RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
Berri

I don't get it

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weights for the Auckland Cup...

Concert Hall....winner of 11 races including a group 1,2 and 3           weighted 56 official rating 105

House of Cartier winner of 5 including 1 Group 3 and one listed         weighted 54 official rating  98

Lincoln King winner of 6 incl Wellington Cup (G3)                                  weighted 56  official rating 87

Roger That winner of 7 incl Auckland Cup (GP 1)                                   weighted 55 official rating 90

Joe's Legacy winner of 3 incl one listed race                                           weighted 55 official rating 80

Who the fuck is doing these weights? Absolutely absurd....makes no sense...it's a handicap.

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3 minutes ago, Berri said:

weights for the Auckland Cup...

Concert Hall....winner of 11 races including a group 1,2 and 3           weighted 56 official rating 105

House of Cartier winner of 5 including 1 Group 3 and one listed         weighted 54 official rating  98

Lincoln King winner of 6 incl Wellington Cup (G3)                                  weighted 56  official rating 87

Roger That winner of 7 incl Auckland Cup (GP 1)                                   weighted 55 official rating 90

Joe's Legacy winner of 3 incl one listed race                                           weighted 55 official rating 80

Who the fuck is doing these weights? Absolutely absurd....makes no sense...it's a handicap.

You are late to the party Berri.  This is exactly what a lot of people have been going on about.  

The pattern committee noted that a lot of our higher rated horses were not going in the handicaps as felt they were getting too much weight (we do not have enough high enough rated horses).  So the handicaps were being won and placed by lower rated horses.  So the group 1s like the Auckland Cup, the Railway etc were getting warnings.  The pattern committee wanted to protect the status of these races for breeders and nz racing industry.  So to get the better horses (higher rated horses) in these races they were converted to SW&P (set weights and penalties).

In SW&P basically all horses start on 55kg and you get kg for every blacktype race won in last year.  Hence why we had the debacle in the Thorndon Mile of The Choosen One rated 107 receiving weight (carried 55kg)  from Mali Storm rated 90 (carried 57kg).

Its a mess now, progessive horses have no handicaps worth going in.  So off to Australia.

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Who ever devised the Set Weights and Penalties weights didn’t know what they were doing.

Was it Butch Castles?

In my opinion the idea of SW&P races is a good one so long as the weights are worked out properly and fairly, giving the higher rated horses a winning chance. 

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I have to confess I didn't know for ages what SW&P meant when I saw it on an NZ racebook and I'm still confused.

We have SW&P here though they aren't called that. Basically, most non-handicaps fall into that category - if it's a novice race, winners get to carry a 7 lb penalty. If you're running in a Group 2 and you've won a Group 1 in the past 12 months you'll carry a penalty for that as well. Anomalies such as the one mentioned by @shaneMcAlisterexist here though that seems exceptional.

The lifeblood of UK racing is or are handicaps - they represent half to two thirds of all races run. They attract the biggest fields and the most betting revenue - the biggest of them all, the Grand National, is a handicap and other handicaps such as the Stewards Cup at Goodwood, the Cambridgeshire at Newmarket and the Ebor at York, are regularly in the top 10 big betting races.

Most horses end up handicapping - there aren't many maiden handicaps (the next step down is the Seller). The lower grade handicaps get the runners because there are many more slow horses than quick ones. Unfortunately, every course wants to put on better class races - the result is visible this afternoon up here. Two jump cards - Sandown and Newcastle (both big tracks which host Grade 1 races). 

Sandown has 37 runners for 6 races - three Class 3 and three Class 4.

Newcastle has 81 runners for 8 races - one class 3, four Class 4 and three Class 5. The three Class 5 races have 43 runners so just over half the runners in the three lowest grade events.

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11 hours ago, drewandjo said:

changing to SW & P hasn't worked for a number of former handicaps

That would have to be the understatement of the year.

As Shane said, The Chosen One had to be the weight certainty of the year.

Most of the races that have been changed to SW&P have ended up downgraded anyhow so it hasn't achieved anything. And all those handicaps that used to attract big fields and big betting are now getting much smaller fields with one or two stand out favs and much smaller betting.

Not sure if I have mentioned it before, but the industry is being very poorly run at all levels.

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4 hours ago, jeepers said:

A $500000 race take the top two out and what a pathetic field.What a waste of funds just like the million dollar derby.Halve the stake and boost the lower end racing after all anything any good in NZ comes to Aust anyway.I have a horse having its first start in a $50000 maiden today.

Your horse could be racing for in a $60k race on Saturday at Ellerslie. The MAAT race.

A slow horse racing for good money is still a slow horse !

Halving the stakes of our 'big' races to add a few bucks to the minimum IMO does little .

Kiwis who think their horse has good ability and those punters seeking a little better potential will always play in Australia from here. Its very close !

 

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Bruce Sherwin and Bruce Sharrock have their work cut out for them. The industry used to be about finding out who the best horse was so over the years a pattern was developed. Then they worked out that there were a lot of people betting on these races (including the owners) so handicap racing started. I've been to Weatherby’s selecting the odd book out of their vast archives, that started in the 1700's, where every race was over 3 1/2 miles and each horse had the same weight. Over time this morphed to reflect the change of plan.

For more than 40 years the international racing industry has wrestled with ways to quantify a thoroughbred’s racing quality. The ultimate goal is a system that portrays the value of a given horse’s performance record consistently across all borders worldwide.

