RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.

reng

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  1. OCCIDENTAL TOURIST (USA) 1999 Bay colt by Gone West - Yousefia, by Danzig Sire Summary Named Foals Starters Winners Wins Placings SW (GW) Earnings AEI 90 79 31 69 156 0 (0) over $1.2m. 0.30 per foals 87.8% 34.4% 0.8 1.7 0.0% (0.0%) $14,368 per starters 39.2% 0.9 2.0 0.0% (0.0%) $16,368 Commenced stud duties in New Zealand in 2004 Leading Progeny Satisfaction (06f, Famous Star, Sovereign Red). 3 wins at 1200m to 2011-12, CJC Racecourse Hotel Motor Lodge H., 2d Otago RC Packaging Supplies H., 3d CJC NZ Tax Refunds H., New Zealand Bloodstock Insurance H. Heydental Tourist (05g, Hey Baba Riba, Americus). 4 wins at 1200m, 1400m to 2011-12, ARC Just Juice H., LA O'Sullivan Shield, Cube H., 2d ARC Jockey of the Year H., Diocesan Parents H., Taranaki RC Revital Fertilisers H., 3d Waipa RC VE Veterinary Services H., BOP RC Aztech Signs Tauranga H.
  2. Regardless of who you choose, remember this: Of all unproven stallions, only 6/10 will leave a stakes winner. Those odds are pretty terrible, so if you want to produce a racehorse, let someone else punt their mare to the unproven brigade. There are plenty of proven horses that have already shown they can leave something with talent. Then you just need to do the hard yards, research what has already worked with them, and find one that has produced something decent to a mare that is similar to yours. I'm not going to recommend a specific stallion, as I'm completely unfamiliar with what is at stud in NZ.
  3. Depth of stallions reflects depth of investment, which reflects the economic health of the market. NZ exports over half its foal crop, so depends on other markets remaining buoyant to some degree.
  4. Thanks Dopey, you said it for me! If you look across the whole population and have enough numbers to take out all the other factors, then there is a drop off in production for both mares and stallions after they turn 16. BUT - a lot depends on the starting point. People mention Secretariat a lot as being from an older mare. She had already left Sir Gaylord when she was younger. Therefore, if a mare is already a superior producer, her odds of doing it again outstrip the rest of the population. Ditto with stallions. If you start with a stallion who is excellent in his youth, he'll be good in his older years. If you start with a stallion who is good in his youth, he'll be ok in his older years. If you start with gelati, you'll get gelati no matter how old Zabeel and Volksraad both got over 18%SW/foals in their first crop. They got around 5% in the last few crops (Z still going). To put that into context, the average for the breed is just under 2%. I'd rather have an old horse at 5% than take the punt on an unproven horse. Especially when 4/10 stallions can't leave a stakes winner AT ALL (for stallions with more than 10 foals). The problem is that most stallions begin their careers at the average or slightly better. And by the time they are 16, they aren't likely to leave any stakes winners. So you do have to be picky when you are going for an older proven stallion (or mare). I haven't done the figures on this, but stallions that have left multiple Gr1 winners are probably an ok bet at any stage, if you don't/can't do their current figures.
  5. He's the greatest sire in modern day history. I would have thought the more the better, really.
  6. Galizzz NH: 972 named foals, 76 SW SH: 526 named foals, 22 SW All up he's left 26 Gr1 winners and the following titles: Champion GB/Ire. Sire in 2008 & 2010, second in 2007. Champion GB/Ire. Sire (AEI) in 2010, second in 2008, third in 2006. Champion GB/Ire. Sire of 2YOs in 2007 & 2010. Third on French Sire List (AEI) in 2008. Much better in NH than SH, has reputation as a soft-track sire whose progeny take time (not exactly what the Aussie market are looking for) Rock of Gibraltar NH: 747 named foals, 46 SW SH: 594 named foals, 26 SW Only 7 Gr1 winners globally. Normally this performance would place him among the top commercial ranks, but he went to stud with such hype that he's probably failed to live up to (could any horse unless they were Danehill?). No championship titles, but I'd back him for a broodmare sire one in the future - all those fillies from his early books are from amazing families and this is why I give him a chance as a damsire.
