Berri

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Everything posted by Berri

  1. Berri

    THIS IS SERIOUS PEOPLE MAKE NO MISTAKE

    I posted this remedy a while ago. Problem is that you can't literally get Hydroxychloroquine in NZ at the moment. It's the combination with Azithromycin and zinc that kicks the goals. The potion is as follows. Raoult has been trialing this for 4-6 weeks. He's one of the best virologists on the planet. He claims big Pharma is knee capping him. Cindy is way behind the game, as is that twit you see on TV. Have a look at these. They are the coal face to this stage. That no reporter has asked the question to Cindy is disgraceful. The off shore press is full of this. https://youtu.be/kjhdOvBTZLI https://youtu.be/QcOe85wTLbM
  2. I'm preparing a paper for racing in relation to management during and after the virus and you guys need to know what I am seeing and reading. This becomes relevant in respect of my proposition https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SO1uV-QB5Xk https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/ https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/why-france-is-hiding-a-cheap-and-tested-virus-cure/ https://techstartups.com/2020/04/01/hydroxychloroquine-game-changer-beginning-end-coronavirus-pandemic-infectious-disease-specialist-dr-stephen-smith-says/ https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-usa-guidance-exclu-idUKKBN21M0QU And in respect to the use of Hydroxy Chloroquine, it is a combination of compounds, not Chloroquine on its own. Here's the open sourced remedy. Not good in chronic cases, very good at the start C-19 Treatment copy.pages
  3. I thought I'd share this with you all. May make me look like an idiot but I don't mind pushing the status quo. Seems as though we don't know the meaning of courage and common sense anymore. Last week I was asked a few questions by David Seymour. Attached is my response. Takes some reading but I thought the response required it. Moving forward copy.pages
  4. Berri

    Common Sense Versus Mediocrity

    It so happens I have a living document because I'm working with others for a racing solution. You always have to have reasons for doing something and if you don't document it, you have no right to enact it. Anyone seen a plan or any suggestion from government as to how a full lock down is going to help NZ in the long terms? I heard Cindy say that they were trying to wipe it out instead of herd immunisation. Then take what happened with Mico Bovis. They said they were going to wipe it out. So they killed every cow that had it. They haven't yet finished it off. So in this case we can't kill the people who get it. Read my other rant. Nothing makes sense. We can't afford to leave this mess up to the current management. In good times they didn't get it so what makes you think they'll be able to plan something during this sort of situation. The current plan being developed is very radical but it can be achieved. It's time we really got serious and move with a different sort of leadership. Rome is burning
  5. Berri

    THIS IS SERIOUS PEOPLE MAKE NO MISTAKE

    Cindy hasn't experienced enough to know what to do or how to do it. She can't continue to flick her hair and look down trodden. She's out of her league and is playing with all of our lives. The go forward strategy is seriously flawed because there is very little forward thinking and common sense moving forward. Everything is from a depressive position. And that twit that went biking...I personally think we should be able to go biking but protocols need to be followed to mitigate twits and fuck ups. But IF you're the health minister, and you've been telling people to self isolate, then by fuck you've got to do it. And if Jacinda finds out about it, she's got to smash him to the curb. It's not good enough to accept an apology. That's the wrong message for a period of time when everyone is under duress. Have you heard the politicians volunteer a pay cut? No. Why not? As a leader I would because guess what, I have taken a full cut, and all the people that work with me are being helped by what I now don't get. They deserve it and its warranted. There are tough times now and more to come because of all these twits not thinking with enough imagination and courage. As for our RITA and NZTR representatives, most have to be laid off and the head management need to cut in half at least. Brian is right in the Optimist....Dean, you've got to step up to the plate...tell us the cuts that you've taken....be transparent, show leadership that you're prepared to bite the bullet like everyone else in the industry. If you don't you will become another body on the heap.
  6. Berri

