say no more 2,587 Report post Posted December 3, 2021 I enjoy these lay types of competition - a great risk reward comp to mess with your mind. Here's a slightly interesting but mostly useless piece of expected return analysis that guides my thinking. If you work on the assumption that the tote market is a perfect guide to each horse's probability of winning, and you assume that the tote takeout is 15% then you can work out the probability that a horse paying a certain dividend will win (and therefore the probability that it will lose). eg. a horse paying $2 to win has a 42.5% chance of winning and a 57.5% chance of losing. Multiplying the win probability by the points earned (based on 100/dividend) and adding to this to the loss probability x -50, you can calculate an expected return for each different win dividend. Expected return is the points you would expect to earn in the long run if you chose horses paying that dividend. The expected return for a horse paying $2 is 7.5 points. The expected return rises as the dividend goes above $2 but peaks when the dividend reaches $2.90 or $3 - expected return of 9.72 points. The expected return then declines for each increase in dividend above $3. Of course this is pretty much useless as the tote market is not perfect and expected return only plays out over a very large sample size - 18 races is not a big enough sample size for that to be the case. Good luck all - I think I'll use jockey strike rate rather than dividends as my guiding light. Thanks Scooby & Paul for the comp. Black Kirrama and Memphis3 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Idolmite 2,422 Report post Posted December 3, 2021 Although if you fluke 4 winners you are eliminated, effectively disqualified, and a 42.5% winning percentage over 18 races = 7.65 winners, so we're in trouble before we start Although there aren't too many $2 shots today. say no more 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...