RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
mulebacker

'You know the odds which are pathetic' - now bend over further while we set the market at 170pct

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Ahh yes - Whilst looking for a bit of value in the TAB  fixed odds in the opening market today 24 hours before  Cambridge R7 which will be running tomorrow I saw one of my horses paying $3.00  in a field of 13 runners-  Why bother even when you try to get in early the day before the odds have no value

Anyway I thought I would see the TAB take on the market they were offering - which was set at  170pct ( it doesnt matter who wins they are screwing your odds down by 70pct)

In Oz the bookies set  the market is often 120pct  - which gives them a 20pct take out - 

In  a fair market the odds add up to 100pct. The bookies need a cut so they will often stack the odds to 120 - 20pct reasonable perhaps - Mind you in the age of automation ....

Take the inverse of each runners odds (which gives it supposed probability of winning based in the odds and then sum these inverses to see the take out - anything over 1  )

Tomsk 7............ 1/7

Bourbon 3.........1/3  

Casper 8..........1/8

etc etc

 

Sums to 1.7

The good old state monopoly - we set the prices

Too bad bet fair never reached critical mass in NZ  markets

 

 

 

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As far as setting a market to 100pct - it is reasonable they take a cut However 20pct is more the norm than gouging and reducing the odds across the board by 70pct off a fair market. Anyone now of any other markets for NZ Racing ?   I know OZ offers it but all the divis seemed synchronised with each other.  I would like punters and myself to have a fighting chance. With the odds on offer these days that is almost a pipe dream. There is little effective competition in NZ

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3 hours ago, mulebacker said:

Anyway I thought I would see the TAB take on the market they were offering - which was set at  170pct ( it doesnt matter who wins they are screwing your odds down by 70pct)

I think it would be around 170% because High Choice is second favourite around $3.30 and no deduction if it comes out because it's an Emergency.  Doesn't look like they mark it as an Emergency on the site so a bit of a trap, but they probably think punters don't really care if the information is all that good or not.

If High Choice gets scratched they will should reprice the remaining runners and you'll get your 130% or so market.

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Yes I am always moaning but I have been doing this a while and have invested a fair amount of time in it. Other punters I know all have similar complaints about the erosion of divs the last 5 years are so. I t makes the game untenable. I would like to see some other players in the market than the TAB - so the punters have a CHOICE. You can bet in OZ but the prices are all synchronised

Do you enjoy backing a winner a $3 who when its I tight finish. There is no value in that

 

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10 hours ago, mulebacker said:

Yes I am always moaning but I have been doing this a while and have invested a fair amount of time in it. Other punters I know all have similar complaints about the erosion of divs the last 5 years are so. I t makes the game untenable. I would like to see some other players in the market than the TAB - so the punters have a CHOICE. You can bet in OZ but the prices are all synchronised

Do you enjoy backing a winner a $3 who when its I tight finish. There is no value in that

 

I have never found that to be the case and i do 50% of my betting there. 

I might add its not what the F/O market opens at its where it finishes and NZTAB is just as good  Tabcorp in many instances and vice versa for NZTAB

Given the latest 2K win guarantee what is you real issue?

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There seem to be many fans of the state monoploy here.MY issue is  I want compettion in the betting markets available/

Is this site managed by the TAB???

I used to have accounts at  centrebet and NSW TAB and I rarely saw differences between the divis on offer in NZ and OZ in NZ Races. I also believe the software that runs the betting engines is the same as used in OZ.

But please enlighten me on the inner workings of the our state monopoly

Most of the time the fixed odds crumble further before the race close. Tho not always. Even the TAB advises getting on early

 

Anyway lets have a look at TABCorps offering on R Cambrdige today as at 930 AM

              TAB.com.au      NZ TAB

Tomsk    7                          7

Bourbon  2.80               3 

Casper     8.50           8.50

Supr Gunn    19          18

Astradeel    5.5      6

Te pori        15        14

 jack hammer  8.5     8.5

 

They look very close to me - It they operated as independent markets the pricing wouldnt so aligned

But if someone can show me a site where there are differences  in Fixed prices please let me know

How many on this site work for the TAB ??????

 

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24 minutes ago, mulebacker said:

There seem to be many fans of the state monoploy here.MY issue is  I want compettion in the betting markets available/

Is this site managed by the TAB???

I used to have accounts at  centrebet and NSW TAB and I rarely saw differences between the divis on offer in NZ and OZ in NZ Races. I also believe the software that runs the betting engines is the same as used in OZ.

But please enlighten me on the inner workings of the our state monopoly

Most of the time the fixed odds crumble further before the race close. Tho not always. Even the TAB advises getting on early

 

Anyway lets have a look at TABCorps offering on R Cambrdige today as at 930 AM

              TAB.com.au      NZ TAB

Tomsk    7                          7

Bourbon  2.80               3 

Casper     8.50           8.50

Supr Gunn    19          18

Astradeel    5.5      6

Te pori        15        14

 jack hammer  8.5     8.5

 

They look very close to me - It they operated as independent markets the pricing wouldnt so aligned

But if someone can show me a site where there are differences  in Fixed prices please let me know

How many on this site work for the TAB ??????