    Common Sense Versus Mediocrity

    From: David Seymour <ruggaseymour@hotmail.com> Sent: Sunday, 29 March 2020 10:21 pm To: berrischroder@gmail.com Subject: Re: corona virus Hi Berri, Yes thanks, you are asking the right question. Any Government can put a restriction in place, the hard part is lifting them. What does our future look like in a post Covid world? Here are a few more questions that I am asking thoughtful people: How to decide to lower the current level of alert (and does the govt have data)? What does the fiscal plan look like (tax increases may be necessary, if so I suggest raising the 10.5c and 30c rates to match the rates above, giving a relatively flat structure of 17.5c up to 48k and 33 thereafter. There will also have to be a lot of reductions in spending What does the preparedness plan for the next one look like (could a much more prepared, surgical, and tech-enabled solution have reduced transmission without the kind of economic catastrophe we’re now facing?) What does the NZ economy look like given that, even if we sort our own house, the rest of the world is going to have ongoing problems in different places (and what is the role of Government in this?) Of course, there will be other questions, David Now that’s a challenge. The first thing I’d be saying is test, test and then test again…and that is the most critical pathway what ever happens. Make a public statement….Go harder than you have every gone….it’s a no brainer….test EVERYONE coming into the country. Test everyone for the anti bodies so that you know who have had it. And once you finish that keep testing. It’s the cheapest way to combat this virus and formulate plans for the future. Don’t compromise like the current idiots are. Get a NZ entity in NZ to contact Abbot Labs in the US or Biosure in the UK and get test kits made in NZ IF we can’t get them…Simultaneously…..ICU beds….produce, produce, produce The problem is that as a society we have got soft, we haven’t really suffered hardship, our younger people have an addiction to social media and don’t have a perspective that is anything else other than a consensus model that is community based. As most people live in cities, this is rather a distorted view of our environment and what the norms of social behaviour should be like. I listened to Bloomfield this morning on the AM Show. For the first time I realised that he is mediocre. He was asked two pertinent questions, one being in relation to the unfortunate death of the West Coast women, and the other relating to the Queenstown testing company that offered test kits that were 96% accurate but gave a result in 15 min. His responses to both were disappointing, more so the Queenstown testing kits. When asked if they could be used for all incoming passengers, he stated that enough people were being tested. When pressed, he said that the people getting tested were those with symptoms. He was happy that all people were doing the right thing in self isolating. But hang on a minute….many infected people are asymptomatic in many cases (18% according to WHO). There are reports that in certain countries, infection may be as high as 40% already. So he’s now relying on self isolation. But humans are humans….that’s a flawed strategy if you’re going for complete containment. Why not test everyone coming into the country if self containment is the strategy? Having a 4% error is better than a 14% error due to asymptomatic issues. Don’t have to be Einstein to work that out. Hence my mediocre label, and the West Coast response was similar. You’d have thought that because it was our first death, then the bloke would be all over it like a bad rash, simply to provide comfort to all that everything was being done…..a shame. So to the problem at hand. The unknowns are that if you get it, do you get it again? That is the curly. To find that out we need to go backwards. Try this…. https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-i/1918-flu-pandemic I have no doubt this hasn't been thought through enough. Herd immunity is the only long term course (apart from vaccination) to get back to normal. All of this lock down is a political solution to attempt to restrict visual social media from displaying the short comings of a health system in disarray and the inability for governments to efficiently manage health outbreaks such as pandemics. We should have been prepared but we weren't. We had plenty of notice (SARS, MERS, Ebola etc) but no notice was taken. Even when the reports of a potential pandemic in China was in play, our health officials ignored it. The government ignored it. So this lock down is all about mitigating the risk of social discord and buying time because we weren't prepared. Hollywood even beat governments to it. Now to the facts: Health Condition Period Registered Infections * Deaths* % Deaths to Registered Infections 01-01-2020 to 29-3-2020 Tuberculosis 2,490,000 475,000 15% Malaria 17,100,000 101,000 0.50% Aids 37,900,000** 192,500 0.50% Influenza 19,000,000** * 38,333 0.20% C-19 622,395 28,804 4.60% Measles 650,000 35,000 5.30% * From 2018 figures ** have the disease *** Estimated as a percentage So that tells us where we are in terms of other conditions that have been plaguing us over the years. The three that really interest me are TB, Influenza (Flu) and measles as these are viral and have vaccines for them. The Flu interests me because the reason for annual flu jabs is that the flu strain seems to be a 2 yearly mutation. That is why every year they go hard at getting this winter's flu jabs. As we already know that C-19 has had one mutation cycle. " As the new coronavirus continues to spread around the globe, researchers say the virus is changing its genetic makeup slightly. Viruses mutate naturally as part of their life cycle," says Ewan Harrison, scientific project manager for the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium, a new project that tracks the virus in the United Kingdom. So here we are, politically smashing the entire financial environment, which theoretically will cause more deaths than the virus itself. There is a direct correlation between the financial stability of human beings and ill health and death. Let’s look to the herd immunisation proposition, which is essentially what the Spanish Flu was all about. So let's keep to the facts. If we have 800 ICU beds available that have respirators, and we have a population of 4.5m and we know that statistically 80% of the population will get this, and we know that 6% will require hospitalisation, then we need 216,000 beds. If the virus cycles every 7 days (mean is 6.8 but there has been one outlier of 27 days - that complicates things somewhat), then to avoid a political and social meltdown of people being cared for in the corridors and lots of dead bodies shown on film, we need 25,000 beds to smash this over 10 weeks. This presumes that we can control the contagion to space the infection exposure to approx 450,000 people per week. Each ICU bed is approx $3500 each so therefore we need approx $87m for ICU bed equipment. Say we need places where 200 beds can be put under roof. You could make super centres for all of this but with that comes problems associated with logistics of transport and location. Some patients may not have the luxury of time. These places must be able to cater for 200 people for food and ablutions. That means we need 150 facilities that can be converted quickly and inexpensively. We also need say 1 educated helper per 5 beds. That means we need to quickly train 5000 people to work a ICU bed. We also need overseeing doctors and emergency stuff and personnel for when the shit hits the fan with those that should die but can be saved. This equipment and this group of people will be the tricky thing to source. This is where the army comes in. They have a lot of kit that