News from the North(ern) Hemisphere

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The rescheduled Lawlor's Novice Hurdle at Naas on Friday has just seven runners but it still looks between FIREFOX and ILE ATLANTIQUE and there's little between them on form.

It remains cold up here but the weekend meetings seem confident of going ahead at this time.

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The weather forecasters are warning of an ice age next week over the British Isles. This time last year, of course, we lost the big Ascot Clarence House meeting due to snow and frost so perhaps a little melodramatic. We'll see.

Prospects of this Saturday seem reasonable with slightly less cold air in the mix.

At Warwick, the ground has improved to Soft and five go in the Hampton Novices Chase over 4800m. With three horses all priced at 2/1 it's an open heat. APPLE AWAY and BROADWAY BOY have strong claims but the Exeter novice chase form with STAY AWAY FAY, in which GREY DAWNING was third, gets a further examination with the late supplementing of THE CHANGING MAN who was second. The latter blundered away his jockey at Sandown next time but with a better round of jumping is in this so four out of five have claims.

I was impressed with BROADWAY BOY at Cheltenham and he's seen as a future National horse - Warwick is a test of the novice with seven fences in close succession down the far side. I think that will work well for BROADWAY BOY and he's my choice.

At Kempton, the ground is now Good to Soft, Good in places and as a result BANBRIDGE has been backed in to 5/2 favourite for the Grade 2 Silvanaico Conti over 4050m. I love this horse and he jumps brilliantly but taking on PIC D'ORHY first time up is going to be a challenge and I'd rather be on the Nicholls runner at 3s. It should be a great spectacle watching these chasers pinging the Sunbury fences.

Up at Wetherby, it's Soft, Heavy in places for the Towton over just shy of 4000m. COLONEL HARRY is 8/11 and looks solid against TRELAWNE from an out of form yard and THE KING OF RYHOPE who should enjoy this ground far more than the bottomless quagmire at Ffos Las where he was beaten a mere 62 lengths last time.

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Grade 1 action in Ireland this afternoon with the Lawlor's of Naas Hurdle for the Novices:

Lawlor's of Naas Novice Hurdle: 

A 1-2-3 for Willie Mullins but a turn up as READIN TOMMY WRONG, the least fancied of the Closutton horses at 16s mugged ILE ATLANTIQUE, who had made every yard, in the final 100m to win a neck. The runner up missed the fourth last but that didn't make the difference in my view. Whether they would confirm the places at Cheltenham is debatable. The disappointment was FIREFOX, the 2/1 favourite, who just looked short of pace in fourth and perhaps needs to go up in trip.

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A chance to review the three Grade 2 chases run yesterday.

At Kempton, the Silviniaco Conti over 4000m ptoduced a thriulling finish between my two fancies, PIC D'ORHY and BANBRIDGE. The latter is the better jumper but I thought lack of a run would find him out against a proven right-hand expert but not for the first time I was wrong as PIC D'ORHY took an extra stride at the last and loat vital momentum allowing BANBRIDGE to assert and win a length and three quarters.

Joseph O'Brien had brought this one for his first run in eight months in perfect order and he'll be hoping the ground is quick for the Ryanair though I think Aintree is his track. PIC D'ORHY did little wrong and time may tell he had a lot on giving the winner 3 lbs and I'm sure he'll be in the mix for the Ascot Chase next month.

The outsider JANIDIL was well held in third while EDWARDSTONE, on his first try at the trip, pulled hard and was well beaten from three out. A wonderful race was marred by the fatal fall of NOTLONGTILLMAY, the Turners runner up. His trainer, Laura Morgan, came on ITV at her request and gave a highly emotional interview about the horse and the ups and downs of jump racing (she'd had the winner of a valuable race at Warwick just half an hour earlier) which wasn't easy to watch but reminded anyone and everyone how these beautiful creatures live, die and are loved.

At Wetherby, the Grade 2 Hampton over 4800m wasn't perhaps the slog through the mid which had seemed likely. APPLE AWAY and BROADWAY BOY went hard from the start and the latter faded tamely from three out but APPLE AWAY had no answer to the late challenge of GREY DAWNING who looks a chaser of some promise on this evidence though the jumping left would concern at Ascot or Sandown. He's 10s for the Brown Advisory but I think he could be a decent staying chaser next season. He was part of a cross-card six timer for trainer Dan Skelton.

One race Skelton didn't win was the Grade 2 Towton at Wetherby over 3950m. The odds on favourite COLONEL HARRY duly won but he didn't make it easy and would have been in big trouble had TRELAWNE not misbehaved. The latter hung badly right on both left hand turns and made David Bass's life really difficult. He looked booked for third at the second last but rallied well up the run in and was beaten less than two lengths. I hope they run him over a right handed track next time. The winner will probably go for the Turners but I'd be surprised if he was good enough for that strong race. 

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The cold has well and truly arrived here, meetings falling left, right and centre. My birthday trip to Plumpton today aborted by a -7 overnight which, despite frost sheets, was far too strong and the course was frozen solid.

Prospects for the weekend already look bleak - LIngfield stages its Winter Millions fixture on Friday and Sunday. This is only its third year but they lost the meeting last year to snow, frost and waterlogging (in that order). The concept is to hold a valuable midwinter meeting for horses who enjoy soft or heavy ground and don't get that at Cheltenham. 

The Grade 2 Lightning has a first prize of £42,000 which is decent for UK jump racing. Eight have been entered and the favourite for the 3200m race is DJELO who won well at Ascot before Christmas. This is a similar race albeit over 600m less. Earlier, he had beaten MASTER CHEWY narrowly at Aintree but Lingfield isn't Aintree but then nor is it Kempton where MASTER CHEWY was very good in the Wayward Lad at Christmas. I quite like JPR ONE whose third in the Henry VIII reads well in this company.

Ascot is Frozen ahead of its big meeting on Saturday - just four have been entered for the Grade 1 Clarence House over 3300m. This features the long awaited rematch between the first and second from the Arkle at Cheltenham with EL FABIOLO taking on JONBON. The latter won the Tingle Creek and the former took the Hilly Way. At Cheltenham the gap was five and a half lengths and that won't be easy to close.