  7. Two things to consider: 1. Most mares that go to stud have a first foal. 2. Mares that have more than 7 foals are more likely to be either good producers or good racehorses, skewing the quality of this sample set. I wrote about this for Breeding & Racing about a year ago (http://www.breedingracing.com if you want to contact Gary, the editor, for a back copy). A selection from the article: Arion Pedigrees provided B&R with some data to compute the likelihood of Gr1 winners coming from different foal positions. The first set of data covered all 180,846 foals born in NZ between 1970 and 1999. ... Foal Number Total Individuals % Individuals Gr1 Winners % Gr1 Winners Ratio 1-4 112849 62% 624 70% 1.1 5-8 52843 29% 221 25% 0.8 9-12 13775 8% 42 5% 0.6 13+ 1379 1% 4 0% 0.6 180846 891 Finally, remember that in racing there is an example for every theory. It is opportunity for success that is often overlooked.
  8. other interesting books on Tesio are the one written by Varola (who was a journo alive when Tesio was). and the one written by his business partner called "the tesios as i knew them"
  9. Breeding the racehorse by Tesio can be bought second hand for under US$10 at: http://www.abebooks.com/
  10. Named Foals Starters Winners Wins Placings SW (GW) Earnings AEI 964 825 551 1735 3346 58 (36) over $47m. 1.69 per foals 85.6% 57.2% 1.8 3.5 6.0% (3.7%) $49,079 per starters 66.8% 2.1 4.1 7.0% (4.4%) $57,348 Commenced stud duties in New Zealand in 1993 Champion NZ Sire in 2001-02, 2002-03, 2003-04, 2004-05, 2005-06, 2006-07, 2008-09, 2009-10, second in 2000-01, 2007-08. Champion NZ Sire of 2YOs in 1996-97. Second on NZ Sire List (Aust. & NZ figures combined) in 2004-05. His Gr1 winners: Leading Progeny SIR SLICK (01g, Paris Opera, Sir Godfrey). 22 wins from 1400m to 2000m, NZ$1,851,700, A$118,292, S$60,000, WRC Thorndon Mile, Gr.1-twice, ARC Zabeel Classic, Gr.1, New Zealand S., Gr.1, Waikato RC International S., Gr.1, Otaki Maori RC WFA S., Gr.1, Manawatu RC Awapuni Gold Cup, Gr.2-3 times, BOP RC Japan-New Zealand International Trophy, Gr.2-twice, Tauranga S., Gr.3-twice, WRC Anniversary H., L, Feilding JC Anzac 1600 H., L, ARC Coca Cola H., WRC Douro Cup, BOP RC Wealleans Groundspread H., Trac Trainers' Bonus 3YO H., 2d ARC New Zealand S., Gr.1-twice, Hawke's Bay Stoney Bridge S., Gr.1, Waikato RC International S., Gr.1, Otaki Maori RC WFA S., Gr.1, ARC Rich Hill Mile, Gr.2-twice, Manawatu RC Awapuni Gold Cup, Gr.2, BOP RC Japan New Zealand International Trophy, Gr.2, ARC Sir James Fletcher S., Gr.3, BOP RC Tauranga S., Gr.3, Rotorua Challenge P., L, ARC JRA Trophy, Skycity H., Manawatu RC Mercedes Super Bonus Prelude, Waikato RC Skycity Hamilton Casino Cup, Bloxam Burnett & Olliver H., Avondale JC Albion Hotel Juvenile S., BOP RC Brebner Print H., 3d BTC Doomben Cup, Gr.1, ARC Easter H., Gr.1-twice, WRC Captain Cook S., Gr.1, GCTC AD Hollindale S., Gr.2, ARC Great Northern Challenge S., Gr.3, Lindauer S., Gr.3, BTC Chairman's H., Gr.3, Marton JC Metric Mile, Gr.3, WRC Anniversary H., L, ARC Speight's H., Cambridge JC Presland Tocker Insurance H., Avondale JC New Zealand Bloodstock Juvenile H., Waikato RC Mandalay Bay Syndicate H., Counties RC Mondiale Freight H., Bairnsdale Cup, 4th Hawke's Bay Stoney Bridge S., Gr.1, WRC Captain Cook S., Gr.1, ARC Great Northern Challenge S., Gr.3, WRC Thompson H., Gr.3, Anniversary H., L. VINAKA (98g, Famous Star, Khozaam). 