Pete Lane 640 Report post Posted March 19 OK so here's the barrier stats from 2014 onwards. I'll be backing barrier 14 I think. Year Horse Barrier Weight 2023 Shinzo 1 56.5kg 2022 Fireburn 1 54.5kg 2021 Stay Inside 3 56.5kg 2020 Farnan 12 56.5kg 2019 Kiamichi 14 54.5kg 2018 Estijaab 14 54.5kg 2017 She Will Reign 11 54.5kg 2016 Capitalist 2 56.5kg 2015 Vancouver 16 56.5kg 2014 Mossfun 11 54.5kg Leggy 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohokaman 5,852 Report post Posted March 19 7 minutes ago, Pete Lane said: OK so here's the barrier stats from 2014 onwards. I'll be backing barrier 14 I think. Year Horse Barrier Weight 2023 Shinzo 1 56.5kg 2022 Fireburn 1 54.5kg 2021 Stay Inside 3 56.5kg 2020 Farnan 12 56.5kg 2019 Kiamichi 14 54.5kg 2018 Estijaab 14 54.5kg 2017 She Will Reign 11 54.5kg 2016 Capitalist 2 56.5kg 2015 Vancouver 16 56.5kg 2014 Mossfun 11 54.5kg Rue de Royale it is then Pete….. Then again….. Here is a quick look at the historical and barrier facts since the race was first run in 1957. The most successful barrier with nine wins – barrier 1 – Shinzo (No. 7) The least successful barrier with no wins – barrier 13 – Arkansaw Kid (No. 3) Last year‘s winning barrier – (barrier 1 – Fireburn) – Shinzo (No. 7) The longest losing sequence for a previous winning barrier – (barrier 9 – Sweet Embrace in 1967) – Exploring (No. 13) The first horse drawn in the 2023 Golden Slipper barrier draw – Little Brose (No. 1) barrier 5 The last horse drawn in the 2023 Golden Slipper barrier draw – King’s Gambit (No. barrier 7 Barriers 11, 12, 14 and 16 have produced six of the last 10 Golden Slipper winners – barrier 11 – Platinum Jubilee (No. 11), barrier 12 – Blanc De Blanc (No. 12), barrier 14 – Facile (No. 16), barrier 16 – Red Resistance (No. 6) Leggy and Pete Lane 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Lane 640 Report post Posted March 19 6 minutes ago, Ohokaman said: Rue de Royale it is then Pete….. Then again….. Here is a quick look at the historical and barrier facts since the race was first run in 1957. The most successful barrier with nine wins – barrier 1 – Shinzo (No. 7) The least successful barrier with no wins – barrier 13 – Arkansaw Kid (No. 3) Last year‘s winning barrier – (barrier 1 – Fireburn) – Shinzo (No. 7) The longest losing sequence for a previous winning barrier – (barrier 9 – Sweet Embrace in 1967) – Exploring (No. 13) The first horse drawn in the 2023 Golden Slipper barrier draw – Little Brose (No. 1) barrier 5 The last horse drawn in the 2023 Golden Slipper barrier draw – King’s Gambit (No. barrier 7 Barriers 11, 12, 14 and 16 have produced six of the last 10 Golden Slipper winners – barrier 11 – Platinum Jubilee (No. 11), barrier 12 – Blanc De Blanc (No. 12), barrier 14 – Facile (No. 16), barrier 16 – Red Resistance (No. 6) Rue de Royale currently 100/1. You saw it here first Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pak Star 716 Report post Posted March 19 18 hours ago, Leggy said: My NZ data says that barriers make no significant difference to the chance of a horse winning relative to its chance regardless of barrier. Out of interest, what was the factor that determined its relative chance to win? If its the tote price, then one could argue that the tote and betting public have already factored in its barrier, thus the best horse in the field who may otherwise be the favourite, suddenly draws barrier 16 and becomes the 5th favourite, and subsequently finishes 5th, then the data may appear that the barrier had no effect on the result because the 5th best horse according to the tote ended up finishing 5th as it "should". Whereas in reality it was probably the best horse in the field finishing 5th but tripped up by the barrier daw. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leggy 4,099 Report post Posted March 19 35 minutes ago, Pak Star said: Out of interest, what was the factor that determined its relative chance to win? If its the tote price, then one could argue that the tote and betting public have already factored in its barrier, thus the best horse in the field who may otherwise be the favourite, suddenly draws barrier 16 and becomes the 5th favourite, and subsequently finishes 5th, then the data may appear that the barrier had no effect on the result because the 5th best horse according to the tote ended up finishing 5th as it "should". Whereas in reality it was probably the best horse in the field finishing 5th but tripped up by the barrier daw. That's a fair and constructive critical question Pak Star. The answer is no. It's a primarily time and ability based assessment of chance which includes a number of other factors such as readiness and race and track condition suitability but NOT barrier draw. Similar to what Daniel O'Sullivan uses above in his assessment of Mr. Brightside but not the same. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
gubellini 4,010 Report post Posted March 19 Craig Williams retains the ride on Mr Brightside in the Australian Cup. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
MissJools 509 Report post Posted March 19 4 minutes ago, gubellini said: Craig Williams retains the ride on Mr Brightside in the Australian Cup. Yes we know, I posted this, earlier this afternoon. Insider 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Contentious 616 Report post Posted March 19 6 hours ago, MissJools said: I DON'T WORK AT THE TAB, AND I NEVER WILL!!!! Well done Joolsy - that is the most cryptic answer ever nO? We all know that you do not have to work at the TAB.. to work FOR the TAB Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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