Haydock is both Frozen and snow covered. 15 have been entered for the Grade 2 Rossington Main (used to be run at Doncaster and named after a famous local colliery) for the novice hurdlers over 3200m. It looks a strong field but we'll see where we are later in the week.

One venue unlikely to be affected by frost is Meydan which stages another Carnival meeting on Friday but the Group 2 Cape Verdi is an insult to the grade with only three rated over 100 and the top rated filly 103. MYSTIC ROSE beat STENTON GLIDER in a Listed at Sandown last July but this is a good opportunity to add some value for these fillies on the way to the paddocks.

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Not much to add from yesterday's report. As expected, Lingfield lost their Friday fixture with the Grade 2 Lightning transferred to Sunday.

The Saturday card, which was to be the first of the new morning cards as part of the new "Premierisation" initiative has been moved back to the afternoon with the three afternoon turf meetings at Ascot, Haydock and Taunton all under threat from frost.

The coming of Premier Racing to the UK basically means on a Saturday afternoon between 2 and 4pm there will be two Premier meetings and one non-Premier card with all the other meetings having to race at other times so more morning and evening meetings on a Saturday. This is because the bookies and tv complained the glut of racing was affecting turnover. The trouble is tv only shows the best races - it rarely shows Class 5 jump races or Class 6 flat races though this weekend may be an exception as we will get three successive afternoons of free-to-air racing though what and where seems very much up for grabs.

[Ohokaman 5,864]

We are one player short for the Fours Comp starting Saturday Stodge, fancy joining Team Imperatriz ? 

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2 minutes ago, Ohokaman said:

We are one player short for the Fours Comp starting Saturday Stodge, fancy joining Team Imperatriz ? 

I'm away this weekend , my friend. Between that and the time difference, I'm not reliable as a team member. 

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As expected, Ascot's Saturday fixture, due to feature the Grade 1 Clarence House Chase, was abandoned due to frost after a third night of very cold temperatures (-6 in Berkshire).

I expect the Clarence House will be re-routed to next weekend at Cheltenham as it was in 2023 but EL FABIOLO won't come over so JONBON will likely have little more than a paid exercise gallop. Haydock and Taunton inspect tomorrow.

Seven were confirmed at the final declaration stage for the Rossington Main at Haydock. It doesn't look a strong renewal. FIERCELY PROUD and LUMP SUM are both unbeaten in their two hurdles but they've won these at lower level tracks and this is their first time in the big leagues. The two horses with better form have both been let down by their jumping. SOUTHOFTHEBORDER was fourth in the Grade 2 Winter Novices at Sandown when blundering away his rider two out while FORTUNATE MAN was unlucky at Bangoe when being hampered at the third. He followed up in a warm race at Newbury a week later and he looks the option at 5s.

MIler weather is coming and it may be Lingfield's Sunday meeting will go ahead.

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As expected, the milder weather came 24 hours too late for the Saturday turf cards with both Haydock and Taunton lost. The Rossington Main heads to Doncaster this weekend so both Cheltenham and Doncaster will have decent cards with a Grade 1 at the former and several Grade 2 races at both tracks.

I'll put up some previews once we see the five day entries tomorrow.

Lingfield staged the second day of the Winter Millions card yesterday (it moves to Windsor next year). JPR ONE won the Grade 2 Lightning and L'HOMME PRESSE was a good winner of the Fleur du Lys but I'll say more on those as the week goes on.

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A few spare minutes in my busy day gives me a chance to have an early look at what looks like a cracking afternoon's racing on Saturday.

Cheltenham:

Trials Day, as it is called, is the last meeting at Prestbury Park before the four day Festival in March. The ground is currently Good to Soft, Soft in places having recovered well apparently from last week's freeze.

The sole Grade 1 is the rescheduled Clarence House Chase over 3200m. With EL FABIOLO waiting for the Dublin Festival, JONBON is 2/9 to score and it's hard to see what's going to stop him from the home camp. He's 8 lbs in front of EDITEUR DU GITE and while you could argue JONBON wasn't at his best on the Heavy ground at Sandown in the Tingle Creek, this better ground should be his optimum. EDITEUR DU GITE won the Desert Orchid at Kempton over Christmas beating NUBE NEGRA but that was Grade 2 form and he was 43 lengths behind JONBON in the Schloer over this course and distance back in November.

It seems a lot to turn round that kind of deficit. The others are decent handicappers in their own right but they are 150 rated horses while JONBON is 170.

The card opens with the Triumph Trial for the juvenile hurdlers over 3200m. BURDETT ROAD swerved the heavy ground at Chepstow but looked the best of the British here in November. He faces a serious challenge in SIR GINO from the Henderson yard, an ex French galloper who strolled home by 14 lengths on British debut. He could be anything.

The Cotswold Chase is the Gold Cup Trial. Just six entries and ROYALE PAGAILLE relished the Heavy ground when winning the Betfair at Haydock. He's competed in Gold Cups without ever looking like winning but this is the next step down the ladder. THE REAL WHACKER won the Brown Advisory last March and was fourth in the King George. It may be next season will be his time while STAY AWAY FAY is an exciting runner. He's still a novice and won the Esher at Sandown last time - whether he can mix it in open company with these experienced types I don't know but this will be a good trial for the Brown Advisory if they keep him with the novices this year.

The Unibet Hurdle over 3400m is the Champion Hurdle Trial. Mullins has entered both LOSSIEMOUTH and IMPAIRE ET PASSE but whether either or both will come here rather than to Leopardstown remains to be seen. LOVE ENVOI was second in the rescheduled Fighting Fifth at Sandown but that's not going to be good enough if the Irish show up.

The Cleeve Hurdle over 4800m is the trial for the Stayers but it's a rematch of the Long Walk at Ascot from December with PAISLEY PARK (second), DASHEL DRASHER (third), CHAMP (fourth) and BOTOX HAS (sixth) all re-opposing.

Doncaster: 

The ground here is Good to Soft, Good in places currently. No Grade 1 offering but plenty of northern trials (and possibly tribulations).

Twelve have been entered for the rescheduled Rossington Main Novices Hurdle over 3250m. Nicky Henderson has entered JERICHO DE RAPONET and JANGO BOIE - both, as you might imagine, are French imports. The former is 7 lbs inferior to the latter on official numbers - JANGO BOIE won the Formby at Liverpool on Boxing Day and has to shoulder a 5 lb penalty while JERICHO DE RAPONET won a decent maiden at Newbury.

