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We'll get to the weekend action presently but a quick report from a sunny and warm Doha (no, I wasn't there) where British trained horses walked off with three of the four local Group races on offer. BRAVE EMPEROR took home £224k for the Middleham Racing Syndicate when winning the Mile for trainer Archie Watson and jockey Luke Morris. The 1200m Sprint went to that old stick EMARAATY ANA who has run well in Group 1 races such as the Nunthorpe and the Haydock Sprint Trophy won £180k for his connections boosting his win and place total to £973k. The feature £1.2 million Amir Trophy went to a man who doesn't really need the money in the form of Sheikh Mohammad as REBEL'S ROMANCE ran out an emphatic winner under William Buick for Charlie Appleby. This is his biggest pay day since taking the 2022 Breeders Cup Turf but he seems to thrive on flat tracks, fast ground and 2400m. He failed in the Turf Classic at Belmont Park when the track was hit by a deluge of rain. He was perhaps fortunate as ZEFFIRO was coming to challenge when swerving left up the home straight forfeiting valuable ground and momentum. I couldn't understand this as he runs right handed all the time in Hong Kong but I'd love to see him at Ascot but swerving left could see him ending up in the Royal Enclosure. ZEFFIRO led a 2-3-4 for Japan with SATONO GLANZ and NORTH BRIDGE collecting minor money (not that I would call £120k for finishing fourth all that minor). The other European horses disapppointed with ISRAR and POINT LONSDALE in the last three along with PASSION FOR GLORY.

It's a big issue up here with the tv channels in general and they did some research showing the number of races jumping late increased markedly in 2023. Until a couple of years ago, the gap between races on the daily programme in the betting shops was five minutes but in order to squeeze in more races, the gap has been cut to 2-3 minutes which is fine for most flat races but not much use for a 4800m chase which takes 6 minutes to run. Races go off late for all sorts of reason but ITV, Racing UK and Sky Sports are all pusing the courses to have every runner in the paddock 10 minutes before the off and get them to the start, loaded and dispatched to time - again, fine with experienced handicappers but 2-y-o can be a real problem and there's again pressure for starters to be much less forgiving on those showing any reluctance to go in the stalls. However, we do have BHA sponsored cross-course co-operation when meetings are abandoned - the times at other tracks are often adjusted to keep a regular flow in the shops rather than having a gap where the abandoned race would have been.

The view up here is the Pattern has become diluted with too many races across the Continent and this is an attempt to restore some quality. The Commonwealth, Cup has been going since 2015 and started well with MUHARRAR and the winners have often been decent but the placed horses have not enhanced the general quality of the race. There is anger in the UK about the failure to support the promotion of the City of York over 1400m to Group 1 status while the French aren't happy about the demotion of the Saint Alary.

Almost spring like in London - 17c in mid February and it's basically removed any doubts about Saturday's meetings proceeding though there have been a couple of abandonments in midweek. At Ascot, the ground has improved to Good to Soft and just four go in the Grade 1 Ascot Chase which looks a match between L'HOMME PRESSE and PIC D'ORHY. If the former is really a Gold Cup horse, he needs to win this but PIC D'ORHY is very good on this track and the drying ground will suit. 5/2 about the latter looks a decent play. The Reynoldstown for the staying novice chasers has five runners but it's a closely matched group. APPLE AWAY has eased from Evens to 7/5 as a result of the drying ground and support has come for HENRY'S FRIEND from the in-form Pauling stable who has been clipped from 6s to 9/2. He'll need to improve for the first time cheekpieces in this company but we know the ground will be ideal. I prefer KILBEG KING whose Kauto Star third place reads well in this company. It's still Heavy and likely to be holding at Haydock where six go in the Rendlesham over 4850m for the hurdlers. Paul Nicholls has supplemented RED RISK who was runner up to BOTOX HAS in the West Yorkshire at Wetherby back in November. That was three months ago and RED RISK was subsequently well held in the Long Walk. BOTOX HAS is joint ante post favourite with BUTCH who won a handicap at Cheltenham on New Years Day and we know loves heavy turf. SOUNDS RUSSIAN was brought down when last seen in the Gold Cup - back over hurdles is interesting but I'd be surprised if he was good enough. The Albert Bartlett for the staying novice hurdlers over 4850m has 10 runners. LATENIGHTPASS is top rated but his last two runs have been over the cross country steeplechase course at Cheltenham so it's probably best left to ISAAC DES OBEAUX who is untried beyond 4000m but has always looked a relentless galloper. At Wincanton, the standing water has gone and the ground is now Soft, Heavy in places. Whether that's dry enough for RUBAUD remains to be seen - we know going right handed is his thing as wins in decent company here and at Kempton confirm and a reproduction of his Christmas Hurdle run behind CONSTITUTION HILL will be good enough to win the Grade 2 Kingwell.