 

If they're both using form analysts using the same data (form, trial results etc) doesn't it make sense that they'd come up with very similar answers/markets?  Plus I'm sure that both keep an eye on each other in case there's something one has noticed that the other hasn't? They're both risk averse obviously, but then that's their job to a point. 
 

And as far as the "state monopoly" goes; is the NZ market really big enough to attract competition even if it was allowed?
 

We all like to whinge about the TAB, and their odds, but isn't part of that down to smaller field sizes and a lack of good horses overall in the current era? The average weekend fields of 40 years were larger and stronger than many of our Group races today, many of which are an embarrassment to their Group status. It's more a sign of the times. New Zealand racing is currently extremely weak, and rarely a good betting proposition at all. Even a field with a $5 favourite today is generally framed so because it's a field stacked full of plodders and no hopers, not a field of champions and up and comers generating the many chances. Most horses showing any ability have already been sold overseas or have been sent overseas. We are left with the dregs more often than not, and dregs are never a good betting proposition. 

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5 hours ago, mulebacker said:

The crap odds prob largely a result of the AI  being used everywhere plus the available data and not having to time off the video tapes like in ithe old days

But are you superior to a AI program in terms of baking winners? Its not compulsory to bet so what's your real issue

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10 hours ago, mulebacker said:

There seem to be many fans of the state monoploy here.MY issue is  I want compettion in the betting markets available/

Is this site managed by the TAB???

I used to have accounts at  centrebet and NSW TAB and I rarely saw differences between the divis on offer in NZ and OZ in NZ Races. I also believe the software that runs the betting engines is the same as used in OZ.

But please enlighten me on the inner workings of the our state monopoly

Most of the time the fixed odds crumble further before the race close. Tho not always. Even the TAB advises getting on early

 

Anyway lets have a look at TABCorps offering on R Cambrdige today as at 930 AM

              TAB.com.au      NZ TAB

Tomsk    7                          7

Bourbon  2.80               3 

Casper     8.50           8.50

Supr Gunn    19          18

Astradeel    5.5      6

Te pori        15        14

 jack hammer  8.5     8.5

 

They look very close to me - It they operated as independent markets the pricing wouldnt so aligned

But if someone can show me a site where there are differences  in Fixed prices please let me know

How many on this site work for the TAB ??????

 

I don't think you are looking very hard mulebacker. For example, I just had a look at a horse I' was considering backing tomorrow. Yes, it is the same price $11 on TABCorp and the NZTAB which is usual, but the range of prices across other OZ bookies is $9.50 to $15. I find that such a 50% variance in prices is not unusual especially early on in the betting. If the NZTAB price is wrong based on your assessment then sure, don't bet there if it is not value but grab it if it is. If you can't find the horse at a price that represents value once you look around, then don't bet. That's if you want to win long term. If you want to keep losing and whinging, then that's your prerogative.

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No one here or anywhere for that matter could outperform  AI, AI is sobering for all punters and it already in play and is coming like a tsunami unfortunatelty

Yeah Littl Rock came up  on my radar

Thanks for the info Leggy I shall revisit the Oz Bookmakers to look for  differentials

Any bookies in particular you recommend ?

Pinjarra tommorrow - 

R2 Hardball

R3 dont show

R6 Rogues

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5 hours ago, mulebacker said:

Thanks for the info Leggy I shall revisit the Oz Bookmakers to look for  differentials

Any bookies in particular you recommend ?

It probably depends on how and how much you bet and of course whether and how the bookies restrict your betting. So, I'd check one of the odds comparison sites for the bets you typically make and go from there. I like  Ladbrokes, Sportsbet, Bet365, Topsport, Beteasy, Betfair of course ..... but there are plenty of others that may suit.

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If you think the TAB is bad. Robwaterhouse does something I find as poor form.

I went to place multiple $1000+ bets, and instead of accepting the bet, it would decline and the odds would shorten significantly. I could then place the same bet at the shortened odds. To me, that is borderline offensive.

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1 hour ago, NextPlease said:

If you think the TAB is bad. Robwaterhouse does something I find as poor form.

I went to place multiple $1000+ bets, and instead of accepting the bet, it would decline and the odds would shorten significantly. I could then place the same bet at the shortened odds. To me, that is borderline offensive.

Not real bookies are they. His old man bet in the millions. $1000 he wouldn’t even blink. They used to have betting duels. That must be Robbie’s idea of a duel nowadays. Imagine KP getting declined then accepted at shorter odds. He would buy the racecourse and bar them. 

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