can help but probably not enough. But they do have people with mobilisation knowledge and skills. The rest, we buy. We offer offshore people a fortune to help us for 6 months and we go hard. You do realise that our race tracks may have facilities that when converted can help? They have space, kitchens and location. They are invariably attached to a town. Those towns have doctors and I'll bet you there are volunteers everywhere to be educated, or wish to help. So to the cost?......less than $500m with a bump of three months and it's all over. Weigh that against 800 beds available during isolation where "hopefully" we'll stamp it out but like measles and TB we won't because we can't have all the borders closed for ever and this virus is seriously contagious. To achieve the isolation result, we need all the countries in the World to be compliant, but that cannot be relied upon. Alternatively we say to the rest of the World that our quarantine regulations have changed and to get into the country you need to put yourself in a certified quarantine station for 27 days (we do it for our horses), you need three separate tests during quarantine and when you get to NZ, you will have to place your luggage in quarantine for 14 days and you’ll have to be scrubbed from head to foot before you step inside. Is that really practical for if one case gets through our borders we are chasing our tails again? What are we to do in the future? A new virus has come to town. You really think it can be eliminated when measles and TB can't? This C-19 flu is a different version of flu and somehow we have to get resistance to it or subscribe to waiting for a vaccine that may affect us for many years to come. From th Hopkins Research Centre The virus is not a living organism, but a protein molecule (DNA) covered by a protective layer of lipid (fat), which, when absorbed by the cells of the ocular, nasal or buccal mucosa, changes their genetic code. (mutation) and convert them into aggressor and multiplier cells. * Since the virus is not a living organism but a protein molecule, it is not killed, but decays on its own. The disintegration time depends on the temperature, humidity and type of material where it lies. * The virus is very fragile; the only thing that protects it is a thin outer layer of fat. That is why any soap or detergent is the best remedy, because the foam CUTS the FAT (that is why you have to rub so much: for 20 seconds or more, to make a lot of foam). By dissolving the fat layer, the protein molecule disperses and breaks down on its own. * HEAT melts fat; this is why it is so good to use water above 25 degrees Celsius for washing hands, clothes and everything. In addition, hot water makes more foam and that makes it even more useful. * Alcohol or any mixture with alcohol over 65% DISSOLVES ANY FAT, especially the external lipid layer of the virus. So to manually get rid of it we need to provide applications that achieve the above. A vaccine is different. I listened to a Zoom cast put on by the Weizmann Institute in Israel. They're probably known around the World as one of the most progressive research centres on the planet. Gates allegedly gives them $250m a year. The Zoom Cast had sqillions of viewers. Through Following At Home, they've allegedly linked together 2.1m computers to make the World's largest super computer. They are now open sourcing a collaborative initiative between 2000 scientists and laboratories. Included in the initiative are four of the largest AI and machine learning centres to analysis and process the data being created. There allegedly are over 150 lab simultaneously conducting tests on humanoids to establish what works and what doesn't. There is another set of labs inventing shit that can only be described as a World collaboration. The vaccine that they are attempting to make will be open sourced. No one will own it. On record is the head of that facility saying that normal vaccines take 8-10 years to develop and cost $1-1.5b to make. They think they can do it in 4-5 months. The real issue is manufacturing, where he said sourcing the components (set aside the manufacturing) could take a further 4 months. So we at best are in a 8 month hold pattern for a vaccine that has never been delivered in a time from of less than 8 months, but is probably longer. The right people should now know the data surrounding the type of people who are getting sick. This will help manage areas like South Auckland, Northland and the East Coast IF they have the profiles as being the type that get sick. But at the same time there are initiatives all round the World that are produces promising results. The key of these initiatives for us in NZ, is that if they are effective, how do we get hold of them? So we need to access a production resource that when the results of effectiveness are known, get them produced in our territory. Hydroxychloroquine and Azithemycin is one of these, as are blood plasma products. What we need to do is prepare for a herd immunisation program as soon as it looks as though there is a meaningful solution to health remedies, but we should have it anyway for those who want to participate in herd immunisation. If I knew that I wasn’t in a vulnerable group, and I knew there was a hospital bed for me prepared and ready to go, I would think very hard about going for it. I have been trying to get Hydroxychloroquine and Azithemycin a month ago but it wasn’t available to me due to regulations. There were two containers of it at the Remuera Chemist. They told me I needed a doctors prescription. I went next door to my doctor. He told me I needed a specialist doctors prescription. What the fuck? So for us, we will be locked up, closed down, locked up, and closed down as outbreaks occur. We will not have freedom as we know it until we are all infected or the remedy/ vaccine arrives in no earlier than 8 months. In the meantime, Rome burns....how do we fund the cost of all of this without ripping everything apart for many years to come? So taking into account all of what seems to be a combination of statistics, common sense and scientific advice, if we carry on with the proposed plan, there is every chance that debt will be as high as 30% of GDP but this could be higher. We know what happens when we exceed that and all you’ve got to do is look at the 1929 Crash to understand the effects. Look backwards before you look forwards. At the moment it would seem that this crisis is being managed in an under duress model and that always has serious issues. We need to set the pace, not follow it but that takes courage. If I were running this country, I would use herd immunity as my tool. I would spend a truck load of money on symptomatic treatment for the chronic cases. I would regionalise it so that the chronic cases can be managed health wise. My biggest tool would be testing kits, not only if I had the active virus, but almost more important, have I had it. This creates certainty to the mobilisation of people. If an entire town had been infected, then why couldn’t they go back to work in that town. You could argue that we don’t know if you can be re-infected, but if that is the case then we’re all seriously in trouble no matter what. So the faster the better because it will still be there. The alert levels would be set as an algorithm combining a defined regional data trawl between who hasn’t got it, who has got it, who has had it and how many dead people want to be paraded on social media due to an incompetent, inefficient and/ or inadequate remedial health system. Testing kits are the key. If we can’t buy them, let’s make them. So to the fiscal plan. Well managed herd inoculation is the cheapest solution so apart from all the export issues, if we were all immune, we could accept tourism and be one of the countries in the World that is looked as a safe haven, as