Not a Group 1 race but a very valuable race is being run at Doha on Saturday morning (UK). The Amir Trophy over 2400m goes for £1.12 million and has attracted plenty of European and Japanese interest. Ryan Moore is riding POINT LONSDALE for Aidan O'Brien while Godolphin have two runners - REBEL'S ROMANCE (William Buick riding for Charlie Appleby) and PASSION FOR GLORY (TOm Marquand up for Saeed Bin Suroor). ISRAR is the Shadwell runner having been runner up in the Bahrain Trophy over 400m shorter in November. Japan has three runners - NORTH BRIDGE was last seen finishing 18 lengths behind EQUINOX in the autumn Tenno Sho while ZEFFIRO ran a fine second in the Hong Kong Vase in mid December. SATONO GLANZ is a top handicapper in Japan and proven at the trip but has never run to Group 1 level. The locals have their contenders - HAUNTED DREAM was a decent handicapper in Britain last summer but is now with Al Jehani. Qatar have also recruited the useful French galloper SIMCA MILLE who was runner up in the Ganay and won the Grosser Preis von Berlin. He was last seen when tenth in the Arc only six and a half lengths behind ACE IMPACT. Finally, we have another ex-British galloper JEFF KOONS who was with the Gosdens and has already won the Qatar Derby over 2000m in January.

Another weekend beckons and despite more rain in the weather forecast this week, the three Saturday jumps meetings seem confident of going ahead without problem. Ascot stages the main meeting but only five have been entered for the Grade 1 Ascot Chase over 4200m. L'HOMME PRESSE is 4/7 after his triumphant return at Lingfield when he won the Fleur de Lys though I'm not sure his defeat of PROTEKTORAT was all it seemed given the latter now seems more of a speed type. It had been 391 days since L'HOMME PRESSE had unseated in the 2022 King George and he had won that year's Brown Advisory at Cheltenham. He's generally regarded as the main British hope against GALOPIN DES CHAMPS in the Gold Cup and if so he ought to be winning this. He faces course specialist PIC D'ORHY who won the 1965 in November but in this last year was thrashed by SHISHKIN who is perhaps the other big British Gold Cup hope. PIC D'ORHY has won Grade 1 races at 4000m but he's just below the very best of the staying chasers.AHOY SENOR and FAKIR D'OUDAIRIES have both won Grade 1 races in their time but neither has run well this season and both have a bit to prove in this class of race. The Grade 2 Reynoldstown is the last significant pre-Cheltenham race for the staying novice chasers. I saw BRAVE KINGDOM win on chase debut at Plumpton and he followed up in a much better race at Newbury. That gives him a chance here but he's only third highest rated among the seven entries. APPLE AWAY was second in a Grade 2 at Warwick in mid January while KILBEG KING arguably has the best form despite being only third last time out as that was in the Kauto Star behind the superb IL EST FRANCAIS. Up at Haydock, the ground is Heavy and the two pre-Cheltenham Grade 2 races are for the staying hurdlers. The novices get their go in the Albert Bartlett Trial over 4800m and with fifteen entered this could be quite an open race. LATENIGHTPASS from the Skelton yard catches my eye while the more experienced stayers get their chance in the Rendlesham which isn't a strong heat. BOTOX HAS has plenty of claims as he usually mixes it in the Grade 1 events and I quite like NEMEAN LION who is a tough type for whom the step up in trip could be useful. At Wincanton, there is currently standing water on the track but the clerk is optimistic they'll be fine to race albeit on Heavy turf for the Grade 2 Kingwell over 3200m for the hurdlers. NEMEAN LION is in this as well but favourite is RUBAUD who was ten lengths inferior to CONSTITUTION HILL in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. Given I thought the track and ground were perfect for RUBAUD, he was brushed aside by the Champion Hurdle favourite with contempt. This is much more his grade but the ground is a concern. Back on the flat and disappointing news from the European Pattern Meeting today that applications to have the 1400m City of York and the 3200m Champions Day Stayers races elevated from Group 2 to Group 1 were rejected. The big news was the demotion of the Saint Alary from Group 1 to Group 2 while the Commonwealth Cup at Ascot has been put on notice it could lose its Group 1 status. One British Group 3 and two Listed races were removed completely from the Pattern. The issue of good horses being sold from Europe especially to Hong Kong and Australia was raised as a serious concern.

Looking back at yesterday's Newbury action where the ground, although officially Heavy, Soft in places was more wet than holding and the horses seemed to be getting through it well. The Denman saw SHISHKIN come through his Gold Cup Trial with a convincing win but whether we've seen the Gold Cup winner is debatable. His jumping remains prone to if not errors then leaps which lose ground and momentum but after the self inflicted travail at Ascot and misfortune in the King George you could hear the relief from trainer Nicky Henderson the horse had come through the race and was back on track. HITMAN was second and he ran well until emptying just before the last. He's rated 21 lbs inferior to SHISHKIN and will likely go for the Ryanair and that might now be the plan for PROTEKTORAT who led but ran and jumped with too much exuberance and was beaten after two out. Many now think a drop back in distance is what this free running type needs and with ALLAHO on the sidelines, the Ryanair is shaping up to be the race of the Festival. In the Game Spirit, EDITEUR DU GITE was a late scratching but this was an impressive performance from EDWARDSTONE on whom the tactics were very different. He was allowed to jump and run and took his fences with much more enthusiasm and with BOOTHILL falling two out, EDWARDSTONE came home unchallenged by 40 lengths. All well and good but this was a million miles from the Champion Chase at Cheltenham where it's likely JONBON will contest the lead with EDWARDSTONE and all that will do is set the race up for EL FABIOLO but we know EDWARDSTONE will be staying on so could be each way value. Just a note on today's action at Exeter and I wouldn't normally mention a 3650m maiden hurdle but it was won by ABSOLUTE STEEL who returned at odds of 200/1 beating the 4/9 favourite who looked a shade reluctant (the phrase "dodgepot" comes to mind). We've had nine or ten 200/1 winners since the abolition of betting tax, the longest priced winner in the UK was a horse called EQUINOCTAL who won a hurdle at Kelso in 2001 at odds of 250/1 while Ireland has had two 300/1 winners in the past 10 years.