Ten have been entered for the Mares Novices Hurdle over 3250m. ASHROE DIAMOND and GALA MARCEAU have been entered by Willie Mullins while Nicky Henderson has LUCCIA.  A big entry of 19 contests the River Don for the staying novices over 4850m. JOHNNYWHO and SHANAGH BOB head the market but I'm interested in the Nicholls entry WELCOM TO CARTRIES who won well at Ascot before Christmas.

I'll talk about these when we have the final decs on Thursday (UK).

 

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Away from the winter game, signs the global flat season is getting going for a new year.

Friday sees a really good card at Meydan - the best of the season so far - with two Group 1 races. Round 1 of the Al Maktoum Challenge is on Dirt over 1950m. In truth, this is about a weak a Group 1 as you're going to see all year with the top rated horse, CLAPTON, running off 112. He was eleventh of twelve in the Breeders Cup Classic last November and if that's good enough to win this, it speaks volumes. Second in is KABIRAKHAN who raced in Russia last summer - I'm no expert on Russian racing - but was moved to Doug Watson's yard and bolted up in a 2000m handicap on his Meydan debut.

The Jebel Hatta has been moved forward from Super Saturday in early March. The race is over 1900m on the grass and looks a real trial for the decent turf race at the Saudi Cup meeting in a month or so. MAWJ won the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket last May and after a Grade 1 win in the summer ran a blinder in the Breeders Cup MIle losing by a nose to MASTER OF THE SEAS. That's top notch form and she will take a lot of beating. She's joint top rated with SPIRIT DANCER who won the Group 2 Bahrain Trophy in November but he's never run in the very top grade. Godolphin have three other challengers and William Buick is on Al Rashadiya winner MEASURED TIME who looked very strong that day.

Twelve go in the Group 2 Al Fahidi Fort over 1400m on the grass. DANIYAH is top rated having won the Al Quoz Sprint on World Cup day last March. He's taken to the new trip well but this is a sterner test and while MYSTERIOUS NIGHT has the plum draw and William Buick, he may not be the main danger. My eye is drawn to Maurice de Gheest winner KING GOLD who ran well when fifth in the Foret and will enjoy this better ground.

With the Al Quoz now 1200m, the 1000m speedballs don't get as many opportunities but the Blue Point Sprint is a decent Group 2. My old friend EMARAATY ANA has claims but the 3-y-o get a lot of weight this early and the filly STAR OF MYSTERY gets 15 lbs. She won on her campaign opener and was second in the Duchess of Cambridge last season albeit she was a little disappointing in the Lowther. This spped test might be ideal.

Plenty of top European jockeys will be at Meydan but one who won't is Ryan Moore who rides WARM HEART in the Group 1 Pegasus Turf Invitational over 1800m. She ran very well in both America and Hong Kong and while this may be her last race I'm sure advertising her prowess to the American bloodtaock industry won't fo her any harm. My one against her would be the lightly raced INTEGRATION.

The feature is the £1.4 million Pegasus World Cup over 1800m on the Dirt. Frankie Dettori rides CRUPI for Todd Pletcher but he looks to have plenty on against the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile runner up NATIONAL TREASURE who was second to CODY'S WISH and you'll recall there wasn't a dry eye in the house after that race.

 

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We've also had the classifications and the World Racehorse Awards in the past day or two.

CITY OF TROY is rated 125 and 5 lb clear of the rest in what is the weakest juvenile crop since 2004. It may well be the pandemic had something to do with that and the 2004 crop had the likes of SHAMARDAL and DUBAWI and they didn't turn out too badly.

Trainer Roger Varian is a man whose viewpoint is always interesting - he has expressed "deep concern" over the direction of British racing in the wake of the World Racehorse Awards in London last evening.

EQUINOX won Racehorse of the Year with a rating of 135 becoming the first Japanese horse to gain the accolade since JUST A WAY back in 2014 and the highest ever rated Japanese horse beating EL CONDOR PASA in 1999. It was a 1-2 for Japan with ACE IMPACT in joint second on 128 with the top British horse MOSTAHDAF. On 127 we have BIG ROCK and HUKUM.

EQUINOX is standing at the Shadai Stallion Station in Hokkaido for a first season fee of USD 140,000 which isn't as high as I thought. 

Exacerbating Varian's concern is the fact both HUKUM and the second best UK horse, WESTOVER, have been sold to stand in Japan. If the likes of Shadwell and Juddmonte are happy to sell potential top stallions to Japan, will this lead to Coolmore and Godolphin following suit? If CITY OF TROY was the 3-y-o champion next season and won races like the 2000 Guineas, Derby and Arc would we see Japanese bloodstock interests try to make "the lads" an offer they might find hard to refuse? 

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A quick look back at last weekend's action.

Last Friday, the Group 2 Cape Verdi at Meydan produced a thrilling finish and a 1-2 for Charlie Appleby and Godolphin. However, a big gamble on ENGLISH ROSE (backed down to 4/7) went awry as she couldn't quite get past SILVER LADY who probably knew a little more (her fifth outing versus the favourite's third run). I didn't think the second looked that genuine but this was the first time she'd had to battle as her previous wins were in much lower grade.

SILVER LADY had shown a little promise in England last year but she hated soft ground at Newmarket last time.

At Lingfield, the Sunday of the Winter Millions meeting went ahead but there was plenty of drama on the track. The Grade 2 Lightning saw a melee at the first as leader MATATA jumped badly left, knocking DJELO out of the race completely and badly hampering MASTER CHEWY whose confidence was badly shaken. Five became three but while MATATA jumped straighter, JPR ONE was always going better and in the end won well enough though he was idling in the final 100m and MATATA was, to her credit, was running on. MATATA looks a Grand Annual type while JPR ONE is 16s for the Arkle. 

ALLAHO won well at Thurles but picked up an injury and will miss Cheltenham.

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We've got the final declarations through for Saturday and on this contribution I'll concentrate on Cheltenham.

The ground remains Good to Soft, Soft in places.

