My 2 cents for what it’s worth.
Many years ago I had 5K to win on Pierro to win the Caulfield Guineas. He draws the outside barrier (8 of 8 ), sits 3 deep the trip and gets beaten in the very last stride by All Too Hard right on the line.
Bustling draws out in the car park 3 starts back. Sits 3 deep the trip then battles on for a gallant second. Saturday, Bustling draws the ace with Blake Shinn booked. Jumps straight to the lead, conserves all his energy, hugging the rail and kicks away for an easy win.
If Amelia’s Jewel draws 5 and Overpass draws 12 would the result be different? In my opinion, yes. Wide draws have cost her 2 Quokkas and as soon as she drew wide again she was a no bet for me.
Unless you’re a Black Caviar or a Winx with the superior class to negate the wide barrier I will always look elsewhere to bet.