RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
stodge

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10 hours ago, Red Rum said:

Couple of interesting runners at Newbury , Dhahabi a half brother to Golden Horn 3.1 mill guinea yearling won on debut . The race he is  in produces some good horses over the years, used to be the Washington Singer   and Tempus out of Charlton  yard half brother to Time Test looks to have been given plenty of time .

A lot of rain up here as the hot spell ended with heavy storms. Ground at Newbury Good to Soft, Soft in places and the Gosden runner GURU was a late scratching.

Heavy ground at Deauville following enormous amounts of rain in northern France yet fast ground at both Newmarket and York currently.

10 have been entered for Friday's Nunthorpe - BATTAASH is 1/2 to follow up. The promising 3-y-o ART POWER and A'ALI are in but the most interesting is the Wesley Ward-trained 2-y-o GOLDEN PAl, who was runner up in the Norfolk and gets a shedload of weight from the older horses.

More on York next week.

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On 8/15/2020 at 10:21 AM, Red Rum said:

Couple of interesting runners at Newbury , Dhahabi a half brother to Golden Horn 3.1 mill guinea yearling won on debut . The race he is  in produces some good horses over the years, used to be the Washington Singer   and Tempus out of Charlton  yard half brother to Time Test looks to have been given plenty of time .

DHAHABI walked out of the stalls and looked a little one-paced when finishing runner up to the more experienced SAINT LAWRENCE. The ground might not have helped either and he looks a 2400m type for next year.

TEMPUS got the handicap in the stewards room after the original first past the post shifted violently right inside the final 200m. Have to say it was one of the easier ones for the stewards.

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Final declarations are through for Day One of the York Ebor Festival. After heavy weekend rain, the ground has eased to Good and with an unsettled forecast through the week could ease further.

The Juddmonte International over 2000m is Wednesday's feature but just five go to post with the withdrawal of ASPETAR this afternoon. Two 3-y-o take on three older horses. Starting with the youngsters and while the filly ROSE OF KILDARE won the Musidora, she's well behind these on official figures.

KAMEKO has been a frustrating type - he won the Guineas at Newmarket, was fourth in the Derby and an arguably unlucky fourth in the Sussex at Goodwood. With PALACE PIER now looking the top colt miler after yesterday's win at Deauville, KAMEKO has it to prove over 2000m but it's probably his trip. Tactically, Oisin Murphy will have to be a shade more astute than he was at Goodwood.

The three older horses are all in the 120s and are all quality - MAGICAL needs no introduction from me and won the Tattersalls Gold Cup last time. She's mixed it with ENABLE so taking on the boys shouldn't be a problem. She only gets 3 lbs from the colts so has it to do but she is top class and will go close. LORD NORTH came from the Brigadier Gerard to win the Prince of Wales at Ascot and that was a huge step forward putting him right in this.

Finally, we have Coronation Cup and Eclipse winner GHAIYYATH. There was no denying he was superior to ENABLE at Sandown but, as the song goes, that was then and this is now. We know he loves to set the pace and we know he bounces off quick ground. York isn't a bad track for a front runner but these won't give him any rope and I just wonder if any softening of the ground will go against him.

It's a race to savour - no question. Put $10 in my hand and I'd be on MAGICAL at 9/2 simply because you know she will run to the line. IF LORD NORTH goes on again from Ascot he will be very hard to beat while I think both GHAIYYATH and KAMEKO are opposable.

Eight go in the main supporting race - the Voltigeur - over 2400m for the 3-y-o. It's often a Leger trial and of course CROSS COUNTER was placed in it before going onto Flemington. MOGUL won the Gordon Stakes, the equivalent of this race at Goodwood, beating HIGHLAND CHIEF and SUBJECTIVIST and is now perhaps beginning to fulfil some of the lofty ambitions held for him at Coolmore. He's entitled to be favourite but there are plenty of options - BERKSHIRE ROCCO was second to ENGLISH KING at Lingfield and then second to subsequent Irish Derby winner SANTIAGO at Ascot. We know he goes on slow ground and stays every inch of 2400m.

PYLEDRIVER won the King Edward VII at Ascot and was fancied for the Derby but got lost in the confusion that day and ended up eleventh. I suspect he hated the contours of the Downs and the flat Knavesmire will suit so much better. Finally, we have the unbeaten and unexposed DARAIN who has a lot to find on the numbers but who is on the upgrade.

I'm hoping for some rain and if it comes I'll back PYLEDRIVER each way at 12s as I think he's the forgotten horse of the race.

 

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11 hours ago, stodge said:

Final declarations are through for Day One of the York Ebor Festival. After heavy weekend rain, the ground has eased to Good and with an unsettled forecast through the week could ease further.

The Juddmonte International over 2000m is Wednesday's feature but just five go to post with the withdrawal of ASPETAR this afternoon. Two 3-y-o take on three older horses. Starting with the youngsters and while the filly ROSE OF KILDARE won the Musidora, she's well behind these on official figures.

KAMEKO has been a frustrating type - he won the Guineas at Newmarket, was fourth in the Derby and an arguably unlucky fourth in the Sussex at Goodwood. With PALACE PIER now looking the top colt miler after yesterday's win at Deauville, KAMEKO has it to prove over 2000m but it's probably his trip. Tactically, Oisin Murphy will have to be a shade more astute than he was at Goodwood.

The three older horses are all in the 120s and are all quality - MAGICAL needs no introduction from me and won the Tattersalls Gold Cup last time. She's mixed it with ENABLE so taking on the boys shouldn't be a problem. She only gets 3 lbs from the colts so has it to do but she is top class and will go close. LORD NORTH came from the Brigadier Gerard to win the Prince of Wales at Ascot and that was a huge step forward putting him right in this.

