Swynford 121 Report post Posted May 3, 2015 For you Berri, I have selected these 15 from the Premier Sale using pedigree analysis and I'm happy to follow them and compare them against The 15 top priced lots from the sale The leading vendor's 15 top priced lots The leading Buyers 15 top priced lots Lot 14 C All American / Klairevoyant passed $50,000 Lot 83 F Redoute's Choice / Mygoodgrace $340,000 Lot 93 F Stravinsky / Obey passed $100,000 Lot 106 C Fastnet Rock / Pampurr $200,000 Lot 125 F Stravinsky -Pride of Tralee $180,000 Lot 143 C Iffraaj - Riesling $70,000 Lot 156 C Authorized - Sandie $170,000 Lot 167 C Jimmy Choux -Seven Schillings $150,000 Lot 200 F Commands - Valpolicella $325,000 Lot 227 C Redoute's Choice - Volkrose $180,000 Lot 234 C Northern Meteor - Wit Beyond Measure $260,000 Lot 323 C Snitzel - Copita $200,000 Lot 327 F Rip Van Winkle - Cramoisy $50,000 Lot 372 C Fastnet Rock - Episode $350,000 Lot 391 F Makfi - Fleece $120,000 The Rip Van Winkle filly is the only one I have seen in the flesh. Total out lay $2,745 Million average $183,000 per Yearling Top 15 top priced lots $6,865 Million average $475,000 per Yearling Breeder and Ashoka 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
trakdap 390 Report post Posted May 3, 2015 If I had nearly 3mil to spend on horses, I would not buy 15. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashoka 1,179 Report post Posted May 3, 2015 trakdap... Swynford has put his methods "on the line". Why don't you "spend" three million and put your choices up against his? This also applies to all those who have expressed opinions on Swynford's breeding ideas and methodology. I realise that a one-off occasion will not provide material evidence for any scientific conclusions...but it will be interesting and give us all a good deal of entertainment and enjoyment. All the best. Ashoka MPERKINS, Breeder and Swynford 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
trakdap 390 Report post Posted May 4, 2015 Ashoka, I have put my butt on the line and have chosen 3 for a stakes winner so far and other 2 trial winners, so I don't think I have done too bad so far with only 3 choices. Why the hell would I need an xtra 12. They would only be costing me and not all of them would even get to the races. Go Figure Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
trakdap 390 Report post Posted May 4, 2015 Reality Check. Not only do you have 15 horses at a cost of 2.7mil. You will have the agistment (I would hope you would have your own property) Then the breaking in . average 2k per month per horse = 30k. Training fees 3K per month per horse, now I know all 15 would not be in work at the same time. Then half or more would be culls/write offs, you paid 180k per av. It could be done cheaper, but you get what you pay for. You get my drift Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Breeder 609 Report post Posted May 4, 2015 trakdap As Ashoka said, Swynford is responding as he said he would to a specific challenge from Berri --ie. separate to that one which you and I have responded to in the "2nd challenge" I say well done to Swynford --it has taken quite a bit of work to put all the Premier yearlings into his program and assess the top 15. Lets just sit back and see how it goes. It will take a while but could be fun. Swynford 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
trakdap 390 Report post Posted May 4, 2015 Fun it could be, But it is not in reality. This is a cyber game no more no less. More like a TV reality Show. I do not think this is what Berri was implying when he started all this. I am a realist and this is a joke. But good luck. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashoka 1,179 Report post Posted May 4, 2015 trackdap... The emphasis here is on picking successful racehorses through the use of breeding theories, strategy and intuition. This is not a reality contest. The reason I suggested that you spend around three million was to put your selections up against Swynford's based on roughly the same expenditure. I apologise if you have taken offence at any of my comments. Most assuredly, none was intended. As I have said, this is not a scientific experiment...it is hubristic and, given that it involves thoroughbred horses, the gods will determine who smiles and who cries...while the rest of us will keep our "told you so's" private...yeah, right... :) All the best. Ashoka Insider and Swynford 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nasrullah 180 Report post Posted May 4, 2015 I agree with Breeder, Swynford is responding to Berri. It is a bit of fun. Berri was asking Swynford to prove his theories and Swynford has given his 'sample' However certain challenges