long as the testing and quarantine systems were extremely robust for the new arrivals. What an opportunity IF we did it right now!!! So how do we pay for this? $500,000,000 interim versus a guaranteed $12.5b….. If it were me running the country, I’d now be reaching for social media and interlinking some of the best financial and economic brains in NZ, who were trusted by New Zealanders, to open source an economic initiative in investigate the financial issues so that a consensus of the social media population could be informed and be directed by the proposition. I would hold a virtual referendum at the right time. I unfortunately have no faith in our government because all I ever see is a mess. So the tax issue to pay for this in future should be modelled depending on the eventual initiative to make us immune. If we wanted to play it absolutely safe, then we’d wait. But we’d probably go bust trying that. We simply need to be smart. The tax modelling on this should be open sourced as well so that everyone has the opportunity to discuss and understand the choice and opportunity. A tax model should be created to determine the amount of tax to be paid and the way it would affect everyone in specific wage/ remuneration brackets, so that prior to it happening, everyone would know what they are in for. This should be dynamic. Why keep people in the dark? We need to now have a slightly more open reporting society. On the topic of a preparedness plan, I’d simply invite Bill Gates to a conference call and ask him to supply all the information and data that he has accumulated for the past 10 years on the topic. He has invested time and an enormous amount of money putting his thoughts together. If he can get up in front of the World community in 2015 the way he did (and numerous additional times), then he understands it better than anyone. For him it would be completing unfinished business that was seriously dear to his heart that for some reason ran into a lot of resistance. The last topic is an interesting one and simply follows on from our discussions in respect of policies. Right now you have a huge opportunity to look modern, well informed, collaborative and compassionate. We have the potential to reset every bar right now. You need to have some seriously good technology behind you and have the potential to come out swinging while everyone is feeling sorry for themselves and/ or punch drunk. You need a team of solids and outliers. The paradigm of conventional has just changed. If everyone in NZ were immune, then the proposition would be different. We really need to ask the people in NZ to see what they want. I’m radical (I want it but may have had it- but can’t get a test) but my approach to this is not necessarily the right approach for a lot of others. So if you could get a group of like minded people in a co-ordinated initiative that suits us, and we didn’t compromise others, then why not? It would help the economy. I live in three houses, Auckland, Matamata and Arrowtown. My ex wife also has her house. My youngest son came up from Otago Uni and is with his mother….self isolated. My oldest son came in from Melbourne. He went into my Auckland house because he really needed to self isolate. He has a history of respiratory issues (shit). I moved to Matamata. I didn’t call everyone to Arrowtown where I’m on the farm. Plenty to do down there but no hospitals if the proverbial hits the fan. So if I knew I was immune, how much more effective would I be? Due to my education, I am probably more informed than most. So if I was planning for the future, I’d be developing a immunity card. Almost like a drivers license but with the conditions that I was immune to. So what do we need for that? An absolutely secure file on everyone which has both the inoculation schedule (historic) but also an immunity schedule. What does that come down to….test test, test. This virus is a health issue. It will accelerate compliance for food generation and traceability. Everyone will be looking at food and packaging as a potential transfer of bugs. These viruses live on certain surfaces for some time. We need to show the World that we are compliant. We need to show that our environment and food is the best in the World. We need to be leaders. We need to show the World that IF you come to NZ, you are coming to the safest place in the World. We need to rejig tourism. We don’t need low end cattle truck tourism. We need to make sure that what ever we do we can control it because this virus may be the wake up call. One thing that has happened is that we have shown terrorists how to wreck everything. We need to be part of a World health solution so that the issues and numbers can be trusted. No-one trusted China when this outbreak broke out. They still don’t. So we could lead the way. Not because it’s a good political grandstand, but more that it’s the right thing to do. The unfortunate part is that New Zealand society has pursued the notion that government is the go to position. It shouldn’t be because we now have the tools to take everything away from government. But haven’t seen any politician state that they will take a pay cut. I haven’t seen the government (or the racing industry) say that their work force will be laid off and I certainly haven’t seen our leaders say that their remuneration packages have been chopped in half. Most other businesses have. We’re all in the same boat. So unfortunately there is a rule for them and a rule for us scenario. We’re all at home doing less than we were before. So I’m into creating social change that we should all pay for to “Break the Cycle”. What ever it takes. It’s socially right and we all suffer because we’ve screwed it up for centuries. The numbers just get bigger. I’m into making NZ produced food into being the best grown, best managed, best environmental food on the planet. That is why I have a farming policy that cuts out petro chemical fertiliser and spray use so that the animals and environment is better. Just so happens that when you do this you produce more and its worth more. Reward people and they will perform. The fishing industry needs a complete over haul. It’s not working and this year we shall see a completely different event happen in respect of crayfish stocks. C-19 messed with Chinese New Years so 1500 tonnes of crayfish weren’t harvested. Great news. But our fish stocks are shot, the quota system is corrupt and there aren’t any controls in place. NZers are missing out and are being short changed. Tourism is very different. At the moment many tourists come into NZ on a package tour. They are sold tokens that see the tourists attend shops where they can by things using the tokens. Those shops are owned by the tourist operators. So a lot of NZ misses the kerching of the till because no funds come through NZ. Let’s be like the American film industry where the studios could not own the picture theatres. That meant that corruption couldn’t occur through accounting. In NZ we are missing out on a fortune of GST in the sale of certain goods through this token system, We also could have a fantastic young persons tourist spot. We just need to be the best and the cheapest is not the best. If we were a shining light in the World in respect of our next steps, we would attract the right people. Don’t be afraid to charge for things that could provide better more robust facilities and systems. Look at what the tourists needed to do when we had the current virus problem. This is the under duress model. We want to become the go to place because our systems are the best. If we set up a rewards program that is very generic, biased towards the ethos of what this country needs, then we will drag this economy back faster. Another rave…..The technology platform is what I’d be aiming for at this stage. From that you can launch anything.
  7. Berri

