RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.

Peter Harrop

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Everything posted by Peter Harrop

  1. I found it when looking stuff up on youtube. It appears to be of French origin, perhaps found in someones attic over there or something.
  2. I believe the worst offenders in terms of lateness are the thoroughbred clubs in the Canterbury region. Almost always at least a minute late and frequently more.
  3. I believe Freeview coverage is the way to go. Victorian racing will more than likely be in for a windfall here, and the future looks bright for them longterm, if they take up this Channel 7 option. Imagine increasing their potential audience from 20% of the population to 100% in the blink of an eye. Plus all the younger people channel surfing, finding the racing, liking it, and thinking of having a bet or two. Most big punters start off this way, I reckon! It's thinking long-term benefits. Congrats Victorian Racing. Do it!
  4. Every good track favours on pace runners. Always has, always will. When there is a run of on pace runners winning, put it down to statistics. Like tossing a lot of tails in a row on a coin.
  5. Its crazy isnt it? If they only let you bet if youre a losing punter, wheres the incentive to keep using them? Why would anyone use them? Isnt the aim of punting to try and win? Its like asking someone to play monopoly but taking the properties from them as soon as they get a set. Who would want to play that game?
  6. Yes, the whole thread has been kind of Twilight Zonish, given that it took until Post #38 to point that out.
  7. I guess that's true. Somehow we need to entice the likes of the Maygroves and the Farm Boys of this world to aim for the biggest staying race in the country though. But I don't have the answer.
  8. But horse racing is about opinions. Jockey A v Jockey B, Horse A v Horse B, the strength of the Auckland Cup field vs the Avondale Cup. If you dont have opinions or are scared of having them in case you hurt peoples feelings, then you may as well give the game away. I reckon its not a strong field and I will put an asterisk against the winner indicating as such for future reference
  9. Well, the Auckland Cup should be NZ's most sought after race. Any of the following entrants would have made it more worthy of such a tag. Who Shot Thebarman, Mongolian Khan, Silent Achiever, Puccini, Delagos Secret, Costume, Maygrove, Farm Boy, Miss Mossman, Fix (Remember 2nd Derby), Mungo Jerry (at a pinch). And I can keep going if you want It's everyone's dream to win a Melbourne Cup. Should it not be the same for a Kiwi to win the Auckland Cup? The field this year is very weak.
  10. Blimey! Tweets from the Bookies etc with info on what horses are being backed heavily, market movers, big bets and the like is just the kind of thing that adds to my enjoyment of the coverage. I'm for anything that adds to my total betting knowledge before a race. So I like it. It helps drive turnover, I reckon. Can't get enough of it myself.
  11. Not recommended for lighter or heavier wallets alike, I think. Eventually with this system you WILL go bankrupt. Doesnt take many losing bets before the stake becomes so high that either tote odds are slashed to ridiculously low levels after your bet OR the bookies wont accept a bet so large OR you dont have the money and you end up having to steal it.
  12. Pop Quiz : Which is the better bet on fixed odds? A horse paying $1.90 with a 50% chance of winning or a horse paying $51 with a paltry 2% chance of winning?
  13. Then presumably a final, final, final chance. Then a final, final, final, final chance. Then a final, final, final, final, final, final chance .... Man, do you have any idea how dangerous it is to ride in a horse race while high on drugs??
  14. But you're assuming someone with an addiction to drugs behaves rationally. They don't. If say, meth, was the addiction, that person would feel invincible. That's why it's so dangerous if a jockey races against others while on meth.
  15. I can only hope that this is the end of the matter once and for all.
  16. Could they have not put 2 channels on Freeview? That way, the whole country could have enjoyed the coverage, and maybe one or two of them may have been persuaded to have a bet, and come back for more the next week.
  17. Any extra information for punters has gotta be good. Not sure doing them off a TV screen is a good idea though. If theyre going to be done, do them accurately. Otherwise there will be no confidence in them. Good initiative by NZTR to look into this.
  18. It's interesting that some people in this thread are advocating bet365 as some sort of example the NZ TAB should follow. Are you not aware that bet365 has the worst reputation for account closures in Australasia? Their reputation is not only to restrict winning punters, but to close outright, accounts of punters that merely have a sniff of winning. Here is an eye-opening account of how they have been hauled before regulators : http://www.onthepunt.com.au/betting-news/item/607-bet365-hauled-before-regulator.html As for the NZ TAB, up until now I believe they have a good reputation in regards punters who they perceive as winning because I don't think there has been much in the media or on the internet. The danger is if they sink to the level of some of the Oz bookies which could lead to punters being discouraged in giving it a go, if, at the end of it, they know they are going to be heavily restricted or closed down anyway, if they start winning. The reputation will build with repeated episodes and punters will just hold up their collective hands and say, oh stuff this, what's the point? Although I think I read that at least the TAB said it is not their policy to close accounts (unlike some Oz bookies), so that's a plus for them.
  19. I take some convincing that Te Rapa had a frontrunners bias compared to other meetings even though the results heavily favoured front and handy runners. I have the placegetters not quite so handy on the turn overall as Mike Dillon. Race 1 : 4, 5, 7 (ie winner was 4th on turn) Race 2 : 1,3,5 Race 3 : 4 (Won down centre track), 2, 1 Race 4 : 2, 1, 4 Race 5 : 3, 1, 2 Race 6 : 2, 3, 5 Race 7 : 2, 1, 10 (Rattled home down centre track) Race 8 : 1, 4, 3 Point 1 - More horses win from a handy position than coming from the back (hence a back-runners bias is hardly ever mentioned). About 40% of horses win from being in one of the first 3 positions on the turn. Point 2 - Roughly 1 in 1000 meetings (estimate) would have similar statistics to those above, I think, simply by chance, without any bias over other meetings. Who's to say that Te Rapa Saturday just wasn't one of those 1 and 1000 meetings chances? It has to happen sometime. Point 3 - Gesemi came from near last, rocketing home down the outer and was not on the rail at any stage. So, if there is such a horrendous bias, how did this happen? Are we saying that Gesemi was quite some lengths better than the others? Will it win next time? Will it even place ... mmmm? Point 4 - Some of those placegetters were not even on the rail. Addictive Habbit sat 2 and 3 wide most of the trip. Several ran down the straight 4 and 5 horse widths off the rail. Spin Doctor was about 10 widths wide down the straight and caught the leaders quite easily. If Spin Doctor won from that far off the rail, surely there's enough room there for horses from the back to slip through. There may have been a bias. But I need more convincing. If handy runners did well in one race, would anyone notice (considering that happens a lot)? Then why can't that happen 8 races in a row (and not even that strictly happened at Te Rapa). If someone tosses a coin and there are 8 heads in a row, does that mean the coin is biased? mmmm .....
  20. That's a very good point which I hadn't thought of before. With punters being encouraged to get Sky, unwittingly it offers more TV viewing choice. So instead of watching Trackside, they may watch the rugby or league instead.
  21. The problem is, many punters were once just 'TV viewers', including myself. I remember watching Phillip Leishman, Glyn Tucker and Co (I'm giving my age away here) on TV 1 on a Saturday afternoon as a kid. Who knows whether I would be a punter today if it wasn't for being entertained by them? Perhaps I would have been hooked into some other hobby. Plus, most people I know, especially the male ones, channel surf. Thats a problem just there. There is now a 50% less chance that someone will channel surf onto trackside compared to a few days ago.