8 wins-3 at 2-to 1400m, NZ$475,900, S$10,575, WRC Telegraph H., Gr.1, ARC Railway H., Gr.1, Hawke's Bay Guineas, Gr.3, WRC Wakefield Challenge S., Gr.3, Matamata RC Slipper S., L, Hawke's Bay Curraghmore Stud 3YO S., Waikato RC Guineas Trial, Counties RC Pukekohe Motors Juvenile H., 2d Manawatu Sires' Produce S., Gr.1, Otaki Maori RC WFA S., Gr.1, ARC Eclipse S., Gr.3, Newmarket H., L, Waikato RC Fairview Ford S., L, WRC Lightning H., L, Hawke's Bay P & O Nedlloyd H., 3d ARC Railway H., Gr.1, Waikato Draught Sprint, Gr.1, Singapore TC Kranji S., 4th ARC Newmarket H., L. ONE UNDER (96f, Sir Tristram, Trictrac). 6 wins-4 at 2-to 1400m, NZ$195,425, A$19,050, ARC Ellerslie Sires' Produce S., Gr.1, Manawatu Sires' Produce S., Gr.1, Waikato RC Windsor Park Sprint H., L, ARC Ellerslie Function Centre 3YO H., 3d VATC Tranquil Star S., L, AJC Ocean & Earth H., ARC JRA Trophy, 4th VRC Yallambee Stud S., Gr.3, Egmont RC Fayette Park S., Gr.3, WRC Wellesley S., L. STAR SATIRE (97f, Kaapstad, Crest of the Wave). 5 wins-2 at 2-to 1400m, NZ$201,250, A$31,600, Otaki Maori RC WFA S., Gr.1, Masterton RC Lowland S., Gr.3, Avondale JC Cambridge Stud Juvenile H., Cambridge Thoroughbred Sales H., 2d Levin RC Bayer Classic, Gr.1, Otaki Maori RC WFA S., Gr.1, ARC Eight Carat Classic, Gr.2, Avondale JC Concorde H., Gr.2, STC Phar Lap S., Gr.2, Waikato RC Gasmate S., Gr.3, 3d ARC Hunters Inn H., 4th Hawke's Bay Gold Trail S., Gr.3. CLIFTON KING (95g, English Harbour, Le Filou). 17 wins-3 at 2-from 1000m to 1600m, R1,849,750, Gosforth Germiston November H., Gr.1, Greyville South African Guineas, Gr.1, Turffontein John Skeaping Trophy S., Gr.2, Newmarket TC Morris Lipschitz Juvenile P., Gr.3, Gosforth Snow Cruywagen H., L, Newmarket TC Syd Laird Memorial H., L, Senor Santa H., L, Scottsville Sea Cottage H., L, Turffontein Amstel Lager H., 2d Clairwood Mercury Sprint, Gr.1, Nissan Challenge, Gr.1, Scottsville Golden Spur, Gr.1, Champ de Mars Barbe Cup, 3d Kenilworth Queen's P., Gr.1, Turffontein South African Nursery P., Gr.1, Newmarket TC MEC Guineas, Gr.2, Turffontein Hawaii S., Gr.2, Nearco H., Gr.3, 4th Turffontein Horse Chestnut S., Gr.1, Gosforth Juvenile Colts & Geldings S., Gr.2, Premier's H., Gr.2. DANTELAH (94f, Icecapade, Caro). 8 wins-2 at 2-to 1200m, NZ$50,000, A$862,488, HK$249,100, VATC Oakleigh P., Gr.1, SAJC Swettenham Stud S., Gr.2, VRC Chivas Regal S., Gr.3, AJC Gimcrack S., L, VRC Red Roses S., L, QTC Sir Douglas Wadley H., L, STC Research S., L, VATC Australian H., 2d VRC Newmarket H., Gr.1, ARC Railway H., Gr.1, AJC Surround S., Gr.2, VRC Emirates Classic S., Gr.2, Rupert Steele S., Gr.3, STC Research S., L, AJC Wenona Girl H., Qld Tatt's RC Australian Post 2YO S., 3d STC Silver Slipper S., Gr.2, VATC Schillaci S., Gr.3, AJC Razor Sharp H., L, VRC Hilton on the Park Sprint H., L, STC Scuzzi Cafe 2YO H., Sheraco H., 4th AJC Light Fingers S., Gr.2, MVRC Schweppes S., Gr.2, Hong Kong Sprint, L. VELOCE BELLA (03f, Crested Wave, Sovereign Edition). 