Along with the growth in commercial sales arose the need for standards across the world’s leading auction houses. The quality expressed by a horse’s catalogue page needed to be the same whether the horse was being sold in Kentucky or England. To address this need, the International Cataloguing Standards Committee formed in 1981 followed by the Society of International Thoroughbred Auctioneers in 1983.

Identifying a method to highlight consistently the most important horses on a catalogue page was among the key issues the ICSC and SITA would address first.

At this time, European racing authorities had in place for more than a decade a classification system that distinguished ordinary stakes from those with prestige. The better races, called group races, were assigned a I, II, or III rating, with ‘I’ being the best. The remaining ungraded stakes were identified as “pattern” races.

The ICSC and SITA added to this convention by defining the specific races whose winners and placers would be entitled to “black type” identification in a sales catalogue.

Both the grade/group ratings and black-type designations were driven by a common goal: to improve the breed by allowing breeders to evaluate racing class in stallions and broodmares in a reliable, consistent, and objective manner.

Over the years the purse requirements have risen steadily. A $50,000 purse is now the minimum to be considered for black type. Recognizing, too, that purse money is not a reliable indicator of quality, additional requirements for black-type status have been introduced. Beginning with the 2013 racing year, listed stakes are now evaluated annually and assigned black-type status by the International Pattern Committee. Then in 2014 a quality control system for non-listed stakes was implemented and assigns every race a Race Quality Score. If a race’s three-year rolling average score and its most recent annual score fall below a minimum threshold, it loses its black-type status.

The pattern of these black type races was designed to establish programs where various championships were designed and that each competition became harder as they drew to a conclusion. These championships were designed to find out the merit of each horse with the ability to compare one crop of horses with another.

Recently this has been pulled off track and is leading to a slow degradation of the merits of various horses. Who is the best horse?...the winner of the $1m sales race or the Manawatu Sires produce?

So now we have fallen over. Approx. 80% of our stakes races are under notice because we don’t have the horses with appropriate races. This set weights and penalties is a chase to the bottom of the hill because we’ve lost the original reason for the black type pattern.

I simply don’t understand why our leaders aren’t panicking. What a mess. The sales this week were a mess. The Auckland Cup field is a mess. We are on a slippery slope that has seen the government appoint a CEO of the NZTAB who knows little about racing, very little about technology and nothing about the black art of betting. The only conclusion you could make is that the bid by Entain and TAB Corp to sell the NZTAB for $1.4 is real.

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1 hour ago, Berri said:

 

Bruce Sherwin and Bruce Sharrock have their work cut out for them. The industry used to be about finding out who the best horse was so over the years a pattern was developed. Then they worked out that there were a lot of people betting on these races (including the owners) so handicap racing started. I've been to Weatherby’s selecting the odd book out of their vast archives, that started in the 1700's, where every race was over 3 1/2 miles and each horse had the same weight. Over time this morphed to reflect the change of plan.

For more than 40 years the international racing industry has wrestled with ways to quantify a thoroughbred’s racing quality. The ultimate goal is a system that portrays the value of a given horse’s performance record consistently across all borders worldwide.

Along with the growth in commercial sales arose the need for standards across the world’s leading auction houses. The quality expressed by a horse’s catalogue page needed to be the same whether the horse was being sold in Kentucky or England. To address this need, the International Cataloguing Standards Committee formed in 1981 followed by the Society of International Thoroughbred Auctioneers in 1983.

Identifying a method to highlight consistently the most important horses on a catalogue page was among the key issues the ICSC and SITA would address first.

At this time, European racing authorities had in place for more than a decade a classification system that distinguished ordinary stakes from those with prestige. The better races, called group races, were assigned a I, II, or III rating, with ‘I’ being the best. The remaining ungraded stakes were identified as “pattern” races.

The ICSC and SITA added to this convention by defining the specific races whose winners and placers would be entitled to “black type” identification in a sales catalogue.

Both the grade/group ratings and black-type designations were driven by a common goal: to improve the breed by allowing breeders to evaluate racing class in stallions and broodmares in a reliable, consistent, and objective manner.

Over the years the purse requirements have risen steadily. A $50,000 purse is now the minimum to be considered for black type. Recognizing, too, that purse money is not a reliable indicator of quality, additional requirements for black-type status have been introduced. Beginning with the 2013 racing year, listed stakes are now evaluated annually and assigned black-type status by the International Pattern Committee. Then in 2014 a quality control system for non-listed stakes was implemented and assigns every race a Race Quality Score. If a race’s three-year rolling average score and its most recent annual score fall below a minimum threshold, it loses its black-type status.

The pattern of these black type races was designed to establish programs where various championships were designed and that each competition became harder as they drew to a conclusion. These championships were designed to find out the merit of each horse with the ability to compare one crop of horses with another.

Recently this has been pulled off track and is leading to a slow degradation of the merits of various horses. Who is the best horse?...the winner of the $1m sales race or the Manawatu Sires produce?

So now we have fallen over. Approx. 80% of our stakes races are under notice because we don’t have the horses with appropriate races. This set weights and penalties is a chase to the bottom of the hill because we’ve lost the original reason for the black type pattern.

I simply don’t understand why our leaders aren’t panicking. What a mess. The sales this week were a mess. The Auckland Cup field is a mess. We are on a slippery slope that has seen the government appoint a CEO of the NZTAB who knows little about racing, very little about technology and nothing about the black art of betting. The only conclusion you could make is that the bid by Entain and TAB Corp to sell the NZTAB for $1.4 is real.

Tod is a marketer, of sorts, but even so I am surprised that his experience was the very best available….

Clearly they are wanting to do the obvious and increase revenue to increase distribution to codes.

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