chiknsmack

Canterbury R1 11 8u @ 3.6. R2 No bet. R3 Slight concern over a possible hot pace. 5 10u @ 3, 7 3u @ 7.5. R4 3 from 5-7-12. I wasn't on Aunt Cindy last start when she won, I'm on today so... 3 3u @ 8.5. R5 Like both faves - and a couple of others - in a nine-horse field. Both would probably prefer firmer. 1 9u @ 3.5. R6 No bet. 2-3-5-6. R7 7 0.5u @ 21. Wetter better. Don't mind the fave (7). R8 Wary of a couple of runners fresh up since the Couplands Mile. Haven't really found anything. 2 2u @ 10. R9 Even race with a $6 fave. I like both faves and a couple outside the market. 3 7u @ 6.5, 16 8u @ 6, 13 1u @ 12, 8 0.5u @ 31.

There will be a degree of wait and see with Trentham and the rain. Track now a Heavy 8 before the first. Wellington R1 With the three faves to the complete exclusion of anything else, 15-1-8. Can't back them all, 15 8u@ 3, 1 4u @ 5. R2 The second-fave has just been scratched (after I put a couple of small bets on, so I get the "No Deductions" deal) leaving the market with a clear top two. I didn't really find either, but MUCH prefer the 8 to the 1 and have backed the 8. Had a tiny bet on the 7 at $31 too. 8 4u @ 3.6. R3 5 from 2&3, with questionmarks around the 3 if it's too wet. 5 10u @ 3.6, 2 4u @ 5.5, 3 3u @ 6. R4 The fave was unlucky on the first day and is down in grade, so I can see the appeal. He maps to get back on the fence though and being unlucky isn't unusual for horses like that. Certainly Bosson on board helps. I'm not giving him no chance (like I am the 7&8), but I'm happy to take him on. The second fave was good winning lto when 1u over ground, but again maps back. I'm taking 30% of the market across four runners rather than 33% with the fave or 14% with the second-fave, though I could reasonably include one of the faves or save on them both. 5 2u @ 12, 6 1u @ 16, 10 1u @ 14, 17 1u @ 11. R5 Market say 4-3-5-6, I'm against the 3. But if the track is heavy, 3 is best suited and 4&5 probably aren't. Wait and see. R6 I'm 6 from 1-2-4, with 2 getting the biggest tick if the track deteriorates (and 6 probably not loving it as much as the others). 6 1u @ 13. R7 La Crique out from evens to 2/1, Sharp 'N' Smart from 3/1 heading towards evens. I was with La Crique, though she was beaten 1u in the spring on heavy over 1400m, so heavy 1600m would be tough (even good or soft straight to 1600m 1u would be tough). Conor O'Ceirin will love it if the track worsens so SNM's H2H looks pretty good to me. R8 No bet. I've found reasons to like most of them. Don't know why 1&13 haven't been scratched. R9 Haven't really found anything (I'm a Contemplation fan so I'll have 11 1u @ 13). Waisake and Toms have form at the trip which is a big positive. Toms won't hate the wet either. Asathought, Ladies Man, Subtle Point and Southroad the big winners as the track worsens. R10 Found 1-4 on top, though the Latta runners 3&7 will appreciate the heavy track more than most. 1 7u @ 5.5, 4 7u @ 5.5, 3 3u @ 9, 7 2u @ 12.

593 and 856 also have Lovenvain as 4th dam. All three colts. Lot 272 is a filly with Lovenvain as 5th dam.

A Group 3 placing is worth more than eight non-stakes wins. That's a defensible position. Stardon should be nominated. Whether she should win I don't know. Ditto Studholme.

28u out, 49u in. Basically all square for the past two meetings.

R2 I found the same two as Ohokaman. 17 5u @ 5, 13 4u @ 6. R3 No bet. Like both faves and a couple of others (6&10). R4 No bet. 1-9-10-18. R5 11&1 from 9&10. Three others on debut to muddle things up. 11 4u @ 5.5, 1 1u @ 10. R6 4 from 9-10 (the two faves) from 14-17. 4 1u @ 16. R7 Against the 5 of the three faves. 3 leads, hoping 4&9 can find trail and osl from the outside two barriers though that may be wishful thinking. 4 won this grade c&d lto. 4 5u @ 4.8, 9 0.5u @ 31. R8 No bet. 6-7-5-12. R9 No bet. 4-8-11 (11 being Shimmering). R10 Bet of the day. 9 from 5-13-8-1. Nothing against the other two faves, just really like the setup for the 9. 9 7u @ 6.5.

