THEME UPGRADE IN PROGRESS PLEASE BE PATIENT...THANKS EVERYONE
stodge

Stodge Looks South

Recommended Posts

By which I don't mean the card at Brighton or Goodwood, but the Southern Hemisphere and with you lot heading into spring as we head into autumn, I thought I'd offer some thoughts on the European challengers for the big Australian races.

Tomorrow morning (UK), we have the Caulfield Cup over 2400m with plenty of ex-European gallopers on offer. Three Irish and two British trained winners among the 20 runners. Starting with the British, we have DASHING WILLOUGHBY, who is better known over here as a 3200m horse. I was slightly disappointed with him in the Lonsdale but he goes well fresh. The trip remains a concern. No such worries for PRINCE OF ARAN who won the Geelong Cup last year and of course has placed in the last two Melbourne Cups.

He didn't run too badly a certain Enable at Kempton last time - he was beaten 8 lengths but I imagine many of these wouldn't do any better. This may not be his day but I could easily see him running a place.

The three Irish trained runners are headed by ANTHONY VAN DYCK who of course won the English Derby in 2019. He didn't do much after that and it 's often the case the Epsom experience can bottom some horses - only the really good go on from the Downs. This season, he ran well behind GHAIYYATH in the Coronation at Newmarket which was an end-to-end gallop and the soft ground probably didn't help in the Hardwicke. At Longchamp, Mickael Barzalona dictated the pace and the colt quickened up the straight and held off STRADIVARIUS so an Australian-style race wouldn't be a disadvantage at all. The problem is he's been drawn in the car park as we say over here and while that's not insurmountable, it will need all of Mr Bowman's skill.

BUCKHURST is trained by Joseph O'Brien and he's a decent animal and the type who might come on a ton for a change of scenery. He was last of six in the Tattersalls Gold Cup but not beaten far and ran okay when fifth to the Melbourne Cup fancy TIGER MOTH. Is he good enough for this? I don't think so but this time next year might be very different, if he stays in Australia. Finally, we have TRUE SELF who was second in the Geelong Cup last year but didn't make it to Flemington for the big race though he did win a 2600m handicap. He's well weighted and has a good draw - I'd have liked to have seen a better effort in the Ebor but he only has place prospects.

MIRAGE DANCER, MUSTAJEER and RAHEEN HOUSE are just three who plied their trade in the UK before moving Down Under. As to a winner. I can see why VERRY ELLEEGANT is the favourite having led home a Chris Waller 1-2-3 in the Turnbull last time but TOFFEE TONGUE gets 5 lbs and a decent draw and while he was an unconsidered 70/1 outsider, he's 10/1 with the UK bookies and I've had a fiver each way.

At Randwick, we have the Everest which has a first prize of £3,280,423 which is more than twice what the Arc de Triomphe (Europe's richest race) went for. No European runners but as you'd expect for the pot, a seriously good field. BEHEMOTH and GYTRASH are obvious contenders but I like CLASSIQUE LEGEND who didn't enjoy the best of runs in this last year.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice analysis 

Ebor & Hardwicke form isn’t really good enough for down here, even in an average handicap 

Coronation Cup, Derby, Stradivarius .... that’s proper form... read what you will into that 

Minor detail but you may find Toffee Tongue is without a block & tackle 

I note too the track is a bit off, should help your NH jumpers with their round uphill actions 

Of ours Verry Elleegant, Master of Wine & Avilius have wet track actions, and dear old Finche, my favourite wannabe horse, he’s not worth a pie if the track cuts up 

Shame because I feel he’s got a good handicap win in him, on decent ground in a fast run race 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, poundforpound said:

Nice analysis 

Ebor & Hardwicke form isn’t really good enough for down here, even in an average handicap 

Coronation Cup, Derby, Stradivarius .... that’s proper form... read what you will into that 

Minor detail but you may find Toffee Tongue is without a block & tackle 

I note too the track is a bit off, should help your NH jumpers with their round uphill actions 

Of ours Verry Elleegant, Master of Wine & Avilius have wet track actions, and dear old Finche, my favourite wannabe horse, he’s not worth a pie if the track cuts up 

Shame because I feel he’s got a good handicap win in him, on decent ground in a fast run race 

Mirage Dancer couldn't win a Hardwicke last year , he is group 1 down here , Dunaden couldn't win a Hardwicke but won a group 1 down here .

