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shaneMcAlister

Brian De Lore latest article assistance.

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In Brian De Lore's latest article (http://www.theoptimist.site/) he has a graph on the shrinkage of our mares served and foal crop.  

He has actuals and then forecast.  I have added in the % row.  How would he have the foal crop as a percentage to mares served shrink from 60% down to 49%?  I always assumed that less mares served could actually result in a very slight increase in the foal crop as a percentage.

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Yes. The article makes no sense to me at all. Why a NZ foal crop of 2000 is insufficient to sustain NZ racing is not explained. And as you point out, neither is the rationale for predicting the live foal rate declining from 60% to round 50%. A very perplexing piece. What any of that has to do with the health of NZ racing or stake levels is beyond me.

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Any chance those who used to be the backbone of NZ breeding have headed for the hills and only those flush with funds and the Studs are continuing with the breeding caper. As for live foals percentage declining so markedly let's not visit the prospect that less than perfectly conformed foals are culled by the remaining players. Whatever, maybe de Lore can offer an explanation from his research- fertility issues?climate change?some other malevolent factor?

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