After a relatively dry spell, the winter rains have returned with a vengeance. Tomorrow's Warwick card, featuring the Grade 2 Kingmaker, was lost after 36mm of rain fell on the track. Newbury are expecting to race despite having had 44mm (nearly two inches) of rain since Tuesday but the ground has not surprisingly been downgraded significantly to Heavy, Soft in places. Five stand in the Denman over 4750m but the rain has caused SHISHKIN to ease from 2/5 to 8/11 and it's a concern. He has form on soft but this trip on heavy ground will be a challenge and it may be PROTEKTORAT can take advantage. We know the ground and trip hold no fears and chasing home L'HOMME PRESSE in the Fleur de Lys at Lingfield was decent if not spectacular. There's been support for SAM BROWN from 20s to 12s and he's a thorough stayer who fell at The Chair in the National. He won a veterans race at Warwick last time but this is much tougher. Five also stand in the Game Spirit over 3250m and the money has come for EDWARDSTONE against BOOTHILL whose best form is on better ground. Back at this trip, EDWARDSTONE looks the one with the change in ground conditions but he was beaten by EDITEUR DU GITE in the 2023 Clarence House at Cheltenham on soft ground. Apart from the Desert Orchid win at Christmas, EDITEUR DU GITE's form has been moderate and while we can probably excuse EDWARDSTONE for not seeing out the trip last time and going down twice to JONBON in Grade 1 races, there'll be no excuses tomorrow.

That is good news. We lost a promising young rider last Sunday at Charing point-to-point in Kent. Keagan Kirkby, who was 25 and worked at the Paul Nicholls yard in Ditcheat, was killed when his horse veered sideways and crashed into one of the fences. Mercifully, these occurances are rare but nonetheless tragic for all concerned.

The second day of the Dublin Racing Festival saw a further four Grade 1 races and little in the way of the Mullins juggernaut it seemed. With fresh ground and a dry night, conditions had improved to Yielding to Soft on the steeplechase course and Soft on the hurdles track. The opening Ladbrokes Novices Chase degenerated into farce with three overnight withdrawals leaving just a match and to make matters worse, a match between two horses from the same stable, yes, you’ve guessed it, Willie Mullins. In many jurisdictions, the race would have been scrapped and it’s far from a satisfactory advert for Irish (or British) jump racing when a 90,000 euro race is a match. GAELIC WARRIOR, winner of the Faugheen over 4000m at Limerick over Christmas, was 4/7 against FACT OR FILE who had won the Beginners steeplechase at Leopardstown over Christmas which GALOPIN DES CHAMPS had won back in 2021. This was an embarrassing non-event with FACT OR FILE clearly going better than GAELIC WARRIOR from some way out and many thought Paul Townend should have pulled up the favourite before the last (it’s not like the owner needs the money) but instead the horse barely raised a leg and sent Townend out the front door. That’s not FACT OR FILE’s fault and he looked very good, and he is 10/3 for the 4800m Brown Advisory and 2/1 favourite for the 4000m Turners at Cheltenham. That’s short enough based purely on the evidence and one thing I can say with confidence – it won’t be a match at Cheltenham, and they’ll be going a lot harder and faster from the start which will test the jumping. The Novice hurdlers had their race in the 3200m Tattersalls Ireland Novices Hurdle. This looked an interesting match between BALLYBURN, who had been an impressive winner at Christmas and FARRON GLORY, who had won the Royal Bond at Fairyhouse and who was travelling strongly in the Formby at Aintree on Boxing Day when crashing at the second last. BALLYBURN continues to impress – he’s a relentless galloper and I could see him winning a Gold Cup one day. That said, he doesn’t seem sort of tactical speed at 3200m either and Mullins and connections now have to decide whether to go for the Supreme (7/4 favourite) or the Baring Bingham over 4000m for which BALLYBURN is 3/1. I’d personally go for the latter as on quicker ground they’ll go strong over 3200m, and it may just be that the 4000m trip will put the horse more in his comfort zone. SLADE STEEL did little wrong – he’s 20s for the Supreme and 6s for the Baring Bingham and if BALLYBURN went for the former, the 6s would be a knocking bet for the latter. FARRON GLORY stopped very quickly after the second last and was beaten a very long way. The third Grade 1 was the Dublin Chase over 3400m and the dominant speed chaser currently, EL FABIOLO, went off at 4/11 to beat four rivals, three of whom were stable companions. A thoroughly dominant display from EL FABIOLO who has won all six of his steeplechases including four Grade 1 races and is 4/9 for the Champion Chase at Cheltenham. While I’m not sure I would judge JONBON solely on his Clarence House defeat, the fact remains EL FABIOLO was superior in the Arkle last spring and there’s little evidence the gap has closed and if anything, it may have widened. DINOBLUE has been put in at 11/8 for the Grade 2 Mares Chase at Cheltenham and that looks reasonable on this evidence. She’s a talented mare and a proven Grade 1 performer and against all but the very best geldings can more than hold her own. Finally, we had the Irish Champion Hurdle over 3200m which saw STATE MAN sent off at 2/5 against three opponents including the useful staying hurdler BOB OLINGER, the only non-Mullins runner in the field. Very few problems for the defending champion – I actually think the further he went the better he went, and I’d love to see him over 4000m at Aintree where I think he has a better evidence of beating CONSTITUTION HILL. STATE MAN is 3s for the Champion Hurdle with CONSTITUTION HILL 1/3 so call it a match if you want. I just think 4000m at Aintree would stretch CONSTITUTION HILL’s stamina. BOB OLINGER put in a much better effort and ran home strongly. He’s 14s for the Champion Hurdle but the 4800m of the stayers looks a much more interesting option. He could also wait for the 4000m at Aintree but if either of the top two turned up, he’d be chasing their shadow again. Eight Grade 1 races at the Dublin Racing Festival – all went to horses trained by Willie Mullins and while some of the results on Saturday didn’t perhaps go according to plan, GALOPIN DES CHAMPS, EL FABIOLO, BALLYBURN and STATE MAN all came through their prep races for Cheltenham without any issues and while the last named mat have to settle for second at Cheltenham, the other three all look like Festival winners. In a week which has seen the Irish dominate the Grand National with 61 of the 94 entries coming from across the Irish Sea, the apparent strength of Irish jump racing looks increasingly built on weak foundations with the total dominance of Willie Mullins at the highest level almost embarrassing. To be fair, the big handicaps at the Dublin Festival were well contested – 25 in the 90,000 Euro handicap chase over 4200m and 19 in the 60,000 Euro Mares handicap hurdle – and it may well be the betting interest at Cheltenham will be in the big handicaps rather than the championship races.