Highland Reel, Red Cadeaux another two who found Hardwicke too hot for them.

As for Caulfield Cup, the  2008 Ebor was abandoned , rescheduled a short while later and won by horse called All the Good , he went ok in 2008 Caulfield Cup .

Avilius,  Master of Wine is ours meaning OZ / NZ , I cannot find any NZ connection with those couple.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh dear ... same games every year, from the same fool

One was nine years ago, the other won a Metrop ( hardly worthy of G1 status any longer I’d have thought although we’ll see if the form is any good today )

Keep backing your NH slugs RR 

As for me using the word “ours”.... I was responding to an informed comment from a genuine NH contributor and I used the word “ours” in the context of resident SH / Australasian horses 

Sorry if it confused your simple little mind 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Caulfield Cup was, as usual, an exciting contest and plenty to consider.

The ground was slower than I had expected.

VERRY ELLEEGANT is clearly a very good mare and in the end she did this well but I can't help but think ANTHONY VAN DYCK would have given her a real race from a better draw. Bowman did his level best with the cards he was dealt but he must have forfeited so much ground running wide especially into the straight but he came home very strongly and giving 8 lbs to the winner isn't a task many horses would be able to take on.

Over a further 800m, who knows? 

PRINCE OF ARRAN ran a huge eye-catching trial for the Melbourne Cup coming home fourth having been out the back much of the way. He'll always be vulnerable to a speed horse but he's likely to be close again in the big one. FINCHE is one I'd like to have a look at if the Flemington turf was quick.

On this evidence, the likes of BUCKHURST, TRUE SELF and DASHING WILLOUGHBY just aren't good enough.

As for the Everest, a scintillating performance by CLASSIQUE LEGEND who looks a seriously good horse. Could they be tempted to come to Ascot next summer?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, poundforpound said:

Why would anyone go to Ascot ?

Middle of our winter, you race $$$$ for a quarter of what Australia does, besides the food is shit, the liquor worse, and everyone is called Nigel or Sebastian 

Can't argue with the prize money - as for the food and drink, it's very pricey but I'm not sure I'd call it "shit".

Some are called Nigel or Sebastian but not many of the women in my experience.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Geelong Cup takes place at breakfast time in the UK tomorrow morning.

A number of ex-European gallopers make their debuts in Australia - SKYWARD is perhaps the most interesting having run fourth to ANTHONY VAN DYCK in the Foy last time. He might be one who will adapt to Australian racing. I can't see SAN HUBERTO being as effective at 2400m as he'll be at 3200m - he was second in the Kergorlay last time and last year was third in the Jockey Club Derby at Belmont which was a fair effort.

LE DON DE VIE ended his European campaign winning a Listed race at Windsor but is that good enough? ASHRUN is a German galloper and he might be one who is improved for some better ground but he's all about stamina as well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fine run by LE DON DE VIE from the front and also by ASHRUN who was doing all his best work late on and will be very interesting in the Cup.

SKYWARD ran okay but faded in the final 150m and he'll need to improve a lot from that and SAN HUBERTO never got involved.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Cox Plate is run at a very early breakfast time (UK) tomorrow morning.

With MAGIC WAND taken out, the European challenge is down to three. ARMORY would be the best of these if you could take his Irish Champion form literally. He was a couple of lengths between multiple Group 1 winners MAGICAL and GHAIYYATH and just in front of the Arc winner SOTTSASS. Take that literally and he wins this but I'm far from convinced. We also know he prefers quicker ground so any rain would be a detriment.

ASPETAR has form on all grounds and he's the most interesting of the remaining European runners. He stays further and won a Group 2 nicely last time at York to put him on a mark of 116 which is borderline European Group 1 so 14/1 looks a big each way price. My slight concern is when he went to Sha Tin last year he ran poorly but at the price and with a decent draw I think he'll be thereabouts against what doesn't look the strongest renewal.

BUCKHURST has come into the race as a reserve. He wasn't beaten far in the Caulfield Cup and beat SIR DRAGONET in a Group 3 earlier this season yet the latter is 10/1 while BUCKHURST is 25/1 so make of that what you will. I'd question any softer ground with him as well.

Of the locals, I think PROBABEEL looks the one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/18/2020 at 4:47 AM, stodge said:

Can't argue with the prize money - as for the food and drink, it's very pricey but I'm not sure I'd call it "shit".