If they're going to not have deductions for scratchings they need to build their markets differently. Otherwise they'd just be giving away money. They aren't proper bookies (neither are the Aussie corps, btw), but they're also not a charity. Look at the first two races at Hastings tomorrow. Kahma Suitsya is $4.50 in both of them, taking up 22% of the market. Bourbon Cure is in R2 at $11 (9%), having run at Matamata today but not yet officially scratching from tomorrow. You would also expect further scratchings from Hastings for horses that are nommed for Wellington or Taupo. If the TAB set the market for either race at 120% you could just back the field and guarantee a profit.

80u out, 62.8 in. Three seconds, including one by a nose and one where the horse I thought would lead was slow away, stuck in between horses and pulling, in front halfway down, then outfought by the leader. He'll go into the black book.

Most days go up at 4pm the day before.

A low-confidence day for me for sure, especially with races 3 through 6 having multiple first starters. R1 No bet. Not against the three faves, but quite like three rougher ones (McEnroe @ $13, She's Bright @ $16, You Know @ $26). If anything I could chuck half a unit on each of those three. R2 Again not really taking a stand against anything. 9 5u @ 7 (Kind Wish), 7 5u @ 4.5 (Hasstobeawinner). R3 Four runners on debut, none of them in the market (though one is 13 into 10). I like the two faves. I think Volare goes forward from the wide draw and Tempest gives her a head start, but there's more scope for Tempest to improve at her second career start. The prices are enough for me to back both and have a little saver on Tidal Rush (unlucky lto). 4 10u @ 3.2, 5 5u @ 3.8, 7 1u @ 16. I actually don't hate the Powerplays of Volare to win and Tempest to run Top 4 and vice versa at 5.5 and 6.5. R4 Four runners on debut including $3.30 fave Princess Discreet. She was poorly away in her trial before letting down nicely under a heavy handride down the straight to win. The third horse came out and won on Saturday, the fourth horse is in R3. She has plenty going for her on paper (Fastnet Rock filly for Andrew Forsman and China Horse Club) to see why people would think a midweek maiden would be at her mercy. I went looking for something to beat her though and didn't find much; Redsheis and Vent Vert are chances, maybe with Ask Mum who has come back better this prep and will appreciate the step up in trip. 14 6u @ 3.3. R5 No bet. 2yos, three on debut including two in the market, one of which is 7.5 into 3.5 (Relentless Ruby). She has a similar profile to Princess Discreet (China HC/Forsman) but had a much, MUCH better trial (jumped, sat osl, untouched but still finished better than most of them). I would prefer more than one 800m trial before a debut at 1200m, but I think Andrew Forsman knows what he's doing. The other debutante had zero interest in settling in her most recent trial and when given her head showed good speed. I was also interested in Cyclonic King and Lowe Flying of the raced brigade, hence the no bet. R6 Three on debut, two in the market. I thought this was an even field even before considering the debutantes, and I can understand the support for them. I actually found Asmarde on top at a price. The first two runs this prep were good placings, while lto they went back from a wide draw and he did nothing. It's a wide draw again today but hopefully they've learnt their lesson and push forward. 2 1u @ 15. R7 I've found Felicienne on top - as has the market - without being super keen. If I knew she'd land forward of midfield rather than back I'd be keener. 5 5u @ 4 (Boosted). R8 No bet. I've found Cote de Beaune on top, but he's a horse who promised the world and has delivered an atlas. Rocket lad won first up last prep, but both wins are on the plastic. R9 My confidence in It's Business Time is tempered somewhat by the fact she's 4u1p, which is a negative. Mark Walker surely knows more than me and I haven't found much else in the race (3-4-5-12), so she's still a bet. 11 7u @ 4.8. R10 Safura and Highly Vindicated are both down from stakes class lto to a maiden here. Safura being a get-back horse is not one I'd usually rush to back, but the setup for this race is great. Highly Vindicated (and Firestone and Bridgerton) should go forward and take catching, though I'll be more interested in Bridgerton next start. 13 14u @ 2.2, 5 3u @ 9, 10 2u @ 12. R11 Triple Money good all four career runs. Should lead, over ground for the first time the query. Bulleeze One maps similar and was very good at his first run over ground lto. They're clearly the two for me. 1 12u @ 3.3, 2 4u @ 10.

33.5u out, 73.5u in. That makes it 201u out, 267.4u in for the day, and 633.5u out, 748u in for the thread.