I'll catch up on Sunday's racing from Leopardstown in due time. This coming weekend we have more Cheltenham Trial-type races at Newbury and Warwick. At Newbury we have the Grade 2 Game Spirit over 3200m for which BOOTHILL and EDWARDSTONE are joint favourites at 6/4. Having twice finished second to JONBON, latterly in the Tingle Creek, EDWARDSTONE was stepped up to 4000m for the Silvinaico Conti at Kempton and was a dismal fourth beaten 25 lengths. You could argue he didn't stay the trip but he was too poor for that to be the only explanation. BOOTHILL has progressed through Grade 3 and won a Grade 2 at Newbury but fell in the Desert Orchid at Kempton. I think I prefer him to EDWARDSTONE back at 3200m. EDITEUR DU GITE looked very good when winning a handicap over course and distance but was beaten miles in the Clarence House at Cheltenham. Back at Newbury, I think we'll see a much better one and I think he might upset the two favourites. The Denman over 4750m is Newbury's Gold Cup trial and sees the return of SHISHKIN who is 2/5 to atone for an unlucky stumble at the second last in the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day. Would he have won? Hard to know but it was a serious effort in Grade 1 company. PROTEKTORAT was no match for L'HOMME PRESSE at Lingfield in the Fleur de Lys and seems to have lost a bit of his edge from last year. At Warwick just five have been entered for the Kingmaker Novices Chase over 3200m. MATATA was second in the Lightning and that's useful form in this grade. He has eight lengths to spare over PEMBROKE and a more likely opponent is the unbeaten mare ARCLIGHT who has won two Listed Mares chases but now goes up in grade against the geldings.

The talk is they are going to swerve Cheltenham and wait for Aintree - a much sharper track and less of a stamina test.

