RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
john legend

The Race

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On 12/26/2021 at 5:35 AM, Navitas said:

Sounds like the rich getting richer, while the battling breeders, owners & trainers continue to get the crumbs. 

Shouldn't be difficult to spot the conflicts of interest here

possibly . but Yes , the richer can (and Should) buy the slots. Exposure for their company is gained , etc. Plenty of developers around who make a top quid, and get publicity. 

As Tasman Man said they (the companies) have a Rep who negotiates with a stable/owner with a 'Good' horse to race in their slot . This could be a Grass roots player? .

LAVER and SOUTH COAST ARDEN would be grabbed up for starters. 

So ANY harness person can get in the race if invited by , and stakemoney negotiated , with the Slot holder. And it won't cost them entry Fee.

The Real problem is The Everest in Sydney has a pool of 50 good sprinters to choose from , with the top 10 or so 'Invited in to a slot each year. The harness racing is much smaller Pool to look at. And AKUTA would win first 3 years IMO,  he is quite brilliant. So that collapses all the interest a little. 

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1 hour ago, Pure Steel said:

possibly . but Yes , the richer can (and Should) buy the slots. Exposure for their company is gained , etc. Plenty of developers around who make a top quid, and get publicity. 

As Tasman Man said they (the companies) have a Rep who negotiates with a stable/owner with a 'Good' horse to race in their slot . This could be a Grass roots player? .

LAVER and SOUTH COAST ARDEN would be grabbed up for starters. 

So ANY harness person can get in the race if invited by , and stakemoney negotiated , with the Slot holder. And it won't cost them entry Fee.

The Real problem is The Everest in Sydney has a pool of 50 good sprinters to choose from , with the top 10 or so 'Invited in to a slot each year. The harness racing is much smaller Pool to look at. And AKUTA would win first 3 years IMO,  he is quite brilliant. So that collapses all the interest a little. 

I'm a bit intrigued by all this exposure for the slot holders. I knew nothing about this race until I saw it mentioned on here. I don't imagine the general public will hardly know it exists. The slot holders don't get much exposure with the Everest, I couldn't even tell you who they all are. I do know the TAB has a slot, I hope ours doesn't get involved like that. I wonder what the marketing budget will be and who fronts for that. I note that this week's Cambridge meeting is all small fields racing for $7,000 and $9,000. Perhaps they are saving their money so they can contribute $100,000 or so to a marketing campaign.

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43 minutes ago, We're Doomed said:

The slot holders don't get much exposure with the Everest, I couldn't even tell you who they all are. I do know the TAB has a slot,

It is an ideal chance to get some advertising in , and Tax initiatives etc. Chris Waller Racing had the winning Slot as he trained the winner Nature Strip who was near favourite.

Some big studs/racing empires  took slots like Coolmore, Inglis, Godolphin and Aquis. not sure on the others but big wigs they would be. 

 Woodlands and Lincoln Farms and Green Foundation  are all a chance of buying slots . ..Allstars should buy one themselves for Akuta the likely winner. 

Like anything in life you get as much exposure as what you invest in. A good junket for staff too?.

maybe trotting Clubs could get members to chip a thousand in each and OWN a GREAT HORSE for One race a year. I'd do it !!!  

That is have some of the various Trotting Clubs around NZ be the Slot holders !! why not ? great rivalry and members all get to share a horse for the day.

Would be FanTasTic !!!

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6 minutes ago, We're Doomed said:

Has that Akuta thing that won the jewels been racing this season? Has he done much since then?

Well he's a bit more than a thing lol , and hasn't started in a race since the Jewels in winter after his 10 length ultra impressive win. Already a double Group 1 winner from 5 starts.

He is being set for a Huge 2022 , with the 'Race' and the Derbies on the agenda. 

Akuta Will follow the footsteps of the 2nd best NZer ever,  the great 'Lazarus'  into many records and wins , including 'the Race'. Akuta is Just quietly trialling at the moment early in Prep.

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4 minutes ago, We're Doomed said:

I'm not an avid trots follower these days, just a general member of the public. Has that Akuta thing that won the jewels been racing this season? Has he done much since then?

He hasn't raced since the Jewels.....so has had just the 5 starts in total .

He is talked about as a future champion so is being given time to mature , and no doubt will be out soon chasing the Group races.

It would be tough against the older horses but inside drawers a big help at Cambridge and as a just turned 3 yr old it is rumoured they get the inside draws.

The older horse 'depth' is quite light in NZ , made worse by Copy That's injury . 

The Race would be hoping for some Aussie  strong interest to boost the quality and betting etc.