need to be simple to follow and check and not wait 3 years for the result to come in ( or longer!!). I still believe my first and second season champion sires challenge is easier to monitor and provides quicker a result to compare. Only flaw is that the first season sire numbers can be distorted with a Karaka Million winner plus is you combine Australia results the money over the ditch it makes the NZ winnings look pretty small. But I believe Australian results should be included in my challenge to be fair. I think the key is like breeding there is a risk to an unproven stallion but clearly there can be upside or downside. As a breeding discussion it is interesting on what bloggers on this site thought about a stallion before any progeny of a particular stallion were born and likewise before any progeny came out and produced stakes winning results or below average stakes winning results. This season gone has seen certain stallions whose progeny are ending there 2yo and 3 yo season look like they are and will be a success (Per Incanto and Tavistock), and other look like they are failures or will be below average (no need to name any of them as stats are on Arion Pedigrees). There are many unproven stallions in New Zealand stallion ranks that will prove themselves over the next few years. The breeding skill is choosing them.! trakdap 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
trakdap 390 Report post Posted May 4, 2015 Not a reality Show. Yeah Right, a real tuis. Seeing you want to play you have a go , I have and dont need to pick 15 or so to get what I require. Of course swynford would like what you write, it is what he sells. Get real, do any of you own a racehorse and actually pay the bills? Trying to sell snake oil is a pretty easy sell to some. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swynford 121 Report post Posted May 4, 2015 Trakdap.....Yes I do own a race Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swynford 121 Report post Posted March 15, 2016 On 5/3/2015 at 2:32 PM, Breeder said: As Ashoka said, Swynford is responding as he said he would to a specific challenge from Berri --ie. separate to that one which you and I have responded to in the "2nd challenge" I say well done to Swynford --it has taken quite a bit of work to put all the Premier yearlings into his program and assess the top 15. Lets just sit back and see how it goes. It will take a while but could be fun. Just an update on my selections, 15 selected Only 8 named so far but all still 2 Year Olds here's an opportunity that I will never get again so sorry folks going to take it while I can, (I know it wont last ) only 1 raced and he is a winner Lot 167 by Jimmy Choux ex Seven Schillings named Heptagon 1 star 1 win and quite impressive. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swynford 121 Report post Posted March 15, 2016 ( This part was only for you Berri 100% strike rate so far) Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swynford 121 Report post Posted May 3, 2017 On 5/3/2015 at 3:14 PM, Swynford said: For you Berri, I have selected these 15 from the Premier Sale using pedigree analysis and I'm happy to follow them and compare them against The 15 top priced lots from the sale The leading vendor's 15 top priced lots The leading Buyers 15 top priced lots Lot 14 C All American / Klairevoyant passed $50,000 Lot 83 F Redoute's Choice / Mygoodgrace $340,000 Lot 93 F Stravinsky / Obey passed $100,000 Lot 106 C Fastnet Rock / Pampurr $200,000 Lot 125 F Stravinsky -Pride of Tralee $180,000 Lot 143 C Iffraaj - Riesling $70,000 Lot 156 C Authorized - Sandie $170,000 Lot 167 C Jimmy Choux -Seven Schillings $150,000 Lot 200 F Commands - Valpolicella $325,000 Lot 227 C Redoute's Choice - Volkrose $180,000 Lot 234 C Northern Meteor - Wit Beyond Measure $260,000 Lot 323 C Snitzel - Copita $200,000 Lot 327 F Rip Van Winkle - Cramoisy $50,000 Lot 372 C Fastnet Rock - Episode $350,000 Lot 391 F Makfi - Fleece $120,000 The Rip Van Winkle filly is the only one I have seen in the flesh. Total out lay $2,745 Million average $183,000 per Yearling Top 15 top priced lots $6,865 Million average $475,000 per Yearling It's been two years since the above post so a great time to see if any rocket ships amongst the selections. Lot name Starts Wins 2nd 3rd Prize money $NZ Lot 14 unnamed ...................................................................... Lot 83 MY GRACE 10 2 -- 1 -- 1 $42,054 Lot 93 ZABAY 9 0 - - 2 - 0 1,800 Lot 106 unnamed . ......................................................................... Lot 125 CRYSTAL FOUNTAIN 3 3 -- 0 - 0 73,041 Lot 143 PRINCE HAREM 4 2 - 2 - 0 22,700 LoT 156 NEWTON 3 1 -1 - 0 9,150 Lot 167 HEPTAGON 2 1 -- 0 -- 0 