Slightly ahead of the game for a change so a look back at yesterday's racing (Saturday) in order. Five championship Grade 1 races on offer, four at Leopardstown and one at Sandown. After morning rain at Leopardstown, the ground was Soft all over for the opening day of the Dublin Racing Festival which in recent years has been dominated by Willie Mullins and once again he dominated the opening day races. The Nathaniel Lacy Solicitors Novices Hurdle over 4450m was the Irish trial for what is still known as the Ballymore at Cheltenham - it's perhaps been devalued by the coming of the Albert Bartlett over 4800m and the two races tend to fish in the same pool for contenders. Mullins had four of the six runners and jockey bookings suggested PREDATORS GOLD was the best of them. Not the last time on the day's card Danny Mullins would be on the right one as DANCING CITY outstayed PREDATORS GOLD from the last with JETARA not far back in third. Some of the jumping was a bit novicey to be honest and DANCING CITY had led before JETARA took over and the mare still led on the home turn but stamina kicked in and DANCING CITY had that in abundance. He's 10s for the Ballymore but a more interesting 9s for the Albert Bartlett which looks a better option. PREDATORS GOLD ran okay - he ,might be suited by better ground and a stronger gallop but he's walked out to 16s and 20s for the big novice hurdle events which look wide open. The second race was the Spring Juvenile Hurdle which again saw a strong Mullins respresentation. Impressive Punchestown winner STORM HEART was ridden by Paul Townend and went off favourite but there were plent yof unknown or unexposed types. 2-0 to Danny Mullins and a 1-2-3-4 for the Mullins stable. KARGESE did this well and was given a superb ride by Danny who kept her close to the pace and saved as much ground as possible. I'm not sure this was one of Paul Townend's finest hours - he raced wide throughout on the favourite and when the pace quickened had too much ground to make up. MAJBOROUGH is obviously talented but his jumping let him down badly here - he's the one who I think might prefer some better ground at Prestbury Park. All this has left impressive Cheltenham winner SIR GINO 4/5 for the Triumph with KARGESE at 5s - this may be one of those occasions where the best novice isn't in Ireland. Last year's impressive Supreme winner MARINE NATIONALE was 4/7 for the Ladbrokes Arkle Chase having made an impressive start to his chasing career over course and distance. Mullins had three of his five opponents including former Bumper winner FACILE VEGA and Faugheen runner up IL ETAIT TEMPS. Danny Mullins made it 3-0 riding a 534-1 treble bringing IL ETAIT TEMPS to mug long time leader FOUND A FIFTY in the final 50m. They dawdled and then sprinted from the second last. FOUND A FIFTY nearly did it but we know IL ETAIT TEMPS is decent and also stays 4000m. As a trial for the Arkle at Cheltenham, it told us very little. FACILE VEGA looked short of pace and is crying out for 4000m while MARINE NATIONALE found nothing when the pace quickened and was beaten when blundering at the last. The British contenders may well think they've got more than a chance on this evidence but the bookies still have the principals in this race dominating the ante post market. MARINE NATIONALE is 11/4 with IL ETAIT TEMPS at 7/2 and FOUND A FIFTY at 4s. I can't have MARINE NATIONALE on this evidence but the other two have solid claims. The feature Irish Gold Cup had just four runners but was round three of theclashes between Gold Cup winner GALOPIN DES CHAMPS who went off 1/3 to make it 2-2 with FASTORSLOW who had beaten him teice at Punchestown, once at the ned of last season and again at the beginning of this campaign in the John Durkan. GALOPIN DES CHAMPS had put up an imperious performance in the Savils at Christmas. Not perhaps the romp we had seen at Christmas but Paul Townend didn't have to get too serious on GALOPIN DES CHAMPS to hold off FASTORSLOW who certainly wasn't disgraced in second. They are the front two in the Gold Cup betting at 8/13 and 4s respectively. GALOPIN DES CHAMPS does what you want a steeplechaser to do - jump well and run well. He has stamina in abundance and the 5250m of the Gold Cup is familiar territory while I think that may be far enough for FASTORSLOW. It may be GERRI COLOMBE who chases him up the Cheltenham hill but you'd be a brave man to bet against last year's winner following up on this evidence as I think the stronger pace of a Gold Cup will suit him. At Sandown we had the Scilly Isles Novices Chase over 4000m for the intermediate novices. Favourite was HERMES ALLEN who had chased home the brilliant IL EST FRANCAIS (perhaps the one horse anywhere currently who could give GALOPIN DES CHAMPS something to think about) in the Kauto Star at Kempton on Boxing Day. LE PATRON had won the Henry VIII over 3200m and DJELO had been knocked over at the first fence at LIngfield in the Lightning. A wonderful display of front running jumping from the outsider NICKLE BACK who seemed to take to Sandown and the seven fences down the back straight like the proverbial duck to water. DJELO was the only one to make any kind of race with it with the winner over the last two and was closing at the line. A first Grade 1 for jockey James Best and trainer Sarah Humphrey but the race was marred by the death of HERMES ALLEN who took a fatal fall when beaten at the second last. LE PATRON patently didn't stay in the tacky ground. Whether NICKLE BACK will get the same amount of rope in the Turners is doubtful but he's 14s with DJELO 20s. The Turners market would likely have been changed by the races at Leopardastown run on Sunday.

Sunday's declarations are through for the second day of the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown. The Ladbrokes Novices Chase over 4150m has five runners, three trained by Willie Mullins and two trained by Gordon Elliott. The Mullins runners look better with GAELIC WARRIOR aiming to follow up his Faugheen success over a notch further. This isn't a penalty kick as stable companion FACT TO FILE is no mug having won by 17 lengths over course and distance at Christmas. GRANGELARE CROSS won the Neville Hotels over 4800m at Christmas and this trip on this better ground may be too sharp. Mullins has half the field in the Tattersalls Ireland Novices Hurdle over 3200m. BALLYBURN bolted up at Christmas but that was over 4000m and I'm to be convinced 3200m is his trip in this grade. FARREN GLORY looked the likely winner of the Formby at Aintree on Boxing Day when falling at the second last. If any jumping issues have been sorted he has a huge chance. I take him to win as SLADE STEEL, like the favourite BALLYBURN, may prefer 4000m. Mullins has four of the five in the Dublin Chase over 3400m. DINOBLUE beat GENTLEMAN DU MEE in the Paddy's Rewards at Christmasn but EL FABIOLO was last season's top novice chaser slamming JONBON in the Arkle and looked in good form at Cork. With JONBON's surprise defeat last week this is a real opportunity for EL FABIOLO to stamp his authority on the speed chase division. Mullins has three of the five in the Irish Champion Hurdle. STATE MAN won this last year and is 2/7 to follow up. He's won the Matheson and the Morgiana already this term and won this last year - he holds all his four opponents on past form and looks a pretty good thing to confirm his status as Ireland's top hurdler and likely runner up to CONSTITUTION HILL in March. We get another 10 on free to air television on Sunday with five from Scottish Trials Day at Musselburgh.