    Is this happening in Petone

    So if I were writing on the back of a nappy, I'd say if GBR was $3.7m and the deal was 3% of revenue goes to Aussie for the content and let's say that the GBR margin was a high 18% of the bet, then the betting is approx $37m (which seems impossibly high) where Aussie gets $1.1m, weekly costs of approx $1.15m (60m divided by 52 weeks) leaves $1.45m less the amount to pay for the FOB platform.
  8. Berri

    Is this happening in Petone

    It normally means the amount bet less the amount paid out to the winners
  9. Berri

    THIS IS SERIOUS PEOPLE MAKE NO MISTAKE

    I mentioned Hydroxy-chloroquine in an earlier post. You could buy it in the Remuera pharmacy but you needed a specialists prescription to get it. Went back three days later and it was all gone. It needs to be administered with azithromycin together to have a desired effect. Hydroxy-chloroquine can have seriously average side effects.
  10. Berri

    Thank your lucky stars

    Not buff enough
  11. Berri

    Betting on two flies crawling up a wall next?

    Are the E-Sports bets in NZ or offshore? Likewise the events
  12. Berri

    Thank your lucky stars

    Very good. Says it all
  13. Berri

    THIS IS SERIOUS PEOPLE MAKE NO MISTAKE

    So Peter RS, how long do you think this is going to take, where the borders are closed so that no-one pollutes NZ with the virus again? I was an advocate some weeks ago that any person wanting to come in NZ needed to enter quarantine off shore (like our horses) before getting to NZ. Then we have less chance of it getting onshore. The problem is that a surface is enough to infect. What about imported goods? Do they have to go into quarantine? What say this morphs and comes bad a a yearly flu like the Spanish Flu? Do we keep everything closed? It's all about the hospital beds.
  14. Berri

    THIS IS SERIOUS PEOPLE MAKE NO MISTAKE

    The number of people who die will depend on the care they get (if they need it) post catching it. Statistically 4.5m people, 80% getting it, with a 4.0% death rate =144,000. So to get 80,000 he must think that 1.78% of those who catch it die. A little low based on the statistics. Currently there are 660,150 reported cases with 30,642 deaths (4.64%). You'd have to say that a lot of those are due to the lack of medical assistance and equipment, hence the political solution of shutting down to keep up with the hospital beds
  15. Berri

    THIS IS SERIOUS PEOPLE MAKE NO MISTAKE

    I left out one part of that table. The period is from 1-1-2010 to now
  16. Berri