All bought by David Ellis of Te Akau at the Karaka sales last year (the clear leading buyer on aggregate the past few years and one of the few obstacles to many of our best yearlings being sold offshore) then syndicated, so not strictly the same ownership. He spent the most money and a lot of the eligible horses for the race are in Oz, so it's no unexpected that he has big numbers in the race. The stable has won the race seven years in a row or something like that and have run the trifecta a couple of times, though I think having seven of the fourteen is a record for the stable.

This Hoiho - Piwaewae matchup is a nailbiter. 5-5 going into the last, with five of us having the two faves (and one from each team having them as their best bet). The lowest scorer for Piwaewae is one of those two, and depending on the result could leapfrog Hoiho's lowest scorer for the win. But Hoiho's lowest scorer is the one who has gone outside the faves, instead taking the third-fave and the outsider. I've picked the faves but I'll be pulling their tails all the way home.

Gore: 113.5u out, 121.1 in. Wellington: 54u out, 72.8u in. That's with my two biggest bets of the day losing. Zee Falls winning the first at Pukekohe paid for most of the bets there, so Maven Belle winning too has me well in front. If I had to find a negative for the day (though why should we ever do that?) it'd be finding the omen bet Aunt Cindy and not chucking something on her at $16. Of course she won.

Pukekohe R1 Even lot. I’m against 6-8-9, but can make cases for the rest. Don't love the map for the fave but it's a small field. 4 4u @ (Boosted), 1 3u @ 7, 7 2u @ 7.5. R2 No bet. Can't back a $1.35 fave, could maybe look to get it beat (3-5-8 the main candidates). But it’s Te Akau on Te Akau Million day and BGP are on, so it probably wins. R3 Pier and Maven Belle best horses in race, the latter with the benefit of a run under her belt this prep. Plus she’s Te Akau. Don’t hate 12&8 at prices, though this is a BIG step up in grade for 8 at his second start. 2 10u @ 2.5 (Boosted). R4 Trobriand has done everything right and is from the right stable. The other four in single-figures will probably be giving him a headstart. Believe in Magic is also from the right stable and is overs at $26. 1 9u @ 2.8, 9 1u @ 26. R5 5-7-11-1-3. The four faves - all between $4.50 and $5.50 - and a $31 shot. Money has come for Fashion Shoot but I'm hard against it. 7 3u @ 5.5, 5 0.5u @ 31. R6 The market says it’s Wild Night vs Legarto, and the step up to 1600m may favour Wild Night rather than Sacred Satono (who he beat by 0.75L lto), but I’d rather thake the place price on SS than the win price on either fave. 3 1u @ 10.

Pukekohe R1 4-7 Pukekohe R2 1-3 Pukekohe R3 1-2 Pukekohe R4 1-7 BB Pukekohe R5 1-7 BB Pukekohe R6 1-9 The Valley R8 11-12 The Valley R9 13-15 Randwick R9 4-7 Randwick R10 11-16 Thanks, and good luck to all.

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Wellington R1 Looks a solid pace for this even field. Slight lean 15 from 6-8-2-3-13. 15 6u @ 4. R2 10 from 7-9-4-16. 10 5u @ 4.5. R3 Expecting a fast pace over 1000m down the chute. Gone with one who should get back from a wide draw and have every chance to run past them, with a smaller bet on one who’ll be handier. 10 4u @ 8.5, 6 3u @ 6. R4 Another “Flying Five”. I’ve found both faves, so no bet. R5 Keen on the fave Pisco Sour here, should land handy from the ace draw and that should help her navigate the crossing on her first look at the track. Mahoe won for me at double-figures lto when 1u, so I’ll go again. 7 14u @ 3.8 (Boosted), 2 2u @ 10. R6 I’ve found Opawa Jack in an even field. First run over ground this prep a negative so not super-keen. Already backed in from 12 to 7. 12 3u @ 7. R7 Slight lean to the fave in an even field. 3 8u @ 2.5. R8 One fave going forward, one going back. I’ll back the former, even though the latter has Lisa Allpress up. 8 9u @ 3.2. R9 10-6-3. Wide draw the negative for the 10. No bet.