Finally, we have Coronation Cup and Eclipse winner GHAIYYATH. There was no denying he was superior to ENABLE at Sandown but, as the song goes, that was then and this is now. We know he loves to set the pace and we know he bounces off quick ground. York isn't a bad track for a front runner but these won't give him any rope and I just wonder if any softening of the ground will go against him.

It's a race to savour - no question. Put $10 in my hand and I'd be on MAGICAL at 9/2 simply because you know she will run to the line. IF LORD NORTH goes on again from Ascot he will be very hard to beat while I think both GHAIYYATH and KAMEKO are opposable.

Eight go in the main supporting race - the Voltigeur - over 2400m for the 3-y-o. It's often a Leger trial and of course CROSS COUNTER was placed in it before going onto Flemington. MOGUL won the Gordon Stakes, the equivalent of this race at Goodwood, beating HIGHLAND CHIEF and SUBJECTIVIST and is now perhaps beginning to fulfil some of the lofty ambitions held for him at Coolmore. He's entitled to be favourite but there are plenty of options - BERKSHIRE ROCCO was second to ENGLISH KING at Lingfield and then second to subsequent Irish Derby winner SANTIAGO at Ascot. We know he goes on slow ground and stays every inch of 2400m.

PYLEDRIVER won the King Edward VII at Ascot and was fancied for the Derby but got lost in the confusion that day and ended up eleventh. I suspect he hated the contours of the Downs and the flat Knavesmire will suit so much better. Finally, we have the unbeaten and unexposed DARAIN who has a lot to find on the numbers but who is on the upgrade.

I'm hoping for some rain and if it comes I'll back PYLEDRIVER each way at 12s as I think he's the forgotten horse of the race.

 

Ebor looks a right puzzle as usual Stodge  , I see Phoenix have Deja in . Jockey booked but they have banned themselves from UK now , and Jojo Rabbit couldn't run in France due to French ban so be interesting to see if he lines up . Australian Bloodstock got one in but I am drawn to bit each way Fox Vardy at 16s at moment . Will wait until closer to weekend as won't go much shorter .

Cost a bit Darain so he needs to pick up a Group race .

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Starting the weekend look-back with Saturday's action.

At Deauville, the ground was Heavy after a deluge of rain but that didn't stop MISHRIFF following up his Jockey Club success with an even more emphatic win in the Guillaume D'Ornano slamming THE SUMMIT by four and a half lengths with VICTOR LUDORUM, who again looked a non-stayer over 2000m, back in third. MISHRIFF has proved himself very good at the trip and it'll be interesting to see where connections go next - the Irish Champion perhaps although they might be tempted to try 2400m though I'd be doubtful on breeding.

On the same card, the 2019 Jockey Club winner SOTTSASS came up a neck short to SKALLETI in the Gontaut Biron and I'm just doubtful if he's quite as good as he was. SKALLETI is a solid Group 2 performer but has never run in a Group 1.

At Newbury, the ground had also been softened by rain and DREAM OF DREAMS absolutely hosed up in the Hungerford winning by seven lengths. This was a very impressive performance from a horse who has twice finished second in the Diamond Jubilee at Ascot and was second in this back in 2018. He's been a bit inconsistent on occasions but if they've found the secret with him he could be a real threat to SPACE BLUES over 1400m and there's no reason why he couldn't get the 1600m on breeding.

At Saratoga, SWISS SKYDIVER booked a Kentucky Oaks match up with GAMINE with a smooth win in the Alabama - connections had thought of taking on the colts in the Derby but TIZ THE LAW's hugely impressive win in the Travers has convinced them to stay with her own gender.

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York starts tomorrow with the ground Good, Good to Soft in places and more rain forecast.

I've already chewed over tomorrow's big races - the final declarations are through for Thursday.

Six stand in the Yorkshire Oaks over 2400m and LOVE is 2/5 favourite to follow up her Guineas and Oaks success and it looks a brave move to oppose her. ONE VOICE was a good second to FANCY BLUE in the Nassau and for me has much better form than FRANCONIA from the Gosden yard - indeed, 9/1 for ONE VOICE might be a decent bet were it not for the numbers.

FRANKLY DARLING won the Ribblesdale but was no match for LOVE at Epsom while MANUELA DE VEGA is in great form and won the Lancashire Oaks last time, she'll need a lot more rain to have a chance against LOVE.

14 go in the Group 2 Lowther over 1200m for the juvenile fillies and it's fair to say the hierarchy in that division is a long way from revolution. Ante post favourite is Queen Mary runner up SACRED who had looked good on debut but this is an extra 200m. SANTOSHA won the Princess Margaret at Ascot after running a close third in the Duchess of Cambridge.

SUSSEX GARDEN represents Jessica Harrington but she was well held at Naas last time behind MOTHER EARTH who was herself behind ALOHA STAR at The Curragh last weekend so that ties through to the best of the Irish juvenile form.

UMM KULTHUM and NOORBAN are 1-1 but they won small northern maidens on debut and most years you wouldn't think that anywhere good enough.

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11 hours ago, Red Rum said:

Ebor looks a right puzzle as usual Stodge  , I see Phoenix have Deja in . Jockey booked but they have banned themselves from UK now , and Jojo Rabbit couldn't run in France due to French ban so be interesting to see if he lines up . Australian Bloodstock got one in but I am drawn to bit each way Fox Vardy at 16s at moment . Will wait until closer to weekend as won't go much shorter .

Cost a bit Darain so he needs to pick up a Group race .

Thank you, Rummy, for the nice link into the early news on Saturday.