    THIS IS SERIOUS PEOPLE MAKE NO MISTAKE

    Totally agree. I have no doubt this hasn't been thought through enough. Herd immunity is the only long term course (apart from vaccination) to get back to normal. All of this lock down is a political solution to attempt to restrict visual social media from displaying the short comings of a health system in disarray and the inability for governments to efficiently manage health outbreaks such as pandemics. We should have been prepared but we weren't. We had plenty of notice (SARS, MERS, Ebola etc) but no notice was taken. Even when the reports of a potential pandemic in China was in play, our health officials ignored it. The government ignored it. So this lock down is all about mitigating the risk of social discord and buying time because we weren't prepared. Hollywood even beat governments to it. Now to the facts: Health Condition Period * Registered Infections Deaths % Deaths to Registered Infections 01-01-2020 Tuberculosis 2,490,000 475,000 15% Malaria 17,100,000 101,000 0.50% Aids 37,900,000** 192,500 0.50% Influenza 19,000,000** * 38,333 0.20% C-19 622,395 28,804 4.60% Measles 650,000 35,000 5.30% * From 2018 figures ** have the disease *** Estimated as a percentage So that tells us where we are in terms of other conditions that have been plaguing us over the years. The three that really interest me are TB, Influenza (Flu) and measles as these are viral and have vaccines for them. The Flu interests me because the reason for annual flu jabs is that the flu strain seams to be a 2 yearly mutation. That is why every year they go hard at getting this winter's flu jabs. As we already know that C-19 has had one mutation cycle. " As the new coronavirus continues to spread around the globe, researchers say the virus is changing its genetic makeup slightly. "Viruses mutate naturally as part of their life cycle," says Ewan Harrison, scientific project manager for the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium, a new project that tracks the virus in the United Kingdom." So here we are, politically smashing the entire financial environment, which theoretically will cause more deaths than the virus itself. There is a direct correlation between the financial stability of human beings and ill health and death. So let's keep to the facts. If we have 800 ICU beds available that have respirators, and we have a population of 4.5m and we know that statistically 80% of the population will get this, and we know that 6% will require hospitalisation, then we need 216,000 beds. If the virus cycles every 7 days (mean is 6.8 but there has been one outlier of 27 days - that complicates things somewhat), then to avoid a political and social meltdown of people being cared for in the corridors and lots of dead bodies shown on film, we need 25,000 beds to smash this over 10 weeks. This presumes that we can control the contagion to space the infection exposure to approx 450,000 people per week. Each ICU bed is approx $3500 each so therefore we need approx $87m for equipment. Say we need places where 200 beds can be put under roof. These places must be able to cater for 200 people for food and ablutions. That means we need 150 facilities that can be converted quickly. We also need say 1 educated helper per 5 beds. That means we need to quickly train 5000 people to work a ICU bed. We also need overseeing doctors and emergency stuff and personnel for when the shit hits the fan with those that should die but can be saved. This equipment and this group of people will be the tricky thing to source. This is where the army comes in. They have a lot of kit that can help but probably not enough. But they do have people with mobilisation knowledge and skills. The rest, we buy. We offer offshore people a fortune to help us for 6 months and we go hard. You do realise that our race tracks may have facilities that when converted can help? They have space, kitchens and location. They are invariably attached to a town. Those towns have doctors and I''ll bet you there are volunteers everywhere to be educated, or wish to help. So to the cost?......less than $500m with a bump of three months and it's all over. Weigh that against 800 beds available during isolation where "hopefully" we'll stamp it out but like measles and TB we won't because we can't have all the borders closed for ever and this virus is seriously contagious. What are we to do in the future? A new virus has come to town. You really think it can be eliminated when measles and TB can't? And what of the Spanish Flu that allegedly killed 50m World wide. Have a read https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-i/1918-flu-pandemic This C-19 flu is a different version of it and somehow we have to get resistance to it or subscribe to waiting for a vaccine that may affect us for many years to come. Read about it Hopkins Research Centre attachment... I listened to a Zoom cast put on by the Weizmann Institute in Israel. They're probably known around the World as one of the most progressive research centers on the planet. Gates gives them $250m a year. The Zoom Cast had sqillions of viewers. Through Following At Home, they've allegedly linked together 2.1m computers to make the World's largest super computer. They are now open sourcing a collaborative initiative between 2000 scientists and laboratories. Included in the initiative are four of the largest AI and machine learning centers to analysis and process the data being created. There allegedly are over 150 lab simultaneously conducting tests on humanoids to establish what works and what doesn't. There is another set of labs inventing shit that can only be described as a World collaboration. The vaccine that they are attempting to make will be open sourced. No one will own it. On record is the head of that facility saying that normal vaccines take 8-10 years to develop and cost $1-1.5b to make. They think they can do it in 4-4 months. The real issue is manufacturing, where he said sourcing the components (set aside the manufacturing) could take a further 4 months. So we at best are in a 8 month hold pattern for a vaccine that has never been delivered in a time from of less than 8 months, but is probably longer. So for us, we will be locked up, closed down, locked up, and closed down as outbreaks occur. We will not have freedom as we know it until we are all infected or the vaccine arrives in no earlier than 8 months. In the meantime, Rome burns....how do we fund the cost of all of this without ripping everything apart for many years to come? Racing could play a big part in all of this. I'm currently exploring the ability to link all of us together for a Zoom cast so that we can all get the juices flowing. We have an opportunity here. We just need the right people, the right mandate and the right direction to get things going. I'm not impressed with the level of info and thought by our leaders to this point so we have to take the matter into our own hands. Sorry for all the spelling mistakes or lack of some grammer but it's Sunday and I feel lazy Hopkins Research Centre.docx
  17. Berri

    dean mckenzie

    That's not correct. The racing clubs were the underwriters to the loan, not the racing conference or the TAB itself. Therefore ownership vests with the racing clubs.
  18. Berri

    dean mckenzie

    It wasn't a hospital pass...it was step towards self glorification but unfortunately that team (RITA) fell well short of the mark. They had a blue print in the form of the Messara report, who it must be said has already demonstrated that he has some skills and the courage required, to create positive change for the racing industry. You don't need to agree with everything in the report, but there is enough meat on the bone to have direction. The unfortunate result from RITA's efforts is such that there is very little in the proposed Bill that can be recognised as being the advice given by Messara. I for one, don't agree with the appointment of a single entity to create, market and distribute the content of NZ racing. I am a supporter of affiliate models where multiple affiliates can distribute the content. This is an open source solution, which is where commerce is moving, as the on-line and virtual tools become developed. If, for example, we gave the rights to a very big conglomerate that had processes and governance that its directors considered risky, or in conflict with its current activities, then we may not see the development of betting assets that are relevant in the future. So by having the flexibility to embrace these modern technologies, which though risky, eventually provide favourable results, then we must have the opportunity to have a go. I had a proper crack at setting up a lottery based on horse racing. Did it properly, paid out the largest ever dividend in UK betting history. Got closed down by UK government because they wanted Betfred to have the tote monopoly. In NZ they didn't do it because the Lotteries Commission complained that it would compete with the lotteries. Who suffered and continues to suffer? Racing. In 1996 I sat next to Bert Black over dinner. He was creating Betfair. The result was Betfair became a shareholder in us and we in Betfair. But prior to doing that I saw George Hickton (CEO of RIB) to try and get him to develop an exchange. . He wrote to me stating that the TAB didn't experiment with new technologies....and the rest is history. This sort of thing has been happening for years. But back to RITA. That effort was an abomination. I was asked to post the four submissions that I prepared and submitted. They were simply commonsense. No rocket fuel there so how was it that I could pick such gaping holes into the proposed legislation.....if you were promoting racing? And that's where I think the water became murky. This proposed Bill wasn't about promoting racing. It was about settling the account on behalf of sport. So what did Dean qualify for at the American Uni?....sport. I really like Dean but I struggled to understand how racing was left behind as much as it was in the proposed Bill.
  19. Berri