Just five go in the Grade 1 Clarence House Chase over 3250m. JONBON is 1/4 and while that's no one's bet, he's the obvious contender. The ground will be perfect and he has 43 lengths in hand of EDITEUR DU GITE on Schloer form. It'll be closer this time and I expect NUBE NEGRA, who ran better at Kempton, to be in the frame but JONBON can't be opposed.

Seven go in the Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle and on paper it looks a match between the proven talent of BURDETT ROAD and the potential of SIR GINO. None of the others have won a hurdle. I'm slightly in favour of the proven talent as SIR GINO had a canter round at Kempton but he could be anything.

Six go in the Cotswold Chase over the Gold Cup course and distance. It may be the more significant Gold Cup trials were run at Lingfield last weekend with L'HOMME PRESSE winning the Fleur de Lys and at Leopardstown next weekend. ROYALE PAGAILLE won the Betfair at Haydock but I'm not sure whether the ground will be deep enough. STAY AWAY FAY has bene supported in the betting but he's a novice against proven staying chasers and were he to win this his connections would have a real dilemma. CAPODANNO rulns for Willie Mullins and he was 23 lngths behind GALOPIN DES CHAMPS in the Savils - if he gets anywhere near these, the home challenge will be in big trouble. I don't have a strong view in all honesty - THE REAL WHACKER was well held at Kempton but he has run well at Cheltenham and might be worth an interest.

Just five go in the Unibet Hurdle for the dubious honour, one might argue, of being favourite to finish third in the Champion Hurdle. RUBAUD is a nice horse but he wants a sharper track and quicker ground. LOSSIEMOUTH won last year's Triumph but it's a big ask for the second season hurdlers in open company. LOVE ENVOI was well held in the Fighting Fifth but should enjoy this better ground.

The Cleeve Hurdle is the equivalent of one of those veterans chases that are so popular up here. You have two 12-y-o in PAISLEY PARK and CHAMP and the 11-y-o DASHEL DRASHER, all of whom know every blade of grass at Prestbury Park. Of them, I think DASHEL DRASHER might be the one this time but they all face the much younger STRONG LEADER - connections have wasted little time putting him up in trip and I suspect they think there will be plenty of improvement.

Selections:

12.05: BURDETT ROAD

1.50: THE REAL WHACKER

2.25: JONBON

3.00: LOVE ENVOI

3.35: STRONG LEADER

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At Doncaster, the ground has improved to Good, Good to Soft in places.

Just five stand in the Rossington Main and Nicky Henderson has left in JERIKO DU REPONET who went in to a lot of notebooks after a taking win at Newbury. He's 1/2 and will love the quicker ground. LUMP SUM and FIERCELY PROUD have each won two races in the West Country but nothing of the level of the favourite.

Six go in the Yorkshire Rose Mares Hurdle and Willie Mullins has entered both ASHROE DIAMOND and GALA MARCEAU. The latter was beaten four times by LOSSIEMOUTH last season but I always rated her and I think she could be good enough to beat her stable companion who was third in the Hatton's Grace and for whom I'm not sure the drop back in trip on this better ground will be ideal.

The River Don over 4850m is probably the most open of all the graded races. WELCOM TO CARTRIES is favourite and I thought he did it really well at Ascot. He's very lightly raced and you could argue DESTROYTHEEVIDENCE has stronger credentials having won a simi;ar race to this at Cheltenham last time. At a price, BIG FISH may be a little each way value at 20s. She looked very good earlier in the seaon on ground like this and got bogged down on much softer turf last time.

 

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The best card of the Meydan Carnival so far has just concluded in Dubai.

Two Group 1 races - the first was the opening round of the Al Maktoum Challenge over the World Cup distance of 2000m on the Dirt. On paper this looked a weak race for the grade but the money came for the ex-Russian KABIRKHAN who went off 5/6 in Britain with the top rated horse, CLAPTON, at 4s:

KABIRKHAN was just too good for these and bolted up by just under five lengths. How good is he - well, time will tell. He's the best ex-Russian galloper I've ever seen though that's not saying too much. I presume he'll move on to the next round on the way to a World Cup tilt. How he'll fare against the American speedballs is hard to know.

A bunch for the minor money with FRANZ STRAUSS waltzing home to play second fiddle and edging out CLAPTON who missed out on the cream and finished third.

The turf Group 1 was the Jebel Hatta over 1800m on the grass. As usual, Godolphin had a strong time with Charlie Appleby's MEASURED TIME backed against Saeed Bin Suroor's Group 1 classic winning filly, MAWJ.

Charlie Appleby plotted MAWJ's downfall by testing her stamina. HIGHLAND AVENUE went like a scalded cat but MEASURED TIME always had MAWJ well and when she couldn't quicken Buick sent the favourite on and the result was never in doubt. OTTOMAN FLEET ,made it a 1-2 for Appleby with our old mate SAN DONATO running a decent race in third.

The winner looks a decent horse and you'd think the Dubai Turf might be the race though there are other options including the Sheema Classic albeit over 600m further. 

Appleby had a tremendous day saddling four winners including MYSTERIOUS NIGHT who continued his upward trajectory in the Al Fahidi Fort. I thought DANYAH ran a fine race in third giving the winner 4 lbs.

STAR OF MYSTERY looked the one in the Blue Point Sprint. She's all speed and won by nearly two lengths - to be fair, she was getting all the weight and the allowances this day and whether the Al Quoz will work for her or not is uncertain but she's a quick filly.

 

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On 1/23/2024 at 7:01 PM, stodge said:

Plenty of top European jockeys will be at Meydan but one who won't is Ryan Moore who rides WARM HEART in the Group 1 Pegasus Turf Invitational over 1800m. She ran very well in both America and Hong Kong and while this may be her last race I'm sure advertising her prowess to the American bloodtaock industry won't fo her any harm. My one against her would be the lightly raced INTEGRATION.

The feature is the £1.4 million Pegasus World Cup over 1800m on the Dirt. Frankie Dettori rides CRUPI for Todd Pletcher but he looks to have plenty on against the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile runner up NATIONAL TREASURE who was second to CODY'S WISH and you'll recall there wasn't a dry eye in the house after that race.

Starting with the weekend review in the sunny climes of Florida and the big meeting at Gulfstream Park.

