RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
scooby3051

Big win in the Guineas

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11 hours ago, Baz (NZ) said:

$800,000 purchase now a GR.1 winning future Stallion. Derby written all over him.

I’d have thought his stud value would be maximized by keeping him at 1600-2000…… not too many Derby winners get much support at stud ( in Australasia ) in this modern world 

There'll be some very attractive opportunities for him late summer / autumn in Melbourne then Sydney 

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11 hours ago, poundforpound said:

I’d have thought his stud value would be maximized by keeping him at 1600-2000…… not too many Derby winners get much support at stud ( in Australasia ) in this modern world 

There'll be some very attractive opportunities for him late summer / autumn in Melbourne then Sydney 

Potentially quite true but he could win the $1,000,000 GR.1 NZ Derby for fun unless a superstar emerges between now and then?

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48 minutes ago, Baz (NZ) said:

Potentially quite true but he could win the $1,000,000 GR.1 NZ Derby for fun unless a superstar emerges between now and then?

Noted but if you win that you net $550k, however if you win the Australian Guineas you add 20 million to his stud value….now let me do the math 

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17 hours ago, poundforpound said:

Noted but if you win that you net $550k, however if you win the Australian Guineas you add 20 million to his stud value….now let me do the math 

Agree...providing he can be competitive over 1600m in Australia.

If they do bypass the NZ Derby by having a crack at the 1600m Australian Guineas or even the Randwick Guineas and failed....

A race such as the Rosehill Guineas (2000m) is a nice back up option however his stud value would potentially halve... but obviously it's still more valuable to a future Stallion than winning a NZ Derby.

As you say he needs a GR.1 victory over 1600m in Aussie initially.

Either way it's something for us to look forward to whichever path they choose to take ! 🤗

Good Luck to them! 🤞🏇

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21 hours ago, Baz (NZ) said:

Potentially quite true but he could win the $1,000,000 GR.1 NZ Derby for fun unless a superstar emerges between now and then?

Does he go right haded? He's still pretty green too, based on his Saturday win. I haven't seen any of his other races but he certainly looked good against what may prove to be a very mediocre field. Wouldn't mind owning a leg though 🤣

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18 minutes ago, scooby3051 said:

Can only beat what there is to beat..but I would be happy to be owning him right now...looks like he is a bit special but time will tell.

Yep this is true Scoob.
I would still like to see a little bit more of him here in NZ before declaring him a big chance in Australia.
Early days yet but he's off the mark nicely with a GR.1 win over 1600m in NZ.
Is he a SACRED FALLS or an EMBELLISH?...time will tell.

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1 hour ago, Baz (NZ) said:

Yep this is true Scoob.
I would still like to see a little bit more of him here in NZ before declaring him a big chance in Australia.
Early days yet but he's off the mark nicely with a GR.1 win over 1600m in NZ.
Is he a SACRED FALLS or an EMBELLISH?...time will tell.

Have you watched the replay ?

He copped two checks between the 600 and 400, one minor but one major, and to pick himself up as he did and then breeze past them suggests he might be a bit special 

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36 minutes ago, poundforpound said:

Have you watched the replay ?

He copped two checks between the 600 and 400, one minor but one major, and to pick himself up as he did and then breeze past them suggests he might be a bit special 

Little doubt he has ability considering the checks you mentioned and every time I watch the replay it looks more impressive !  🏇
Some here have mentioned the field he beat may prove to be mediocre ?
I'm not too concerned as Scooby stated earlier... you can only beat what's in front of you.
Scared Falls in my opinion beat a mediocre field and only won narrowly in doing so but not in too dissimilar fashion. As we all know he went on to win multiple Gr.1's in Australia.
Embellish on the other-hand (as history has proved) beat a much better field with a little more authority.
I've also been around long enough to know these equine enigmas can make a bloody good liar out of you at times. 🙈 😆
I do hope you're right though and he is a little bit special! 🏇



 

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Frank the form

Noverre on first start ran second to Bonny Lass. She went on to run a well beaten 3rd in the Sistema (Gp1) to Sword of State. Sword of Sate has had 4 runs in Aussie and isn't good enough to win a group race at this stage.2nd in the Sistema was On the Bubbles who went on to win the Manawatu Sires so when Bonny Lass ran 3rd in that race, she franked the form to Sword of Sate because he beat them both by 3 1/2

Next race won a 5 runner event by 1 1/2 beating Martina Diva who has yet to win a race in 12 starts

Last in 9 runner listed stakes race in 3rd race. Winner hasn't been placed in 3 starts since

Then ran third to Real Slim Tradie, who hasn't won in three starts in R74 races

Then ran second to Field of Gold who at set weights. Prior to that Field of Gold had run 3rd to Tsunami Sam (not seen since). Field of Gold subsequently ran 2nd and 3rd to Noverre beaten 1 1/2 and 2 3/4. That equates to a 1kg advantage

2nd in 2000 GNS was Meritable who is rated 80. 