    THIS IS SERIOUS PEOPLE MAKE NO MISTAKE

    There are few people who are as qualified to give us an experienced opinion on what should be done about C-19. Bill Gates is one of them. The first link is a speech that he gave 5 years go. The second is an interview he did last night. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wyiwI&t=60s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe8fIjxicoo
  20. If we're one of the only nations racing, then we're one of a few with betting content. So how do we keep racing going? Let's isolate every racing establishment with no exceptions for 14 days and have testing kits available for all participants. The day the entity goes into self installed hibernation they get tested. They then get tested at day 7 and then day 14. A test is not only to see if they have the virus but also if they have had it. Anyone who has had it is immune. Let's install infra red sensors, or have tested people with mobile infra red sensors at all entrances to race/ training tracks. No person goes to the track without either having three negative tests and the regular infra red screen. Social distancing needs to still occur while on the track. Jockeys and track work riders are tested daily as they go from horse to horse. And when I mean each racing establishment, I would also include any person required to be part of the process to train horses or hold a race meeting (float drivers, media crew, starting stall attendants etc). I wouldn't have tote staff involved because we are going to introduce a smart on-line presentation at a time of duress and we don't need extra risk of on course betting, although this may be introduced as we go along, as we understand the true nature of the beast in this country. We need to reduce the workforce in Petone. This is the golden opportunity to do this and also provide all other key employees the opportunity to stay on under reduced pay which wouldn't increase once the real embargo are lifted. They are being paid too much and most of them will be jobless unless we offer a candid solution. They can't be in the same building under lockdown rules. We go for an online solution only, with the introduction of additional systems from the savings of employees payments and the reduction of the mad salaries that are currently being paid to the likes of Glenn Saville etc. They've already stuffed things up so time and opportunity to start with a new crew. We need a seriously good Information Processing System (IPS) which is the Racing Post site on steroids. I know how to do it because I architected that in 1995. This would allow the international racing market (our customers) to have the tools to "get to know" our horses and people (distinctly different from the current idiot's positions in calling it "the Product"). The IPS could connect all the horses to all the owners (they can't see and touch their horses) and the content would then be available to all the punters. The media data could include videos and uploaded content that trainers/ staff and anyone else, decide to create. The owners (the owners of the data) could then allow their data (their discretion) to be used by the punters but that there is a default amount of information available. This could all be funded by the cost savings due to the layoffs and reduced salaries in Petone. And let's not get socialistic and unionist about this. These are extraordinary times and IF WE DON'T ACT, we will pay for it for years. When things were good, we were about to fail. While I'm at it, to have to provide a $17m annual fee to Paddy Power et al for the FOB platform, nows the time to kick that into touch and renegotiate. We're already millions behind on that (we haven't got some of the updates so we're being handicapped) and it isn't good and it was a crap deal. And sports in the meantime is crap. So we default and renegotiate. Now's the time!!! All bets are off. So back to racing. While all of this is going on, we have a chance of looking at things through clear lenses. The racing industry owns the tote. We've argued that for 30 years but the governmental powers that be, have chosen to act in an autocratic and dictatorial manner, and our bureaucratic representatives have been quite useless. Although the proposed Racing Bill has a suggested 126 changes in it from the latest round of submissions, unless it has what we need (first) and want (2nd) racing will always run second fiddle to politics. This this is our chance to reset the clock. We should simply say what we want and get on with the job. So to racing, for the next 6 months we may have a problem large enough to destroy the industry. When things were fine, we were messing it up. So let's change it. Let's use this period of financial and social duress to change things because we have to and want to. Winter racing is poor racing unless you can provide a spectacle. Yes Cambridge is going to have a all weather track. Only problem there is that it has a short straight and can only cater for less than 12 horses in each race before putting the racing real-estate under duress. I argued that if we were to build an all weather track, make it capable of taking 24 horses and for it to have a 800m straight at the very least. That way we can appeal to the international markets, have enough horses to make betting interesting (14+ horses in each race is ideal) and provide each horse with an equal chance despite the barrier draw. But no. They chose to put a square peg in a round hole by having the all weather on the existing race track where only a 300m straight was possible due to real estate that was available. That track didn't need to be where the current track was. So what is good winter racing? The UK has taught us that. Eight of the top ten betting races the UK are jumps. Amount bet on jumps racing vs flat racing....jumps 26% higher. Number of online or television spectators jumps versus flat...Jumps 23% higher. Biggest betting race in the UK and Ireland...Jumps race. Why you might ask? The intuitive response would be to say that jumpers are older horses so there are more opportunities to get to know the competitors. The second would be that people like the event to last longer. A third would be that with obstacles, the event (from an entertainment perspective) is far more exciting. The fourth is that people intuitively like to identify with courage and winners of these races exemplify that emotion. The fifth would be that people get bored with the money men (Arabs, Coolmore etc) winning races as the "small man" cannot afford to compete, whereas in jumping they can. So let's embrace these statistics and provide a new racing calendar for our winter racing. This just so happens to coincide with all of this virus stuff. Let's right now, and quickly look at NZ's whole race program and react very quickly. Let's set up a new competition to look after this winter/ wet track / jumps type of horse because there aren't enough good flat gallopers to provide the sort of competition that we need to make it appealing to the rest of the World for betting, so let's take two parts to this. The first is to create something of such interest that makes it different. That could be setting up a race competition for horses racing up to 5000m on the flat. Let's make a whole program for this. This would turn a few heads in the World and make it a unique betting opportunity. We have the horses, we just need the events. As its run in winter, the mere fact that they