Some are called Nigel or Sebastian but not many of the women in my experience.

 

 

You sure....?! 🤔

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, Houlahan's Dream said:

To be fair....the track played havoc with predictions. It's horse racing....hard to get it right regularly. 

Your analyses of uk scene are must reads. 

Thanks for the kind word, my friend.

I knew rain was "forecast" but if Aussie weather forecasters are as bad as British ones it might have ended up a Good 2.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, stodge said:

Thanks for the kind word, my friend.

I knew rain was "forecast" but if Aussie weather forecasters are as bad as British ones it might have ended up a Good 2.

Looked pretty deep going at Donny and St Cloud Stodge , Van Gogh flew through it for O' Brien . 

Who do you feel  are the better juveniles this year with eye to classics ? 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Red Rum said:

Looked pretty deep going at Donny and St Cloud Stodge , Van Gogh flew through it for O' Brien . 

Who do you feel  are the better juveniles this year with eye to classics ? 

 

Yes, traditional autumn bottomless at both venues.

Despite that. both the Futurity and the Criterium are and have been strong guides to the following year's classics in recent seasons.

It was a pity WEMBLEY was scratched before the Futurity - he is my idea of a Derby horse at 16/1.

The fact they are going 10/1 the field for next May's 2000 Guineas tells you all you need to know - put twenty dollars in my hand and I'd stake it on CHINDIT.

As for the fillies, PRETTY GORGEOUS was convincing at Newmarket and she's 6/1 favourite for the 1000 Guineas.

Beresford winner HIGH DEFINITION is 8/1 favourite for next year's Derby.

Given we may well have much quicker ground next May, CHINDIT may be the one for the 2000 Guineas  - he looked good in the Champagne and hated the ground in the Dewhurst.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, stodge said:

Yes, traditional autumn bottomless at both venues.

Despite that. both the Futurity and the Criterium are and have been strong guides to the following year's classics in recent seasons.

It was a pity WEMBLEY was scratched before the Futurity - he is my idea of a Derby horse at 16/1.

The fact they are going 10/1 the field for next May's 2000 Guineas tells you all you need to know - put twenty dollars in my hand and I'd stake it on CHINDIT.

As for the fillies, PRETTY GORGEOUS was convincing at Newmarket and she's 6/1 favourite for the 1000 Guineas.

Beresford winner HIGH DEFINITION is 8/1 favourite for next year's Derby.

Given we may well have much quicker ground next May, CHINDIT may be the one for the 2000 Guineas  - he looked good in the Champagne and hated the ground in the Dewhurst.

Thanks Stodge, the good jumpers will be out next few weeks but good to look forward to classics .

Looking forward to seeing the HIT sale results , Tatts livestream the sales on you tube . The couple I can see standouts from a scroll through , the wildcard 1153A English King and 714 Nobel Prize , 104 , full brother to Highland Reel , Idaho and Cape Of Good Hope , half brother to Crown Oaks runner up and multiple group place Aussie filly .  He was talked about early as a spring carnival horse , Be interesting what they achieve on open market.

  SD must have cost a packet with Urban Sea sitting a few back on damside. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/25/2020 at 9:08 PM, Red Rum said:

Thanks Stodge, the good jumpers will be out next few weeks but good to look forward to classics .

Looking forward to seeing the HIT sale results , Tatts livestream the sales on you tube . The couple I can see standouts from a scroll through , the wildcard 1153A English King and 714 Nobel Prize , 104 , full brother to Highland Reel , Idaho and Cape Of Good Hope , half brother to Crown Oaks runner up and multiple group place Aussie filly .  He was talked about early as a spring carnival horse , Be interesting what they achieve on open market.

  SD must have cost a packet with Urban Sea sitting a few back on damside. 

NOBEL PRIZE went for 170,000 guineas to John Walsh Bloodstock so could be off anywhere. The two full sisters in France weren't much though.

ENGLISH KING will be popular, of that I've no doubt.

Meanwhile, PONDUS remains in the Bendigo Cup which goes at 5am (UK). It seems a long time since he chased home ADDEYBB at Haydock and to be honest his 4-y-o campaign hasn't set the world on fire so you have to hope a change of scenery will re-vitalise him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, stodge said:

NOBEL PRIZE went for 170,000 guineas to John Walsh Bloodstock so could be off anywhere. The two full sisters in France weren't much though.