NO track is all-weather by definition. They use the term up here yet we've had meetings lost to fog, high winds, snow and flooding. It's all very well the track being raceable if the roads round the track are flooded or covered in a foot of snow or if a river has burst its banks and inundated the course buildings. I remember one particularly snowy spell and the Lingfield clerk was bemoaning having to abandon the meeting on Police advice. "The track's fine and perfectly raceable". he said, "but the Police have told me the surrounding roads are snowbound and no one can get here." Yes, fantastic track, no runners, no riders, no staff, no punters but otherwise good to go....

I've just seen - four seconds and a third from last Saturday's Cheltenham selections - what I call a "crossbar afternoon". That's distinct from a Beefeater card - "very small stakes". Moving rapidly on.... In advance of the Dublin Racing Festival, some concerning news about Irish racing in 2023: Irish entries, runners, field sizes and attendances all down in 2023 | Racing Post The fall in attendances was just under 1% so nothing too much to worry about but more worrying are the numbers on runners and field sizes. The Free to Air racing on Saturday afternoon is showing 10 races from three venues in three hours so it's going to be a busy time for the armchair punter. The final declarations are through - five go in the Scilly Isles Novices Chase at Sandown. Four are rated between 148 and 150 so you'd think it would be quite a tight betting heat but HERMES ALLEN is Evens favourite following his Feltham second to the brilliant IL EST FRANCAIS who is 5/2 for the Turners at Cheltenham (if he comes over). Back over the shorter trip and on this stiffer track, I can see why HERMES ALLEN is supported. DJELO was knocked over at the first fence in the Lightning at Lingfield having won the Noel at Ascot before Christmas. LE PATRON won the Henry VIII on heavt ground beating COLONEL HARRY and his win over 4000m at Newbury was when he was a blot on the handicap. I thought COLONEL HARRY did it well in the Towton and he's a sporting bet at 6s. At Leopardstown, the hurdle course has improved to Soft after dry, mild day. Just six go in the Nathaniel Lacy Novices Hurdle. Willie Mullins trains four including the favourite PREDATORS GOLD and second favourite LOUGHGLYNN. The latter won a Grade 2 at Limerick over Christmas while the former was runner up in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown the same day. Both ar eobviously decent - JETARA gets 7lbs as a mare but now goes against the geldings after three wins among her own gender. Mullins has six of the eleven in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle. Stable jockey Paul Townend is on STORM HEART who looked very good on hurdling debut at Punchestown. KALA CONTI is a course and distance winner having won the Grade 2 equivalent at Christmas beating KARGESE. MAJBOROUGH is a winner over hurdles in France who could be anything while four others come into this having won their only hurdle. Of these, Limerick winner BUNTING might be the best but this is a race to perhaps avoid punting but it will be hugely informative as to the pecking order among the Irish juveniles and whether any can or will threaten SIR GINO. Six go in the Arkle Novices Chase - Mullins has half the field but Barry Connell trains MARINE NATIONALE who is 2/5 with GAELIC WARRIOR going elsewhere. FACILE VEGA was very poor at Christmas and it may be IL ETAIT TEMPS, the Faugheen runner up who gives the favourite most to do. Just four stand in the Irish Gold Cup and the question is whether GALOPIN DES CHAMPS can confirm the superiority from the Savils. FASTORSLOW might prefer Punchestown and the 2022 Savils winner CONFLATED might be the one for the forecast.

Another busy weekend coming. On Saturday, Sandown stages the Scilly Isles for the novice chasers over 4000m. The ground has dried so much they've actually had to water the Esher track to keep the ground Good to Soft, Good in places. Just seven entries but a tightly contested heat with all seven rated between 145 and 150. COLONEL HENRY beat TRELAWNE in the Towton three weeks ago. I prefer LE PATRON who won the Henry VIII before Christmas but the question is the ground. I think it will be too sharp for HERMES ALLEN who won the Feltham on Boxing Day. Four Grade 1 races grace the opening day of the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown where the ground is Soft to Heavy for the hurdlers and Yielding to Soft, Soft in places for the chasers. It's often a benefit for Willie Mullins and he has six of the nine entries in the opening Nathaniel Lacy Novices Hurdle over 4250m. Favourite is PREDATORS GOLD who was no match for CALDWELL POTTER (whose owners, after losing two of their novices, have decided to sell the entire string) at Christmas. Mullins has eight of the thirteen entries in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle over 3200m. STORM HEART was a decent galloper on the flat in France and won his maiden hurdle by 22 lengths so he's in the "could be anything " file. The big race on Saturday looks to be the Arkle Novices Chase over 3400m. Last year's Supreme winner MARINE NATIONALE looked superb at Christmas over the course and distance but faces Faugheen winner GAELIC WARRIOR who looks the best of the four Mullins entries. Just five go in the Irish Gold Cup over 4850m and GALOPIN DES CHAMPS is 4/9 to follow up last year's success. He was dominant in the Savils at Christmas but faces FASTORSLOW who has beaten him twice, albeit round the very different Punchestown circuit and at the end of one season and the beginning of another. On the numbers, FASTORSLOW has 12 lbs to find with the favourite and while he may get close GALOPIN DES CHAMPS is the top staying chaser currently and 10/11 for the Gold Cup at Cheltenham. Four more Grade 1 events on Sunday as well. Mullins has eight of the thirteen entries in the Ladbrokes Novice Chase over 4150m. He then has eight of the fourteen in the Tattersalls Ireland Novices Hurdle over 3200m. Some of these are double entries from Saturday so we'll need to see what the final declarations bring tomorrow and Friday. EL FABIOLO heads a four strong Mullins entry (out of six entries) in the Dublin Chase over 3400m and not surprisingly last year's Arkle winner is 2/7 favourite. Finally Mullins has entered three of the five in the Irish Champion Hurdle over 3200m for which STATE MAN is 1/4 to follow up last year's win and book himself another clash with CONSTITUTION HILL at Cheltenham.

