James Cummings 6. STRAIGHT CHARGE 56.5 Tim Clark G Waterhouse & A Bott 7. SWITZERLAND 56.5 James McDonald Chris Waller 8. BODYGUARD 56.5 Mark Zahra P & P Snowden 9. DUBLIN DOWN 56.5 Hugh Bowman T & C McEvoy 10. COLEMAN 56.5 Kerrin McEvoy Matt Laurie 11. HOLMES A COURT 56.5 Tom Marquand P & P Snowden 12. PROST 56.5 Adam Hyeronimus G Waterhouse & A Bott 13. HAYASUGI 54.5 16 Jamie Kah Clinton McDonald 14. LADY OF CAMELOT 54.5 Blake Shinn G Waterhouse & A Bott 15. MANAAL 54.5 Jason Collett Michael Freedman 16. ENEEZA 54.5 Damian Lane P Moody & K Coleman 17.e ESPIONAGE Tommy Berry G Waterhouse & A Bott
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According to one of the women players in the White Ferns they have been training their butts off, So with game 1 starting today against England be interesting to see if it will be fruitful, let's see.
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And JMac was very sympathetic of the ride. Along with D Oliver and Zahra. They would have some sort of idea n0
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