York stages the final day of the Ebor meeting and the feature Group 2 is the City of York Stakes over 1400m and someone will have to explain to me why two Group 2 1400m races are being run on consecutive weekends - it's a disappointing bit of scheduling as far as I can see. A number of those who ran in the Hungerford have been entered but ONE MASTER was never considered for Newbury and she stands out on Foret form.

The Ebor is down to a £140k first prize but 43 have been entered. Unfortunately, FOX VARDY is number 41 so needs 19  to come out to get a run but if you miss the cut you'll get your stake back.

FUJAIRA PRINCE won the Copper House Handicap at Ascot convincingly and among those in his week that day was SHAILENE but I thought the latter ran a blinder at Goodwood three weeks ago and looks worth a look at 16s especially with a bookie paying down to five or six places.

In Ireland on Saturday, there are two Group 2 races at The Curragh as the build up starts towards Irish Champions Weekend in three and a half weeks. The Debutante and the Galileo are trials for the Moyglare and the National respectively. The ground at The Curragh is currently Yielding and 15 juvenile fillies have been entered for the Debutante including MOTHER EARTH (see previous). The Galileo has 18 entries with seven from Aidan O'Brien so we'll leave those until Thursday.

Deauville continues over the weekend with the Nonette for the staying fillies on Saturday and a stellar card on Sunday featuring two Group 1 races and two Group 2 events. The Group 1 races are the Morny for the juveniles over 1200m - 18 have been entered, 11 colts and 7 fillies and it looks a strong race at this stage featuring the Queen Mary winner CAMPANELLE and the very food colts SUPREMACY and TACTICAL. There's also the Romanet for the fillies over 2000m - 23 have been entered and I'll look more closely at these races later in the week.

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THe first at York this morning. i.e. the 1.45

Jonah Jones..... disappointed last time but big horse can finish best if not held up. Currently $15.00

From Ed Walker the trainer......

"Jonah Jones is really fresh and well in himself at the moment and I’ve been very happy with him lately. As you know we injected his knees after York, I hope we will see a massive improvement in his form today with the ground being to his liking. I think he is drawn well as there are some fancied horse around him, but really with these Sprint Handicaps you never really know whether you are drawn well or not until after the event."

NB. Ed Walker also rates his other horse in the race.

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22 minutes ago, slam dunk said:

THe first at York this morning. i.e. the 1.45

Jonah Jones..... disappointed last time but big horse can finish best if not held up. Currently $15.00

From Ed Walker the trainer......

"Jonah Jones is really fresh and well in himself at the moment and I’ve been very happy with him lately. As you know we injected his knees after York, I hope we will see a massive improvement in his form today with the ground being to his liking. I think he is drawn well as there are some fancied horse around him, but really with these Sprint Handicaps you never really know whether you are drawn well or not until after the event."

NB. Ed Walker also rates his other horse in the race.

Good trainer Ed Walker , travelled that Rustcello or similar named horse out to win Lexus few years back and got decent one called Stormy Atlantic that gets out and about with his passport all over picking up prize money. 

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Before we talk matters York, a final look back at last weekend.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NITlazX16wI

The Marois was run on heavy ground at Deauville but it was a huge win for the 3-y-o with PALACE PIER coming home three quarters of a length in front of my old friend ALPINE STAR thus saving my each way croissant at 6/1. He was always travelling well but she wasn't being the first off the bridle but the two cleared away from some smart performers and I'd rate both very highly. PALACE PIER is certainly the best 3-y-o colt miler but ALPINE STAR has the small issue of LOVE in her generation. The Marois also suggests there's very little between the 3-y-o colts and fillies at this trip though I'd put LOVE well in front of the colts at this time.

The older horses were put firmly in their place though CIRCUS MAXIMUS ran his usual genuine race in third in front of the disappointing PERSIAN KING and ROMANISED. 

I presume next stop for the winner will be the Moulin while the filly could go for the Matron at The Curragh.

 

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Final declarations through for Friday at York.

Eight go in the Group 1 Nunthorpe over 1000m for which BATTAASH is 1/2 favourite and that can't be a surprise on form. The only worry might be really slow ground while the two 3-y-o ART POWER and A'ALI are obviously speedy types they don't have Group 1 form and that means they have a lot to do against one of the best sprinters of recent times.

The Group 2 features are the Lonsdale over 3200m and the Gimcrack over 1200m. With no STRADIVARIUS,  the Lonsdale looks wide open - ENBIHAAR looked very good in the Lillie Langtry at Goodwood but she loves fast ground and I would oppose her if the Knavesmire turned soft. NAYEF ROAD has no ground worries and for all he was beaten nine lengths in the Gold Cup he got much closer to STRADIVARIUS at Goodwood and he is a confident choice.

He holds EAGLES BY DAY on Goodwood running and for all DASHING WILLOUGHBY is unbeaten this season I just think he would prefer a sounder surface though I don't underestimate him. WITHHOLD won a Northumberland Plate and returned to form at Newmarket in a small race last time but neither he or the jumper STRATUM look good enough.

Ten go in the Gimcrack and the 2-y-o form remains difficult to evaluate. The problem here is going to be the unknown of slow ground. Both MINZAAL and MOHAIR KING bounced off quick ground on their recent wins and on a firm surface would be the obvious fancies but I'm less convinced. The best form is probably with YAZAMAN who was beaten by TACTICAL at Newmarket and was well held by SUPREMACY in the Richmond at Goodwood. He has obvious claims.

UBETTERBELIEVEIT has won twice at 1000m so the trip is a query while MYSTERY SMILES has won a couple of small races.

At a bigger price I prefer LAUDED who was only just behind YAZAMAN at Goodwood having previously run seventh in the Coventry which wasn't bad. He's available at 11s so may be worth the proverbial each way play.