WARM HEART carried European hopes in the Pegasus Turf Invitational though the American punters preferred INTEGRATION.

She's a brilliant filly and if this is her last race it's a wonderful way to end her track career and you can imagine she'll be a huge addition to the Coolmore broodmare brigades.

Ryan Moore is the world's best jockey (yes, JMac is very good too) and the way he went for the rail run which he does so often in America and it's a skill he learned riding the tight British tracks (his brothers farm the jumps races at Plumpton which is about as tight as Taupo) but WARM HEART had to be brave to go through the gap but she was and the ground gained by the manoeuvre proved decisive.

WARM HEART won the Ribblesdale, Irish Oaks, Yorkshire Oaks and the Vermeille last season - all over 2400m. She was just mugged by INSPIRAL in the Filly & Mare Turf before running third in the Hong Kong Vase. As I say, she'll be a big addition to the Coolmore bloodstock ranks and her progeny will of course be of interest.

The Pegasus World Cup on the Dirt looked wide open but NATIONAL TREASURE, who had just failed against CODY'S WISH in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile was fancied to follow up over 200m further in the footsteps of the likes of KNICKS GO and LIFE IS GOOD.

The kind of race you often see on the Dirt in America - they went hard early and NATIONAL TREASURE's rider Flavien Prat almost certainly won the race by declining the pace battle with HOIST THE GOLD. That gave him just enough to hold the remarkable run of SENOR BUSCADOR who was miles behind half way down the back straight but made remorseless progress to finish a neck down with the two clear of CRUPI who, like the second, was well out the back before running on but was still four and a half lengths off the runner up.

SENOR BUSCADOR was seventh, beaten five and a half lengths, in the Breeders Cup Classic and you just wonder whether Meydan and 2000m might be the place for him while the winner might prefer the 1800m of the Saudi Cup. Both will have big claims if they travel to one or either of these huge prizes.

 

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Plenty to get through from the past weekend's action with a top card at Cheltenham and some decent races at Doncaster.

For the second year running, Ascot's loss was Cheltenham's gain as the Grade 1 Clarence House Chase over 3400m headed from the right-handed Berkshire venue to the left-handed Gloucestershire venue. EL FABIOLO, declared to run at Ascot, stayed in Ireland and on paper it looked a penalty kick for JONBON who had won the Tingle Creek on unsuitably Heavy ground last time but for whom the Good to Soft turf seemed ideal:

It's not called jump racing for no reason and much as he had in the Kingmaker at Warwick last year, JONBON put in an ordinary round of jumping and that allowed ELIXIR DU NUTZ, rated 14 lbs inferior, to nick the race in a dramatic finish. JONBON was rallying up the hill but the damage had been done and if he jumps like that in the Champion Chase, EL FABIOLO will be a distant figure at the finish. To be fair, Nicky Henderson will work his magic and doubtless we'll see a better effort in March but we'll need to.

The winner plies his trade in Grade 2 and Grade 3 races and for his 18-year old jockey Freddie Gyngell, this was a wonderful first Grade 1 success.  The other disappointment was the Wayward Lad winner EDITEUR DU GITE who seemed most likely to be the beneficiary of any issues with the 1/4 favourite but he jumped poorly as well and trailed home last. EL FABIOLO is now 1/2 for the Champion Chase and 2/7 for the Dublin Chase this weekend (of which more in my after next).

A strong undercard of Grade 2 races supported this championship races and there were two outstanding performances.

The first came in the Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle with SIR GINO strolling home ten lengths in front of BURDETT ROAD without turning a hair. This was a hugely impressive performance and SIR GINO is 11/8 favourite for the Triumph at the Festival. We've got to see all the Irish juvenile novices and I suspect we'll know a lot more after the coming weekend.

The second came in the Unibet Hurdle which initiated a hat-trick for Irish-trained runners sending a shiver through the British jumping ranks. LOSSIEMOUTH had won the Triumph last season and had scored well at Punchestown but this was her seasonal bow. H<owever, she made an admittedly second division group of British hurdlers look like plodders coming home unchallenged by nearly ten lengths. She'll head for the Mares for which she is 4/6 and over which Willie Mullins has a stranglehold. The thinking seems to be she'll swerve the Champion this year and go for it as a 6-y-o which makes a lot of sense (5-y-o have a poor record in the race and it's very hard for the juveniles in their first season in open company).  The truth is she was rated 147 and got all the allowances on Saturday and even though she'll go up to 160 on my ratings CONSTITUTION HILL is rated 175 and even with the mares allownace she would have a lot to find in the Champion this year.

On to the staying hurdlers in the Cleeve Hurdle and plenty of old friends such as DASHEL DRASHER, CHAMP and PAISLEY PARK renewing rivalry but it was the 2022 Grand National winner NOBLE YEATS who prevailed in a race where five had a chance going to the last. He was fourth in the 2023 renewal and I assume they'll have another go this time (the weights come out in a week or two). PAISLEY PARK ran his heart out yet again and he's a wonderful advert for the sport as a 12-y-o but didn't quite have the pace though he was giving the winner 6 lbs.

STRONG LEADER ran in snatches but finished well for third - I'd like to see him in the Stayers and the drier the ground the better. CHAMP and DASHEL DRASHER couldn't quite cut it in this company and we'll again know a lot more about the Irish challenge after the coming weekend.

The Cotswold Chase was the Gold Cup and the "winner" wasn't even in the race with stable mate CAPODANNO paying a huge compliment to GALOPIN DES CHAMPS. The former was well backed and stayed on too strongly for THE REAL WHACKER who ran really well in second with STAY AWAY FAY just finding it all too much in open company in third though in all fairness he ran a fine trial for the Brown Advisory.

The race was marred by the loss of DATSALLGINO who was fatally injured and ROYALE PAGAILLE crashed at the last when a beaten third and while not badly injured looks likely to miss Cheltenham further depleting the home challenge which now looks to centre on L'HOMME PRESSE, the Fleur de Lys winner.

Finally, the Super Alloys Novices Hurdle over 4000m saw GIDLEIGH PARK maintain his unbeaten record and earn quotes of 7s for the Baring Bingham (the old Ballymore) and 8s for the Albert Bartlee. LUCKY PLACE ran well for Henderson but I'd be surprised if the Irish don't have several better.