Doncaster saw if you like the northern equivalent of Cheltenham Trials Day with three Grade 2 hurdles. The Rossington Main Novices Hurdle over 3200m saw Nicky Henderson's JERICHO DU REPONET scramble home in a slowly run race which didn't suit him. Perhaps but that was a long way from a Cheltenham Festival performance and I wonder if Aintree, where a stronger pace is guaranteed, might be better. Willie Mullins won two at Cheltenham and was on the board in the Yorkshire Rose Mares Hurdle with ASHROE DIAMOND who looked fantastic in the paddock and had too much pace for NIcky Henderson's UNDER CONTROL for whom this was a big step forward. Whether she will go to Cheltenham I don't know but I think she'll make a smashing novice chaser last year. GALA MARCEAU,. on seasonal bow, tired after the last and finished third. I wouldn't write her off on this run by any stretch. The Albert Bartlett River Don over 4800m for the staying novice hurdlers saw a rare triumph for the north with KERRYHILL for trainer Ruth Jefferson decisively beating favourite WELCOME TO CARTRIES who ran a perfectly good race in defeat. The fact is KERRYHILL ran off 124 and if that's good enough to win an Albert Bartlett, I'd be astonished.

Plenty to get through from the past weekend's action with a top card at Cheltenham and some decent races at Doncaster. For the second year running, Ascot's loss was Cheltenham's gain as the Grade 1 Clarence House Chase over 3400m headed from the right-handed Berkshire venue to the left-handed Gloucestershire venue. EL FABIOLO, declared to run at Ascot, stayed in Ireland and on paper it looked a penalty kick for JONBON who had won the Tingle Creek on unsuitably Heavy ground last time but for whom the Good to Soft turf seemed ideal: It's not called jump racing for no reason and much as he had in the Kingmaker at Warwick last year, JONBON put in an ordinary round of jumping and that allowed ELIXIR DU NUTZ, rated 14 lbs inferior, to nick the race in a dramatic finish. JONBON was rallying up the hill but the damage had been done and if he jumps like that in the Champion Chase, EL FABIOLO will be a distant figure at the finish. To be fair, Nicky Henderson will work his magic and doubtless we'll see a better effort in March but we'll need to. The winner plies his trade in Grade 2 and Grade 3 races and for his 18-year old jockey Freddie Gyngell, this was a wonderful first Grade 1 success. The other disappointment was the Wayward Lad winner EDITEUR DU GITE who seemed most likely to be the beneficiary of any issues with the 1/4 favourite but he jumped poorly as well and trailed home last. EL FABIOLO is now 1/2 for the Champion Chase and 2/7 for the Dublin Chase this weekend (of which more in my after next). A strong undercard of Grade 2 races supported this championship races and there were two outstanding performances. The first came in the Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle with SIR GINO strolling home ten lengths in front of BURDETT ROAD without turning a hair. This was a hugely impressive performance and SIR GINO is 11/8 favourite for the Triumph at the Festival. We've got to see all the Irish juvenile novices and I suspect we'll know a lot more after the coming weekend. The second came in the Unibet Hurdle which initiated a hat-trick for Irish-trained runners sending a shiver through the British jumping ranks. LOSSIEMOUTH had won the Triumph last season and had scored well at Punchestown but this was her seasonal bow. H<owever, she made an admittedly second division group of British hurdlers look like plodders coming home unchallenged by nearly ten lengths. She'll head for the Mares for which she is 4/6 and over which Willie Mullins has a stranglehold. The thinking seems to be she'll swerve the Champion this year and go for it as a 6-y-o which makes a lot of sense (5-y-o have a poor record in the race and it's very hard for the juveniles in their first season in open company). The truth is she was rated 147 and got all the allowances on Saturday and even though she'll go up to 160 on my ratings CONSTITUTION HILL is rated 175 and even with the mares allownace she would have a lot to find in the Champion this year. On to the staying hurdlers in the Cleeve Hurdle and plenty of old friends such as DASHEL DRASHER, CHAMP and PAISLEY PARK renewing rivalry but it was the 2022 Grand National winner NOBLE YEATS who prevailed in a race where five had a chance going to the last. He was fourth in the 2023 renewal and I assume they'll have another go this time (the weights come out in a week or two). PAISLEY PARK ran his heart out yet again and he's a wonderful advert for the sport as a 12-y-o but didn't quite have the pace though he was giving the winner 6 lbs. STRONG LEADER ran in snatches but finished well for third - I'd like to see him in the Stayers and the drier the ground the better. CHAMP and DASHEL DRASHER couldn't quite cut it in this company and we'll again know a lot more about the Irish challenge after the coming weekend. The Cotswold Chase was the Gold Cup and the "winner" wasn't even in the race with stable mate CAPODANNO paying a huge compliment to GALOPIN DES CHAMPS. The former was well backed and stayed on too strongly for THE REAL WHACKER who ran really well in second with STAY AWAY FAY just finding it all too much in open company in third though in all fairness he ran a fine trial for the Brown Advisory. The race was marred by the loss of DATSALLGINO who was fatally injured and ROYALE PAGAILLE crashed at the last when a beaten third and while not badly injured looks likely to miss Cheltenham further depleting the home challenge which now looks to centre on L'HOMME PRESSE, the Fleur de Lys winner. Finally, the Super Alloys Novices Hurdle over 4000m saw GIDLEIGH PARK maintain his unbeaten record and earn quotes of 7s for the Baring Bingham (the old Ballymore) and 8s for the Albert Bartlee. LUCKY PLACE ran well for Henderson but I'd be surprised if the Irish don't have several better.