As well as a lack of depth another risk to the Race prospering  IMO would be the threat that Aussie Harness could plan a similar race and they have more $$$ so their's probably bigger and better which could be a spanner in works.

As pointed out the return for amount invested in the RACE pales beside the Aussie thoroughbred race.

The conflict of interest referred to is probably the fact that HRNZ CEO invests heavily in good stock and currently part-owns one of the current likely favourites for the race.

I don't see this as an issue ....we moan when our CEO's are from NZPost and Rugby league etc and if they are Aussie so a Kiwi with a real passion is OK with me !

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8 minutes ago, tasman man said:

The older horse 'depth' is quite light in NZ , made worse by Copy That's injury . 

The Race would be hoping for some Aussie  strong interest to boost the quality and betting etc.

As well as a lack of depth another risk to the Race prospering 

I was thinking that earlier TM. but maybe there IS still enough around to make a competitive race the more you think about it.??

A Lot of the Jewels placegetters still available , that raced well at Cambridge that day in June ?? Akuta ,  the 3 yearold placegetters BD Joe, Krug, and HotnTreacherous, + fillies Bettor Twist and LifesABeach,    the 4 year old placegetters were SouthCoastArden, BadtotheBone and Laver.  and finally NeedYouNow who defeated Amazing Dream is another one. That makes 10 already.

Regazzo Mach, Amazing Dream and Copy That were all beaten and unplaced Jewels day behind that lot , and are unavailable now, but went on to win big things afterwards.

so seems those horses available are Not too Bad afterall. 

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11 minutes ago, Pure Steel said:

I was thinking that earlier TM. but maybe there IS still enough around to make a competitive race the more you think about it.??

A Lot of the Jewels placegetters still available , that raced well at Cambridge that day in June ?? Akuta ,  the 3 yearold placegetters BD Joe, Krug, and HotnTreacherous, + fillies Bettor Twist and LifesABeach,    the 4 year old placegetters were SouthCoastArden, BadtotheBone and Laver.  and finally NeedYouNow who defeated Amazing Dream is another one. That makes 10 already.

Regazzo Mach, Amazing Dream and Copy That were all beaten and unplaced Jewels day behind that lot , and are unavailable now, but went on to win big things afterwards.

so seems those horses available are Not too Bad afterall. 

Agreed Pure Steel....good thinking !

I assumed a couple of top Aussies must be keen too , taking on some of our Group 1 races as well including the Auckland Cup in May.

Your list also includes some ownership groups which include Companies who could justify the slot price in their marketing budget as a deductible expense.

I hear the 'negative' side too though....especially as the Host club provides mainly 'pathetic' stakes for it's regular races. Around $9,000 is terrible.

And as some have pointed out the facilities for horses and trainers etc need more than a lick of paint.

To struggling owners/trainers/breeders Harness is an expensive hobby and this RACE seems extravagant.

But their returns have been lousy for many,many years and they endured that by holding on to the dream of getting a good horse and hanging on by selling overseas.

Taking off the Group races and giving to the slow slugs would not solve anything.....dilute further !

Frustrated small breeders [eg Navitas] could band together and get a slot and promote its availability if folk buy from their offerings at sale...yr 1 they could attract an Aussie for their slot...it could win even....more bidders /contacts may look at their offerings. Sometimes in business you got to speculate to accumulate !

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4 minutes ago, tasman man said:

To struggling owners/trainers/breeders Harness is an expensive hobby and this RACE seems extravagant

I think you need extravagant races to aspire too. Regular races generate little interest. But racing fans love things like the pace or trot Interdominions , Jewels, Nz Cup and that.

Travel is going to be more restricted the way things are going. so Aussies mightn't turn up. 

Copy That and Amazing Dream and Krug managed to get to Brisbane and beat the Two best current Aussie horses in Winter  (King of Swing and Expensive Ego) There was a new extravagant race called 'The Rising Sun' (as well as QLD championship Blacks A Fake Group 1 races in July) . so was great to have the Nz and NSW visitors turn up. And Win too. 

yeah the rest race for not much , but they can still get a win if placed correctly , so owners can always hope to get a good one at some stage. Little race wins to keep interested meanwhile.

I always feel sorry for potential stars NZ has like Ragazzo Mach (now sold off) , Laver, Pembrook Playboy , etc, as just not enough feature races for them to win in NZ. With Allstars, Krug and Copy That seeming to be just ahead of them. South Coast Arden has really gone up a notch (and won jewels and NZ FFA) so he is probably the one to beat whatever he races in. 