12 wins from 1200m to 2100m to 2010-11, NZ$645,925, A$20,000, Waikato RC International S., Gr.1, ARC Eight Carat Classic, Gr.2, Avondale Guineas, Gr.2, Waikato RC Sir Tristram Fillies Classic, Gr.2, Cambridge JC Travis S., Gr.2, WRC Trentham S., Gr.3, Waikato RC Skycity Hamilton Casino Cup, BOP RC Crockford Real Estate H., Hawke's Bay The Informant H., Waikato RC Katy Keen H., BOP RC John Warren Insurance 3YO H., 2d ARC Nicolas Feuillatte S., Gr.3, WRC Desert Gold S., Gr.3, ARC Great Northern Foal S., L, 3d New Zealand Oaks, Gr.1, Waikato RC International S., Gr.1, Te Aroha JC New Zealand Thoroughbred Breeders' S., Gr.1, Waikato RC Cal Isuzu S., Gr.2, Qld Tatt's RC Tattersall's Cup, Gr.3, Cambridge JC 2YO Fillies S., L, Waikato RC Skycity Hamilton Casino Cup. VELOCITEA (05f, Felix the Cat, Beaufort Sea). 7 wins-2 at 2-at 1000m, 1200m, NZ$28,750, A$537,988, SAJC Goodwood H., Gr.1, MRC Hyderabad Racing Club S., Gr.3, How Now S., Gr.3, JRA S., L, Otago RC Ford Champagne 2YO S., MRC Chaise H., Otago RC Paul Ferris Memorial 2YO Trophy, 2d SAJC Robert Sangster S., Gr.1, Hororata RC Champagne S., L, MRC Rokk Ebony H., Snitzel at Arrowfield Stud H., MVRC Ready Workforce H., 3d MRC Bletchingly S., Gr.3, Northwood Plume S., L, 4th MRC Thoroughbred Club S., Gr.3. DEZIGNA (99g, Conquistarose, Crested Wave). 11 wins from 1200m to 1600m, NZ$712,115, A$45,500, WRC Captain Cook S., Gr.1, ARC Rich Hill Mile, Gr.2, Hawke's Bay GR Kelt Memorial H., L, Waikato RC Ag & Turf Sprint H., L, Whangarei RC Spring P., ARC Get2market.co.nz H., Counties RC South City Seafoods H., Matamata RC Comag H., 2d WRC Telegraph H., Gr.1, Thorndon Mile, Gr.1, ARC Champions Mile, Gr.1, QTC Marco Polo Reckless H., L, ARC Pipers Patent Attorneys H., Waikato Times 3YO S., Manawatu RC Rich Hill Stud 3YO H., Matamata RC Martin Althuizen (Matrix) H., Taranaki RC Kingsway Menswear Cambridge Suits H., 3d WRC Telegraph H., Gr.1, ARC Zabeel Classic, Gr.1, New Zealand S., Gr.1-twice, Avondale JC Concorde H., Gr.2-twice, QTC Sir Byrne Hart S., Gr.2, ARC Newmarket H., L, Hawke's Bay GR Kelt Memorial H., L, Hastings RSA H., Qld Tatt's RC Kramer Technologies Quality H., Bay of Plenty Cup, ARC Lindauer Grandeur H., Lion Red 3YO H., WRC Sun Micro Systems H., Cambridge JC William Inglis & Son H., 4th ARC Railway H., Gr.1, Otaki Maori RC WFA S., Gr.1, QTC Cup, Gr.2, CJC Coupland's Bakeries Mile, Gr.2, Manawatu RC Awapuni Gold Cup, Gr.2, BOP RC Japan-New Zealand International Trophy, Gr.2-twice, ARC Sir James Fletcher S., Gr.3, Hawke's Bay Gold Cup, Gr.3, Rotorua Cup, Gr.3, Hawke's Bay GR Kelt Memorial H., L, Matamata RC Stanley Group S., L. ORANGE COUNTY (02g, Kaapstad, Super Gray). 9 wins-2 at 2-to 1400m, A$842,875, MRC Sir Rupert Clarke S., Gr.1, VRC Paris Lane S., L, Chubb P., L, Cleandomain 2YO H., MRC Heroic H., David Owen H., Zephyr Bay H., MVRC Gillies Famous Pies 2YO H., Carlton Draught Sprint H., 2d MVRC Crystal Mile H., Gr.2, MRC Bletchingly S., Gr.3, VRC Aurie's Star H., L, Roy Higgins H., MVRC Balcopine 2YO H., 3d VRC Blamey S., Gr.2, MVRC Crystal Mile H., Gr.2, VRC Bobbie Lewis H., Gr.3, MRC Doveton S., L, Sir John Monash S., L, VRC Peter Rowland at Flemington H., 4th MVRC