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Doncaster saw if you like the northern equivalent of Cheltenham Trials Day with three Grade 2 hurdles.

The Rossington Main Novices Hurdle over 3200m saw Nicky Henderson's JERICHO DU REPONET scramble home in a slowly run race which didn't suit him. Perhaps but that was a long way from a Cheltenham Festival performance and I wonder if Aintree, where a stronger pace is guaranteed, might be better.

Willie Mullins won two at Cheltenham and was on the board in the Yorkshire Rose Mares Hurdle with ASHROE DIAMOND who looked fantastic in the paddock and had too much pace for NIcky Henderson's UNDER CONTROL for whom this was a big step forward. Whether she will go to Cheltenham I don't know but I think she'll make a smashing novice chaser last year. GALA MARCEAU,. on seasonal bow, tired after the last and finished third. I wouldn't write her off on this run by any stretch.

The Albert Bartlett River Don over 4800m for the staying novice hurdlers saw a rare triumph for the north with KERRYHILL for trainer Ruth Jefferson decisively beating favourite WELCOME TO CARTRIES who ran a perfectly good race in defeat. The fact is KERRYHILL ran off 124 and if that's good enough to win an Albert Bartlett, I'd be astonished.

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Another busy weekend coming.

On Saturday, Sandown stages the Scilly Isles for the novice chasers over 4000m. The ground has dried so much they've actually had to water the Esher track to keep the ground Good to Soft, Good in places. Just seven entries but a tightly contested heat with all seven rated between 145 and 150. COLONEL HENRY beat TRELAWNE in the Towton three weeks ago. I prefer LE PATRON who won the Henry VIII before Christmas but the question is the ground. I think it will be too sharp for HERMES ALLEN who won the Feltham on Boxing Day.

Four Grade 1 races grace the opening day of the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown where the ground is Soft to Heavy for the hurdlers and Yielding to Soft, Soft in places for the chasers. It's often a benefit for Willie Mullins and he has six of the nine entries in the opening Nathaniel Lacy Novices Hurdle over 4250m. Favourite is PREDATORS GOLD who was no match for CALDWELL POTTER (whose owners, after losing two of their novices, have decided to sell the entire string) at Christmas.

Mullins has eight of the thirteen entries in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle over 3200m. STORM HEART was a decent galloper on the flat in France and won his maiden hurdle by 22 lengths so he's in the "could be anything " file.

The big race on Saturday looks to be the Arkle Novices Chase over 3400m. Last year's Supreme winner MARINE NATIONALE looked superb at Christmas over the course and distance but faces Faugheen winner GAELIC WARRIOR who looks the best of the four Mullins entries.

Just five go in the Irish Gold Cup over 4850m and GALOPIN DES CHAMPS is 4/9 to follow up last year's success. He was dominant in the Savils at Christmas but faces FASTORSLOW who has beaten him twice, albeit round the very different Punchestown circuit and at the end of one season and the beginning of another. On the numbers, FASTORSLOW has 12 lbs to find with the favourite and while he may get close GALOPIN DES CHAMPS is the top staying chaser currently and 10/11 for the Gold Cup at Cheltenham.

Four more Grade 1 events on Sunday as well.

Mullins has eight of the thirteen entries in the Ladbrokes Novice Chase over 4150m.  He then has eight of the fourteen in the Tattersalls Ireland Novices Hurdle over 3200m. Some of these are double entries from Saturday so we'll need to see what the final declarations bring tomorrow and Friday.

EL FABIOLO heads a four strong Mullins entry (out of six entries) in the Dublin Chase over 3400m and not surprisingly last year's Arkle winner is 2/7 favourite. Finally Mullins has entered three of the five in the Irish Champion Hurdle over 3200m for which STATE MAN is 1/4 to follow up last year's win and book himself another clash with CONSTITUTION HILL at Cheltenham. 

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I've just seen - four seconds and a third from last Saturday's Cheltenham selections - what I call a "crossbar afternoon".

That's distinct from a Beefeater card - "very small stakes".

Moving rapidly on....

In advance of the Dublin Racing Festival, some concerning news about Irish racing in 2023:

Irish entries, runners, field sizes and attendances all down in 2023 | Racing Post

The fall in attendances was just under 1% so nothing too much to worry about but more worrying are the numbers on runners and field sizes.

The Free to Air racing on Saturday afternoon is showing 10 races from three venues in three hours so it's going to be a busy time for the armchair punter.

The final declarations are through - five go in the Scilly Isles Novices Chase at Sandown. Four are rated between 148 and 150 so you'd think it would be quite a tight betting heat but HERMES ALLEN is Evens favourite following his Feltham second to the brilliant IL EST FRANCAIS who is 5/2 for the Turners at Cheltenham (if he comes over). Back over the shorter trip and on this stiffer track, I can see why HERMES ALLEN is supported.

DJELO was knocked over at the first fence in the Lightning at Lingfield having won the Noel at Ascot before Christmas. LE PATRON won the Henry VIII on heavt ground beating COLONEL HARRY and his win over 4000m at Newbury was when he was a blot on the handicap. 

I thought COLONEL HARRY did it well in the Towton and he's a sporting bet at 6s.

At Leopardstown, the hurdle course has improved to Soft after dry, mild day.

Just six go in the Nathaniel Lacy Novices Hurdle. Willie Mullins trains four including the favourite PREDATORS GOLD and second favourite LOUGHGLYNN. The latter won a Grade 2 at Limerick over Christmas while the former was runner up in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown the same day. Both ar eobviously decent - JETARA gets 7lbs as a mare but now goes against the geldings after three wins among her own gender.

Mullins has six of the eleven in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle. Stable jockey Paul Townend is on STORM HEART who looked very good on hurdling debut at Punchestown. KALA CONTI is a course and distance winner having won the Grade 2 equivalent at Christmas beating KARGESE. MAJBOROUGH is a winner over hurdles in France who could be anything while four others come into this having won their only hurdle. Of these, Limerick winner BUNTING might be the best but this is a race to perhaps avoid punting but it will be hugely informative as to the pecking order among the Irish juveniles and whether any can or will threaten SIR GINO.

