RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
Catalano

Systematic Betting

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The races have largely lost me, and I don't have the time or inclination to pore over race fields like I used to, so I thought I'd try something different.

I've chucked together some factors that I like, stuff that I automatically look for - gear changes, strike rate trainers, recent form, and recency of form.

Looks like this:

Any horse that is having any gear adjusted.

Must not have been beaten by more than 3L last start

Last start <21 days

Trainer strike rate <8

If more than one selection, go for the jockey with the best SR.

So basically, I'm looking for good trainers who think they can improve their horses a couple of lengths with a gear change.

Selections at Ellerslie:

R1 Manchu

R3 Pacific Dragon

R5 Outfit

R6 Te Toki

Anyone else using a system, or have some favourite factors?

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I have a less systematic system than that.

Bet mostly E/W. Aiming for value, looking for under rated runners stepping up in grade. I like the 3rd/4th line of betting horses most. Keen on good jocks also horses for courses - some nags just do or do not like certain tracks. I think Te Rapa is pronounced with this, as is Ellerslie. Also like the underrated Southern or Central form at Trentham later in January. 

Tomorrow I think in the Railway Packing Rockstar is a chance at $15s. Not as good as the top two for sure but capable of stealing it with a cheap mid section. 

Also Cha Siu Bao in Rich Hill mile, good course stats and worth some place money at least, paying $80 on fixed win. 

Happy punting. 

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2 hours ago, Catalano said:

The races have largely lost me, and I don't have the time or inclination to pore over race fields like I used to, so I thought I'd try something different.

I've chucked together some factors that I like, stuff that I automatically look for - gear changes, strike rate trainers, recent form, and recency of form.

Looks like this:

Any horse that is having any gear adjusted.

Must not have been beaten by more than 3L last start

Last start <21 days

Trainer strike rate <8

If more than one selection, go for the jockey with the best SR.

So basically, I'm looking for good trainers who think they can improve their horses a couple of lengths with a gear change.

Selections at Ellerslie:

R1 Manchu

R3 Pacific Dragon

R5 Outfit

R6 Te Toki

Anyone else using a system, or have some favourite factors?

Hi Cat.I have a pile of systems I cut out of the Winning Post in Sydney about ten years ago.They are similar in style  to what you are doing.I kept them with the idea of applying them and seeing what panned out.I did it for about 8 weeks during the spring carnival and results were nothing startling..At that stage I was going poorly on the punt(as you will remember from our team in the comp.)so I gave up for a couple of months.Ive got a heap more of them and will get round to testing them all out.Maybe one will be a winner and I'll live happily ever after.Good punting to you in2022.

 

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Hey Memphis, I've got a similar pile of old systems from Practical Punting Monthly - probably the best one was something that picked up on 4 & 5yo geldings hitting their top at their third start back from a spell - didn't pick a lot of runners, but they were always a chance - good punting in 2022!

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On 12/31/2021 at 4:42 PM, Catalano said:

The races have largely lost me, and I don't have the time or inclination to pore over race fields like I used too.

I used to study racebooks, these days, nagh, too much toil for so little return, still interested but leaving others to do their dosh

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