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On 8/18/2020 at 7:02 AM, stodge said:

Final declarations are through for Day One of the York Ebor Festival. After heavy weekend rain, the ground has eased to Good and with an unsettled forecast through the week could ease further.

The Juddmonte International over 2000m is Wednesday's feature but just five go to post with the withdrawal of ASPETAR this afternoon. Two 3-y-o take on three older horses. Starting with the youngsters and while the filly ROSE OF KILDARE won the Musidora, she's well behind these on official figures.

KAMEKO has been a frustrating type - he won the Guineas at Newmarket, was fourth in the Derby and an arguably unlucky fourth in the Sussex at Goodwood. With PALACE PIER now looking the top colt miler after yesterday's win at Deauville, KAMEKO has it to prove over 2000m but it's probably his trip. Tactically, Oisin Murphy will have to be a shade more astute than he was at Goodwood.

The three older horses are all in the 120s and are all quality - MAGICAL needs no introduction from me and won the Tattersalls Gold Cup last time. She's mixed it with ENABLE so taking on the boys shouldn't be a problem. She only gets 3 lbs from the colts so has it to do but she is top class and will go close. LORD NORTH came from the Brigadier Gerard to win the Prince of Wales at Ascot and that was a huge step forward putting him right in this.

Finally, we have Coronation Cup and Eclipse winner GHAIYYATH. There was no denying he was superior to ENABLE at Sandown but, as the song goes, that was then and this is now. We know he loves to set the pace and we know he bounces off quick ground. York isn't a bad track for a front runner but these won't give him any rope and I just wonder if any softening of the ground will go against him.

It's a race to savour - no question. Put $10 in my hand and I'd be on MAGICAL at 9/2 simply because you know she will run to the line. IF LORD NORTH goes on again from Ascot he will be very hard to beat while I think both GHAIYYATH and KAMEKO are opposable.

Eight go in the main supporting race - the Voltigeur - over 2400m for the 3-y-o. It's often a Leger trial and of course CROSS COUNTER was placed in it before going onto Flemington. MOGUL won the Gordon Stakes, the equivalent of this race at Goodwood, beating HIGHLAND CHIEF and SUBJECTIVIST and is now perhaps beginning to fulfil some of the lofty ambitions held for him at Coolmore. He's entitled to be favourite but there are plenty of options - BERKSHIRE ROCCO was second to ENGLISH KING at Lingfield and then second to subsequent Irish Derby winner SANTIAGO at Ascot. We know he goes on slow ground and stays every inch of 2400m.

PYLEDRIVER won the King Edward VII at Ascot and was fancied for the Derby but got lost in the confusion that day and ended up eleventh. I suspect he hated the contours of the Downs and the flat Knavesmire will suit so much better. Finally, we have the unbeaten and unexposed DARAIN who has a lot to find on the numbers but who is on the upgrade.

I'm hoping for some rain and if it comes I'll back PYLEDRIVER each way at 12s as I think he's the forgotten horse of the race.

 

Hope you stuck with Pyledriver , good effort .

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On 8/19/2020 at 6:15 PM, Red Rum said:

Hope you stuck with Pyledriver , good effort .

You better believe it, I managed to get £10 each way at 12s so a very satisfactory outcome and made up for MAGICAL missing out (I had £20 on her at 5/2) and a small £5 each way saver on JUAN ELCANO (suggested somewhere else!) 

Just under £100 up for the first day so a cracking start.

 

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Final declarations are through for Saturday's racing.

Nine go in the Group 2 City of York Stakes over 1400m  and it's a solid field (ratings from 107 to 114). Favourite is the Foret winner ONE MASTER for whom the trip and ground look ideal. The 1600m of the Falmouth was just too much and she needed every inch of the sharp 1400m at Goodwood last time so this will be ideal on slower ground.

SAFE VOYAGE was fourth to SPACE BLUES in the Lennox last time and that's serious form with the latter going on to win a Group 1 at Deauville next time. SAN DONATO is very lightly raced - he had only one run as a 3-y-o but that was a third in the Poulains and this year he's gone up against MOHAATHER twice at Ascot and Goodwood. The drop back in trip is interesting but I always prefer the 1400m specialists. THREAT was taken out of the Hungerford last Saturday because the ground had eased - he didn't do much last time and has plenty to prove.

While I really respect ONE MASTER, I'm going to give SAFE VOYAGE a chance to continue his upward path - he's hovering around 9/2 and 5/1.

In Ireland, the ground at The Curragh is yielding. Eight go in the Group 2 Debutante for the juvenile fillies. Five of the eight are trained by the O'Brien clan - Aidan has three including MOTHER EARTH, Joseph has one while Donnacha runs the top-rated SHALE who won the Silver Flash at Leopardstown last time. The logical progression for the Irish fillies is the Silver Flash, the Debutante and then the Moyglare so we'll see.

The route for the colts is the Tyros, the Futurity and the National Stakes and Tyros winner MILITARY STYLE looks to have a big chance in the Galileo Futurity but the horse he beat in the Tyros, stable companion VAN GOGH, could well reverse places. 

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The first day at York's Ebor Festival took place on ground described as Good, Good to Soft in places but rain started to fall during the first and while it wasn't torrential it was persistent.

The feature on Day One was the Juddmonte International:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0GC8eUdDp2Q

No denying, this was an impressive front running performance by GHAIYYATH - I thought Buick taking him up the centre of the track and avoiding eyeballing MAGICAL was a shrewd move. GHAIYYATH has such strong mid-race and tactical speed, he quickened fully 700m down but still had enough to see the race out.