At best Meritable gets 2kgs, therefore Noverre rated 90. I'd like to own him but a long way to go to be classed as a bit special

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50 minutes ago, Berri said:

Frank the form

Noverre on first start ran second to Bonny Lass. She went on to run a well beaten 3rd in the Sistema (Gp1) to Sword of State. Sword of Sate has had 4 runs in Aussie and isn't good enough to win a group race at this stage.2nd in the Sistema was On the Bubbles who went on to win the Manawatu Sires so when Bonny Lass ran 3rd in that race, she franked the form to Sword of Sate because he beat them both by 3 1/2

Next race won a 5 runner event by 1 1/2 beating Martina Diva who has yet to win a race in 12 starts

Last in 9 runner listed stakes race in 3rd race. Winner hasn't been placed in 3 starts since

Then ran third to Real Slim Tradie, who hasn't won in three starts in R74 races

Then ran second to Field of Gold who at set weights. Prior to that Field of Gold had run 3rd to Tsunami Sam (not seen since). Field of Gold subsequently ran 2nd and 3rd to Noverre beaten 1 1/2 and 2 3/4. That equates to a 1kg advantage

2nd in 2000 GNS was Meritable who is rated 80. 

At best Meritable gets 2kgs, therefore Noverre rated 90. I'd like to own him but a long way to go to be classed as a bit special

a flawed argument. you are comparing apples with oranges with bananas

there is little relevance in how it performed 9 months ago.

The run on "Saturday" was good, will probably need to find a few lengths yet to be competitive in aus but that is possible.

Frank the form of GOLDEN GOAL a one win horse out of toowoomba, should go close in a Melbourne cup I reckon!

 

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2 hours ago, Berri said:

Frank the form

Noverre on first start ran second to Bonny Lass. She went on to run a well beaten 3rd in the Sistema (Gp1) to Sword of State. Sword of Sate has had 4 runs in Aussie and isn't good enough to win a group race at this stage.2nd in the Sistema was On the Bubbles who went on to win the Manawatu Sires so when Bonny Lass ran 3rd in that race, she franked the form to Sword of Sate because he beat them both by 3 1/2

Next race won a 5 runner event by 1 1/2 beating Martina Diva who has yet to win a race in 12 starts

Last in 9 runner listed stakes race in 3rd race. Winner hasn't been placed in 3 starts since

Then ran third to Real Slim Tradie, who hasn't won in three starts in R74 races

Then ran second to Field of Gold who at set weights. Prior to that Field of Gold had run 3rd to Tsunami Sam (not seen since). Field of Gold subsequently ran 2nd and 3rd to Noverre beaten 1 1/2 and 2 3/4. That equates to a 1kg advantage

2nd in 2000 GNS was Meritable who is rated 80. 

At best Meritable gets 2kgs, therefore Noverre rated 90. I'd like to own him but a long way to go to be classed as a bit special

I did a compare and contrast with the other 1600m races on the day, on the basis of tempo and last 600’s

I’m up for a bet about his future potential, I say he’s a G1 horse if he holds his form, on both sides of the Tasman 

You decide how the bet is going to work given he’s only rated 90 by you :) 

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We'll see how he goes. I hope for all of the connections that he progresses further. I haven't been saying he isn't a good horse....merely that the race is R90 rated.

I don't subscribe that races 12 months ago aren't relevant. It provides an indication of the horse's ability as its life as a racehorse progresses. Do I think he'll win a group one in Australia? I hope so but the form is not yet there. I read the same thing each year on this site. Darci Brahma, Xtravagent, Aegon, Catalyst, Embellish, and Ugo Foscolo are a few that haven't made it in Aussie. Thankfully Jimmy Choux, Turn Me Loose and, on rain affected tracks, Sacred Falls did. 

Just an observation

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Personally I think Jamie Richards is one of the best young trainers NZ has produced in a long time..I am sure the knockers out there will say he has the cattle but a few before him have had them too and none have the record he has or is building ...First 4 today in the 1000 guineas after winning the 2000 Guineas last weekend...the juggernaut jumps keeps on continuing...well done to all concerned....lets hops NZ racing can keep him here.

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