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1 hour ago, Iraklis said:

We'reDoomed mate, that thing AKUTA geez your good for a laugh 🤣

 

Cheers Iraklis

As I say, I don't follow the trots these days, pretty much just tune in for the big races, and there only really seems to have been Cup Week so far, I don't recall any other big races. I have no idea if the Auckland Cup has been held; its in a different month of the year, with different conditions every time I look. In the gallops the gun horses all turn out in the spring and summer. I do realise the trots season is being reorganised.

I come from an era when trots was the big game in town in the SI, it has sadly faded. I have probably attended more Cup Weeks and Interdominions than many on here. 

For the race to work it is going to have to enthuse people with much less racing knowledge than mine, and they are going to have to be enthused enough to have a bet in a race with potentially a $1.40 fav. Also, the Everest attracts an enormous crowd: its about 35 years since I was last at Cambridge and it didn't have extensive salubrious public facilities back then. How many people could they cope with these days?

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40 minutes ago, We're Doomed said:

For the race to work it is going to have to enthuse people with much less racing knowledge than mine, and they are going to have to be enthused enough to have a bet in a race with potentially a $1.40 fav. Also, the Everest attracts an enormous crowd: its about 35 years since I was last at Cambridge and it didn't have extensive salubrious public facilities back then. How many people could they cope with these days?

Very good points. Those 2 things of enthusing people and the facilities for the crowd are very important. Hopefully new people may be connected to harness racing depending who buys the slots in the race. As for the facilities, I read a lot of criticism about Jewels Day ,with many attending person's quite 'Put-off' with small spaces, queueing , etc. So That is critically in need of attention for sure.

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39 minutes ago, Pure Steel said:

Very good points. Those 2 things of enthusing people and the facilities for the crowd are very important. Hopefully new people may be connected to harness racing depending who buys the slots in the race. As for the facilities, I read a lot of criticism about Jewels Day ,with many attending person's quite 'Put-off' with small spaces, queueing , etc. So That is critically in need of attention for sure.

The only thing worse than not being able to attract a decent crowd to such a day, is attracting a big crowd and them all going away disillusioned because of third world facilities that they wouldn't tolerate in their local public bar. I have no idea what Cambridge looks like these days. Putting up a few tents doesn't make up for a basic lack of infrastructure.

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Apart from the elderly stables Cambridge is a good track for hosting a big race meeting. It has a main stand with 3 tiers for wining and dining, as well as the public stand. There are lots of flat grassed areas suitable for marquees and picnics. Because of hosting the Jewels, in recent years several public areas have been modified/spruced up and the team by now should have the know how to run big events. The other good thing I like about Cambridge is that it is a great viewing track - the public are close to the horses.

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On 12/24/2021 at 1:34 PM, tasman man said:

As I suspected Piper.

You posting on a subject you know little about.....in NZ we call that 'talking thru a hole in one's arse '.

NZ's biggest challenge in this initially will be a lack of depth/numbers of top horses who could challenge to win the race...in year 1 !

I guess this is why it is a preferential drawer to add incentive for top 3 year olds to enter.

Adding this to the calendar could slow down the departure of top horses to Australia ....the total prize pool in NZ looking more attractive.

Seems likely that the NZ calendar will be attractive to some top Aussies.They already asked some whether it interests them and are taking enquiries to gauge NZ enthusiasm..

The Race has already had more publicity that most NZ races ever get .....if it not popular then it could be tweaked or even discontinued .

Why is it not worth a shot to help NZ Harness regain some lost relevance.

Am I really now ?? 

With Copy That's injury  and the fact that Aussie Harness are having their own slot race where do you think my foresight has fallen down. The other thing the full details of the race had not yet been decided apon when I posted. l still think it may struggle but good luck with those who invest into it.

I also think that it has given harness an excuse not to hold the jewels, which gave more chance to the grass roots of the industry.

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12 minutes ago, 2Piper said:

Am I really now ?? 

With Copy That's injury  and the fact that Aussie Harness are having their own slot race where do you think my foresight has fallen down. The other thing the full details of the race had not yet been decided apon when I posted. l still think it may struggle but good luck with those who invest into it.

I also think that it has given harness an excuse not to hold the jewels, which gave more chance to the grass roots of the industry.

Yep,

You make a lot of stuff up...then post......hence it called 'talking thru one's arse !

I'm sure of this fact...but have a  happy holiday any way .

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12 hours ago, We're Doomed said:

The only thing worse than not being able to attract a decent crowd to such a day, is attracting a big crowd and them all going away disillusioned because of third world facilities that they wouldn't tolerate in their local public bar. I have no idea what Cambridge looks like these days. Putting up a few tents doesn't make up for a basic lack of infrastructure.