13,658 Lot 200 VINORULES 5 0 -- 2 -- 0 3750 Lot 227 unnamed ....................................................................... Lot 234 CLEESE 5 0 --0 -- 1 6640 Lot 323 unnamed 1 trial 1 win Lot 327 WINKLE DANCER 2 0- -0- -0 350 Lot 372 KLARIK 3 0- - 0- -0 890 Lot 381 SAVILE ROW 8 2- -3- -1 227,575 TOTAL $401,608 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Breeder 609 Report post Posted May 3, 2017 Swynford , have you records for the top 15 highest priced yearlings for a comparison / Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swynford 121 Report post Posted May 3, 2017 Yes I have and I will post these shortly. It is quite a lot of work but at the same time very interesting. Ruby and Breeder 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swynford 121 Report post Posted May 3, 2017 15 top priced lots Karaka Premier Yearling Sale 2015 Lot Price Sire Dam NAME Starts Wins 2nd 3rd Stakes $NZ Lot 429 800K Fastnet Rock -Il Quello Veloce IL PIU VELOCE . ............................................................. Lot 340 600K Fastnet Rock -Dance On By ROCK AND SWING 7 1 - 0 -1 56,442 Lot 251 500K High Chaparall - Alma Star NOT TO BE CAUGHT 8 0 - 3 - 0 29,600 Lot 37 470K More Than Ready - Lovetrista ATTENBOROUGH 5 1 - 0 - 0 21,000 Lot 36 450K Cape Blanco - Love Diamonds DIAMAINT ............................................................ Lot 436 425K Savabeel - Invernoray ................... ............................................................ Lot 287 420K So You Think-- Better Alternative ANGELUCCI 4 0 - 1- 0 3,563 Lot 47 400K O'Reilly - Make A Wish TWENTY ONE TIMES 4 1 - 1 -0 8,600 Lot 58 400K Snitzel - Mini Tales EPIC TALE 4 0 - 0 - 1 875 Lot 85 400K Fastnet Rock - Myrrh HEROIC VALOUR 10 4 - 3 - 2 300,650 Lot 216 400K Denman - Tsukioka REGENCY BO BO 9 2 - 5 - 2 429,517 Lot 429 400K Fastnet Rock - Allez France ROCKET GO ................................................................ Lot 367 400K Savabeel - Eloa REACH FOR HEAVEN 7 1 - 1 - 2 50,843 Lot 374 400K O'Reilly - Etoile Du Nord LIBRETTO .................................................................... Lot 435 More Than Ready -- Insouciant PARIS 2 0 - 1 - 0 3,241 Total $904,331 Breeder 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lloyd Vivian 742 Report post Posted May 4, 2017 Interesting indeed! Clearly, one requires large 'kahunas' and even bigger pockets to buy at the top end of the market...Success is definitely elusive - for both the pedigree buff and the industry experts !!!! "Great game, this racing game!!!!" Keith Haub. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swynford 121 Report post Posted May 4, 2017 15 of the top priced lots brought by leader buyer Premier Yearling Sale 2015 results as at 03/05/2017 Lot Price Sire Dam NAME Starts Wins 2nd 3rd Stakes NZ$ Lot 429 800K Fastnet Rock - Il Quello Veloce IL PIU VELOCE 0 ................... Lot 58 400K Snitzel - Mini Tales EPIC TALE 4 0 - 0 - 1 875 Lot 85 400K Fastnet Rock - Myrrh HEROIC VALOUR 10 4 - 3 - 2 300,650 Lot 95 220K Fastnet Rock - Ocean Pearl OCEAN ROCK 2 0 - 0 - 1 1,050 Lot 31 200K Savabeel - Lego LUCY WYLDSTYLE 1 0 - 0 - 0 ......... Lot 252 160K Savabeel - Almaviva BEAUMARCHAIS 9 2 - 1 - 1 62,325 Lot 325 150K Smart Missile - Corporate CORPORATE MISSILE 9 1 - 0 - 1 6,275 Lot 6 150K Savabeel - Kay's Awake WIDE AWAKE 6 1 - 1 - 1 8,700 Lot 182 120K O'Reilly - Starbelly O'REILLY STAR 0 . ........... Lot 258 120K Darci Brahma - Amaryllis JUSTICE LIGHT 0 ........... Lot 59 100K Zacinto - Miss Avalon ZAVISTIC 6 0 - 0 - 5 4,800 Lot 171 100K No Excuse Needed - Singing Star WINEHOUSE 0 .......... Lot 355 80K Darci Brahma - Distinctive Lass DISTINCTIVE DARCI 0 ........... Lot 186 80K Savabeel - Steal STOLEN LOVE 5 0 - 0 - 1 1,525 Lot 269 80K RipVan Winkle - Bak Da Princess HONOR 0 ............ Total out lay $ 3,180 Million Total stakes $386,200 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swynford 121 Report post Posted May 4, 2017 15 of the top priced lots sold by the leading vendor Premier Yearling Sale 2015 Lot Price Sire Dam NAME Starts Wins 2nd 3rd Stakes NZ$ Lot 340 600K Fastnet Rock - Dance On By ROCK AND SWING 7 1 - 0 - 1 56,442 Lot 374 400K O'Reilly - Etoile Du Nord LIBRETTO 0 ..................... Lot 47 400K O'Reilly - Make A Wish TWENTY ONE TIMES 4 1 - 1 - 0 8,600 Lot 123 340K O'Reilly - Pretty DAHOOIL 4 1 - 1 - 0 12,659 Lot 78 300K Savabeel - More To Love SAVE THE DATE 5 1 - 1 - 1 8,425 Lot 38 300K Pins - Lowland CROSS STITCH 7 1 - 1 - 2 47,491 Lot 88 260K Savabeel - Natural Rhythm SHIELD WALL 6 1 - 1 - 2 33,417 Lot 33 260K O'Reilly - Lightning Star ................ 