Starting with the weekend review in the sunny climes of Florida and the big meeting at Gulfstream Park. WARM HEART carried European hopes in the Pegasus Turf Invitational though the American punters preferred INTEGRATION. She's a brilliant filly and if this is her last race it's a wonderful way to end her track career and you can imagine she'll be a huge addition to the Coolmore broodmare brigades. Ryan Moore is the world's best jockey (yes, JMac is very good too) and the way he went for the rail run which he does so often in America and it's a skill he learned riding the tight British tracks (his brothers farm the jumps races at Plumpton which is about as tight as Taupo) but WARM HEART had to be brave to go through the gap but she was and the ground gained by the manoeuvre proved decisive. WARM HEART won the Ribblesdale, Irish Oaks, Yorkshire Oaks and the Vermeille last season - all over 2400m. She was just mugged by INSPIRAL in the Filly & Mare Turf before running third in the Hong Kong Vase. As I say, she'll be a big addition to the Coolmore bloodstock ranks and her progeny will of course be of interest. The Pegasus World Cup on the Dirt looked wide open but NATIONAL TREASURE, who had just failed against CODY'S WISH in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile was fancied to follow up over 200m further in the footsteps of the likes of KNICKS GO and LIFE IS GOOD. The kind of race you often see on the Dirt in America - they went hard early and NATIONAL TREASURE's rider Flavien Prat almost certainly won the race by declining the pace battle with HOIST THE GOLD. That gave him just enough to hold the remarkable run of SENOR BUSCADOR who was miles behind half way down the back straight but made remorseless progress to finish a neck down with the two clear of CRUPI who, like the second, was well out the back before running on but was still four and a half lengths off the runner up. SENOR BUSCADOR was seventh, beaten five and a half lengths, in the Breeders Cup Classic and you just wonder whether Meydan and 2000m might be the place for him while the winner might prefer the 1800m of the Saudi Cup. Both will have big claims if they travel to one or either of these huge prizes.

It's an interesting point. I don't know the track at all - I assume it's fairly level so if the time is correct, the other possibility is the distance actually raced. Up here, they've done laser measurements so distances are often recorded as "about" five furlongs or a mile. At Lingfield, the five furlongs is actually four furlongs and 196 yards so 24 yards or metres short of 1000m. The Mile at Brighton is actually 7 furlongs and 209 yards and the discrepencies are greater over the jumps track. It's something to do with where you take the measurement. Do we know categorically the Wanganui 1200m IS 1200m or short?

Was it overwatered? It's not real grass so it doesn't dry like real grass where the moisture is sucked out of the ground and the top can get firm - Good 4 is its "natural" state (like Standard on a Polytrack or Tapeta). It sounds like it doesn't need much irrigation so why 15 mm?

We don't have Strathayr in Europe - I thought it was particularly designed to cope with intense tropical-type rainfall.

@We're Doomed has a valid point. If you water on firm ground the bends can be a real problem - if it's any consolation, we have that problem as well. It requires specific track management of bends (aligning the camber properly) and a well-managed irrigation policy but I do get it. @PeteL - I watched the first, the divots were flying but that doesn't mean the ground further down was easier. I'm sure we all know how a track walks and how it rides on a racehorse at full speed can be very different. We occasionally get changes in going descriptions up here after the first race when it's been galloped on. Weather forecasts can be a nightmare for clerks especially in summer if showers or storms are forecast.

I write from 13,000 miles away so forgive my gross ignorance... I've just read on Loveracing they put 15mm of water on the track the night before and the day was showery. That's a huge amount of water (up here we might put on 5 mm at most even in midsummer) and they certainly seemed to be kicking off the top in the first couple of races. Artificial irrigation isn't the same as proper natural rain - it seems odd to me. Were they trying to produce a particular surface for the Karaka Millions races - the risk of watering so much is produces uneven or false ground.