ENGLISH KING will be popular, of that I've no doubt.

Meanwhile, PONDUS remains in the Bendigo Cup which goes at 5am (UK). It seems a long time since he chased home ADDEYBB at Haydock and to be honest his 4-y-o campaign hasn't set the world on fire so you have to hope a change of scenery will re-vitalise him.

Keats heading to OZ , 200k guineas to Moroney , Chris Waller spent up decent coin on three or four . 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, Red Rum said:

Keats heading to OZ , 200k guineas to Moroney , Chris Waller spent up decent coin on three or four . 

KEATS hasn't really set the world on fire - rated 106. None of the full brothers and sisters have been world beaters (the best probably ALOOF). The dam, AIRWAVE, of who more in a moment, also threw MEOW though she was by Storm Cat and MEOW was the dam of CHURCHILL having been sent back to Galileo.

AIRWAVE was a class sprinter - she chased home CHOISIR in the 2003 Golden Jubilee and was then third to OASIS DREAM in the July Cup.

However, I remember her debut race at Kempton in August 2002. I used to go racing a lot back then and was a member at Kempton but this looked an average 1200m juvenile fillies maiden. 

AIRWAVE was sent off favourite but finished second - she was beaten by SOVIET SONG who would go on to be a champion miler and the two were five lengths clear of the others  Probably the best fillies' maiden ever run at Kempton. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, stodge said:

KEATS hasn't really set the world on fire - rated 106. None of the full brothers and sisters have been world beaters (the best probably ALOOF). The dam, AIRWAVE, of who more in a moment, also threw MEOW though she was by Storm Cat and MEOW was the dam of CHURCHILL having been sent back to Galileo.

AIRWAVE was a class sprinter - she chased home CHOISIR in the 2003 Golden Jubilee and was then third to OASIS DREAM in the July Cup.

However, I remember her debut race at Kempton in August 2002. I used to go racing a lot back then and was a member at Kempton but this looked an average 1200m juvenile fillies maiden. 

AIRWAVE was sent off favourite but finished second - she was beaten by SOVIET SONG who would go on to be a champion miler and the two were five lengths clear of the others  Probably the best fillies' maiden ever run at Kempton. 

Pondus 104 Stodge , 20 of 21 and beaten out of sight in  Ebor and he carried top weight from outside gate and slightly impeded by horse breaking down in front of him entering back straight,  loops the field wide and misses by a stride to beat an Oaks winner with easy run in transit , the stayers in OZ are not much chop , running to 106 good enough for OZ I would have thought . Only have to look at Mugatoo UK form to see how an also ran up North can improve and take advantage of the weak homegrown stayers OZ produce .

English King heading same stable , converting guineas to pounds to NZD , 1.925 Million . 

 

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/28/2020 at 7:38 PM, Red Rum said:

English King heading same stable , converting guineas to pounds to NZD , 1.925 Million . 

Yes, a serious sale for a serious horse. Could well be a Melbourne Cup contender next year once he acclimatises - rated 111 up here and loves fast ground.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A huge Saturday in Australia with a strong card at Flemington.

ASHRUN runs in the Group 3 Hotham and I thought he ran very well in the Geelong Cup on his Australian debut. Further would suit and he's got a task to give 6 lbs to Cranbourne Cup winner FUTURE SCORE.

ODEUM won the 1000 Guineas last time and could well follow up in the Empire Rose in receipt of a huge amount of weight from the likes of MYSTIC JOURNEY. The Coolmore Stud over 1200m looks a strong renewal - FARNAN would win this back to his best but I prefer WILD RULER.

The Victoria Derby looks wide open - can ALBORADO follow up his win in the Neds Classic when he beat a number of these but he was himself behind YOUNG WERTHER who will be only having his third run.

We'd crawl over broken glass for a £476,000 handicap but the Australians have the Kennedy Cantala and needless to say it's drawn a big field. MR QUICKIE comes off a Toorak Handicap win.

At Rosehill, on soft ground, there's the small matter of £2,169,312.17 on offer for the winner of the Iron Eagle for the 4-y-o over 1500m. Another fiercely trappy heat - I'll put up SIERRA SUE and maybe CRIADERAS as a couple of options.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.