0 ............. Lot 124 220K Savabeel - Prickle LINCOLN BLUE 11 3 - 3 - 2 113,350 Lot 16 250K Savabeel - Kowtow FAWN 1 0 - 0 - 0 ............. Lot 404 260K Savabeel - Girls On Top GOLD VELVET 3 0 - 0 - 0 ............... Lot 315 230K Pins - Charlotte'srevenge DORNOCH 7 1 - 1 - 2 24,509 Lot 31 200K Savabeel - Lego LUCY WYLDSTYLE 2 0 - 0 - 0 250 Lot 392 160K O'Reilly - Flutter SACRED IBIS 0 0 - 0 - 0 ............ Lot 128 160K O'Reilly - Promenade BOOMERANG 2 0 - 1 - 0 1,750 Total Sales $4.6 Million Total Stakes $306,893 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swynford 121 Report post Posted May 4, 2017 this is the bit that you are interested in Berri 15 Top priced lots out lay $ 6.865 Million stakes won $ 904,331 Swynfords Selections ' $ 2.745 Million ' $ 401,608 Leading Buyer " $ 3.180 Million ' $ 386,200 Leading Vendor ' $ 4.600 Million ' $ 306,893 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nasrullah 180 Report post Posted May 4, 2017 Thanks Swynford. Very interesting statistics! Probably better to do it again at the end of their 4yo year. One must remember that most of the fillies sold will have residual value after they have finished racing and obviously there will be the odd stallion prospect. The other obvious issue as we know in this game is that one horse can distort the numbers. A bit like Sales numbers, I prefer to look at Median than Average. You have the leading buyer but would be interesting to compare what some of the leading agents statistics look like. Eg- Bruce Perry, Phil Cataldo, Paul Moroney etc That is a bit more difficult to get the total picture as some leading agents advise but the purchase does not go under their name. Another one I find interesting is that making a profit can sometimes be easier when paying a service fee under $10,000 than above it!! Breeder 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
We're Doomed 4,873 Report post Posted May 5, 2017 Very interesting discussion. I suppose the other interesting stats would be the top 15 performers out of the sale and how much they won and how much they cost. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berri 2,131 Report post Posted May 5, 2017 Thanks Swynford. Good to see you're still playing the game. I think the real issue relates to the statistical success of stakes winners per selection. As I still don't really understand your philosophy (I don't understand the breeding pattern you are trying to advocate), what interested me is, what ever that is, is your selection theory statistically more successful than any other form of selection. You have chosen to compare your selection technique with the leading buyer, the leading vendor and yourself. Although interesting, the only reason why the cost would be interesting is that they correlate to a descending order of the highest prices either paid or realised by those other parties when comparing them with you own selections. The actual cost is irrelevant in determining success. So if I'm right, the stakes winners (performers) are: Premier top lots Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berri 2,131 Report post Posted May 5, 2017 Sorry people...got posted before I finished.... Thanks Swynford. Good to see you're still playing the game. I think the real issue relates to the statistical success of stakes winners per selection. As I still don't really understand your philosophy (I don't understand the breeding pattern you are trying to advocate), what interested me is, what ever that is, is your selection theory statistically more successful than any other form of selection. You have chosen to compare your selection technique with the leading buyer, the leading vendor and yourself. Although interesting, the only reason why the cost would be interesting is that they correlate to a descending order of the highest prices either paid or realised by those other parties when comparing them with you own selections. The actual cost is irrelevant in determining success. So if I'm right, the stakes winners (performers) are: Premier top lots 15 lots 1 stakes winners ...1 Group One winner Vendor Top Lots 15 lots 1 stakes winner .....1 Group 3 winner Swynford 15 lots 1 stakes winner ......1 Group One winner So as this stage no advantage. We'll wait one more year and then we'll do another tally up because there are a number of horses that may make it as older horses. Incidentally I also have a list of 15. These have been given to a lawyer and sealed. The only reason why I cannot publish who they are is because we were privy to being able to put some technology on them as yearlings and I was not allowed to inform anyone of the results until they had finished their 4 year old career, There are a number of very legitimate reasons for this. Lloyd Vivian 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...