RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
poundforpound

Isn’t this a manifestation of a broken handicapping model ?

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That richest 2400 metre open handicap on Saturday;

Eight acceptors!

Top weight is 57.5kg.

One runner has won a group three, placed third (unlucky) in another group three then won another group three.  Is it the topweight?   No.  It is the bottom weight.

Give very serious thought to our dreadful handicapping system and then say why we only have eight acceptors for that group two race.

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The real problem is not one of handicapping, although that now needs to be recalibrated. It's one of running out of horse power. We have a black type race pattern which is meant to maintain a certain standard of racing in our black type races. Over the past 10 years, the international pattern committee has been trying to standardise the certification of the standard of these races by stating that we needed to have a certain number of horses racing against each other in these races for them to maintain their status. For example, a group one race needs to have either 5 horses racing against each other with a rating of 112 or greater or that the first 4 home have ratings of greater than 114 (don't quote me on these ratings because I'm on holiday). If this doesn't happen over a three year period, then the rating of the race can change after a warning and  review.

The problem in NZ is that we have only 12 horses rated over 100!!! This is because we aren't breeding from superior genetics, the best of our horses are exported (unfortunately we're not breeding many 115+ horses anyway) and we don't have the numbers of mares being bred anymore. So when it comes to having open class handicaps, we simply don't have the horse numbers, in particular those that could internationally be classed as 90-100 rated horses. These 90-100 rated (and even less) are now racing in the NZ black type races because they can, there's slightly more money in them, and being rated 90, these handicappers are now competitive in these black type races. So as that is happening, and we don't have the numbers, the open handicap runners become 80-90 rated horses racing against each other. 

And to put this all into perspective, one needs to consider the reason for the racing structure in the first instance. The black type pattern was to determine the best of any generation of horse and then to test the efficacy of the classic generation (3 yrs old) against the older generation.  So the structure used to be that the 2 yr old championships determined the best of them but also who the best might be in the following year. The classic generation (3 yr olds) then confirmed the finding of the previous years predictions, and then tested their prowess against the older tried horses that did battle against each other. This was to determine the credentials for stud duties. This has been seriously pulled off track because of the media races and the bureaucrats (who know nothing about racing) who have decided to change the pattern, and in doing so, have diluted the ability to determine who is the best.

Handicaps were created for those who couldn't normally compete in the black type races, and for those who enjoyed the concept of betting. In the southern hemisphere, we couldn't afford the top class stallions and broodmares so we were into handicapping races. That is why many of our group one races are handicaps and not set weights. We just didn't have the right number of group one type horses to race against each other in set weight group one races. That meant that the type of stallion and mare that was imported into the southern hemisphere were a larger more robust type of horses because in the old days the expression was "they needed to be able to carry a bit of weight". This has obviously changed by the way the international market has embraced Australian racing in particular.

So the challenge now relates to increasing horse numbers and the quality of that horse. Not rocket science but necessary if we want to stay relevant. On current standings, 73% of all the NZ black type races are at risk of destabilisation and down grading. No-one is really talking about this in desperate terms.

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19 minutes ago, Berri said:

The real problem is not one of handicapping, although that now needs to be recalibrated. It's one of running out of horse power. We have a black type race pattern which is meant to maintain a certain standard of racing in our black type races. Over the past 10 years, the international pattern committee has been trying to standardise the certification of the standard of these races by stating that we needed to have a certain number of horses racing against each other in these races for them to maintain their status. For example, a group one race needs to have either 5 horses racing against each other with a rating of 112 or greater or that the first 4 home have ratings of greater than 114 (don't quote me on these ratings because I'm on holiday). If this doesn't happen over a three year period, then the rating of the race can change after a warning and  review.

The problem in NZ is that we have only 12 horses rated over 100!!! This is because we aren't breeding from superior genetics, the best of our horses are exported (unfortunately we're not breeding many 115+ horses anyway) and we don't have the numbers of mares being bred anymore. So when it comes to having open class handicaps, we simply don't have the horse numbers, in particular those that could internationally be classed as 90-100 rated horses. These 90-100 rated (and even less) are now racing in the NZ black type races because they can, there's slightly more money in them, and being rated 90, these handicappers are now competitive in these black type races. So as that is happening, and we don't have the numbers, the open handicap runners become 80-90 rated horses racing against each other. 