MAGICAL hit a flat spot and lost second briefly to KAMEKO but she's one of the toughest around and battled back for second as KAMEKO's stamina gave out. LORD NORTH got third in the final 50m but never got involved in the race.

So do they take GHAIYYATH to the Arc to take on LOVE and ENABLE? Much will depend on whether he gets an uncontested lead in Paris which seems unlikely. MAGICAL ran really well in defeat - she's been beaten by ENABLE so on a line through her GHAIYYATH is the best around currently over 2000m but at 2400m? KAMEKO will, I suspect, go back to 1600m after this. I wonder if LORD NORTH will go for the Irish Champion next month. He ran a decent race and, to be fair, this is as good as it gets and to come up slightly short in this company is no disgrace whatsoever.

I've already mentioned the Voltigeur and a huge win for PYLEDRIVER who laid the ghost of a disastrous experience at Epsom firmly to rest. He's been backed for the Leger though Martin Dwyer, the jockey, thought he had enough speed to win at 2000m. I think the owners will go to Doncaster rather than try to swim with the sharks in the Arc and he must have a big chance. It was a fine tactical ride by Dwyer and they have to be respected and PYLEDRIVER is generally 5/1 with the English bookies for Doncaster.

HIGHLAND CHIEF, another for whom Epsom didn't go well, ran a fine race in second and I just wonder if the rain had turned the ground against MOGUL who really bounced off the fast ground at Goodwood but looked rather one-paced here.

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More detail on the weekend's racing in this part of the world.

Two Group 2 races at Deauville tomorrow where the ground has improved to Very Soft. The Nonette is over 2000m for the 3-y-o fillies and clear favourite is the unbeaten TAWKEEL who was a runaway winner of the Saint Alary last time. If she can reproduce that form she'll win this. Fabre runs two and SOLSTICIA was third in the Saint Alary and seventh in the Diane while ALKANDORA was beaten in a Group 3 last time and will have to improve.

Eight go in the Calvados for the juvenile fillies over 1400m. Not sure how strong a field this is in all honesty - Frankie Dettori has missed York and has ridden in France all week. He's on NO SPEAK ALEXANDER for Jessica Harrington who bolted up on heavy ground at Roscommon in a maiden last time so this is a big jump. FEV ROVER was second to DANDALLA in the Duchess of Cambridge and followed up in a Listed at Sandown. She's favourite and deservedly so especially as the local challengers are either coming out of Parisian maidens or from the provinces.

In America, the feature is the Pacific Classic at the gorgeous Del Mar racetrack just up the coast from San Diego. MAXIMUM SECURITY won the inaugural Saudi Cup at the end of January but didn't impress last time scrambling home in a handicap over course and distance. I'm sure he'll be much better and should confirm placings with MIDCOURT and HIGHER POWER.

On to Sunday and an excellent card at Deauville which marks the climax of the August Festival. Nine go in the Morny for the juveniles and while CAMPANELLE was good in the Queen Mary, I'm always wary of these American types on really slow turf. TACTICAL handled soft ground at Newmarket and has the best form while we will find out whether NANDO PERRADO's win in the Coventry was a fluke or a brilliant piece of training. At 7/1 he represents a bit of value against TACTICAL given his trainer Clive Cox is an excellent handler of these speedy juveniles.

Twelve go in the Romanet but NAZEEF has far and away the best form having tasted Group 1 success in the Falmouth. She was beaten in the Nassau when not getting an ideal run and while I've a doubt about her over the trip on this ground it won't be an end-to-end gallop and I think Frankie Dettori will be in his element sitting off the pace and coming through late on. 

The Group 2 Kergorlay over 3000m is a real test. Plenty of these meet regularly in these French staying races. RED VERDON won the Maurice de Nieuil at Longchamp while SAN HUBERTO was third that time having previously beaten CALL THE WIND in the Vicontesse Vigier. I don't know - CALL THE WIND is a tentative selection.

Finally we have the Pomone for the staying fillies over 2400m and this is a trial for the Vermeille next month. The sole 3-y-o EBAIYRA is from one of those wonderful staying families from which the Aga Khan does so well. She got going too late in a muddling Diane and this will be much more to her liking.

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13 hours ago, stodge said:

More detail on the weekend's racing in this part of the world.

Two Group 2 races at Deauville tomorrow where the ground has improved to Very Soft. The Nonette is over 2000m for the 3-y-o fillies and clear favourite is the unbeaten TAWKEEL who was a runaway winner of the Saint Alary last time. If she can reproduce that form she'll win this. Fabre runs two and SOLSTICIA was third in the Saint Alary and seventh in the Diane while ALKANDORA was beaten in a Group 3 last time and will have to improve.

Eight go in the Calvados for the juvenile fillies over 1400m. Not sure how strong a field this is in all honesty - Frankie Dettori has missed York and has ridden in France all week. He's on NO SPEAK ALEXANDER for Jessica Harrington who bolted up on heavy ground at Roscommon in a maiden last time so this is a big jump. FEV ROVER was second to DANDALLA in the Duchess of Cambridge and followed up in a Listed at Sandown. She's favourite and deservedly so especially as the local challengers are either coming out of Parisian maidens or from the provinces.

In America, the feature is the Pacific Classic at the gorgeous Del Mar racetrack just up the coast from San Diego. MAXIMUM SECURITY won the inaugural Saudi Cup at the end of January but didn't impress last time scrambling home in a handicap over course and distance. I'm sure he'll be much better and should confirm placings with MIDCOURT and HIGHER POWER.