Six go in the Arkle Novices Chase - Mullins has half the field but Barry Connell trains MARINE NATIONALE who is 2/5 with GAELIC WARRIOR going elsewhere. FACILE VEGA was very poor at Christmas and it may be IL ETAIT TEMPS, the Faugheen runner up who gives the favourite most to do.

Just four stand in the Irish Gold Cup and the question is whether GALOPIN DES CHAMPS can confirm the superiority from the Savils. FASTORSLOW might prefer Punchestown and the 2022 Savils winner CONFLATED might be the one for the forecast. 

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Sunday's declarations are through for the second day of the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown.

The Ladbrokes Novices Chase over 4150m has five runners, three trained by Willie Mullins and two trained by Gordon Elliott. The Mullins runners look better with GAELIC WARRIOR aiming to follow up his Faugheen success over a notch further. This isn't a penalty kick as stable companion FACT TO FILE is no mug having won by 17 lengths over course and distance at Christmas. GRANGELARE CROSS won the Neville Hotels over 4800m at Christmas and this trip on this better ground may be too sharp.

Mullins has half the field in the Tattersalls Ireland Novices Hurdle over 3200m. BALLYBURN bolted up at Christmas but that was over 4000m and I'm to be convinced 3200m is his trip in this grade. FARREN GLORY looked the likely winner of the Formby at Aintree on Boxing Day when falling at the second last. If any jumping issues have been sorted he has a huge chance. I take him to win as SLADE STEEL, like the favourite BALLYBURN, may prefer 4000m.

Mullins has four of the five in the Dublin Chase over 3400m. DINOBLUE beat GENTLEMAN DU MEE in the Paddy's Rewards at Christmasn but EL FABIOLO was last season's top novice chaser slamming JONBON in the Arkle and looked in good form at Cork. With JONBON's surprise defeat last week this is a real opportunity for EL FABIOLO to stamp his authority on the speed chase division.

Mullins has three of the five in the Irish Champion Hurdle. STATE MAN won this last year and is 2/7 to follow up. He's won the Matheson and the Morgiana already this term and won this last year - he holds all his four opponents on past form and looks a pretty good thing to confirm his status as Ireland's top hurdler and likely runner up to CONSTITUTION HILL in March.

We get another 10 on free to air television on Sunday with five from Scottish Trials Day at Musselburgh.

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Slightly ahead of the game for a change so a look back at yesterday's racing (Saturday) in order.

Five championship Grade 1 races on offer, four at Leopardstown and one at Sandown.

After morning rain at Leopardstown, the ground was Soft all over for the opening day of the Dublin Racing Festival which in recent years has been dominated by Willie Mullins and once again he dominated the opening day races. The Nathaniel Lacy Solicitors Novices Hurdle over 4450m was the Irish trial for what is still known as the Ballymore at Cheltenham - it's perhaps been devalued by the coming of the Albert Bartlett over 4800m and the two races tend to fish in the same pool for contenders.

Mullins had four of the six runners and jockey bookings suggested PREDATORS GOLD was the best of them.

Not the last time on the day's card Danny Mullins would be on the right one as DANCING CITY outstayed PREDATORS GOLD from the last with JETARA not far back in third. Some of the jumping was a bit novicey to be honest and DANCING CITY had led before JETARA took over and the mare still led on the home turn but stamina kicked in and DANCING CITY had that in abundance. He's 10s for the Ballymore but a more interesting 9s for the Albert Bartlett which looks a better option. PREDATORS GOLD ran okay - he ,might be suited by better ground and a stronger gallop but he's walked out to 16s and 20s for the big novice hurdle events which look wide open.

The second race was the Spring Juvenile Hurdle which again saw a strong Mullins respresentation. Impressive Punchestown winner STORM HEART was ridden by Paul Townend and went off favourite but there were plent yof unknown or unexposed types.

2-0 to Danny Mullins and a 1-2-3-4 for the Mullins stable. KARGESE did this well and was given a superb ride by Danny who kept her close to the pace and saved as much ground as possible. I'm not sure this was one of Paul Townend's finest hours - he raced wide throughout on the favourite and when the pace quickened had too much ground to make up. MAJBOROUGH is obviously talented but his jumping let him down badly here - he's the one who I think might prefer some better ground at Prestbury Park.

All this has left impressive Cheltenham winner SIR GINO 4/5 for the Triumph with KARGESE at 5s - this may be one of those occasions where the best novice isn't in Ireland.

Last year's impressive Supreme winner MARINE NATIONALE was 4/7 for the Ladbrokes Arkle Chase having made an impressive start to his chasing career over course and distance. Mullins had three of his five opponents including former Bumper winner FACILE VEGA and Faugheen runner up IL ETAIT TEMPS.

Danny Mullins made it 3-0 riding a 534-1 treble bringing IL ETAIT TEMPS to mug long time leader FOUND A FIFTY in the final 50m. 

They dawdled and then sprinted from the second last. FOUND A FIFTY nearly did it but we know IL ETAIT TEMPS is decent and also stays 4000m. As a trial for the Arkle at Cheltenham, it told us very little. FACILE VEGA looked short of pace and is crying out for 4000m while MARINE NATIONALE found nothing when the pace quickened and was beaten when blundering at the last.  The British contenders may well think they've got more than a chance on this evidence but the bookies still have the principals in this race dominating the ante post market.

MARINE NATIONALE is 11/4 with IL ETAIT TEMPS at 7/2 and FOUND A FIFTY at 4s. I can't have MARINE NATIONALE on this evidence but the other two have solid claims.

The feature Irish Gold Cup had just four runners but was round three of theclashes between Gold Cup winner GALOPIN DES CHAMPS who went off 1/3 to make it 2-2 with FASTORSLOW who had beaten him teice at Punchestown, once at the ned of last season and again at the beginning of this campaign in the John Durkan. GALOPIN DES CHAMPS had put up an imperious performance in the Savils at Christmas.

Not perhaps the romp we had seen at Christmas but Paul Townend didn't have to get too serious on GALOPIN DES CHAMPS to hold off FASTORSLOW who certainly wasn't disgraced in second.