And to put this all into perspective, one needs to consider the reason for the racing structure in the first instance. The black type pattern was to determine the best of any generation of horse and then to test the efficacy of the classic generation (3 yrs old) against the older generation.  So the structure used to be that the 2 yr old championships determined the best of them but also who the best might be in the following year. The classic generation (3 yr olds) then confirmed the finding of the previous years predictions, and then tested their prowess against the older tried horses that did battle against each other. This was to determine the credentials for stud duties. This has been seriously pulled off track because of the media races and the bureaucrats (who know nothing about racing) who have decided to change the pattern, and in doing so, have diluted the ability to determine who is the best.

Handicaps were created for those who couldn't normally compete in the black type races, and for those who enjoyed the concept of betting. In the southern hemisphere, we couldn't afford the top class stallions and broodmares so we were into handicapping races. That is why many of our group one races are handicaps and not set weights. We just didn't have the right number of group one type horses to race against each other in set weight group one races. That meant that the type of stallion and mare that was imported into the southern hemisphere were a larger more robust type of horses because in the old days the expression was "they needed to be able to carry a bit of weight". This has obviously changed by the way the international market has embraced Australian racing in particular.

So the challenge now relates to increasing horse numbers and the quality of that horse. Not rocket science but necessary if we want to stay relevant. On current standings, 73% of all the NZ black type races are at risk of destabilisation and down grading. No-one is really talking about this in desperate terms.

Pretty much sums it up .....even if you are on holiday !

Nice to be on holiday , like our politicians at what could be the busiest and /or most important time of year !

Even if NZ suddenly developed 100 x world class horses to fill our  Group races there is simply not the betting firepower among Kiwis to finance or justify these horse's existence in NZ.

Spending/lifestyle trends have changed dramatically and Horse racing has lost it's relevance in NZ.

Any hint of serious talent and a half decent horse is sold or chases Aussie races where the money , interest and betting tendency much higher !

 

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3 hours ago, Berri said:

The real problem is not one of handicapping, although that now needs to be recalibrated. It's one of running out of horse power. We have a black type race pattern which is meant to maintain a certain standard of racing in our black type races. Over the past 10 years, the international pattern committee has been trying to standardise the certification of the standard of these races by stating that we needed to have a certain number of horses racing against each other in these races for them to maintain their status. For example, a group one race needs to have either 5 horses racing against each other with a rating of 112 or greater or that the first 4 home have ratings of greater than 114 (don't quote me on these ratings because I'm on holiday). If this doesn't happen over a three year period, then the rating of the race can change after a warning and  review.

The problem in NZ is that we have only 12 horses rated over 100!!! This is because we aren't breeding from superior genetics, the best of our horses are exported (unfortunately we're not breeding many 115+ horses anyway) and we don't have the numbers of mares being bred anymore. So when it comes to having open class handicaps, we simply don't have the horse numbers, in particular those that could internationally be classed as 90-100 rated horses. These 90-100 rated (and even less) are now racing in the NZ black type races because they can, there's slightly more money in them, and being rated 90, these handicappers are now competitive in these black type races. So as that is happening, and we don't have the numbers, the open handicap runners become 80-90 rated horses racing against each other. 

And to put this all into perspective, one needs to consider the reason for the racing structure in the first instance. The black type pattern was to determine the best of any generation of horse and then to test the efficacy of the classic generation (3 yrs old) against the older generation.  So the structure used to be that the 2 yr old championships determined the best of them but also who the best might be in the following year. The classic generation (3 yr olds) then confirmed the finding of the previous years predictions, and then tested their prowess against the older tried horses that did battle against each other. This was to determine the credentials for stud duties. This has been seriously pulled off track because of the media races and the bureaucrats (who know nothing about racing) who have decided to change the pattern, and in doing so, have diluted the ability to determine who is the best.

Handicaps were created for those who couldn't normally compete in the black type races, and for those who enjoyed the concept of betting. In the southern hemisphere, we couldn't afford the top class stallions and broodmares so we were into handicapping races. That is why many of our group one races are handicaps and not set weights. We just didn't have the right number of group one type horses to race against each other in set weight group one races. That meant that the type of stallion and mare that was imported into the southern hemisphere were a larger more robust type of horses because in the old days the expression was "they needed to be able to carry a bit of weight". This has obviously changed by the way the international market has embraced Australian racing in particular.

So the challenge now relates to increasing horse numbers and the quality of that horse. Not rocket science but necessary if we want to stay relevant. On current standings, 73% of all the NZ black type races are at risk of destabilisation and down grading. No-one is really talking about this in desperate terms.

That is one of the best things I have seen you write Berri. It really does sum up the situation very well. I can see why you don't get far with NZTR.

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