It's a 'country' course with facilities to match.

IMO they made a good fist of the jewels....but like Ashburton was it relied on tents /marquees to handle much of the important 'hospitality functions.

Cambridge generally did it well....there will always be issues when big crowds hit the bars, betting windows and toilets once a year !

And as mentioned ,racing is exciting as horses close [ unlike Ashvegas] .

So the club has 'history' in running a big day ! Of course many big punters use phones now ...I assume big clubs wired up to get their commission from oncourse digital punters !

A 'Jewels ' like day....8 x Group ones.....has morphed into a big day in December [ at Addington in 2022 ]

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21 hours ago, JJ Flash said:

I wonder if G Rogerson would be a player as well

 

I couldn't see the motivation for him in this.

If I was doing a multi or all up I would start with those who are big sponsors currently then try and attract a few new ones  who can leverage their involvement in some form.

Anchors would be the Company that does the big  National sales.....they also transport horses so the other main Horse freighters well favoured too.

Then the near certainties are the big studs , who in Year 1 will possibly have  shares in horses qualified to run !

If a slot holder I would try and get our champion young horses to represent me.....ie Krug and Akuta.

assuming these horses intend to keep racing in NZ ,their connections may invest eg Krug has won $600k.

Then there are the big purchasers at sales[ x 3] .....they seem to have a 'Group1 'horse each year ...they spend enough to deserve one .

So thats  10.....one reneges  , so nine 'race-course' certainties.

The last spot goes to a group of smaller breeders / trainers who may dream up a good 'marketing' idea which could highlight their business and improve their profile.

Like Horse owning / Breeding returns are low and its an expensive hobby which you only do with $$$ you can say goodbye to !

Anyone know if they give slot holders a feed on the day ?

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8 hours ago, tasman man said:
20 hours ago, JJ Flash said:

 

I couldn't see the motivation for him in this.

Its his ego that might attract him as he is without doubt the best marketer of horse flesh this country has ever produced. Whilst Ellis is the current big spender go back through the sales records on both sides of the Tasman and im pretty sure Rogey would be on top 

You do bring up the IRT connection via Ross Coles- i forgot about him and yes he is probably a contender

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I am not meaning to sound negative here, but I am absolutely intrigued by all this talk of the numerous people who might potentially want to buy slots. By my calculations, it costs $75,000 per year, $225,000 over three years. The winner gets $400,000. After deductions, and assuming a 50/50 deal with the horse owner, that leaves $170,000 for the slot owner assuming they don't own the horse themselves. So a nice profit shown for that one year if they win. Second horse gets $125,000: after deductions and a 50/50 deal that leaves $53,125 for the slot owner. So run second and lose $21,875 that year.

And if the owner of a decent horse is looking for the best offer from a slot holder they might be able to do a deal where the horse owner gets more than 50%, so even less for the slot holder. I'm sure the owners of a good Aussie horse would be able to push for a good deal with their expenses paid as well.

You may argue the owners of a really good horse, such as Akuta, would buy their own slot, but there would probably only be one or two that confident. And consider this situation. If All Stars had the clear best two horses in the country and could only own one slot they would actually be worse off if they did a deal with someone else for their number two horse and it beat their top horse into second. About $50,000 worse off. So it may be in their interest not to start the second best horse in the country, especially if they had common ownership.

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It would be really interesting if someone who knows much more than I about the current state of harness racing in this country was to draw up a list of the top ten likely starters if the race was definitely confirmed as going ahead in a few months. Based on the preferential barrier draw, you should be able to come up with a reasonable indication of where each horse would draw and what the likely fixed odds would be on the day. That would show us less knowledgeable types what depth there is and how competitive the race is likely to be. It would also give an indication of which horses a slot holder without the top connections would be competing for.

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1 hour ago, We're Doomed said:

t would be really interesting if someone who knows much more than I about the current state of harness racing in this country was to draw up a list of the top ten likely starters if the race was definitely confirmed as going ahead in a few months

Horses that have performed well at the track before would be likely to return . The Jewels winners/placegetters  would have a crack for sure and certain. You want a market already ?

Here's my Market for you then AKUTA 10-1 On, SouthCoastArden 4-1, Krug 10-1, Bettor Twist 20-1, Laver 20-1, BD Joe 30-1, HotnTreacherous 40-1, NeedyouNow 50-1, BadTotheBone 60-1.

You would think with big money up for grabs 'Allstars stable' might send SELF ASSURED for a look,  and Diamonds stable might send CLASSIE BRIGADE and STEELtheSHOW. up as well. so write your own ticket. 

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