They are the front two in the Gold Cup betting at 8/13 and 4s respectively. GALOPIN DES CHAMPS does what you want a steeplechaser to do - jump well and run well. He has stamina in abundance and the 5250m of the Gold Cup is familiar territory while I think that may be far enough for FASTORSLOW. It may be GERRI COLOMBE who chases him up the Cheltenham hill but you'd be a brave man to bet against last year's winner following up on this evidence as I think the stronger pace of a Gold Cup will suit him.

At Sandown we had the Scilly Isles Novices Chase over 4000m for the intermediate novices. Favourite was HERMES ALLEN who had chased home the brilliant IL EST FRANCAIS (perhaps the one horse anywhere currently who could give GALOPIN DES CHAMPS something to think about) in the Kauto Star at Kempton on Boxing Day. LE PATRON had won the Henry VIII over 3200m and DJELO had been knocked over at the first fence at LIngfield in the Lightning.

A wonderful display of front running jumping from the outsider NICKLE BACK who seemed to take to Sandown and the seven fences down the back straight like the proverbial duck to water. DJELO was the only one to make any kind of race with it with the winner over the last two and was closing at the line.

A first Grade 1 for jockey James Best and trainer Sarah Humphrey but the race was marred by the death of HERMES ALLEN who took a fatal fall when beaten at the second last. LE PATRON patently didn't stay in the tacky ground. Whether NICKLE BACK will get the same amount of rope in the Turners is doubtful but he's 14s with DJELO 20s. The Turners market would likely have been changed by the races at Leopardastown run on Sunday.

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1 hour ago, stodge said:

Slightly ahead of the game for a change so a look back at yesterday's racing (Saturday) in order.

Five championship Grade 1 races on offer, four at Leopardstown and one at Sandown.

After morning rain at Leopardstown, the ground was Soft all over for the opening day of the Dublin Racing Festival which in recent years has been dominated by Willie Mullins and once again he dominated the opening day races. The Nathaniel Lacy Solicitors Novices Hurdle over 4450m was the Irish trial for what is still known as the Ballymore at Cheltenham - it's perhaps been devalued by the coming of the Albert Bartlett over 4800m and the two races tend to fish in the same pool for contenders.

Mullins had four of the six runners and jockey bookings suggested PREDATORS GOLD was the best of them.

Not the last time on the day's card Danny Mullins would be on the right one as DANCING CITY outstayed PREDATORS GOLD from the last with JETARA not far back in third. Some of the jumping was a bit novicey to be honest and DANCING CITY had led before JETARA took over and the mare still led on the home turn but stamina kicked in and DANCING CITY had that in abundance. He's 10s for the Ballymore but a more interesting 9s for the Albert Bartlett which looks a better option. PREDATORS GOLD ran okay - he ,might be suited by better ground and a stronger gallop but he's walked out to 16s and 20s for the big novice hurdle events which look wide open.

The second race was the Spring Juvenile Hurdle which again saw a strong Mullins respresentation. Impressive Punchestown winner STORM HEART was ridden by Paul Townend and went off favourite but there were plent yof unknown or unexposed types.

2-0 to Danny Mullins and a 1-2-3-4 for the Mullins stable. KARGESE did this well and was given a superb ride by Danny who kept her close to the pace and saved as much ground as possible. I'm not sure this was one of Paul Townend's finest hours - he raced wide throughout on the favourite and when the pace quickened had too much ground to make up. MAJBOROUGH is obviously talented but his jumping let him down badly here - he's the one who I think might prefer some better ground at Prestbury Park.

All this has left impressive Cheltenham winner SIR GINO 4/5 for the Triumph with KARGESE at 5s - this may be one of those occasions where the best novice isn't in Ireland.

Last year's impressive Supreme winner MARINE NATIONALE was 4/7 for the Ladbrokes Arkle Chase having made an impressive start to his chasing career over course and distance. Mullins had three of his five opponents including former Bumper winner FACILE VEGA and Faugheen runner up IL ETAIT TEMPS.

Danny Mullins made it 3-0 riding a 534-1 treble bringing IL ETAIT TEMPS to mug long time leader FOUND A FIFTY in the final 50m. 

They dawdled and then sprinted from the second last. FOUND A FIFTY nearly did it but we know IL ETAIT TEMPS is decent and also stays 4000m. As a trial for the Arkle at Cheltenham, it told us very little. FACILE VEGA looked short of pace and is crying out for 4000m while MARINE NATIONALE found nothing when the pace quickened and was beaten when blundering at the last.  The British contenders may well think they've got more than a chance on this evidence but the bookies still have the principals in this race dominating the ante post market.

MARINE NATIONALE is 11/4 with IL ETAIT TEMPS at 7/2 and FOUND A FIFTY at 4s. I can't have MARINE NATIONALE on this evidence but the other two have solid claims.

The feature Irish Gold Cup had just four runners but was round three of theclashes between Gold Cup winner GALOPIN DES CHAMPS who went off 1/3 to make it 2-2 with FASTORSLOW who had beaten him teice at Punchestown, once at the ned of last season and again at the beginning of this campaign in the John Durkan. GALOPIN DES CHAMPS had put up an imperious performance in the Savils at Christmas.

Not perhaps the romp we had seen at Christmas but Paul Townend didn't have to get too serious on GALOPIN DES CHAMPS to hold off FASTORSLOW who certainly wasn't disgraced in second.

They are the front two in the Gold Cup betting at 8/13 and 4s respectively. GALOPIN DES CHAMPS does what you want a steeplechaser to do - jump well and run well. He has stamina in abundance and the 5250m of the Gold Cup is familiar territory while I think that may be far enough for FASTORSLOW. It may be GERRI COLOMBE who chases him up the Cheltenham hill but you'd be a brave man to bet against last year's winner following up on this evidence as I think the stronger pace of a Gold Cup will suit him.

At Sandown we had the Scilly Isles Novices Chase over 4000m for the intermediate novices. Favourite was HERMES ALLEN who had chased home the brilliant IL EST FRANCAIS (perhaps the one horse anywhere currently who could give GALOPIN DES CHAMPS something to think about) in the Kauto Star at Kempton on Boxing Day. LE PATRON had won the Henry VIII over 3200m and DJELO had been knocked over at the first fence at LIngfield in the Lightning.

 

What do you reckon, the extra half mile plus looks a stretch if they go to Cheltenham Stodge? Nice performance and great ride all the same