N1MUE

Two losses in a row so time to right the ship: Rotorua R4 Libretti paying $1.93 to finish ahead of Third Time Lucky. Third Time Lucky is second up on a quick backup and might prefer it a bit wetter. Libretti should get a nice trip and the jockey seems to ride well.

R1 - 6/8R2 - 2/4 BBR3 - 2/8R4 - 7/11R5 - 1/5R6 - 1/2R7 - 4/6R8 - 2/8R9 - 7/13 BBR10 - 1/2 Thanks Peter. Good luck Brian - only six selections in common so should be an interesting match.

Whoa massive over-reaction! I said no disrespect to those who've put up their hard earned - did you miss that? Simply observing that if you are good enough to pick 5 from 5 you deserve a big reward so go out and bet a dollar. I've run competitions on the tipping forum and put up my own hard earned, so don't need your ire. Cheers

yep probably worth us all taking even a $1 multi with our 5 picks, because if you manage to pull that one off you'd want something better than a meal at HQ and $400 betting money (no disrespect to the people putting up their hard earned) I think you can pretty confidently say that nobody will pick all 5 winners

St Leger - Felaar Cuddle - Symphonic Guineas - Lubaya Lightning - Ferrando Oaks - Savvy Coup

Yep Felaar an anchor. Ferrando maybe another? Likes Trentham, has had a nice little freshen up and jogged home in a trial recently. Some will say Scott Base but not an anchor for me.

not with that guy on board

Race 4 Hawera Rosetta paying $1.76 to finish ahead of Smokin Hot. Two reasonable thirds in ok fields lately and appears to jump well so should get handy. Smokin Hot only battled the last two runs and only gets 0.5kgs of the 2kgs it should otherwise get for putting a lesser jockey up.

Yep fair cop! I'm batting 0% on that sample of one

Yes I understand that, but that's a different statement, ie. #1 winning 16% of all handicap races that #1 contested. Interesting that #1 was scratched nearly 14% of all handicap races.

It always amuses me when people pull out some data to support their argument, yet they have no idea what the data means. Yeah I know that's a sad thing to be amused by but I am a bit of a maths geek

You might want to check your data and your interpretation. If you're saying that this table suggests that #1 wins 16% of all handicap races, then the total data suggests all saddlecloths combined win 155% of all handicap races??? That's an awful lot of dead-heats

And in R3 I have Hes Mi Brother paying $2.03 to finish ahead of Nightcap. Betting against the fav based on its jockey.

Better day yesterday and now 17 from 22 (77%) with a 45% cumulative profit. In the first today at Gorrrrr I'm on Qashqai paying $1.85 to finish ahead of Our Boy Scotty. They met back in early February and Qashqai finished half a length in front. I also like the jockey match-up here.

That could take Peter all night Hesi

1 in 39 (assuming picks are independent - less if the second picker hedges some of the first picker's rougher selections)

I thought I heard somewhere that 1kg is worth a length - maybe more over 3200m, so yes the 0.5kgs might have been the difference between the horse winning and losing. I agree Bosson is worth several lengths but that's not the question here - he would have been worth another 1/2 length had he ridden at the carded weight.

I think it's completely random Hesi. Peter, any thoughts on the higher seeded captain picking matchups (if they wish) in the play-offs? I won't have to concern myself the way we're travelling at the moment but will add a bit of interest.

or unless Miss Que runs the quinella can't seem to win a trick (which is fitting given our team name)

He did, the 1410.00 is just a typo - should be 141.00. Have a look at the team totals.

Sorry team - woeful performance from me today (once again). However by some crazy turn of events, Sugar Bella could still win it for us in the last (provided it doesn't pay too much).

These close finishes are hurting. First Ja Ja Binks beaten a lip and now Five To Midnight. Love this game.

1. 4/7 2. 5/7 3. 5/6 4. 6/14 5. 1/2 6. 8/10 7. 3/12 BB 8. 1/3 9. 4/9 10 7/9 BB Good luck Jen. Thanks Peter - get well soon!