RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
shaneMcAlister

Black type races and our horses

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I am happy to be corrected if this is not correct.  I believe our pattern races have a minimum thresold to reach to ensure they keep their status.  These thresolds are:

  • Listed race (100) 56 races
  • Group 3 (102) 43 races
  • Group 2 (107) 27 races 
  • Group 1 (112) 21 races

I believe for the pattern review our horses are rated on an international scale so will differ to NZ ratings.

Excluding Roch 'N' Horse and Levante (who do not have new NZ ratings yet and will be deservedly hight) we only have about 16 horses in NZ currently rated above 100.  And only one of these is rated above 107, that is Entriviere who is rated 108.

 

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Which is all an interesting point….

Roch ‘n’ Horse and Levante’s  “new” ratings will go through the roof after Saturday’s result thus saving The Telegraph from being down graded! (Maybe The Railway too)

They, R ‘n’ H & Levante are the same horses ability wise after the Newmarket as they were the day before, YET for sure they are going to be upgraded ratings wise or the Australian sprinters will all need 4 to 6 points knocked off their ratings. 
TAKE YOUR PICK on which way it will go? 😂

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 Over the past 10 years, the international pattern committee has been trying to standardise the certification of the standard of these races by stating that we needed to have a certain number of horses racing against each other in these races for them to maintain their status. For example, a group one race needs to have either 5 horses racing against each other with a rating of 112 or greater or that the first 4 home have ratings of greater than 114 (don't quote me). If this doesn't happen over a three year period, then the rating of the race can change after a warning and  review.

The problem in NZ is that we have only 16 horses rated over 100!!! This is because we aren't breeding from superior genetics, the best of our horses are exported (unfortunately we're not breeding many 115+ horses anyway) and we don't have the numbers of mares being bred anymore. So when it comes to having open class handicaps, we simply don't have the horse numbers, in particular those that could internationally be classed as 90-100 rated horses. These 90-100 rated (and even less) are now racing in the NZ black type races because they can, there's slightly more money in them, and being rated 90, these handicappers are now competitive in these black type races. So as that is happening, and we don't have the numbers, the open handicap runners become 80-90 rated horses racing against each other. 

And to put this all into perspective, one needs to consider the reason for the racing structure in the first instance. The black type pattern was to determine the best of any generation of horse and then to test the efficacy of the classic generation (3 yrs old) against the older generation.  So the structure used to be that the 2 yr old championships determined the best of them but also who the best might be in the following year. The classic generation (3 yr olds) then confirmed the finding of the previous years predictions, and then tested their prowess against the older tried horses that did battle against each other. This was to determine the credentials for stud duties. This has been seriously pulled off track because of the media races and the bureaucrats (who know nothing about racing) who have decided to change the pattern, and in doing so, have diluted the ability to determine who is the best.

Handicaps were created for those who couldn't normally compete in the black type races, and for those who enjoyed the concept of betting. In the southern hemisphere, we couldn't afford the top class stallions and broodmares so we were into handicapping races. That is why many of our group one races are handicaps and not set weights. We just didn't have the right number of group one type horses to race against each other in set weight group one races. That meant that the type of stallion and mare that was imported into the southern hemisphere were a larger more robust type of horses because in the old days the expression was "they needed to be able to carry a bit of weight". This has obviously changed by the way the international market has embraced Australian racing in particular.

So the challenge now relates to increasing horse numbers and the quality of that horse. Not rocket science but necessary if we want to stay relevant. On current standings, 73% of all the NZ black type races are at risk of destabilisation and down grading. No-one is really talking about this in desperate terms.

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So the culprits in NZ have been the administrators in past eras ?

Not the current or recent lot that folk on here like to savage !

Then there are the owners and breeders of recent times who escalate the problem by selling and racing most of our top horses to/in Australia.

Yet we expect the current lot to be miracle makers and redeem the situation.....the task looks an impossible one !

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@Berrimakes an interesting point about the wider international view.

In Europe, races in Germany and Italy have been downgraded as values have dropped and quality has declined. In the UK, Ireland and France the line is holding for now but we also have the rise of Japanese racing and as we've seen the Japanese are able to compete in the US, Saudi and Dubai as well as Europe.

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3 hours ago, We're Doomed said:

Some clubs will miss the recently retired Cocert Hall. She lifted the rating of a few handicaps over the last year or two.

Handicap races are not highly 'rated' in the scheme of things of  Pattern racing.

Its WFA  then set weights then set weights and penalties then Handicaps.

I read somewhere that Handicap races will not be promoted in their Group status , its only one way for them and thats down !

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23 hours ago, tasman man said:

Handicap races are not highly 'rated' in the scheme of things of  Pattern racing.

Its WFA  then set weights then set weights and penalties then Handicaps.

I read somewhere that Handicap races will not be promoted in their Group status , its only one way for them and thats down !

In America and Australia, handicaps are the lifeblood and recognised accordingly. I'm afraid Europe is also a bit snobby about handicaps - a race like the Ebor should have Group 3 status in my view. 

I think the highest rating for handicaps in the UK is 110 but why couldn't we have 0-120 handicaps (in practice these would be 90-120 handicaps) where Group 1 or Group 2 horses have to give weight to improving top range handicappers. I'd love to see a £500,000 handicap over say 1600m which would attract Guineas placed horses and top 3-y-o handicappers.

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