On to Sunday and an excellent card at Deauville which marks the climax of the August Festival. Nine go in the Morny for the juveniles and while CAMPANELLE was good in the Queen Mary, I'm always wary of these American types on really slow turf. TACTICAL handled soft ground at Newmarket and has the best form while we will find out whether NANDO PERRADO's win in the Coventry was a fluke or a brilliant piece of training. At 7/1 he represents a bit of value against TACTICAL given his trainer Clive Cox is an excellent handler of these speedy juveniles.

Twelve go in the Romanet but NAZEEF has far and away the best form having tasted Group 1 success in the Falmouth. She was beaten in the Nassau when not getting an ideal run and while I've a doubt about her over the trip on this ground it won't be an end-to-end gallop and I think Frankie Dettori will be in his element sitting off the pace and coming through late on. 

The Group 2 Kergorlay over 3000m is a real test. Plenty of these meet regularly in these French staying races. RED VERDON won the Maurice de Nieuil at Longchamp while SAN HUBERTO was third that time having previously beaten CALL THE WIND in the Vicontesse Vigier. I don't know - CALL THE WIND is a tentative selection.

Finally we have the Pomone for the staying fillies over 2400m and this is a trial for the Vermeille next month. The sole 3-y-o EBAIYRA is from one of those wonderful staying families from which the Aga Khan does so well. She got going too late in a muddling Diane and this will be much more to her liking.

Collide worth watching in Kegorley for future racing here , Kris Lees has him for Spring according to Plate entries.  Another ex Juddmonte Frankel horse in Plate entries heading out to Newnham yard Weekender . Decent stayer for Gosden .

I am on Pablo Escobar ew in Ebor .

 

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4 hours ago, Red Rum said:

Collide worth watching in Kegorley for future racing here , Kris Lees has him for Spring according to Plate entries.  Another ex Juddmonte Frankel horse in Plate entries heading out to Newnham yard Weekender . Decent stayer for Gosden .

I am on Pablo Escobar ew in Ebor .

 

Yes, if FUJAIRA PRINCE wins the Ebor, it'll be a boost to COLLIDE who was eight lengths behind him in the Ascot handicap.

Oddly enough, WEEKENDER was beaten a long way in last year's Ebor having run second in the race in 2018. He hasn't run since a second on the all weather at Chelmsford back in March. He looks a stayer to me and I'm not sure about the Cox Plate.

Aidan O'Brien had entered 13 including MAGICAL while Donnacha and Joseph have also both made entries.

 

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Looking back to the second day at York and after the disappointing weather of day one, much better conditions and the ground dried throughout the afternoon.

The feature was the Yorkshire Oaks over 2400m for the fillies and mares:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=poW0kj4ZRho

This was a visually hugely impressive performance by LOVE. Ryan Moore never got anything like serious on her and she won as she was entitled to and while PALACE PIER has performed well at 1600m, LOVE is for me the top 3-y-o running up here currently. She will go for the Arc for which she is now second favourite behind ENABLE and in front of GHAIYYATH and if they all turn up in Paris in early October, it will be, as it should be, the top race of the European season.

I was visually reminded of ENABLE's romp in the 2017 Yorkshire Oaks and LOVE will be in receipt of 7 lbs from ENABLE and 10 lbs from GHAIYYATH in Paris and you'd have to think that could be significant.

The Group 2 Lowther went to MISS AMULET who was able to hold the late run of SACRED who perhaps didn't quite see out the 1200m on the dead ground. SANTOSHA lost her race by falling out of the stalls and losing lengths on the others. The first two were nicely clear of the others but I'm not sure we know much more about the juvenile fillies.

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Day Three at York and the weather had once again turned inclement with frequent squally showers and a very strong wind blowing across and behind the runners in the straight. The ground was Good to Soft by the end of the day.

The feature was the Group 1 Nunthorpe over 1000m, one of only two Group 1 races in the UK over the minimum trip (the other is the King's Stand at Ascot).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGaQ_K0YG3s

BATTAASH got there in the end but this was an unconvincing display from the 4/9 shot who seemed ill at ease on the ground. QUE AMORO was getting 3lbs from the winner but is rated 104 while BATTAASH is at 126 and with MOSS GILL in third running close to the form he and QUE AMORO had shown in a Listed race over course and distance in mid July, the only conclusion I can draw is BATTAASH ran at least a stone if not more below form. He's won on soft before but the wet ground didn't help - even so, this was a lacklustre display from the horse.

Presumably, he'll head to Paris for the Abbaye (geldings can run in that French Group 1) but a number will fancy their chances against him especially if it comes up soft or heavy. QUE AMORO ran a huge race in defeat as did MOSS GILL in third but the two 3-y-o, A'ALI and ART POWER were both very disappointing.

The Group 2 supporting races were very interesting. The Lonsdale for the stayers saw the mare ENBIHAAR beat the boys as she saw out the 3200m well as she had always threatened so to do. The obvious target for her is the Royallieu over 2800m for the fillies and mares. STRATUM, who's a decent hurdler on his day, ran a fine race in second while NAYEF ROAD seemed not to have the pace for 3200m  and I'd love to see him over 3600m on better ground at Doncaster.

Looking further afield, I have to say DASHING WILLOUGHBY didn't do much and WITHHOLD's limitations at Group level were once again.

The Gimcrack is a traditional Yorkshire race for the juveniles over 1200m. To be fair, Gimcrack himself only ran twice at York and was beaten on both occasions but the club set up in his name had its first meeting at York and the annual Gimcrack Dinner gives the winning Owner a platform to vent on anything to do with racing. I suspect there'll be nothing too controversial from Angus Gold, racing manager for Sheikh Hamdan-al-Maktoum but he has a lot to consider regarding the future of MINZAAL who did this in style.