Gore R1 With the two faves and there’s just enough meat on the bone for me to bet. 1 12u @ 3.8, 8 6u @ 3.8. R2 1 from 9-8-3. 1 30u @ 2.1, 9 2u @ 8.5. R3 6 3u @ 6.5. R4 2 from 7 from 3-4-9. Is Aunt Cindy the omen bet of the weekend? 2 10u @ 4.2, 7 4u @ 5. R5 No bets at the prices. 3-4-5-2. R6 7 had a vet issue lto at her first run over ground, she’s 55dbr here and again over ground. Best horse in race though. 2 not hopeless. 7 6u @ 4.8, 2 2u @ 10. R7 Open race, I’m 14 from 6 from 7-15-4-5. 14 4u @ 6, 6 1u @ 16. R8 2 is going from 1400m to 2000m, his first run beyond a mile. He’s had seven runs back this prep so should be fit, but it’s a query. I still have him on top from 1&6. 2 8u @ 5 (boosted), 1 4u @ 6.5, 6 1u @ 11. R9 1 8u @ 4.2, 6 5u @ 5.5. R10 I have the fave mapping back and inside, with the second-fave going forward from the ace draw. The fave may still be good enough, but I’ll take him on. 13 7u @ 4, 1 0.5u @ 41.

75.5u out, 36.8u in.

The last two winners have been heavily backed (Avitus was at least $8 at noon before winning at $3.30, Zappolino was $10 before winning at $3.80). Someone's having a good day, and if they go again it might be worth following them in. I tipped Archerfield in R8 at $8.50 and it's already into $6, so that might be the one (all the other moves I can see happened before noon).

The VRC Classic Sprint (now called the Champions Sprint because the last day of the Melbourne Cup carnival is now Champions Day) was the joint 38th-rated Gr. 1 in the world. Kiwis Roch 'N' Horse and Levante were 1st and 4th, though neither managed a rating of 115 or higher to make the list as horses (the high rating for the race was in large part due to Nature Strip running 2nd). I would imagine the highest-rated NZ race would be the Telegraph, where Levante beat Roch 'N' Horse by a nose. Roughies running 3rd and 4th (and the odds-on fave Entriviere running 5th) would've hurt the rating pretty badly though. Kiwibreds rated 115 or higher: 120 - I’m Thunderstruck (Shocking) 118 - Lost And Running (Per Incanto) 117 - Hezashocka (Shocking) - Mo’unga (Savabeel) 116 - I Wish I Win (Savabeel) - Mr. Brightside (Bullbars) - Tofane (Ocean Park) 115 - Aegon (Sacred Falls) - Lucky Patch – Paleontologist (El Roca) - Lucky Sweynesse (Sweynesse)

Great advice.

Ashburton R1 No bet. Market looks about right. R2 With the drifting fave as money comes for the second-fave (my third pick and a very obvious danger). Could possibly save on it. 13 6u @ 3.3 (Secretxpress), 4 1u @ 12 (Baltimore). R3 No bet. Two faves each at $3.20 (one of them can be boosted to $3.60) are my top two, Hello Mary Lou at $16 should land handy and beat most of the field home. R4 CD visitor Esme a $1.70 fave off placings at her past two. I wouldn't take any shorter. 7 20u at 1.7. R5 No bet. Seven runners, six of them between 3.3 and 6.5. I'm not hard against any of them. Slightly against the fave and the topweight so could find a way to back 2-3-7. R6 Slightly concerned about the step back up in trip for 1 (also part of the reason I'm against 4&9) but have him on top. 1 10u @ 3.8 (Noble Knight), 2 5u @ 5 (Cage Phyta), 3 1u @ 12 (Taumalolo). R7 12 backed in from 7.5 to 4.8. I really should've backed it last night. 12 8u @ 4.8 (Just Maybe), 10 3u @ 7.5 (Searchlight), 1 2u @ 7.5 (El Tirador). R8 Plenty of chances. 2-3-6 from 12-7-9-10. 2 5u @ 5 (Rocastano), 3 2u @ 8.5 (Archerfield), 6 1u @ 13 (Shanghai Express). R9 Again plenty of chances. 5-4-7 from 2-1-8-6. 5 6u @ 7.5 (Tadita), 4 4u @ 5.5 (Fireglow), 7 1.5u @ 8.5 (Make Believe). I agree with this. I also like R4 Zappolino to beat Amaterasu at $1.70 and R6 Cage Phyta to beat Pomander at $1.70. Not a big fan of the pricing though ($1.85 each of two).

Personal issues can be read as implying he himself has an issue/problem. Personal reasons means he has a reason for not riding but it's not necessarily an issue with himself. The difference is subtle, and obviously Scooby meant no offense, but I can see how Crow could take it the way they did.