Australia S., Gr.1, Ian McEwen S., Gr.3. ZOLA (95f, Chem, Long Row). Third top filly on The 1997-98 Australasion 2YO Classification.5 wins-4 at 2-from 1000m to 1600m, NZ$152,625, A$79,800, ARC Ellerslie Sires' Produce S., Gr.1, Waikato RC Fairview Ford S., L, VATC Marvel Loch H., WRC Horse & Hound 2YO S., NZ Magic Millions 2YO Fillies S., 2d STC Tea Rose S., Gr.2, Phar Lap S., Gr.2, 3d AJC Light Fingers S., Gr.2, 4th VRC Matron S., L. MILITARY MOVE (06g, Just a Dancer, Mussorgsky). Second on 2009-10 NZ 3YO Free H (1601+m).4 wins from 1200m to 2400m to 2011-12, NZ$1,502,775, HK$2,796,250, New Zealand Derby, Gr.1, HKJC Egret H., Peninsula Golden Jubilee Challenge Cup, 2d New Zealand Two Thousand Guineas, Gr.1, ARC Bonecrusher S., L, HKJC Broadwood H., Haier H., 3d Wellington Guineas, Gr.2, HKJC Midland Holdings Cup H., 4th Waikato Guineas, Gr.3. WILLY SMITH (01g, Sound Reason, Roi Lear). 6 wins from 1600m to 3200m, NZ$377,850, Wellington Cup, Gr.1, Otaki Maori RC St Leger Trial, Avondale JC Direct Forms H., WRC Summer Cup, BOP RC Mount Cossie Club H., 2d ARC Zabeel Classic, Gr.1, City of Auckland Cup, Gr.2, Manawatu Cup Trial, Waikato RC First Sovereign Trust H.-twice, Hawke's Bay DHL Global Forwarding H., 3d WRC Trentham S., Gr.3, Manawatu RC Summer Cup, ARC NB Holland Medal 3YO H., Lone Star H., 4th WRC Trentham S., Gr.3, New Zealand St Leger, L. DISTILL (08g, Casual Lies, Success Express). 2 wins-1 at 2-at 1000m, 1600m to 2011-12, NZ$164,375, Levin Classic, Gr.1, 3d Taranaki RC 2YO Classic, Gr.3, 4th ARC Diamond S., Gr.1.
  11. Ok, so I'm being picky, but it's my job to know these details. In two articles today, SMH's Richard Hinds has stated that there are only 2 AUS bred horses in the Cup. Yes, Older than Time is by a stallion that stands in NZ, but she was BORN at Gooree Stud in NSW - making her AUSTRALIAN bred. A small detail, but important in the rant about the lack of stayers in Australia. Are the NZers also lamenting their lack of staying depth with only 3 stayers in the Cup as well? Are we all just over-reacting??
  12. International Cup field, from the point of view of breeding: Only 3 from NZ and 3 from AUS.
  13. People have such short memories. The last three Cup winners are: Americain (USA) Shocking (AUS) Viewed (AUS)
  14. Here is a longer definition (in draft version for a project I'm working on): Pinhooker - A person who buys a young horse with the specific intention of re-selling it as an older horse at a profit. Most often, horses are purchased as weanlings and re-sold as yearlings, but can also be purchased as yearlings and re-sold as young 2yos in training. The advantage that the pinhooker has over a breeder is that they can see the horse when they buy it, so there is less risk than breeding a horse (where the genetic lottery applies). There is also less time between the initial decision and the sale time, so there is (usually) less fluctuation in the market. This works both ways, a stallion that is fashionable will command good prices for his weanlings and thus the profit margin will be lower when you re-sell 10 months later. While an unfashionable stallion has little time for his progeny to race well and improve his