He had won easily at Salisbury on his previous outing but took to the slower ground and better class without any problem and indeed Jim Crowley rode an excellent race, missing the break and allowing the others to do the work before coming through with 300m to go and easing away to win two lengths. He's a son of freshman sire Mehmas who won the July Stakes and the Richmond as a juvenile but was retired at the end of his juvenile campaign so we'll have to wait to next year to see if progeny like MINZAAL or SUPREMACY are classic contenders or just precocious juveniles.

The previously unbeaten horses DEVILWALA and MYSTERY SMILES (another son of Mehmas) were second and third and the former looks a really nice prospect.

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I'm still catching up the weekend's racing but sad news today Sussex Stakes winner MOHAATHER has been retired owing to significant bone bruising to his near-hind fetlock. He's obviously a potentially valuable stallion prospect but it would have been nice to have seen him take on PALACE PIER in the Moulin or at Ascot. He was SHOWCASING's most successful son up here and to be fair the stallion has also produced Group 1 performers in ADVERTISE, QUIET REFLECTION and TASLEET so he's done very well as a stallion.

It will be fascinating to see if MOHAATHER's progeny can carry that forward.

Looking ahead to the coming weekend and as you might expect it's not too busy up here - the main meeting is at Goodwood where the ground is currently Soft after plenty of rain. 12 have been entered for the Group 2 Celebration Mile on Saturday and REGAL REALITY, who had a nice confidence-boosting win in lower grade at Salisbury last time, is favourite over BENBATL, who got to within two lengths of WINX in the 2018 Cox Plate and was last time third to MAXIMUM SECURITY in the Saudi Cup after wins in Group 2 company on grass and dirt in Dubai. He's a class act on his day but I'm less convinced soft ground works for him. POSITIVE and DUKE OF HAZZARD were well behind REGAL REALITY at Salisbury but the latter in particular goes well on slower turf.

The Deauville August meeting closes on a low-key note with a two-day meeting over the weekend. The feature is the Group 2 Grand Prix de Deauville over 2500m. 20 early entries have been made including ASPETAR who was a late withdrawal from the Juddmonte last week.

 

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"While I really respect ONE MASTER, I'm going to give SAFE VOYAGE a chance to continue his upward path - he's hovering around 9/2 and 5/1."

Yep, that's what I said last Thursday and for those who have the stupidity to follow my inane nonsense, a nice winner.

The final day at York took place on Soft ground as the course was again battered by heavy squally showers which plagued three of the four days.

The feature City of York Stakes saw SAFE VOYAGE throw his hat into the 1400m division which looks incredibly strong currently. He saw off ONE MASTER who ran another good race but as she showed at Goodwood, 1400m is getting short for her and I think she's a 1600m mare as she showed in the Falmouth. SAFE VOYAGE had no luck behind SPACE BLUES in the Lennox but even with a clear run I think he'd have been second best. 

To be fair, SAFE VOYAGE ran a fine third in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on Champions Day last year and if it came up soft or heavy at Ascot, he'd be worth an each way punt though PALACE PIER, in the sad absence of MOHAATHER, is going to be a short priced favourite to bring home the bacon (perhaps with some chips and a couple of fried eggs as well).

The Ebor went to FUJAIRA PRINCE and almost immediately Greg Carpenter was on the tv (via Zoom from Melbourne I presume) to basically invite connections to have a go at the Cup. The problem is FUJAIRA PRINCE is very fragile and as a Pivotal, is always going to prefer softer turf. If you could guarantee a soft or heavy track at Flemington, he'd have a chance but connections don't sound keen and he may well try the stayers race at Champions Day.

GLENCADAM GLORY ran a blinder in second having been up with the pace all the way and he'll be back for the Ebor next year but the one from the race which is in my notebook is MONICA SHERIFF who was having her first run for 301 days and ran a fine fourth having tracked the second through and just getting tired in the final 150m.

Deauville on Saturday had a couple of interesting Group 2 races - the ground was Very Soft and TAWKEEL made hard work of landing the odds in the Nonette but she toughed it out and I imagine the Vermeille or the Opera will be the next step - if it came up quick at Longchamp she'd have a leading chance in either race. In a quieter year, she'd be an Arc contender but this year's renewal looks very strong. The Calvados for the juveniles saw British raider FEV ROVER grab the prize against what I thought was weak local opposition. 

At the gorgeous Del Mar racecourse just up the coast from San Diego, Saudi Cup winner MAXIMUM SECURITY looked a much fitter and better horse when running out a comfortable winner of the Pacific Classic. I thought SHARP SAMURAI ran well in second but the winner is on course for the Breeders Cup and presumably a return visit to Riyadh.

 

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In my rush to catch up with Saturday's racing, I forgot to mention the two Irish Group 2 races at The Curragh for the juveniles. They were run on Soft ground following overnight and morning showers.

The Debutante for the fillies saw PRETTY GORGEOUS comprehensively reverse Silver Flash form with SHALE winning well and she looks a nice prospect. No surprise as she is a daughter of Lawman that she enjoyed the softer turf and on such conditions she is obviously very good. SHALE ran well and I'd love to see her back on quicker ground.

The Galileo saw a minor surprise as MAC SWINNEY, who was well held in the Tyros, reverse places with the better fancied runners from that race. He was always close to the pace and this home bred son of New Approach showed plenty of determination to hold off the late challenge of CADILLAC and to overhaul ONTARIO on whom Padraic Beggy had appeared to have made a decisive move 400m out but it didn't quite work. CADILLAC had won his maiden by nine lengths at Leopardstown and I thought this son of Lope de Vega would follow up here but it all happened too quickly and he ran home very strongly  You'd think on breeding 1600m would be the optimum but the dam is related to Sadler's Wells so he might get 2000m and could be a really nice prospect.