are slow doesn't matter. In 1793 each race in the UK calendar was 3 1/2 miles (that is 5638m) unless otherwise notified. There were only 42 notified races and they were all over 2 miles (3200m) and the traditional horse person objected to these because they thought it too short. As its winter, we can train them on softer tracks so better for them on their legs. You will find a new breed of participant if you do this. If you chop $50m out of the over bloated and inflated salaries in Petone, these races will be worth racing for. The second is to create a proper jumps calendar. We would start by a hierarchy of races. Unfortunately we don't have a large group of jumpers so we need to start a novice championship series for hurdlers and steeplechasers, with a graded pattern (initially done with incremental stakes levels) so that we set up the big iconic races culminating with the Great Northern Steeplechase. We can't leave out the flat gallopers as our two year olds and young ones need to be able to go through their paces. We could simply go through history and identify which races in the past (over the period of the next 6 months) were part of the stepping stones to horses that featured in large races later on and promote them better by having a focus on their relevance and educating people about this. Remember, you can't make a stayer a sprinter but you can make a sprinter stay. It's all about training the fast twitch fibre types to have slow twitch characteristics. But I think the main thing is that we need to change quickly at this time. We are in for a rocky road but if we do change NOW, then we might just beat the tide. So first things first, how do we get enough testing kits available to the racing industry participants (28,000) to get going? We need to fund this so let's get the Minister to do something properly and quickly. Let's get a group of racing's warriors to demand a change to the current program so that we survive. Let's take the opportunity to rationalise the current RIB's position and let's not rely on those currently in charge. Let's give any current RIB employee the opportunity to suggest how they would quickly restructure the RIB to enable it to be operational with 50% of the current racing with only an online offering. The brightest and smartest ideas keep their jobs in order to execute. This could be done by issuing a terms of reference document for them to work from. Let's go online and via phones to deliver a superior product quickly. I for one could get a team together to develop everything remotely in respect of the software needed. We could hold industry think tanks that ultimately report to a consensus appointed group who have the final say. This consensus appointed group would be appointed by EVERYONE in an online one person one vote environment. I'm picking this couldn't be any worse that has recently happened with the debacle over the proposed Racing Bill because anyone associated with that isn't really the type of person needed for this initiative. But we need to act now.....and by now I mean now!!! .....and I'm quite serious about this. We were in a mess before.....we were in a mess 20 years ago but no-one listened. Our mess is bigger than we now know....we need to get going...this is a time for a call to arms....set aside weird shit thoughts that we had the liberty to think about before....because our paradigm has just shifted.
  21. Maybe I'm plain dumb but wouldn't this be the answer. 1. Everyone goes into a lockdown for 14 days. No movements, no exceptions. Everyone wears a bracelet similar to criminal tracking. Food stocking managed from day one; 2. APP made for link made to a central database anyone who is in lockdown in order to manage themselves or initially report any symptoms(not just temperature) while in lockdown ; 3. All patients treated remotely at lockdown premises unless chronic and requiring medical assistance 4. All food and services delivered to lockdown premises by either immune people (those who have recovered and are past the infectious stage) or those who have tested negative in three tests while in lockdown. People can volunteer to be tested free in return for helping with services to lockdown people; 5. All service providers required to wear special clothing under specific protocols; 6. Once all people in a single lockdown premises are negative for three tests, then can be released to first help with others and then normal work; 7. Within 14 days we'll have a combination of people being released from their lockdowns within 21 days and people who are completely quarantined; 8. No one comes into the country without being in quarantine for 14 days; 9. When anyone comes into New Zealand, they have to have a lockdown place and need to be in lockdown for 7 days while 3 tests are done. If we did this, then within 30 days we would be free of this virus.
  22. Yes I'm a fan of jumping for betting and the reason why it doesn't exist properly anywhere else around the World other than the UK, France and Japan (yes Japan!!!) is that the pattern isn't there. So if i were to instigate a flat racing program culminating with a series of 5000m championship races, and simultaneously a novice hurdle and steeplechase program, I could start the process. You may not be aware but France and Japan have a series of jump races for 3 and 4 year olds. Does them no harm at all, and in fact is unbelievably popular. and betting is huge. We've lost contact with the community. So if I was to develop a real stayers program, with a series of staying races (3200-4800m races) for 3 and 4 year olds only and they were worth $100,000 each, would you race in them? Four of them a month for 6 months equates to $4.8m. That is 3.2% of the current Petone spend. All we've got to do is take a brave step and restructure Petone. And then towards the end of the 6th month, we create a championship series of 8 races for specialist staying races over slightly different distances and a couple of female races. Those races should be worth $250,000 each. That is equivalent to 1.33% of Petone. Then half way through the end of the flat stayers championships we incorporate a series of novice novice hurdle and steeplechase races for those that want to play that game (3 months with 6 races per weekend worth $100,000) being 4.8% of Petone with a championship of 12 races over 2 days where each race is worth $250,000, being 2% Petone. All of this will cost 11.33% of Petone. Look we're in the shitter for the next 4-5 months anyway. It's winter anyway. We chop Petone down to 75% of what it currently is and we save $35m pa. I would like less than half of that to save an industry during a major downhill ride, which by the way wasn't travelling too flash anyway. Why can we do this? Because we're under duress and in lockdown and are probably technically insolvent under the current stakes structure. That means we can get rid of the dead wood and chop the ridiculous under performing leaches' pay packets right now and renegotiate a bullshit agreement for an under performing FOB platform. By October we can be something that we are not currently.
  23. That may be so but if we were going to look after racing, then we have to start somewhere....or sink....although help may be on its way. Still doesn't change a plan that could be interesting...
  24. Berri

    Help is on its way

    Page 21 says it all https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Hydroxychloroquine_final_DOI_IJAA.pdf