On then to Deauville on Sunday and a stellar card to not complete the traditional August Festival. The ground had dried to Soft but I thought it would be against CAMPANELLE in the Morny for the juveniles over 1200m.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P20gez54WD4

Well, I got it wrong in spades, didn't I? To be honest, Frankie got a soft lead on the filly and that enabled him to hold her kick in reserve but she seemed perfectly fine on the ground and she's clearly very good. NANDO PERRADO, the Coventry winner, ran a decent race in defeat and I know the Fahey team think a lot of RHYTHM MASTER who ran well in third. The time suggested the ground was quicker than the official report but for all that TACTICAL was disappointing. Once again, the British and Americans have put the locals to the sword in the juvenile division and it's curious given France resumed three weeks before Britain to see their juveniles seemingly miles behind the British.

On then to the Jean Romanet over 2000m for the fillies and mares and another British raider but not the one you (and indeed I) might have expected:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PXubIkJweHM

This was what they call a "right turn up". NAZEEF was hugely disappointing - she was beaten 500m out. AUDARYA was 48/1 in France and 33/1 with the UK bookies. She had carried top weight to victory in a Newcastle handicap but was running here off 99 which is barely Listed let alone Group 1 level. The second had won the Corrida at Lyon-Parilly over 2100m last time so you knew she was going to stay and was coming back at the winner before the end but I'm genuinely puzzled by this race - perhaps the winner is improving fast and maybe we''ll see her in the Matron or the Sun Chariot.

With three late scratchings including GET SHIRTY and RED VERDON, the Kergorlay was a slightly depleted event but CALL THE WIND returned to form with a fine win beating the German colt ASHRUN. The winner had been beaten in this last year by MARMELO before running second in the Cadran and winning the Royal Oak and I imagine that will be the plan again. He was disappointing when beaten in the Vicomtesse Vigier by GET SHIRTY so a rematch later will be interesting.

Finally we have the Pomone for the staying fillies over 2400m and this is a trial for the Vermeille next month. The sole 3-y-o EBAIYRA is from one of those wonderful staying families from which the Aga Khan does so well. She got going too late in a muddling Diane and this will be much more to her liking.

Having done my conkers on TACTICAL in the Morny, I managed to get a little back with EBAIYRA who looks a really smart staying filly. She found the 2000m of the Diane too sharp and like so many of the Aga Khan's top fillies and mares, she loves the 2400m if not further. I think she may go for the Vermeille next.

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Another day of heavy rain here in London Town and we have the final decs for Saturday's racing.

Just seven go in the Group 2 Celebration Mile at Goodwood on Saturday for which the ground is currently Good to Soft. BENBATL is clear top rated and is 2/1 favourite. The problem is the balance of his form is on a sound surface - he looked very good slamming KING OF COMEDY at Newmarket last autumn on decent ground but on Champions Day he was tailed off last in the Queen Elizabeth II on Heavy ground. He was last seen running third to MAXIMUM SECURITY on the dirt at Riyadh in the Saudi Cup. He might have too much class for this lot.

REGAL REALITY has mixed it with the very best and had a nice confidence-boosting win at Salisbury last time on quick ground. She seems to go on any ground and has a great chance. She saw off DUKE OF HAZZARD that day and the latter has something to prove in this grade. CENTURY DREAM won the Diomed at Epsom and was fifth in the Ispahan which would be a better race than this. POSITIVE was behind CENTURY DREAM in the Ispahan and behind REGAL REALITY at Salisbury and he's far from certain to enjoy slower ground.

I'm backing REGAL REALITY if I can get on at 3s or bigger.

The big race in North America is the Sword Dancer at Saratoga. This is run over 2400m which is not a usual American trip and it's on the grass so this is a stepping stone to the Breeders Cup Turf, a race often won by the Europeans. A number of these met four weeks ago in a very rough Bowling Green Handicap over 2100m. SADLER'S JOY was first past the race but demoted to fourth for causing interference and CROSS BORDER got the race with HIGHLAND SKY promoted to second and MARZO to third. They all look closely matched to me and the one that interests is PEDRO CARA who was last seen running third in Doha. He was second in the Jockey Club Derby last year and could just be a notch above these.

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A few snippets from up here this evening.

Spectators are set to return to a racecourse for the 4-day St Leger meeting at Doncaster next month. 3,240 will be allowed on day one and 6,000 on the other three days. The local Mayor has protested but the racecourse owners, ARC (Arena Racing Company), are keen to proceed (understandably). Tickets range from £25 to £60 and racegoers will be confined to an alloted area for the afternoon within which masks will be mandatory indoors and no food and drink will be allowed in to the course.

I imagine they'll get plenty of takers though it's not for me and whether, compared with a normal Leger day, it will have any atmosphere remains to be seen but no doubt it will be hailed as a "triumph" by the uncritical racing media.

As for on track action, seven go in Sunday's Group 2 Grand Prix de Deauville over 2500m. It was 2800m when RED VERDON won the Maurice de Nieuil last time while TELECASTER was fourth at York over 2000m so what are we to assume of both horse's ability to act over this in-between trip? I prefer ZIYAD who was third in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud last time and while the very soft ground is a question, I always like Group 1 form in Group 2 company.

As of next Tuesday, a more "normal" fixture list returns in the UK with 7-race cards replacing the 9 and 10 race meetings we've had since June so we are going back to 4-5 meetings per day instead of three. While the light allows, there will be 3 afternoon fixtures and 2 evening meetings and with a number of the all-weather tracks operating under floodlights, we'll have a thin gruel of evening winter flat racing to stir the soul. 

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